Experiment of Using Structured Techniques in Intelligence Analysis

Abstract:

Research into the use of structured analytical techniques has shown that analysts use specific structured techniques to achieve better analysis results than using traditional intuitive approaches. The experiment was based on solving the analytical tasks of two intelligence scenarios in a set of 32 people. To verify the null hypothesis, a chi-square test of independence was performed at a 5% significance level. In the control/intuitive and experimental/structured technique groups, responses were evaluated in four criteria, in an overall qualitative intelligence analysis, in rank corps, depending on the time of service and education. The number of correct answers was the highest in the experimental group when dealing with the intelligence analysis criteria for both scenarios. Improved analysis of the experimental group in the second scenario solution was statistically significant. The null hypothesis, using structured methodology improves qualitative intelligence analysis, is not rejected. In the experiment, other test criteria are below than the critical value. The results of the research have shown that the success of the problem solution is influenced by the correct use of the Hypothesis Testing technique. The use of structured techniques depends on the level of knowledge and the type of intelligence problem. At the same time, the conduct of research has shown the influence of analysts' cognitive biases.

Jozef VOJTEK, born in 1961. He is graduated from the High Military School of Ground Forces in Vyškov (1983). After completing a postgraduate study at the Military Academy in Brno (1992), he worked in the intelligence staffs: the Headquarters of the 4th Rapid Deployment Brigade, the Headquarters of the 1st Mechanized Division and the Ministry of Defence. Since 2016 he is a member of academic staff at the Faculty of Military Leadership of the University of Defence, in his work he is dealing with the issue of intelligence and intelligence analysis. Currently, he is studying Doctoral Degree Programme.

18/03/2019

1 comment

  • Comment Link Tuesday, 14 January 2020 17:05 posted by Karel Kozák

    Str. 32 Experiment využití strukturovaných technik ve zpravodajské analýze
    Jozef Vojtek
    Článek v českém jazyce se na 11 stránkách, doplněných tabulkou a grafy, zabývá možnostmi využití strukturovaných zpravodajských technik (způsobů činnosti). Autor zvolil formu předvedení průběhu experimentu v této oblasti konaném na Universitě obrany v Brně.
    Grafy zobrazují výsledky získané při řešení stanovených úkolů. Obsah článku je vysoce teoretický, vhodný pro zpravodajské odbornosti, včetně potřeby znalostí používání statistických údajů. Pro běžného uživatele v podstatě nepřináší využitelné informace.
    K terminologii.
    Str. 37 Na osmém řádku je věta, začínající První scénář. Upravit pořadí slov.

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