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Approaches to Scenario Development


The article deals with the issue of methodological approach to scenario development. This paper describes the methods and techniques used in scenarios development both in civilian sphere and within NATO and the EU, with an emphasis on their role in the military capability development process of the armed forces. The article defines the usual scenario construction process and describes the location and differences of generic and specific planning situations. In addition, the principles necessary to create quality scenarios are described here. The conclusion of the article deals with proposals focused on the elaboration of a methodology for scenario building in the Czech Armed Forces as part of the project "Strategic Alternatives to the Construction and Development of the Czech Armed Forces", which is being elaborated at the Center for Security and Military and Strategic Studies of the University of Defense in Brno.

Jan Gireth, PhD., (Colonel retired), born in 1956. A graduate of the Military Command and Technical College Martin and also the Command and Staff Military Postgraduate Study of the Military Academy. He worked in the field of engineers troops in command and staff positions, at Engineer Department of Military Academy Brno, in international environment at SHAPE (Belgium) and ACT Norfolk (USA), at General Staff in Prague. He is currently working at the CBVSS in Brno, where he deals with the command and control, operations planning, and methodology of scenario development.

Country: Czech Republic


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