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Defense planning and research has to engage with questions about future developments quite often. Solutions to these questions tend to be hazy due to (I) the missing data, or due to (II) the necessity to build long-term prognoses, which are - by their very nature - only remotely related to any current or historical empirical cases. Under these conditions counterfactuals and their specific - future- oriented - form: scenarios, offer a valuable tool. Nevertheless, counterfactuals and scenarios, due to their limited empirical embeddedness, demand explicit and rigorous application of a theory. The article highlights often overlooked resemblance of scenarios and counterfactuals and derives from this fact some methodological implications for scenario building enterprise. Beyond that, it aims at demonstrating possible contributions as well as obstacles inherent for the use of scenarios and counterfactuals in our defense policy debates.

Presented text mainly deals with the issue of long-term planning in the department of the Ministry of Defence (MOD) of the Czech Republic. The issue is discussed at many levels, taking into account economic and other operational factors that are very important for adequate functioning of the department. Attention is focused both on theoretical considerations, and practical implications of proper planning.

The author analyses the impact of the Order of the MOD (1/2007) on language training within the Czech Armed Forces. He examines the situation before and after the publication of the said order and makes recommendations how to optimize the system. He supports his recommendations by empirical data gathered in the preceding eight months at the DLI- Defence Language Institute (ÚJP-Ústav jazykové přípravy) Vyškov and its subordinated branches. The results reached lead us to genuine optimalization of departmental language training. The contemporary system of language instruction, without any amendment, could exist even in the future, but it will not be as effective as it could be.

The paper concerns the crisis in Yemen which escalated once again in the beginning of 2015 and considers legality of Operation Decisive Storm launched in March 2015 by military coalition led by Saudi Arabia.

The main goal of this article is to depict the issue of intelligence information sharing within the so called principle "need to share" and highlight the differences of this current trend, which was to replace the "need to know" principle. The first chapter in reference to current global threats depicts the extent of the present national and international interrest in the intelligence field which is followed by the issue of "need to share" principle. The aim of the following chapter is briefly analyse the sfaring of intelligence information within NATO and the EU. This chapter also includes the possible sharing of SIGINT information obtained by national tactical element embedded in Task force during current day operations. The final part evaluates the intelligence information sharing and outlines certain prediction of future development in this field.

Recently the defence department has been meeting lower and lower money sources that could finally bring about lower salaries, reduction in numbers of servicemen, dozens of military units are dissolved. One of such economic measures are plans for dismantling the last Military Secondary School (MSS ) in the Czech Republic. Backed by the assessment of expenses or inputs and outputs, stated in several tablets, the authoresses evaluate the abolition of MSS from a long-term view as rather ineffective, in spite of some short-time savings.

This paper deals with aspects of intelligence analysis that very often influence the quality of intelligence information utilized by end users. Such analysis requires not only analytical thinking, but also specific experiences of all personnel exploiting collected information. The same body of information may result in multiple analytic products, with different security classifications, time scales, and level of detail. The result of this process is an analytical product - evaluation without any idle speculation and pseudo prophecy. Evaluation and interpretation must describe up-to-date conditions and demonstrate the clusters of future images with alternative developments. Reasonable evaluation reduces uncertainty and makes user's decision easier. At the end the author concentrates on rules of analytical team control and management.

Risk management covers the identification, assessment, and prioritisation of risks, which is followed by coordinated preventive operations to minimize negative impacts on society. The most demanding is the so-called risk assessment (risk identification, risk analysis, risk evaluation). The Risk Catalogue consists of introductory page, and twenty cards for risks register. With the assistance of this catalogue, defence analysts acquire general knowledge about number of risks and their frequency. The level of risk is calculated by summation according to its probability, gravity, and unwanted effects. In case of defence department, actual tasks are assigned to manage to Defence Ministry, Division, Branch, and Section accordingly. Possible risks are represented at a chart accompanying the article. The purpose of Risk Catalogue, its principles, guidelines for implementation, is to make the work of analysts easier.

The article summarizes the results of sociological research into organizational culture in the ACR. It should create the picture of military organization, perhaps point at potential dysfunctions and thus to help to their correction. Respondents's opinions on remunerations were detected, in respondents places of work, in combination with their expectancy, anticipations what military service might bring to them. Two thirds professional soldiers have positive attitudes towards interpersonal relations at their working places. The worst position on the scale had the chance to work with the latest technologies and to start a professional career, i.e. to reach important positions. The culture of sustenance, sports facilities were evaluated positively. The lowest rating was allocated to arms equipment, furnishing and quality of garrison quarters. Respondents were also unsatisfied with high level of bureaucratic procedures and formalization.

In October 2008, language knowledge was pretested at the Department of English Language and Literature at the Faculty of Education at the Masaryk University in Brno. The test was developed in accordance with NATO Standardization Agreement 6001 by the examiners of the Defense Language Institute (DLI) of the Czech Army in Vyškov. It covered listening comprehension and reading comprehension tests at SLP 1-2 levels. The tests were organized on behalf of the Department of English Language and Literature by Mgr. Ivana Hrozková and Mgr. Sonia Šamalíková (former Director of DLI Methodology and Testing Department) with a total of 80 students participated in the pretest. The outcomes of such cooperation reiterate the importance of strong ties between both institutions in the field of methodology and testing.

The main goal of the presented article is to evaluate the impact of Japanese missile defence development on the regional strategic stability in Northeast Asia. The goal is reached through an analysis of interaction between missile defence and roles of ballistic missiles in Chinese and North Korean strategies towards Japan, while also taking into account the alternative policies which Japan might have used in response to the ballistic missile threat. According to the analysis, the development of the Japanese missile defence does not degrade strategic stability in the discussed region.

Příspěvek se zabývá vybranými bezpečnostními aspekty námořních hraničních linií Státu Izrael. V krátkosti vymezuje současnou organizaci izraelského válečného námořnictva a jeho vybavení pro zabezpečování izraelské svrchovanosti proti hrozbám přicházejícím z moře, včetně zadržovacích operací vedoucích k zabránění šíření zbraní do rukou protiizraelských teroristických organizací. V souvislosti s izraelskou námořní blokádou pásma Gazy je komentována legitimita takového kroku a mezinárodněpolitické konsekvence jejího vynucování. Ekonomické souvislosti přetrvávajících problémů stran izraelské námořní hranice jsou evidentní na příkladu sporu o právo k využití podmořských nalezišť plynu.

The career education of the Ministry of Defence (MoD) personnel is a key component to meet requirements for qualifications. As these requirements are career growth conditions for career personnel, they are inherently connected with further promotion in rank. During the process of preparation of the career courses it was revealed that some system changes should be made due to implemented or planned changes within the legislative and source framework of the Ministry of Defence. This article describes the implementation process of a new policy for training personnel in the career courses. It was prepared by a project team headed by the Centre for Security and Military Strategic Studies at the Defence University. Furthermore, the article deals with the clarification of the approach to the development of educational documentation and the chosen form of organization and conduction of military career courses. Also, a quality control system and a collection of information needed for upgrading of the senior officers career education curricula are described.

The motivation and professional values of soldiers involved in Other People's Wars is one of the most important knowledge necessary for effective command and control. Those were main reasons for an extensive questionnaire survey among soldiers, deployed in PRT ISAF in 2010-2011. One of the key topics was motivation to leave for Afghanistan, professional expectations and evaluations of external and internal environment of the mission. The purpose of this paper is to present the basic outlines of values of today's Czech soldiers, their professional motives and expectations. The results are interpreted in the context of Moskos' theory of the contradiction between institutional and occupational orientations of present armed forces and adapted to the actual social and political state of affairs.

This paper refers about the threat of Islamic terrorism, its roots, motives, as well as its origins. Namely the author informs about the Jemaah Islamiyah, Islamic organization, which is less know in the Czech Republic. Indonesia has a larger Muslim population than any other country in the world, with approximately 202.9 million identified as Muslim (88,2 % of Indonesia´s population). It is generally regarded as a tolerant country, in which various religions living side by side without larger problems. Nevertheless even here the danger of violent Islamic terrorism has arisen. The theme is treated in a proper historical context, with regards to possible impacts on security situation in the world.

The article identifies specific attributes which have influenced success of modern warfare conducted by infantry battalions and their sub-units. There are mentioned ways to suppress the negatives and opportunities to use positives. There is drafted a possible task organization structure of battalion which allows the variability, modularity and combat readiness, according to capabilities and statements catalogue. The author was inspired by his own experiences as an infantry unit commander. He uses his knowledge gained from military assignments. The article could be considered as topic for future discussions not only on academic but also on specialized level.

The article deals with the issue of creation and realization of space policy. Space programs of individual states are closely connected to decision-making processes of the (general) state (public) policy. Therefore we can raise a question which factors influence these processes and the formulation of space policy and also if they are so unique that could be related only to one particular state. The aim of this article is to focus on one of the factors influencing space policy-strategic culture. Its influence is analysed through case studies of seven nations. Each case study is divided into two parts. First, we identify relevant characteristics of the state's strategic culture. Then, we analyse whether and how the identified characteristics of the respective strategic culture influence the space policy of a state in question. This article seeks to contribute to the growing debate about space as "the next" strategic area and highlights rather overlooked reasons of space exploration.

Today, the word Concept is one of most used terms in the framework of long and medium term of defence management. Concept development as a process is mentioned in significant number of departmental regulations and descriptions of activities of organizational bodies of the Ministry of Defence and General Staff. Concept development and Experimentation is a kind of incantation used when we speak about the development of long and medium term strategic documents. This article comprises the analysis of the legal regulations concerning the development of strategic documents. It analyses the implications of the governmental Methodology of mid-term concepts and Methodology of preparation of public strategies for departmental strategic documents.

The article presents the theory of information operations on the background of contemporary armed conflicts in Ukraine, Iraq and Syria. In the introduction, information is presented as a phenomenon and the accelerator of social development. It outlines basic information channels that deliver security information to their recipients. Furthermore, the article discusses security and operational environment and also vulnerabilities being caused by increasing dependence on information. The core of the article are information operations presented in theory with the author's commentary on real application in military practice and in terms of the Czech Armed Forces. As part of information operations are subsequently introduced psychological operations, computer network operations and electronic warfare. The article ends with real examples of information and psychological operations in modern warfare, and conditions of their management in the Czech Armed Forces. The conclusion summarizes the general idea of the security environment and information operations, and stresses the importance of information operations in current and future conflicts.

Career education of the Ministry of Defence (MoD) personnel is a key component to meet requirements for qualifications. As these requirements are career growth conditions for career personnel, they are inherently connected with further promotion in rank. The MoD Concept of Personnel Development for 2012-2018 sets the direction of the educational development to achieve these qualification requirements. During the process of preparation of the career courses it was revealed that some system changes should be made due to implemented or planned changes within the legislative and source framework of the Ministry of Defence.This article describes the proposal of a new concept for training of personnel in the career courses. It was prepared by a project team headed by the Centre for Security and Military Strategic Studies at the Defence University. The article also shows the development of the situation since 2004, when the professionalization of the Armed Forces of the Czech Republic occurred.

Russia's actions in the Ukraine have changed the security situation in the Baltic region, which makes NATO's long-term presence in Latvia essential for the Latvian Republic. The impacts of Russian actions on Latvian defence policy are discussed in the paper by Mr Janis Berzinš,Managing Director of the Centre for Security and Defence Research, National Defence Academy of Latvia, in Policy Paper, No. 2, 2014. It is a new way of intervention, new-generation warfare, without the employment of armed combats, using mostly influence and coercion, by means of covert operations. Abridged and adapted. The original English text is available at http://www.naa.mil.lv/~/media/NAA/AZPC/Publikacijas/PP%2002-2014.ashx. Even though the study came into being in April 2014, the editors regard it worthy to be published, being timeless and with general validity.

This paper addresses a gap in the literature relating to the effects and implications of water scarcity and the potential for water wars. The theme has evident military consequences. Experts provide rather pessimistic forecasts about the situation with freshwater on the planet. The early warning models seem to be quite useful as well as early warning conflict indicators. The author deals with the problem from the level of the Czech Republic.

This polemics is written by Prof. Fr. Ochrana, both reader and author of the Military Review quarterly. It is a response to the article in No 4, 2013, by Vl. Karaffa, editorial board chairman. Prof. Ochrana generally supports his conclusions concerning the further survival of this Czech Military Review. According to him, the review has indispensable role in the spectrum of both civilian and military professional journals. He recommends to evaluate the problem of its existence upon the principles of cost/benefit analysis, with regard to the so-called socials costs, the key steps of which he enumerates.

In the September Scottish referendum of its separation from the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, the majority of Scottish voters decided against these efforts. But in case of success, Scottish nationalists originally projected considerable military forces. A five-million nation should have had defence budget of 2.5 billion pounds a year, which is in fact roughly a double of the Czech defence budget! During subsequent ten years after independence, the new Scottish Government planned armed forces of 15,000 regular and another five thousand reserve personnel. The article focuses on this rather unknown dimension of Scottish independence debate.

Dietary habits and nutritional conditions are closely tied. They were measured and tested during academic semester, namely in time of examination. Results reached were analyzed. Statistics proved our assumption that during the exam period this study burden deeply influenced overall nutritional state by anthropometrical indicators in male clusters; with 95% rate probability it influenced body mass, body fat and the percentage of water in a body. Zero hypothesis was confirmed as far as muscle material was evaluated.

This specialised article deals with Big Data and the exploitation of this current day phenomenon in the field of intelligence disciplines, based on technical methods of data gathering and its relevant assessments. The introduction deals with the issue of development of the security environment and gives general overview on the current trends in the field of technical branches. The following chapter analyses the main trends, especially the digitalisation of the battlefield, rise in data volume and the development of new technologies. The next chapter is focused on the basic terminology description of the Big Data issue, which leads into final assessment and certain prediction of future development in this field and the rise of importance of this trend for the intelligence disciplines in future.

This paper deals with a geospatial support at a strategic level, especially with the production of rapid map products, presenting at this level the most required product type. Backed by their own working experiences from both NATO and EU command structures, the authors describe requirements for geospatial products created at a strategy level, emphasizing the importance of respecting the general cartographic principles. The authors compare the general technology of thematic map production, making use of Geographic Information System, technology, with the technology specific to the strategic level. They also describe the specifics of production at that level, presenting examples both similarities and differences between geospatial support in NATO and the EU.

After 1989 public opinion polls have become inseparable part of examining our society. By analysing aggregate response data over time, we can see trajectories into the future. This might help MoD officials in decision-making processes, planning long-term developments. The "Army and Public" poll is concentrated on the attitudes of Czech population to topics such as the prestige of a professional soldier, military profession, NATO membership, confidence in public administration, last but not least, the Czech missions abroad. Positive mindsets appeared namely after 1996-97, when Czech army helped during catastrophic flood. In assessing period 2006-2009 most of respondents agreed with the statement that foreign missions proved the qualities of our army, their approval with our engagement in Afghanistan and Iraq rose significantly (by 33,1 per cent), attitudes against Kosovo were unbalanced.

The idea of this enquiry into Czech Army logistics was to prove that even under hard conditions originated in permanently changing army concepts, the army logistics still keeps its high standard and responsibility. During transformation, an appropriate organization structure has been created, with working mechanism of logistics support, using motivated and rationale source exploitation. The purpose of an array of transformation in defence sector was to introduce not only new and effective army structure, compatible with NATO armies, but also to change the system of fi nancing forces. The funding ought to be more economical. The article is backed by a longterm study and observation of logistics development in defence sector.

At the beginning of August, Defence Minister Alexander Vondra announced his intention to give rise to the White Report of Defence as a document constituting clear vision of country's defence. The Paper will constitute a major overhaul of Czech defence and security policy and will set out the path to more modern, compact and reactive security and defence forces. By cutting the overall number of defence personnel, restructuring the defence estate will achieve cost reductions allowing to address more effectively the challenges and threats of the globalized world. It will allocate a substantial budget for defence, in line with the priorities and choices made for her defence capabilities. It will further reflect themes not mentioned before, such as relations between Common European Defence Policy and NATO alliance, new dimensions of civic security in cases of natural disasters, pandemic, or last but not least - terrorist attacks. The Czech White Report is going to make good use of similar documents of Allied nations.