Economic Sustainment in Attritional Warfare: A Case Study of the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict

This article presents a formal economic framework for assessing the sustainability of prolonged attritional warfare. Using the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine as a case study, the paper models the interaction between military production and consumption (losses) to evaluate the limits of state endurance under sustained conflict. The core of the analysis is a differential function of the war economy, defined as the net capacity to sustain operations over time, which is the difference between production and losses. This function is embedded within a theoretical construct that distinguishes between sustainable and unsustainable operational regimes, marked by critical thresholds of system exhaustion. Through a combination of regression analysis and symbolic modelling, the paper demonstrates how Russia’s current attritional strategy may be approaching a structural breaking point. The findings offer a conceptual and empirical basis for evaluating wartime industrial resilience and may inform strategic policy and conflict forecasting.