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The ability to deliver information about an incident, long time before it has happened, puts intelligence analysts into the very first line of fight against the threat of terrorism, extremism, proliferation, or activities of alien services. The article deals with some aspects of intelligence research that often influence the value of final reports, presented to their consumers. It analyses intelligence database designated for its end users. It simultaneously reflects the question of indications and warnings against opponent's surprise attacks. Last but not least, the purpose of this article is both to attract the readers´ attention to this theme and also to start debate on the methods of predictions of future threats, drawn up by analysts´ teams, as their reports are not always suitably recognized by their end users.

The article analyzes several key conclusions of US National Intelligence Council's study "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds", published in December 2012. Primarily it focuses on: the diffusion of global power influencing political, economic and security development on both global and regional scales; rising importance of the Asia-Pacific region for global economy and security; Sino-American security relations; the role that the United States and Europe should be played in the changing geopolitical reality. The conclusions offer the author's own interpretation of certain development trajectories, based on his earlier published monographs, studies and articles.

On the one hand, Russia is among the countries which often criticize the Western-led military intervention. On the other hand, in the last twenty years, Russia has repeatedly approved using military force by the West against an individual state, endorsed by the United National Security Council. The main purpose of this article is therefore to describe and analyse Russian position towards four Western military interventions 1999-2011. Specifically, the article is focused on two military interventions without UN Security Council mandates (Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in 1999 and Iraq in 2003), the intervention with the expanded UN Security Council resolution (Afghanistan 2001) and the military intervention that was partially approved by the UN Security Council resolutions (Libya 2011).

The article deals with the reasons why NATO is interested in energy security and main tasks which Alliance fulfils in this area. A special attention is paid to the energy dependence of the European member states of the Alliance, the increase of awareness about energy security, critical energy infrastructure protection and energy efficiency in the armed forces. The author elaborates the implementation of the energy security issues into the Alliance main activities, education and training in the field of energy security and cooperation with partner countries, other international organizations and private sector.

The article is available only in the Czech language. For more information please contact editors.

The re-election of Barrack Obama implies that the President preferring political solutions to military ones will have remained for the next four years in the White House. As far U. S. strategy culture is concerned, without doubts American armed forces are going to be prepared to be modern, strong, agile and capable to meet the U.S. National Security strategy goals whatever and wherever they might be. Simultaneously, Obama´s programme for his second term presupposes to close down several military bases all around the world, together with reductions in the size of forces, manpower. Only the most important will be preserved. The further development will be therefore predestined by necessary quantitative reductions, but at the same time by qualitative updating American armed forces, and by the stress on power projection capabilities to take an active approach to counter any threats worldwide.

The period of the beginning of the 21st century is typical for the situation characterized by minimization of a global conflict and by decreasing risks of a direct aggression among neighbouring countries. Nonetheless, the occurrence and permanent existence of mass destruction weapons and industrial accidents caused by human beings, natural disasters produced by leakages of toxic industrial materials, are considered as a global problem that determinates not only the activities of national armies, but also activities of civil population. The danger of WMD deployment is especially high at time of danger, when forces are to be used or misused, and terrorist activities might multiply in some world's regions, even in technologically underdeveloped countries.

Operation Serval (French: Opération Serval) is an ongoing French military operation in the Republic of Mali, West Africa. The aim of the operation is to oust Islamic militants in the north of Mali, who had begun a push into the centre of Mali. Operation Serval follows the Security Council Resolution 2085 of 20 December 2012. The operation is named after the medium-sized African wildcat species Serval. The author analyzes historic and geopolitical context, including activities of AQMI terrorists. The Serval Operation is of dissymmetric character. At the rear of advancing French troops some groups of rebels and terrorist stayed to make acts of sabotage. According to the author it is necessary to prevent from long-term involving into the conflict, among others, as French territory or territories of other countries might become a target of terrorist attacks.

The article deals with contemporary security situation in the Sinai Peninsula. Attention is paid to certain aspects that form the local negative trends in security developments and their mutual interconnection, as a part of social movements after the events of the so-called Arab Spring and the consequences of the Egyptian Lotus Revolution that have a cardinal influence for both the deployments of Egyptian Army and the security sector in this territory. The opening part of this article is a brief historical excursion into the peace agreement between Egypt and Israel that arranges the special status of the Sinai as a demilitarized area and the adjustment of social-economic reality of the Bedouin population performing decisive influence for described situation.

The article defines extremisms and terrorism as eventual destabilizing moments in society. The paper decomposes possible reasons and grounds of their manifestation, the authors point out that certain signs indicate the penetration of extremisms and terrorism into armed forces structures and civil service, by means of concrete persons. At the end they propose general rules and approaches to keep up this topical phenomenon of the present day.

Europe is a maritime continent whose economic concerns and security could be backed only by the power of navy forces. The Czech Republic is not a maritime state, but it is a member country of both NATO and the EU, it participates in the formation of common security policy. Czech soldiers could take part in combined joint military operations, where one of forces is also a Navy. Dozens of Czech citizens are employed in common international institutes and staffs; they all need a broader view, including the knowledge of Integrated European Naval Strategy. Their activities promote the status of the Czech Republic at international level.
This contribution contextually explores European space and its naval power. It introduces naval forces projection of European national navies, the bulk of which best respond to current security issues, along with decisions of the national governments of the EU and NATO member states. The article also dedicates extensive attention to the Russian naval strategy.

On January 11, 2013, the French army opened the military operation with the aim to halt the progress of Islamist armed groups, controlling north of Mali. The factual impulses for intervention were endangered pipelines in Algeria, Madgaz, MEG, Trans Mediterranean, and Greenstream. Generally, the intervention was justified by several UN Security Council Resolutions. Even the military units of the Army of the Czech Republic have taken part in the Operation, backed by Resolution 2071, and at the request of Mali government. The author familiarizes readers with roots of instability in this region and actual security state of affairs. Finally he presents several scenarios of subsequent possible developments.

The motivation and professional values of soldiers involved in Other People's Wars is one of the most important knowledge necessary for effective command and control. Those were main reasons for an extensive questionnaire survey among soldiers, deployed in PRT ISAF in 2010-2011. One of the key topics was motivation to leave for Afghanistan, professional expectations and evaluations of external and internal environment of the mission. The purpose of this paper is to present the basic outlines of values of today's Czech soldiers, their professional motives and expectations. The results are interpreted in the context of Moskos' theory of the contradiction between institutional and occupational orientations of present armed forces and adapted to the actual social and political state of affairs.

Suicide bombing represents a low-cost, low-tech weapon that is readily available, requires little training, leaves little forensic trace, and strikes fear into the general population. Almost exclusively, suicide bombers emanate from distinct ethnicities and religions; furthermore, recent history indicates that they come from the Arab/Muslim or East Asian cultures. As important as the suicide bombers are the activists and sympathizers who offer them support and comfort. These activists may recoil from committing acts of violence themselves but may sympathize with those who do, and offer moral and material support. This article explores the psychosocial aspects and methods of suicide bombers in general, but with particular focus on those operating in Palestine, Moscow (Chechen guerrillas, 2002), Singar (Iraq 2007).

The identification of security threats and subsequent risks is the base on which we form security and military strategies. It is also the core of all security scenarios. That's why we must welcome all books dealing with futurology predictions, like The Cognition of Future as a Challenge by Martin Potůček at al, Karolinum, Charles University. He summarizes knowledge and experiences done by CESES, the only scholarly lab dealing systematically with drafting up visions and strategies the Czech state might be confronted with. The CESES is a Czech acronym, which stands for the Centre for Social and Economic Strategies, at the Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague.

NSIP-NATO Security and Investment Programme presents an outstanding field of cooperation among Alliance nations and are the fundamental pillar for planning their common defence. The programme serves for securing necessary sources for investments in building, renovation and establishing air and navy bases, strategic depots, core radar systems, and the like. It also supports individual national commands. The article shortly summarizes the history of NSIP, cites examples of its implementation and formulates proposals how to better utilize common sources of this programme. The Czech Republic belongs among states that still enjoy benefits from common funds, particularly in the connection with the building backbone NATO airports. The genuine contributors are Canada, the U.S., and Belgium; at the head of benefit states are Turkey, Greece, and Portugal. It is recommended for Czech representatives at the HQ Allied Command Transformation to increase number of them in decisionmaking staff elements to prevent administrative complications with allocation of approved investments.

The article deals with using of simulation technology for training commanders and staffs in new types of operations. It summaries the overall development in the area, occurred since the establishment of the Center of Simulation and Training Technologies. There are presented turning points in training on simulators, i. e. requirements for combat in urban area, special operations of small units, of ground forces interaction with supporting units, the use of command and control systems and the cooperation between the military and rescue workers. It also points to the new requirements in the fields of training and shows possible ways of their solution. The second part deals with problems of NEC and its implementation into simulation systems. The article presents the results of SIMNEC defence research and its contribution to the future expansion of the capabilities of tactical simulator.

In the middle of Obama's first presidency, several waves of criticism turned up. According to some analysts, Barrack Obama's first presidency introduces the beginning of new world's era, the so-called "post-ethnical society". The latest discussions prove that the United States have been no longer the only world's superpower, they will remain in the position of world's leader, but still aregoing to substantionally influence global arrangement. Unsuccessful and protracted wars, reflecting serious economic depression with successive debts, effect military budget cuts, even though the American Armed forces are still powerful, potent and mighty power, all around the world, influencing word's events as a stabilising force. The study depicts political and security layout against American domestic political background.

The aim of this article is to provide comparison of the main indicators of military power among the individual EU countries, between the EU in total and the U.S., and the comparison of the world's biggest military powers. Current evolvement of changes in military power indicates the shift of the centre of gravity aiming prevailingly eastward towards raising and growing economical powers. Due to the differences of various input data, multiple information sources used for comparison are significantly different. In addition, it is difficult to get them for some isolated countries, the results of which are sometimes only estimated. The study also includes information on the main importers and exporters of the military equipment, as well as the estimation of future trends.

Developing Czech national defence system is based on long-term predictions of potential security threatsandplanningofresourcesavailablefordefence, including defence spending plans. This paper analyses the issue of current value of defence expenditures. It attempts to give an answer to the question whether defence requires a specific price index or if common civilian indicators like GDP deflator or consumer price index can be used in defence.

This paper depicts the position of the Czech President as the head of state and the commander-in-chief of the Czech Armed Forces, including his special relation to Defence Minister who actually runs defence department. The President is superior to all members of armed forces of the Czech Republic; the Chief of General Staff is superior to all members of the Army of the Czech Republic.The President formally and officially controls all the military organizations in a country. But we have no tradition of independent of armed deployment in war conflicts. Our forces operated always as a part of higher multinational coalitions, in joined combined groupings, operationally subordinated to friendly, but alien highest command.

Studies of the importance of culture have gained greater attention in the post-Cold War era. In present world, there are many fenomena that can't be explained in terms of neorealism. There is the consensus in national security policy studies that culture may significantly affect grand strategy and state behaviour. It limits behavioural choices, from which we could derive predictions about our strategic choice. This study is based among others upon Johnston's strategic culture concept related to three generations. The study is divided into five parts: at first the author introduces general concept of strategic culture, the second, third and fourth parts correspond to individual generations. In closing part the author explains his own understanding to this concept.

The purpose of this paper is to define cyberterrorism phenomenon with the use of available documents, reports, and expert texts, and to evaluate its role and occurrence in contemporary world's events. The cyberterrorism is very often discussed nowadays, but there is a total lack of any consensus as far as a precision definition is concerned. The critique of current state is summarized at the end of the final chapter, describing leading causes of present situation, i.e. a situation when the cyberterrorism is discussed, politicised, all repeatedly underline its dangerousness, but in practice no cyber attract has occurred.

Its own nuclear program is an important instrument of Iran's domestic and foreign policy. In foreign policy it is used for promotion of its regional interests and it also serves as a guarantee against foreign actor's interference in Iranian domestic affairs. So far, the negotiations between Iran and the international community have not brought about any tangible results. Among other reasons, there are different expectations of both parties. The international community is ready to lift sanctions, supposing Iran accepts the UN resolutions. Iran, by contrast, demands to be recognized as an internationally recognized regional power, with legitimate rights and interests.

This extended essay is based upon various sources, among others on May 2010 President Obama's speech at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, where President Obama described his national security objectives. The highest priorities of U.S. national security are the safety of Americans at home and abroad and achieving a peaceful, stable world through global cooperation despite a flawed international system. The Obama's security strategy relies heavily on diplomacy and engagement, economic development and other methods of influence, along with U.S. military capabilities with global reach and unsurpassed resources. As we face multiple threats, from nations, non-state actors and failed states, America will maintain the military superiority that has secured country, and underpinned global security, for decades. The security strategy is global, and identifies an array of real or potential security challenges that include: countering violent extremism and insurgency; stopping the spread of nuclear weapons and securing nuclear materials, resolving and preventing conflict; and reducing destabilizing risks to economic interdependence.

This article presents a case study dealing with the system of logistical support at Kyjov town. This kind of support demands a full evacuation of all citizens, ensuring emergency housing and sustenance both deployed persons from integrated rescue corps and evacuated persons. The result of this study is a proposal to update the crisis plan of Kyjov.

The final extended deadline, established by the Chemical Weapons Convention for the destruction of chemical weapons, passed in 2012. Despite all efforts and enormous amount of funds, the goal to destroy all chemical weapons within this date has not been achieved. The authors enumerate states that this fulfilled this resolution and others that this task did not accomplished, for some reasons. According to the destruction plans, the Russian Federation should complete the destruction by the end of 2015, Libya by the end of 2016, and the United States not until September 2023.

The prerequisite of effectivity of people training for the emergencies lies on their timely and high-guality preparation. At present, in the Czech Republic, we prepare defence-training concept for school youth protection under normal risks or emergencies. But it was only in the school year 2012-2013 that more conceptually comprehensive preparation has been introduced, of more binding character, at least in elementary schools, because after the abolition of Act on Military Education in 1991, this sort of preparation is not supported by a special law.

This article is discussing the role of the Internet in the Islamic terrorist movement. It describes how the nature of the Internet provides the perfect medium for terrorism. Major terrorist organizations now have their own production capability, ranging from video capture, to video editing, to distribution, but, these organizations also have an advanced understanding of the concepts of influence, information warfare, and the power of targeted messages. This is further highlighted by the fact that among al Qaeda's original organizational structure was a committee dedicated to publicity and the media. The internet plays the role as a means of propaganda for recruitment and fund-raising, shaping public opinion in the Muslim world, terrorist training and instruction, operational planning for attacks, communication and open source information.

The deteriorating situation in the Afghanistan region poses a security threat not just to the United States, but to every single nation. It was from that remote area of the world that Al Qai'da plotted 9/11 and subsequent attacks in Europe and elsewhere. Reading news about Afghanistan today gives rise to the question why the situation in this country is such as now really is. Ordinary mass media depict the country often in a confusing manner: Afghanistan as "a country, full of terrorists and uneducated barbarians, longing to destroy western civilization and kill". The author describes bad security situation which presents problem for both coalition soldiers and local Afghanistan population. At the same time we must realize that involved soldiers are exposed every day to asymmetric enemy forces, they stand face to face to mortar danger that could be hidden in for example in every car passing by.

The article deals with the evaluation of military expenditures of European Union's four selected countries in the period of 2001-2008. Among examined countries belong the Czech Republic, Austria, Slovakia and Slovenia. The term military expenditures is used by many users, so the article defines first this term and also sources from which the authoress collected data for evaluation. The main source of statistical data about military expenditures is the Stockholm international institute, namely its research yearbooks.