Analytical Support to Norwegian Long-Term Defence Planning


A major challenge in defence planning is to establish a clear audit trail between security challenges, political ambitions and the recommended force structure. This paper describes a capability- and scenario-based methodology combined with a software toolset called JDARTS that gives long term defence planners a systematic approach to create links from high level security challenges to force structure recommendations. The security challenges are represented by mission types exemplified by scenarios which give concrete requirements. These requirements are represented by capabilities which are matched against the capabilities of force structure elements. The matching is a selection process where the outcome is the cheapest set of the force structure elements that fulfil the requirements. The JDARTS-software supports this method. Even though the future is uncertain, the defence planner’s job is to help decision makers prioritize between economic constraints, national preparedness and international commitment.

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