Analytical Thinking and Team Leadership in Intelligence Analysis


This paper deals with aspects of intelligence analysis that very often influence the quality of intelligence information utilized by end users. Such analysis requires not only analytical thinking, but also specific experiences of all personnel exploiting collected information. The same body of information may result in multiple analytic products, with different security classifications, time scales, and level of detail. The result of this process is an analytical product – evaluation without any idle speculation and pseudo prophecy. Evaluation and interpretation must describe up-to-date conditions and demonstrate the clusters of future images with alternative developments. Reasonable evaluation reduces uncertainty and makes user's decision easier. At the end the author concentrates on rules of analytical team control and management.

Doc. Ing. Oldřich Horák, CSc., COL (Ret.), born in 1943. He graduated the Higher Military School in Vyškov and Military Academy in Brno, in the intelligence field. He acted as a chef of intelligence at the Panzer Division, later as the Chief Intelligence Information Group at the 4th Army Headquarters. Since 1985, he was teaching at the Faculty of Command at the Military Academy in Brno. From 1989 to 1998 he was a head of the Military Intelligence Department and in period of 2004 - 2006 he worked as a lecturer at the Institute of Operational and Tactical Studies and at the Faculty of Military Technology of the University of Defense in Brno. He currently works at the Department of Military Management and Tactics of the Faculty of Economics and Management.


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