Abstract:

The article points out the altered role of intelligence and counterintelligence under the conditions of new security threats and relevant problems of intelligence analysis. Authors compare the theories of the orthodox and revisionist intelligence schools dealing with the detection of surprise attacks and finally outlines solutions related to the training of intelligence analytics. Orthodox views are as follows: surprising attacks are inevitable, such attacks will succeed as they are unpredictable, complex and sophisticated; reformists say that too much attention is paid to various failures, there are many cases in which intelligence prevention was successful. Threat analyses are very complicated; hints are not clear, ambiguous. New threats must be examined and eliminated with cooperation with other force branches, police, integrated rescue system, and others. Last but not least, there is indispensable role of preparation and schooling of intelligence officers.