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Czech Military Review

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The Lines of Operation Concept (Part II)

Military art

Ing. Ján Spišák

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 53-64

The fundamentals of this concept, as they were explained in previous Military Review No 1, 2011, have stayed unchanged, up to the present. There still exist operational bases, directions, courses, lines, upon which military convoys transfer by the plan or in disorderly manner. Such picture corresponds to linear wars of first, second and third generations. The wars of fourth generation are characterized by the speed and initiative. The frontiers between war and politics are blurred, so are between civilians and combatants. They are mostly wars with and among non-state actors, counter-insurgency operations (COIN) Based on doctrinal analysis; author describes concepts philosophy in functional and logical aspects. This might help the commander and staff to visualize the arrangement of military capabilities in time, space, and purpose to accomplish the mission. The concept might be successfully applied in connection with stability and COIN operations.

The Lines of Operation Concept (Part I)

Military art

Ing. Ján Spišák

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 38-49

There are two great interpreters of the Napoleonic experience, Jomini and Clausewitz. Both were interested in the application of military force to achieve political goals. The article familiarizes readers with Jomini's theoretical fundamentals of operational design elements, namely the lines of operations. Jomini left a great mark on the details of strategic planning: campaign planning, the selection of the theatre of operation, the base of operation, the line of operation, and decisive points. At the end of this process of selection was the final deployment for the decisive battle. Jomini's major contribution, then, was to provide the geometry of the battle space. In his investigation of the nature of war he developed several key operational concepts. As an operational art tools they help the commander and staff to visualize the arrangement of military capabilities in time, space, and purpose to accomplish the mission. The concept of operational lines is evolved in all operational functions in terms of ongoing military missions.

The Assessment of Political Risks in the Selected Countries: Multivariate Statistical Methods

Informational pages

Ing. Jakub Odehnal, por. Bc. Ladislav Dudek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 111-119

The paper deals with the data were obtained from the set of variables published in the International Country Risk Guide. The variables were as follows: Government Stability, Socio-economic Conditions, Investment Profile, Internal Conflict, External Conflict, Corruption, and Military in Politics, Religious Tensions, Law and Order, Ethnic Tensions, Democratic Accountability, Bureaucracy Quality. To analyse the current situation in selected 140 countries, authors employ multivariate statistical techniques. They classify the analysed countries by means of cluster analysis to prove the existence of differentiated groups. The results were evaluated with the help of a dendrogram. The conclusions indicate that traditional NATO member countries achieve above-average values in the selected variables.

Will Military Deception Pass Away?

Opinions, controversy

Doc. Ing. Milan Kubeša, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 97-100

There are no military conflicts without deception, as it is among others a very cheap method how to contribute to the successful accomplishment of the assigned mission. Military deception (MILDEC) is applicable across a wide range of military operations. MILDEC can be conducted during all phases of military operations at strategic, operational, and tactical levels. It is defined as being those actions executed to deliberately mislead adversary decision makers as to friendly military capabilities, intentions, and operations, thereby causing the adversary to take specific actions (or inactions) that will contribute to the accomplishment of the friendly mission. According to he author, the operational deception is to be explained in more detail, basic rules are to be outlined, including fundamental principles and methods of deception for operational planning.

Bedřich Reicin: Criminal and Victim

Book review

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 167-171

The new book by historian František Hanzlík "Without Mercy and Compassion" deals with a prominent actor of the Czechoslovak People's Army and the Communist Party. His personality unites anti-Nazi fight in Soviet Russia, communist coup d'état in February 1948, monstrous political trials. He reached the height of career when he became Deputy Defence Minister and aspired to the position of Defence Minister. But in 1950, when Czech president's son-in-law Alexej Čepička held this office, his rapid decline began. In a sense, it was the start of his end.

NATO Response Force

Military art

Ing. Jaroslav Kulíšek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 46-71

This article illustrates the troubles encountered with development of the NRF. The NATO Response Force is a highly ready and technologically advanced force made up of land, air, sea and special operations forces components that the Alliance can deploy quickly wherever needed. The NRF is intended to be a transformational force that will not only be able to meet the security needs of NATO in 21st century but also serve as an agent of change whereby all the member nations of NATO will be able to bring capabilities, and concepts of operations into their national forces. Undoubtedly, the NRF will not provide a basis for solving all of complex challenges. But it does offer an opportunity for experimentation and testing-the essence of military transformation-and the forging of creative solutions. The views expressed in this assessment are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of NATO or EU.

Decisive Points Concept (Part II)

Military art

Ing. Ján Spišák

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 65-73

The article continues explanation basic operational terms, familiarizes readers with true theoretical fundamentals of the key element of operational design - the decisive point. Basic doctrinal interpretations are described and explained. Its introduction and utilization is visible during the operational planning process and elaboration of operational design. The concept of decisive point has a close connection to the other concepts, namely lines of operations, the centre of gravity and the end state. The concept is further evolved via example of peace support military operation planning process. Key words: decisive points, decisive conditions, lines of operations, centre of gravity, effect, kinetic, nonkinetic operations, doctrine.

Jan Eichler: Terrorism and Wars in Era of Globalisation. (Is it possible to prevent wars?)

Book review

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 172-174

The author Jan Eichler works at the Institution of International Relations Prague, so those are the themes he is professionally involved in. His publication deals with security threats and their assessments at the beginning of 21st century. This second edition of his book is amended by several wars taking place since the first edition was released. They were wars between Russia and Georgia 2008-2009, Israel vs. the Palestinians 2008-2009, several conflicts in Africa, Columbia, and Sri Lanka; ISAF operations in Afghanistan; in Iraq the new attitude of the USA towards conflict solution. Somalia represents a typical failed state with warlords, criminal gangs, Somalia and sea piracy is a mutually tied problem the word community was not able to solve. Last but not least, there are dangerous activities of Islamists in North Africa. Even though those mentioned conflicts are only regional, their consequences are global. They therefore need the involvement of international organizations, the EU and the UN respectively.

Starting Points for the Preparation of Updated Security Strategy of the Czech Republic 2011

Reviewed

PhDr. Miloš Balabán, Ph.D., PhDr. Antonín Rašek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 3-19

In our country, existing strategical documents related to security used to be compiled very carefully, but proved to be not very effective, as they did not fit to practical everyday security policy, they did not comply with day-to-day requirements. The only exception was the 1991 doctrine dealing with the creation of Integrated Rescue System and the implementation of professional armed forces. At present, there is a tendency to rewrite those strategy documents again, namely in the field of security. The preparation of a new version of Czech security strategy is taking place in time marked with new trends in world politics and economy. The main attention is attracted by crisis management, arms control, disarmament, WMD non-proliferation, cooperation with non-NATO nations, and international organizations, last but not least counterterrorism and cyberspace security strategy. In short the study mentions Czech political-military ambitions, defence strategy, defence capacity and resources, it appreciates in value knowledge gained by the Centre of Security Policy, Faculty of Social Science, Charles University Prague, and it contains conclusions and recommendations for the preparation the 2011 Czech National Security Strategy.

The Relative Leverage of Combat Powers

Military art

Ing. Jaroslav Kulíšek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 74-85

The overall purpose of this paper is to describe the way the Alliance and the also the Czech Army is going to apply the leverage of powers while conducting operations in the future. The article shows in details that the relative combat power analysis requires an assessment of factors either directly or indirectly affecting the potential outcome of the operation. In order to improve military knowledge and operational thinking within the Czech Army it is recommended to improve the quality of officers' military training and personnel preparation in accordance with Czech MoD White Paper on Defence. The views expressed in this assessment are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of Alliance or the Czech Ministry of Defence.

Nine Memories for the Czech Future (Illustrations Instead of Critiques)

Book review

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 175-183

The book consists of papers by eleven authors, members and fellow members of the Centre for Social and Economy Strategy, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University Prague. At present, we must prepare to face socially unwelcome phenomena. We must arrange preventive projects, so that we could solve prospective crises. The authors therefore pay their attention to methodology of crisis scenarios, or how they are to be prepared. Predicted nine worst-case scenarios anticipate prolonged crises, failure in education policy, rise of extremism, climate changes, energy collapse, lack of international balance, and separation of the Czech Republic from Europe.

The Rules of Fire Application of Arty Regt and Bty

Military professional

Prof. Ing. Ladislav Potužák, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2007, Vol. XVI. (XLVIII.): 175-181

The purpose of this article is to explain methods of the application of artillery fire, according to the width and shape of targets by artillery regiment (without rocket battery) and by artillery battery, if components/data for effective fire are set by substitute means, without computer with respective SW. The assignment of optimal method of artillery fire and its professional implementation has a great influence on FFE (fire for effect). For the sake of economy, live firing practice is executed only to a limited extend. Most of activities are carried out only in the field of command skills, keeping documents, commanders' performance and training gun crews; their reactions to commands and orders. The article is accompanied by several tablets with data concerning application of artillery fire, variable data for aiming devices, adjusted ranges of fire, widths of target divided into several sheaves of fire (converge sheaf, sheaf for target width), their corrections.

Environmental Aspects of Military Training and the Impacts Classification on Living Surroundings

Military professional

Kpt. Ing. David Řehák, Ph.D., mjr. Ing. Milan Haška, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2007, Vol. XVI. (XLVIII.): 187-192

The main objective of the ACR is the most effective and best defence of the country, with the use of principles of collective defence. But the military activities are accompanied by damages, wastes in living environment. The classification of those effects is being done by the method called Hazard and Impact Index that enables to set probable damages in advance and to adopt preventive measures to prevent them. The process starts with evaluating objects that might be endanger, materials, vehicles, activities, energy, together with impact on environment. Impact groups are divided roughly into two groups: natural surrounding, and socio-cultural surrounding. Some are expected, other unexpected, frequently they are mixed. Most of military damages are unintended, accidental. The article is accompanied by the tables introducing figures of Hazard and Impact Index.

Potential Deployment of Snipers in ACR Operations

Military professional

Mjr. Ing. Josef Ručka, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2007, Vol. XVI. (XLVIII.): 135-149

The article deals with duties of a sniper and a military observer, sharp shooting at long distances, movement at areas in which operations are being carried out. Snipers are trained marksmen who are specialized in sniping the enemy. They are usually sited away form the main force, so that they can concentrate on shooting at selected targets instead of being drawn into general firefight. They are also less likely to be affected when the main force comes under artillery fire. The modern sniper is not alone, he is usually employed in team of two. The author also describes rifles and other weapons and equipments snipers are armed. The article is supplemented by graphs and tablets.

Unmanned Aircraft

Military professional

Ing. Josef Nastoupil

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2007, Vol. XVI. (XLVIII.): 213-217

The article deals with the question of unmanned aircraft generally, it doesn't discuss their individual types. Unmanned aircraft (UAVs) are designed to fly without a pilot (that is by remote control), their combat engagements are less risky and potentially less costly. Army officials say that UAVs will serve better, as they will carry more weapons and sturdier avionics, use the same fuel as other service aircraft, and could be operated by soldiers in theatre. Avionics and weapons might be controlled even by a conventional link with ground control stations. One "land pilot" can control several UAVs simultaneously. The running programmes will produce mature technologies and stable designs, making use of critical technologies, control abilities. The other critical technologies are: an engine that uses heavy fuel and an automatic take-off and landing system. As a part of coalition forces, the UAVs had proved their usefulness and serviceability in the Middle East.

Wars of the so-called Post-Confrontation Period: Successes, Paradoxes, Challenges

Military art

Doc. PhDr. Jan Eichler, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2006, Vol. XV. (XLVII.): 40-51

Even after the Cold War, our world is full of local and international conflicts. There were dozens of wars, fringe clashes between local opposing groups in Africa, Asia and so on. Among them there were four wars of lager size, with more than thousands of deaths in each of them that could be characterized as international wars: Desert Storm 1991, Iraqi Freedom 2003, Allied Strength 1999, and Enduring Freedom 2001. Now we can look at them from a distance ...217 Problems tied with those large-scale wars have several levels: supranational (international) level and military level, being accompanied by paradoxes: international and political paradoxes and military ones. This influenced structures and methods of training and preparation of Australian, Britain and US forces. The lessons were embedded into their military concepts, rules and regulations, e.g. Complex Warfighting (Australia), Future Land Operating Concept (UK), Field Manual: Interim Counterinsurgency Operations (US). New roles of military forces, global and local implications, ought to be embedded also into the structures and concepts of the Army of the Czech Republic, concludes the author.

The Air Force in the Urban Fight

Military professional

Ing. Josef Nastoupil

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2007, Vol. XVI. (XLVIII.): 218-220

As the world grows ever more urbanized, the Air Force prepares airmen to fight in cities. They are complex domains where military operations are congested by terrain and by the danger of collateral damage and the risk to non-combatants. The Air Force supports the joint force by providing valuable airspace control, command and control, communications and psychological operations support, close-air support, terminal attack control, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, and combat search and rescue. But Air Force capabilities in the urban are not just the supporting force for urban operations, it has ability to provide strategic attack against critical urban area. Based upon an article by Lt.Col. Brian M. Newberry in Armed Forces Journal, September 2006.

Strategic Aspects of Actions Taken to Destroy an Insurgency

Military professional

Ing. Josef Nastoupil

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2007, Vol. XVI. (XLVIII.): 221-228

Conventional military strategists did not hold counterinsurgency (COIN) and irregular warfare with high esteem. In fact, strategists often marginalized COIN and irregular warfare, never regarding irregular warfare as worthy of strategic-level discussions. But true strategic thinking on the subject of COIN and irregular warfare consider time and space and long strategic view. Now we must consider critical areas for the global war on terrorism (GWOT), including changing nature of the threat environment. Sources: Principles, Imperatives and Paradoxes of Counterinsurgency, by E. Cohen, Lt.Col. C. Crane, Lt.Col. J. Horvath, Lt.Col. J. Nagl; Strategic Aspects of Counterinsurgency by Col. J. B. Celeski in Military Review March-April 2006.

NATO is Preparing a New Strategical Concept

Nonreviewed

PhDr. Antonín Rašek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 3-21

The primary purpose for NATO enlargement, covering first three countries of the so-called Visegrad Four and later Slovakia, was the necessity to fulfil "security vacuum" in Central and subsequently in Eastern Europe which came into existence after the fall of Soviet empire. Membership of those countries helped to fix criteria for admission of other states to the Alliance. Today, the NATO alliance stands in front of new important challenge: to work out a New Strategic Concept agreement in late 2010, based upon the idea saying that the security of Euro-Atlantic region is tied with and depends on the safety of the whole world. This safety concept will able to be realized only by means of global strategical governance. More then predicting expected security and defence ideas, the author reopens a broader discussion about the real meaning of NATO membership. He also repeats and enumerates risks and threats we are facing today.

Facilities for Battalion Task Force Augmentation with Artillery Pieces, with the Use of Automated System of Artillery Support Control

Military professional

Prof. ing. Ladislav Potužák, CSc., pplk. Ing. Josef Vondrák, kpt. Ing. Michal Sobarňa, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 132-144

The artillery of the Army of the CR is indispensable part of Czech armed forces. It will take part in operational activities, in the frame of EBAO concept (Effect Based Approach to Operations), acting in contact with various task forces. To meet those objectives, it must reach highest level of modulability. The article depicts all variants of effective augmentation by artillery firepower, artillery reconnaissance, and close artillery support. It enumerates all possible combinations of this reinforcement. Backed by those acquired specifics, the authors further extrapolate demands for automated control system of artillery fire support.

"Fog of War" in Pieces of Classical Authors: Clausewitz a Tolstoy (Problems of Uncertainty and Chance Events In War)

Military art

Bc. Tomáš Kučera

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 51-59

The proponents of Revolution in Military Affairs claim that modern military technology will lift a "fog of war". In this article the term "fog of war" is described and illustrated in a work of Carl von Clausewitz who is supposed to introduce this term, used also in the famous novel War and Peace by Leo Tolstoy. These classics show us that uncertainty and chance, in other words fogs of war, are essential to human mentality. They will be present as long as war remains within a scope human endeavour. Emphasizing that military technology is equal to lifting the "fog of war" can lead to situation in which only trained commanders are supposed be able perfectly address problems in "chessboard" of war or computer simulators, but they will unable to manage a real world full of chaos, as they not used to count with uncertainties.

Military Decision-making Process and Advanced Methods of Managerial Decisions

Military art

Ing. Pavel Zůna, MSS

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 22-37

The problem of forming military decisions lies in the very core of this article. Among others, there are a lot of highly unpredictable impact factors; there are many assessment criteria for individual variants of solving problems. Criteria of qualitative characters, and various interpretations of data information demand quality decisions; they are sometimes difficult to understand and even contradictory. The commanders and their staffs must be well educated, trained and experienced. To meet this precondition we must ensure quality of career training, supported by practical experiences. The staff work must be practiced regularly, with the use of various scenarios, supplemented by historical studies of past or recent fi ghts and battles.

Long-Term Monitoring of Actual Health Status Parameters of Czech Population with Emphasis on ACR Servicemen

Military sociology

Mgr. Libor Soumar, Ph.D., PhDr. Čestmír Oberman

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 174-189

This article presents trends in actual physical status of Czech population with emphasis to the military population. The battery of standard tests was used to monitor the basic health related parameters. This test battery was applied to large sample demographic groups. The results verify expected trends. Anthropometrical data show that the population reaches critical level of overweight at age of 40. Blood pressure tends to increase more rapidly after age of 45. Strength and cardiovascular fitness peaks at age of 25, followed by steady decline. Although it was predicted that military personnel should reach higher physical fitness level and lower risk factors, there were no significant difference between military and civilian population. Effect of three-month basic training on actual health status is quite positive, it improves body composition, but no special effect on overall strength. Higher levels of physical readiness were found only in small special units.

Criminalization and Religious Radicalization in Chechnya as Two Main Streams of Development after 1996 and their Influence on Terrorism in Subsequent Conflict

Informational pages

Bc. Martin Janků

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 123-137

The article deals with the disintegration and erosion of originally cohesive Chechen resistance movement during the First Chechen War and following inter-war period. According to the author, the main reasons of this process are criminality and religious fundamental radicalisation. They together produced inner confl icts between fi eld commanders; some of them attacked Russian security forces in neighbouring regions (Dagestan, Ingushetia), even after war had ended. Disintegration processes were encouraged by social deprivation after the first war, by strategical position of Chechnya in relation to smuggling drugs and weapons, stealing rude oil, and fi nally activities of foreign Islamic solidarity fi ghters. All those factors signifi cantly contributed to the outbreak of the Second Chechnya War.

Obama's First Year in the White House

Reviewed

PhDr. Antonín Rašek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 3-23

President Barack Obama came to power at a difficult time in America's history. Home and foreign policies are hard to manage, among others, as we are on the threshold of post-ethnic society, and in the war with terrorisms. Obama does not give up American leadership, but he is seeking to find the balance between security and liberty, between power and freedom in the world, broadly speaking. As the consequence, Mr. Rašek presumes emerging the new global security situation: the rise of multipolar world, divided into several new political spheres. This author's opinion is backed by comments by reputable world's political analysts. As far as Euro-Atlantic relations are concerned, or relations with Russia, there are excellent prospects, namely there is the progress with Russia on arms control-part of Obama's determination to put the world on a path toward nuclear disarmament. The author ascribes the drop in Obama's popularity to failed healthcare reform; outside the US, to the fact that Obama is not able to define clear goals and missions in Afghanistan.

Alliance's New Strategic Concept (Discussion Continues)

Reviewed

PhDr. Antonín Rašek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 3-15

The NATO's New Strategic Concept is only starting point to open discussion on a wide range of security problems. At the beginning there is a description of Czech home politics, attitudes of Czech political parties toward NATO alliance. The author explores the history of NATO's identity crisis. In recent years, different security optics of the members splintered NATO. The US wants an expeditionary alliance with a global reach, the Western Europeans hold to a vision of a regional club of liberal democracies, the Central Europeans have a wish so that Washington would stand by them when they will find themselves pressured by Russia. NATO is divided on how to reform its decision-making processes and how to fund and resource its home and away missions. In Afghanistan, the Alliance faces the most difficult operational challenge to date, with a real possibility of strategic failure. The overarching problem is how to define the core business of NATO: cyber defence, energy security, WMD proliferation, stability and reconstruction missions, out-of-area missions, territorial security, enlargement, partnership-building. The discussion over the New Strategic Concept needs to reorder the question how to define NATO's appropriate roles and go from there.

The Preparation of NATO's New Strategic Concept

Nonreviewed

JUDr. Miroslav Tůma

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 24-28

The article deals with the Declaration on Alliance Security issued in Strasbourg on 4 April 2009. The author enumerates its main items: reform of NATO structures, improving ability to meet the security challenges, strengthening cooperation with other international actors. Today we are facing global threats, such as terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction; our security is increasingly tied to that of other regions. Deterrence, based on an appropriate mix of nuclear and conventional capabilities, remains a core element of Alliance overall strategy. NATO will continue to play its part in reinforcing arms control and promoting nuclear and conventional disarmament in accordance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, as well as non-proliferation efforts. The author is a strong supporter of Obama's idea of world without nuclear weapons; he hopes that this notion will be also reflected in preparing NATO strategic concept. They are also further points to be stressed, e.g., a cooperative partnership between NATO and Russia.

Changes of U.S. National Security at the Beginning of 21st Century

Military art

Doc. PhDr. Jan Eichler, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 38-48

The new American doctrinal document called National Security Strategy (NSS 2010) was released in May 2010. Generally, NSS documents outline major national security concerns and plans. The NSS 2010 lays out a strategic approach for advancing American interests, including the security of the American people, growing U.S. economy, and international order that can address 21st century challenges. President Obama is stressing global leadership, dependent on strong and responsible American leadership directing it to ensure other nations follow. He urged Americans to revitalize their own economic, moral and innovative strength to continue to lead the world. The essay by Mr. Eichler is divided into two parts: first one deals with Bush's security policy, and second one deals with documents issued during Obama's presidency. There is a departure from Bush's security strategy that had led to two asymmetric wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. There are interesting nuances. The NSS 2010 for example declares the intention to build deeper and more effective partnerships with key centres of influence-including China, India, which represents among others Obama's retreat from policy of unilateralism.

Predictive Methodology in Intelligence Services

Reviewed

Bc. Petr Zelinka

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 29-39

This article aims at building a bridge upon a gap, which separates academic sphere and intelligence community in the issue of predictive methodology. The author tries to accomplish this objective by presenting intelligence predictive methods based on open-source literature research. First, the question of uncertainty and probability in prediction is introduced (Cynefin template). Then follows basic introduction to predictive methods in civil and military intelligences, so that the reader might grasp the fundamentals of early warning systems. The academics and above all journalists should know the risks and perils in forming intelligence forecasts, estimates, foresight and warning scenarios, e.g. the so-called Black Swan scenario, the author explains potentials failures of the Delphi method. This study ought to be regarded as an introductory to predictive intelligence concurrently done by governmental agencies for purposes of national security and defence.

Jan Eichler: International Security in the Era of Globalization. (Informative review)

Book review

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 191-195

This is another publication by Mr. Jan Eichler. It consits of three parts: the fi rst one defines nearly three dozens of basic terms in the field of security, the second one deals with wars in the 90?s, and finally third part concentrates on terrorism. The book has evidently pedagogical bias, with explanatory character. Under the influence of foremost sociologist Ulrich Beck, Jan Eichler interprets risks as ?social phenomena? derived from threats. The author also evaluates wars in Africa, Asia and Latin America, in Serbia or the Persian Gulf, which took place in 1990-2001. There were 120 armed confl icts, with 94 % victims from among civil population (compared with 50 % of WWII and 15 % WWI). In those wars bellingerent parties deployed weapons of all sorts, with the exception of WMD. As far as international terrorism is concerned, the author sees as its primary characterists the absence of warning before terrorist attacks are accomplished.

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