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President Barack Obama came to power at a difficult time in America's history. Home and foreign policies are hard to manage, among others, as we are on the threshold of post-ethnic society, and in the war with terrorisms. Obama does not give up American leadership, but he is seeking to find the balance between security and liberty, between power and freedom in the world, broadly speaking. As the consequence, Mr. Rašek presumes emerging the new global security situation: the rise of multipolar world, divided into several new political spheres. This author's opinion is backed by comments by reputable world's political analysts. As far as Euro-Atlantic relations are concerned, or relations with Russia, there are excellent prospects, namely there is the progress with Russia on arms control-part of Obama's determination to put the world on a path toward nuclear disarmament. The author ascribes the drop in Obama's popularity to failed healthcare reform; outside the US, to the fact that Obama is not able to define clear goals and missions in Afghanistan.

This article aims at building a bridge upon a gap, which separates academic sphere and intelligence community in the issue of predictive methodology. The author tries to accomplish this objective by presenting intelligence predictive methods based on open-source literature research. First, the question of uncertainty and probability in prediction is introduced (Cynefin template). Then follows basic introduction to predictive methods in civil and military intelligences, so that the reader might grasp the fundamentals of early warning systems. The academics and above all journalists should know the risks and perils in forming intelligence forecasts, estimates, foresight and warning scenarios, e.g. the so-called Black Swan scenario, the author explains potentials failures of the Delphi method. This study ought to be regarded as an introductory to predictive intelligence concurrently done by governmental agencies for purposes of national security and defence.

Risk management covers the identification, assessment, and prioritisation of risks, which is followed by coordinated preventive operations to minimize negative impacts on society. The most demanding is the so-called risk assessment (risk identification, risk analysis, risk evaluation). The Risk Catalogue consists of introductory page, and twenty cards for risks register. With the assistance of this catalogue, defence analysts acquire general knowledge about number of risks and their frequency. The level of risk is calculated by summation according to its probability, gravity, and unwanted effects. In case of defence department, actual tasks are assigned to manage to Defence Ministry, Division, Branch, and Section accordingly. Possible risks are represented at a chart accompanying the article. The purpose of Risk Catalogue, its principles, guidelines for implementation, is to make the work of analysts easier.

Human capital refers to the stock of skills and knowledge embodied in the ability to perform labor so as to produce economic value. The article deals with a practical application of this theory into armed forces. The core of its application is wage motivation of a soldier to leave military service if his/her salary is not increasing. The problem is explained by comparison between the age structure of UK Army and Czech Armed Forces. The age structure of UK Army is shaped by the career scheme selecting majority of soldiers out of service before their age of 40. By way of this selection, labour cost is automatically optimised. It is a proof of impact of human capital theory on armed forces that is usually ignored in Czech Forces. The author hopes that poor economic situation in our country ironically helps to optimise Czech army structure.

War game is a simulation of military operations intended to train military commanders or to test a proposed strategy. It is a game in which model soldiers are used to create battles, in order to study tactics. This article illustrates the importance of War Game COAs (course of action). It was tested against opposing force COAs. Such exercise will help to identify advantages and disadvantages and the key elements of execution planning for each COA. The lesson learned during OHQ CZE/SVK BG EU Staff Exercises that took place in Olomouc from January 19th, to January 23rd, and from February 16th, to February 20th, 2009 is that war-gaming (although time consuming) is something closer to "reality" than the "theory" in doctrines. The war-gaming practices teamwork, facilitates team-building and enables to share mental model COA. Commanders and their staff ought to be engaged in simulations and war games more frequently. All information and sources for this paper were drawn from unclassified materials.

The key term in this article is "war economy" It is used to describe the contingencies undertaken by the state to mobilise its economy for war production. Often confused term "resource conflicts" needs explaining. First, there are raw materials, mineral resources (diamonds, precious metals). Another group of resources are critical items, water supplies, and fertile lands. This article concentrates on conflicts provoked by the abundance of natural sources, not by their insufficiency. Their driving motive is "greed-based" model (the effort to take over the control over lands, crude oils). Another model is "grievance-based" model, based upon the feeling of hate, having its roots in e.g. underprivileged position of certain part of population) tied with worsening economy). "War economy" got a new meaning. It moved far away from Clauzewitz's paradigm, the sense of such war is in itself, the war is protracted, it is war for war's sake.

The Engineers are specialist soldiers trained in the construction and demolition of bridges, field fortifications, obstacles, roads, etc. Their major task is to support Czech missions abroad, as a part of multinational peacekeeping forces. This article is a preliminary study into the current state of applying the Czech Engineer units in operations other than war as a part of Joint Forces Peace Support Operations. There are mentioned some aspects, for example basic engineer support tasks, possible demanded future capabilities of the Czech Engineer Troops, engineer support to movement and force protection engineering. The purpose of this article is to initiate a debate about the topic and to start the brainstorming process in a broad military environment.

Bread has constituted a staple of man's diet for centuries. Modern armies have made bread a major part of their sustenance, portable ovens are carried on campaign to facilitate its ample provision. The provisional support of Czech missions abroad is our first priority, baked products belong among those most important. The article deals with results of specific research done within Defence University in this field. The research covered analysis of modern technologies used for baking, devices and appliances. It dealt with traditional materials (e.g. flour) and verified them from a point of chemical, microbiological and sensorial parameters. Actual costs were compared with prices of other methods of production. The research proved that container bakeries are effective device for bread production.

After 1989 public opinion polls have become inseparable part of examining our society. By analysing aggregate response data over time, we can see trajectories into the future. This might help MoD officials in decision-making processes, planning long-term developments. The "Army and Public" poll is concentrated on the attitudes of Czech population to topics such as the prestige of a professional soldier, military profession, NATO membership, confidence in public administration, last but not least, the Czech missions abroad. Positive mindsets appeared namely after 1996-97, when Czech army helped during catastrophic flood. In assessing period 2006-2009 most of respondents agreed with the statement that foreign missions proved the qualities of our army, their approval with our engagement in Afghanistan and Iraq rose significantly (by 33,1 per cent), attitudes against Kosovo were unbalanced.

This leading article deals with the sphere of strategy and defence policy. The essay is an output of scholarly work and therefore it is summarizing and evaluating problems in question with professional recommendations. First, the author draws our attention to various concepts of security and underlines national differences backed by national histories. Security concepts have their sources in deep analyses of potential threats and corresponding scenarios, with specific bias to Czech environment. He openly expresses his critical opinions on contemporary security documents, for lack of political security directions, as politicians in general have little knowledge of security and defence problems. In his opinion, the possible outcome lies in a partnership and cooperation with academics outside military and government structures, experts and members of security community, whose expert opinions could help namely to form long-term security concepts.

The process of modelling the new multipolar world will last for several decades, its key features will be evident till 2020. The rise of multipolar world is as important as the end of "cold war", some twenty years ago. The author sees the United States as the only global superpower, but confronted with Asia, with leading power of China, and raising power of India. Russia and the EU are going to be only regional powers. He enumerates main geopolitical priorities of key world's actors: raw materials, namely oil, gas, water; intellectual potential, combat of ideologies, with selfconfident militant Islam. All variants are still opened. Military power will remain important for completing main strategical aims, alongside with ?soft power?, economic cooperation, and diplomatic ties. The author also mentions organizations and institutions less known in Central Europe: Shanghai Cooperation Organization, APEC, ASEAN, African Union, ECOWAS, Mercosur, last but not least Barcelona Conference and European Neighbourhood Policy.

In the last few years, the Czech Republic has been undergoing deep social changes in which the Army of the CR plays an important role. The soldiers risk their health and even lives, therefore they should take advantage of all benefits offered by state social security. Their professional career, promotions and advances must be taken in account when they are leaving the military service. On the other side, we must also reflect economic capacities of the Czech Republic. The authors enumerate all conditions to be fulfilled, so that soldiers were entitled for veteran benefits, together with the history of various benefits, the ways they used to be handled in the past. Legal adaptations are not systematic solutions. As we have no special law on public service, from which veteran benefits ought to be deduced, we have no general base for proper legal amendments, now being discussed.

Security system is an institutional frame for the creation and implementation of Czech security policy. It is closely tied with NATO, the EU, and other international institutions, which enables its compatibility and interoperability within European security systems. The Czech government prepared The Concept of Security System of the Czech Republic that put emphasis on its effectivity and simplified cooperation and coordination among individual components of security structures. The concept was based upon the analysis of Czech security system, covering events after 11/9 2001, NATO Summit 2002, the Floods 2002, etc. Presented principles of the optimalization of current security system of the CR incorporate key proposals of legislative character that ought to be processed in two years; partial measures will be implemented step by step. The author proposes to incorporate mentioned steps into amendments to defence and recruitment laws, laws dealing with emergency or crisis situations. Such amendments are to be offered till the end of 2007.

The basic question of Army transformation was the fact that it was not constituted upon the statehood principle that gives precedence to politicking individual parties. The ultimate goal of this transformation was to build forces loyal to democratic republic, but during the last ten years the top personnel at the Ministry of Defence changed several times, leaving the Army with restricted means, without precise laid down tasks and goals. Uncontrolled interventions into forces structure, reducing numbers of military personnel, lead to balance on the verge of collapse. The basic goal to develop Czech national security and defence policies did not fell short. Army was transforming itself, initially under the management of former generals and later under civilian control, especially after 1991. The division of the armed forces after the split-up of the state at the turn of 1992 went very smoothly, with good discipline. The transformation has been influenced above all by the newly adopted legislation, accession to NATO and to the European Union, participation in missions abroad and professionalization of the Czech armed forces. The whole process has been facilitated by the acceptance and implementation of a broader concept of security.

The basic task of the post-1989 period was to formulate a security policy and a strategy ensuing from it. The strategy had to be based on a synthesis of the international policy concept, defence concept and internal security concept to ensure that defence would not be seen solely as the task of the army and the Ministry of Defence, but of the whole state and society-of every citizen. In this article his author evaluates some aspects of the armed forces transformation in process of adaptation. He assesses these changes with regard to approved strategic and conceptual documents that significantly determined this gradual transformation process. He identifies both same of its successes as well as failures. The study does not have a clearly analytical and evaluative character; rather it is a combination of factual information drawn from official sources, country's practical security policy as they appeared in contemporary Czech press, and opinions of the author.

The Czech Republic became involved in ISAF in 2002, among others we sent there both field hospital and field surgical team; later meteorological group, traffic control group with EOD team began to serve at the Kabul International Airport. In 2004, the 601st Special Force Group was engaged in Enduring Freedom operation, Czech soldiers served in German Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT), positive role was played by Czech Operational Mentoring and Liaison Team. Another successful mission was establishing PRT Logar, supporting social, economical development in this province. New common features of PRT, helicopter OMLT, EUPOL mission, partly SOG is the concentration on building Afghan capacities, namely ANSF (Afghan National Security Force) and public administration. Together with their deliberate support, it has multiplying effect, as assistance and training bring more effects than mere fulfilling standard military tasks, guarding e.g. Dutch base.

The important part of the forces transformation deals with the problem reducing in numbers of officers, namely field officers and general corps in the Czechoslovak Armed Forces and lately the Army of the Czech Republic. The main cause of this reduction was new concept of military career, as before the transformation it used to be a lifelong profession. The downsizing started in 1990 and it ought to have been finished by the end of the first period of the Czech Armed Forces Reform, as of 2008/12/31/, but it appears that downsizing is endless. The author quotes figures concerning numbers of officers; several rank charts and tablets with corresponding NATO and Czech grades respectively are used to demonstrate veracity of his statements. According to Lt.Col. Pernica, the downsizing is going to continue but no one knows how many officers for the all-volunteer Czech armed forces will be enough.

The Association of Officers and Warrant Officers is a voluntary civic society directed and planned by the Central Council. It is the professional association of officers, former officers, and spouses, civilian employees and friends. Its activities cover a broad range of special-interest clubs. It cooperates with similarly oriented associations in NATO countries. The association has a long history of effective professional activities. The author enumerates performances done this year, namely the Paintball Czech Army Cup 2009 or demonstrations of combat engagement of a multinational squad to destroy the attack of terrorist groups. They produced multimedia compact disc "Pictures from Czech History 1914-2004" and organized the conference "The Youth in Present-time Czech History: Risks and Hopes" and are preparing another audio-visual teaching aid "Czech Society in Modern Europe: Destiny, Ties, Retreats and Approaches", made for all elementary and secondary schools.

Abolishing military courts at the end of 1993 could evoke the idea that there is no such thing as military judicature in our country. In fact, the Defence Act sets that in time of military preparedness, higher and lower field tribunals and courts come into existence. But present legal norms do not know the legal term "state of military preparedness", only "mobilization". There are many other legal gaps, concerning e.g. declaration war, defining state of war, proclaiming martial law. There are not firmly set statutes of field military courts, their subordination, dependence of field judges and their assistants, or how shall we handle offences of our soldiers abroad, its connections with international laws and agreements. This state of affairs for quick remedy.

In recent history, German armed forces have been transformed into a modern, international recognized force, so has its logistics. Readiness became a major issue and soldiers suddenly had to be prepared for a broad variety of international missions, predictably supported by military logistics that newly cooperates with a private sector. The main logistics control and management centre is situated in the port city Wilhelmshaven. The Centre is responsible for planning logistics operations, their coordination both home and abroad. The newly created department for supply chain management is going to streamline supplies, to increase efficiency of the whole supply process. By means of several schemes the authors explain flows of materiel and supply routes tied with civilian companies (e.g. HIL GmbH).

In October 2008, under the auspices of the First Deputy Chief of the ACR General Staff Maj.Gen. Josef Prokš and Col. Jiří Gajdoš, Chief of Czech Armed Forces Chemical Corps, 3rd International CBRN Commandant and Commanders Conference took place in Liberec, dealing with the CBRN threats and variants of protection against them. The Conference was organized by Force Development Division-Operations Section Chemical Corps Department in cooperation with Centre of Excellence in Vyškov, 31st CBRN brigade in Liberec, NBC Defence Institute in Vyškov, Centre of Biological Protection at Těchonín, Chemical Corps Department of Joint Forces in Olomouc, Czech NBC Team, and last but not least VOP-026 in Šternberk. The conference was regarded as a meeting of heads of chemical corps both NATO nations and friendly countries. Further information: Pavel.Otrisal@unob.cz.

This essay is based up ideas summarized in Huntington's famous book The Clash of Civilizations. According to Mr. Huntington, there are seven or eight world civilizations. The West is "unique"-but its values are not universal. World politics is entering a new phase, in which the great divisions among humankind and the dominating source of international conflict will be cultural. The decline of the nation state from the conflicting pulls of tribalism and globalism, among others. The author of this essay introduces individual world's cultures and traces prognostic visions both from historical and topical point of view. He warns against intervening into civil wars, as we know very little about their cultural background which must be respected; our interventions might be disserviceable.

The autor responds to several articles published in our Military Review, namely by Prof. František Ochrana, Prof. František Božek, Brigadier Rudolf Urban, Prof. Miroslav Krč, in No. 4/2008, with special appreciation to critical articles by Ing. Jiří Dušek and Lt.Col. Ing František Růžička in the same issue. He tries to find out common denominators of those essays. There are three of them: economization tied with rationalization, risk management, and information compatibility. As necessary he regards to unite those denominators both at the level of decision making officials and at the level of their subordinated elements, by means of e.g. working teams as a guarantee of coordination, so that the adopted Long-term Vision of Defence Department could be actually realized.

Effective operations of institutions within public sector presuppose obtain necessary knowledge how those institutions operate in the scope of their responsibility. Collected data could be used for making use in higher levels of command and control. The data might be acquired via the audit of activities of examined institution. This study tries to outline main basic steps how to accomplish the audit of institutional activities with the stress on a level of administration and management. By definition, audit is inspection and verification of the accuracy of financial records and statements. Internal audits are conducted by a company's own personnel to uncover bookkeeping errors and also to check costeffectiveness of labour. An external audit is used to give the public a true statement of an institution's financial position. The auditors inspect real estate, buildings, and other assets to see if their value is overstated.

This essay depicts he alternative approach to investments in public sector. Author expresses his belief on evaluating and rating investments in public sector in the same way as in private sector. The simple theoretical analysis and foreign experiences give enough evidence about feasibility of such approach even in defence sector. Nowadays, in governments across the world, public-sector financial systems are being transformed more fundamentally than at any time in decades. The changes are taking place to respond to a number of deficiencies of government accounting and financial-management system. Foreign experience has proved that a system of output appropriation provides a workable alternative to the traditional input-based system and can yield substantial advantages for both departmental management and government decision makers.

This essay depicts he alternative approach to investments in public sector. Author expresses his belief on evaluating and rating investments in public sector in the same way as in private sector. The simple theoretical analysis and foreign experiences give enough evidence about feasibility of such approach even in defence sector. Nowadays, in governments across the world, public-sector financial systems are being transformed more fundamentally than at any time in decades. The changes are taking place to respond to a number of deficiencies of government accounting and financial-management system. Foreign experience has proved that a system of output appropriation provides a workable alternative to the traditional input-based system and can yield substantial advantages for both departmental management and government decision makers.

Evaluating offers of contestants for public contracts belong to key and critical moments of public tenders and the whole acquisition process at all. Variety and comprehensibility of numerical and rating methods shouldn't prevent applicants from understanding conditions and terms of contract/agreement. The transparency principle of evaluating is only slowly pushing forward in our legal system. We move from mere subjectivistic and unverifiable impressions to the unbiased comparing of best offers, together with the requirement of transparency, as a part of the process of comparing, ranking, and assessing offers, by the use of specific qualitative or quantitative factors, such as prices, feasibility, collateral risks, time plan or other conditions. The final step is called amalgamation, when we merge individual classifications in one complex appraisal.

In the Czech Republic, the schooling of security experts is broken into fragments, i.e. into many fields of study, which go beyond security politics. The state of affairs can't be regarded as satisfactory. The first step is the Resolution of Czech Security Council No. 32/2007, Common Minimum for Security Experts, which put a proposal to introduce security issues into teaching programmes in universities and institutions of further education, so that such institutions could obtain accreditation in this field. This minimum is specified namely for undergraduate study; graduated security studies ought to be more specialized. Political scientists involved in the study of security policy should attempt to devise solutions for problems of public concern. Security study covers issues such as non-military threats and risks, proliferation, pollution, natural disasters, mass migration, economy risks. It is tied with international relations, foreign policy and national security strategies.

Physical condition and nutritional state of soldiers were monitored among members of KFOR mission by means of anthropometrical measurement of physical changes, defined above all by the so-called Mass Body Index, metabolic exchanges, and contents of fat in a body. The evaluation was done in picked-up clusters, formed on the base of physical activities of personnel. Verifying was carried out by means of the Wilcoxon test, non-parametric statistical test for the case of two related samples or repeated measurements on a single sample. The test involves comparisons of differences between measurements; the null hypothesis is specified. The alternative hypothesis assumes clusters, different in physical characteristics, with notable statistical differences. Among other results, in 2005, 57.10 per cent of military personnel between 25-35 years were overweight.

Under the auspices of Defence University Brno, for the third time, the social researchers executed the investigation of opinions and attitudes of Czech citizens towards the Army of the Czech Republic. It is a continual, systematic monitoring of long-run attitudes, perspectives, and preferences of Czech population, their stability or variability, preferences and priorities. It was measured by the sample survey (quota sampling). A total of 1,050 adult respondents (with a representative sample of 1,005 respondents) were polled by 62 interviewers. The first place among Army tasks took the help of the forces in time of natural disasters and ecology catastrophes (96.4 %); the second came the defence of Czech territory (85,2 %); and the third fight against terrorism (82,7 %). As less important is regarded the deployment of the Czech army abroad (55,4 %). All gathered data are presented on several graphs and schemes.