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This article describes the basic terms used in prognostics (future studies, forecasting the future, prognosis, prediction, expert) and introduces selected prognostic methods and techniques which could be applied in security area (brainstorming, focus group, trend extrapolation, Delphi method, scenarios etc.). The basic classifications and prognosis typologies are mentioned as well. Particular phases of prognosis making are described too. For the Czech security community the prognosis making has an important potential whose outcomes (of particular surveys) should be manifest in following years. This text has only tried to outline selected methods and techniques for their potential application.

The article is a creative elaboration and proposal for optimization of selected activities of the human resources management process in the Ministry of Defense, which have a fundamental influence on achieving the set goals of personnel policy of the Ministry of Defense. The article builds on the analysis of the "status quo" of the human resource management in the Ministry of Defense, carried out with the help of dimensional and stakeholder analysis, sector analysis PESTLE-M, and questionnaire survey with a sample of officers (students of career courses KVD and KGŠ). It also uses the results of capability-based scenario, on which a prediction of the future needs of personnel and financial resources is calculated and demonstrated. For selected activities of the human resources management process their possible content is discussed, as well as the effects (or the necessity to set them accordingly) of internal and external process controllers.

The article concerns the issue of arson attacks in Israel.The issue of terrorism in Israel is quite broad, given that it is a very common phenomenon here and Israel deals with terrorism on a daily basis. The paper therefore focuses on incendiary balloons, a weapon that repeatedly caused fires around the Gaza Strip between 2018-2023. It examines their history, their design, outlines the possibilities of their elimination, the advantages and disadvantages of possible technical solutions, and a reflection on the future of their usage.

The main topic and focus of this article is to identify the most relevant indicators of the rise of religious extremism as an important cause of armed conflicts. A religiously motivated conflict is a relevant topic in modern security studies and research. Conflict prevention using the early-warning indicators identified in this article might be interesting for the security expert community. In the article chosen methodology is available with the recommendation to following research in the examined field.

The article is based on a study carried out as part of the Long-Term Organizational Development Plan project by the Center for Security and Military-Strategic Studies of the University of Defense entitled "Armed Conflict". As part of the study, the issue of strategic surprise was analyzed and assessed, the aim of which was to find causal mechanisms and connections between the security of state defense and the phenomenon of surprise in the conditions of the 21st century. The article deals with the issue of surprise and its impact on state defense security. It describes strategic surprise as a principled aspect with implications and impacts on state defense. It examines the issue of surprise as a principle of military art in the context of contemporary strategic thinking.

The article presents selected functionalities of intelligence support in the Czech Armed Forces, which are addressed in the context of opportunities and challenges of the future operating environment. Its aim is to formulate, in parallel reflection with the current approaches of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the possibilities of implementing intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and electromagnetic warfare in national conditions. Military practice is presented with a direction on how to respond to changes in the nature of the operational environment, including changes in the physical and non-physical domains of the battlespace to which all components of modern military forces must adapt while maintaining the necessary interoperability. The article is a response to differing and often not entirely correct understandings of the issue, which can be found even among specialists. It summarizes what has been learned so far and suggests where the discussed functionalities should go.

The guarantee of national defense and the fulfillment of commitments to Allies is highly dependent on its financial source security. The economic recession, which began in 2008 in the USA, negatively affected public budgets. This recession was one of the causes of the reduction of planned defense spendings in the Czech Republic. This reduction caused the postponement of acquisitions, which were to be implemented both with regard to commitments to coalition partners and with regard to maintaining their own defense capabilities. Nowadays, current internal debt is still increasing due to neglecting inflation of military equipment, which is higher than inflation of ordinary goods. Currently, the defense ability is also affected by the pandemic of Covid-19, which caused a slowdown in GDP growth and public spending growth. For this reason, it has been several times postponed the commitment to achieve a rate of 2% of military expenditure of GDP by 2024 and the current plan to achieve it in 2027 is also endangered.

Government expenditures allocated for defence are one of the categories comparable between countries to observe and analyse long-term trends. The paper compares the defence budgets of the USA and the Russian Federation between 2000 to 2019 with the aim to analyse potential causes of fluctuations in defence spending. The purpose of the paper is to demonstrate that military budgets are dependent on a combination of various factors such as current domestic policy, the economic cycle and global security and economic issues. The work uses significant as historical milestones to analyses their impacts on the dependent variable of military budget. As these, Operation Enduring Freedom (2001), Iraq war (2003), the inauguration of the US Presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump, the economic crisis (2007-2008), the Russian currency crisis (2014) and the Russian annexation of Crimea (2014) were identified.

This article examines whether Turkey is ready for a full-scale military conflict with Bashar Al-Assad's Syria. It draws from an adaptation of Clausewitz's concept of three resources that a state must possess to be able to win a war: the fighting forces proper, popular support, and its allies. Turkey is at a significant disadvantage when it comes to its air force and air defense capabilities. Should a major confrontation erupt, Turkey would not be guaranteed to be able to control the relevant air space. Turkish citizens do not favor seeing their country in a foreign quagmire. Despite myriad differences, Turkey it is still deeply embedded within NATO, and its strategic interests do not differ from those of its strategic allies. Turkey also cannot afford to risk an open military conflict with Russia. The article concludes that Turkey is politically and militarily not capable of fighting a full-scale war in Syria.

Following article deals with the Kurdish diaspora in Middle-Europe at the background of current conflict with so called Islamic State. Kurds are one of the main actors of this strong regional conflict and their diaspora in Germany and Austria are forced to react to such a situation. The text is focused not only on actual situation in Syria and Iraq, but mainly on Kurdish reaction towards it. Not only for Czech reader there is interesting part dealing with Kurdish community in Czech Republic, although this diaspora is not as numerous and strong as in Germany or Austria. One of the important outcomes of the article is an attempt to predict future scenarios of Kurds situation development. But it is necessary to mention the high dynamics of conflict with Islamic State complicates any such an attempt of prediction.

The main goal of this article is to discuss in the context of selected security intentions the world peace as an idealistic phenomenon, which is determined by many factors in the current dynamically changing environment. The intention is not to compare individual philosophical theories, but to provide selected synthetic security indicators that can help measure the state of the security environment. On the basis of these arguments, we can observe a downward trend in the rate represented, also linked to an increase in the activities of terrorist groups and generally transnational threats. The article also highlights the current relatively rigid role of the UN in relation to global peace. The international community and world peace are particularly influenced by the mutual relations and the rivalry of the superpowers. In future conflicts, the transition from the physical form of the battlefield to the imaginary platform, represented mainly by cyber space, will be more evident.

The aim of the text is to present the approach to assessing the military potential of the state as well as the will or possibilities to be used to achieve national strategic interests or power objectives. This approach is methodologically based on the sectoral analysis of the state's power potential and its possible projections in the construction and use of armed forces. The described and used approach in the Ministry of Defence of the Czech Republic is applied to the current Russian Federation and its military or power activities

The article provides partial results of the research Strategic Analysis Methods applicable within the Defence Department of the Czech Republic. This research addresses a low level of use of strategic analysis methods in the development of strategic and conceptual documents of the department. In the years 2017 and 2018, interviews with the processors of these documents were carried out and the problems related to the use of strategic analysis methods in sector planning were analysed. In particular, the article analyses the content and utilization process of stakeholder analysis method, SWOT analysis, future scenarios, benchmarking and GAP analysis.

The author presents the results of the research in the field of defining the competencies for military professionals in command and control in military operations. The main purpose of the article is to familiarize the readers with the proposal of the recommendations for implementing an integrated approach to defining the competencies needed for military personnel within the Ministry of Defense of the Czech Republic. On the basis of the analysis of the national strategic documents, analysis of the system of management of educational and training activities and evaluation of the current competency model for the members of the Czech Armed Forces, the recommendations were drawn up to introduce a conceptual approach to defining the competencies for military personnel. This set of proposed measures provides a baseline for applying the competency model as a human resource management tool.

The work deals with the issue of engineer information, which is necessary for the planning of water crossing, and which can facilitate and speed up the proces of operation planning with the assistance of the staff members of engineer specialization. At present (2019) there is no application software development of engineer support tasks (hereinafter APV ŽEN) within the engineer command and control subsystem AČR, which would take into account the problem of water crossing by troops. The aim of the article is: to analyze the gathering of engineer information for water crossing and to describe it on a specific example of the Morava river, to identify the possibilities of water crossing by forces of AČR, to propose a map base for APV ŽEN, which will be supplemented by engineer information from Povodí s.p. and Motorway and Highway Directorate (hereinafter ŘSD) and to define measures that will support the availability of engineer information in water crossing.

The article deals with the evaluation of the state of oil security in the Czech Republic and measures, which should be taken to increase it. The attention is payed to the importance of the crude oil in the energy mix of the Czech Republic, its oil dependency and international cooperation in the area of oil security. Further, it focuses on the emergency stocks of the crude oil and petroleum products and to their use and to the oil demand restraint measures.

Implementation of project management is a step by which the organization declares that it wants to offer unique products in the appropriate quality. Just as a newly implemented process to an organization is not always perfect and needs to be constantly improved. Consequently, the project management implemented in the organization needs to be improved. The article presents the main problems identified by the members of the project management courses, which took place at the University of Defense in Brno in period 2011 - 2018. The authors of the article, based on the analysis of the findings, concluded that problems identified in the Ministry of Defence of the Czech Republic are solvable and present possible approaches to the solution.

This article aims to reflect a digression into the history of selected strategic documents, which processed the Ministry of Defence or was in the processing involved - in connection to the planning of acquisitions. The ambition of the article is not a comprehensive evaluation process, but only the selected aspects. After many years of decreasing Czech defence budget, is here the opposite situation. In connection with the new situation it is necessary to rethink the current approach to this topic; to ensure maximal security of the Czech Republic and in a figurative sense NATO and the European Union also. The fact, that the Czech strategy document was among the best in the EU, does not mean that defence spending is automatically efficient.

The paper deals with the principle of legality during putting in practice of Military police support to allied armed forces in the Host nation Support operation on the Czech Republic territory. Security of sending nation armed forces weaknesses have been identified on the base of analysis of the issue current state supplemented by the legal framework assessment. Suggestions, for expert discussion of Military police authority change, are in the last chapter.

The paper deals with the issue of the purpose, creation and practical use of scenarios during operational concepts development. The scenar- ios reflect the fundamental characteristics of the environment in which the military missions will be conducted in the next 15-20 years. The paper defines the type of scenarios useful for creation of operational concepts and requirements that must be met for a successful process of scenarios development. Further, it describes the process of scenarios development, the main risks associated with this process while suggesting the possibility of reducing the rate of those risks.

This article describes the doctrinal determination and definitions of the term Actionable Intelligence and the impact of this specific intelligence concepton commander's decision-making process. The part of this report deals with the position of Actionable Intelligence in intelligence branch, concretely in connection with the intelligence disciplines and particular stages within intelligence cycle. There is also the accentuation of interconnection to the importance of intelligence information sharing, early warning systems and force protection on tactical level. The next part of this article is focused on the impact of intelligence support on commander's decision-making processes.

The topic of this essay is an insight into the interrelations of the economic analysis of armed conflict. The author tries to explain its substance and importance and at the same time he warns against the difficulties with its implementation. Backed by several studies, we must conclude that there is a lot of confusion in terminology we use. It is therefore proposed to apply cost-benefit analysis, so that we could create a unified terminology and simultaneously to use this analysis to present armed conflict economy in terms of overall expenses vs. likely benefits aroused by respective armed warfare.

This paper aims to enrich professional discussion on future shape of the Armed Forces of the Czech Republic (AFCR) and is linked to the preceding research and publishing activities of members of the Centre for Security and Military Strategic Studies (CBVSS) at the University of Defence. In its first part, it performs a historical tour to the year 2012 and highlights the reasons that the former leadership of the ACR led to the start of construction work on the concept of AFCR (KVAČR). Briefly describes the interconnection and the hierarchy of individual conceptual and strategic documents, the procedure works on them and summarizes the arguments supporting the need of KVAČR as such. The next section brings potential methodological approaches to the preparation of this document, using the method of the "9S", including practical examples, it renumbers basic strategic assumptions and priorities in various stages, bordered by years 2020 and 2025 as a prerequisite for formulating strategies for achieving this specific goal. Within the document, there is a short excursion into the field of long-term planning for major areas of skills, using their description of DOTMLPFI functional areas, including an example of using this methodology in project preparation of program funding. The recommendations formulated in the article are based on the authors' best experiences with the preparation of documents of a similar type in the years 2003-2013, the recommendations of experts from the broader security community of the Czech Republic, and recommendations of the Alliance. As such, it has been passed to the KVAČR processors at level of the General Staff of AFCR over the years 2013-2014.

The article deals with the contemporary form of terrorism, introduces selected issues and discusses the psychology of terrorism. Various forms and typologies of contemporary terrorism which occurs in different geographical and cultural areas and uses large scale of methods and tactical and strategic approaches are introduced as well.The main goal of this article is to describe psychological aspects of terrorism with the emphasis on the motivation and group dynamics of terrorist organizations. The staircase metaphor which allows thinking about the process of recruitment of terrorists is introduced as well. The article derives especially from theoretical socio-psychological and political findings.

Presented text mainly deals with the issue of long-term planning in the department of the Ministry of Defence (MOD) of the Czech Republic. The issue is discussed at many levels, taking into account economic and other operational factors that are very important for adequate functioning of the department. Attention is focused both on theoretical considerations, and practical implications of proper planning.

Thisarticledeals withanalysis ofthemagazineDabiq.Thismagazineis published by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and it serves to Jihadist propaganda in English language. The content analysis is used. Thematic fields (with qualitative analysis) and important terms (with term freqency analysis). Authors identified tree main themes of the Dabiq magazine - religion, establishing of the Caliphate and its functions and military operations of the ISIS. The conceptualization of the enemies from the point of view of the ISIS.

The article is related to the building process of Capabilities Development Concept of Military Police (MP) in Ministry of Defence environment. With regards to the specific status of MP within Ministry of defence and with regards to diversity of assigned tasks Capabilities Development Concept of MP is finally hybrid document, containing elements of concept, strategy and long-term development intent. This is positive fact based on unique status of this branch of arms. The author who is actively influencing the proces of concept building is describing his recommendations and observations which might be convenient also for those readers who are not Military Police workers.

The article analyses the Host Nation Support (HNS) planning process in five separate phases according to the NATO procedures. The author emphasizes the importance, purpose and result of every planning stage. The main objective of the article is to apply general rules to the concrete examples of international air forces exercises. The author further identifies his comprehension of HNS formed in the specific conditions of the 22th Helicopter Base. The logistic planning process analysis is based on the experience from exercises Ramstein Rover and Ample Strike held in the period of 2012-2014. The paper is focused on exercises preparatory stages that create the basis for a successful accomplishment of the executive part. The results of the article present the trend of planning responsibility delegation to the tactical level and define the specifics of adapted planning process. The author's contribution may be used as a lead for the future application of the HNS concept.

In fact, financial resources together with human and material resources belong to the category of "defence resources". They hold a special position in defence system as financial resources are the multiplier of other sources, forming background for the effort of military commanders and leaders. This situation is caused by one simple fact: without the existence of financial resources there is no way how to pay for both human and material assets. This study describes present conditions and prospects of economical development in the word, as well as in the Czech Republic, during the period from 2000 to 2009. The article further analyses development of armed forces financial requirements, funding trends, and identifies factors that are going to determinate future military expenditures.