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Scenario-based Planning of State Material Reserves: Case Study of Latvia

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Abstract:

The article deals with the issue of identifying required material reserves, also referred to as strategic or emergency reserves. These reserves are managed by state authority as part of national crisis preparedness. The article explores how scenarios can be used as a method for planning, i.e. determining adequate, realistic, and affordable material reserves. A scenario-based analysis, well proven in the defence planning domain, is identified as a method offering a high degree of analytical rigor and traceability of resulting requirements. Selected planning scenarios clearly must reflect national threat/hazard and risk assessments. They also have to reflect other important national policies, such as those governing economy, industry, health care, or environment. The illustrative conduct of the initial steps of the proposed method is demonstrated using Latvia’s security policy circumstances.
Published in Strategic Management
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Jan Stejskal, born in 1978. Graduated from the Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague (2005) where he shortly worked as a researcher. In 2006-2019, he held a number of positions at the Defence Policy and Strategy Division of the MoD. In 2012-2015, he served as a defence adviser of the Permanent Delegation of the Czech Republic to NATO, responsible for defence policy and defence planning issues. In 2018, he worked as a senior expert of the NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence in Riga. Since September 2019, he lives in Latvia and works in Latvian National Defence Academy, initially as a researcher of the Center for Security and Strategic Research, and currently in newly established Defence Technology and Innovation Center. Apart from the defence planning, societal resilience, and defence capability development issues, he also studies the Czechoslovak defence effort in the late 1930s.

 

Country: Czech Republic

01/10/2021

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1 comment

  • Comment Link Sunday, 23 January 2022 16:13 posted by Karel Kozák

    Str. 74 Plánování státních hmotných rezerv založené na scénářích: případová studiem Lotyšska

    Jan Stejskal

    LOTYŠSKO Obsáhlý článek v anglickém jazyce se na 18 stránkách zabývá problematikou státních hmotných rezerv. Řeší aktuální situaci v souvislosti s pandémií, ukazuje na problémy v materiálním zabezpečení pro ochranu obyvatelstva. Upozorňuje na úkoly ministerstva obrany a využití scénářů. Zabývá se koncepcí národní bezpečnosti, hodnotí rizika a hrozby. Článek je vhodný pro specialisty logistiky, pro ostatní poskytuje využitelné informace, zejména využití scénářů.

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