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Water Purification Done by Special Logistics Troops of Bundeswehr in AfghanistanMilitary professionalIng. Vladislav Vincenec, Ph.D., doc. Ing. Miroslav Cempírek, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 119-127 The paper offers data on the water supply to Federal German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) combat units in the frame of ISAF operations. It explains new concept and technology of water purification and the exploration of natural water sources for BW water filling stations. Experiences have shown that clean water is of top priority especially in field missions such as that in Afghanistan. The systems of WTC 500, WTC 1600, WTC HS (High Salinity) and WTC container systems are able to prepare up to 15.000 litres of water supply every day. They are highly mobile, of friendly use, capable to work under rough climatic conditions. Built-in recycle systems could save as much as 60 per cent of operating costs. The water prepared by German purification stations is of high quality and meet both norms STANAG 2136 and WHO standards |
Military Decision-making Process and Advanced Methods of Managerial DecisionsMilitary artIng. Pavel Zůna, MSSVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 22-37 The problem of forming military decisions lies in the very core of this article. Among others, there are a lot of highly unpredictable impact factors; there are many assessment criteria for individual variants of solving problems. Criteria of qualitative characters, and various interpretations of data information demand quality decisions; they are sometimes difficult to understand and even contradictory. The commanders and their staffs must be well educated, trained and experienced. To meet this precondition we must ensure quality of career training, supported by practical experiences. The staff work must be practiced regularly, with the use of various scenarios, supplemented by historical studies of past or recent fi ghts and battles. |
Strong and Week Features of "Responsible Ownership of Technology" ConceptMilitary professionalIng. Marie PoláchováVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 138-144 There is an urgent need to recognize changed priorities and evolve new approaches to non-proliferation and disarmament objectives for a sharper focus on the real and present dangers to international peace and stability. The focus must now shift to more effective monitoring and verification of compliance at various levels. The proposed ROOT system (Responsible Ownership of Technology) might be one of such means to meet above mentioned challenges that could eliminate present-day dangers and contribute to international peace and stability. It is the technology for security in the 21st century. |
New Defence Capabilities for New NATO Missions (Lisbon 2010)Pplk. Ing. Ivo Pikner, Ph.D., pplk. Ing. Miroslav Krčmář, doc. Ing. Milan Kubeša, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 3-8 Article deals with new insights into the Alliance missions for the upcoming period of five to ten years that are to be conditioned by achieving higher level of future military capabilities for provision of defence and security within the Alliance and its Partners. Some initiatives are described that are needed to be implemented to achieve the required capabilities and also necessary resources and process measures imposed to the Alliance member states and the Alliance as a whole are indicated. The new Strategic Concept aims to define NATO as a modernized Alliance and a cooperative team player in a globalized world. It gives a comprehensive framework for preserving the core ideals of NATO while transforming it into a dynamic Alliance capable of confronting the unconventional and unpredictable threats that define today's international security environment. The article refers to the ideas and thoughts mentioned in a study of the US NDU's Center for Technology and National Security Policy. |
Evaluation and Certification CZE/SVK Battle Group EUMilitary artIng. Jaroslav KulíšekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 11-40 To fulfil Czech obligation as an EU Battle Group Framework Nation according to the regulating document EU BG Training and Certification, the Czech Army is to certify that the CZE/SVK Battle Group EU meet the standards and criteria stated in Standards and Criteria for EU BG. It is recommended that the CZE/SVK Battle Group EU certification process should be analogous with NATO Response Force (NRF) certification procedure and practical methods. Further it is suggested that the CZE/SVK Battle Group EU certification procedure is divided into several evaluation procedures: preparation planning evaluation, war-fighting evaluation, and technical evaluation. Each procedure will be developed by specialized teams with representatives in the sub-working group to ensure that the different procedures harmonize. The views expressed in this assessment are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of EU Military Structure or the Czech Ministry of Defence. All information and data for this paper were drawn from unclassified sources. The written sources are listed in the matrix above. |
The Relative Leverage of Combat PowersMilitary artIng. Jaroslav KulíšekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 74-85 The overall purpose of this paper is to describe the way the Alliance and the also the Czech Army is going to apply the leverage of powers while conducting operations in the future. The article shows in details that the relative combat power analysis requires an assessment of factors either directly or indirectly affecting the potential outcome of the operation. In order to improve military knowledge and operational thinking within the Czech Army it is recommended to improve the quality of officers' military training and personnel preparation in accordance with Czech MoD White Paper on Defence. The views expressed in this assessment are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of Alliance or the Czech Ministry of Defence. |
The Participation of Civilians in Military Activities: Military-Governmental and Military-Industrial ComplexInformational pagesPodplukovník Ing. Bohuslav Pernica, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 101-113 The article deals with the problem of a certain militarization of a society, supposing country's military establishment is expanding its scope of activities to government or economy. From this point of view, the military and their civilian counterparts could be seen as "imperium in imperio" and such a model of military as a state within a state. There are a military-governmental complex and a military-industrial one in each state and both ought to be under civilian authorities' control, in order to prevent the democratic state from being fallen under influence of this complex. Although the notion was sketched more than fifty years ago, the military-industrial complex theory has been still living, and author gives some examples of the evolution of military-governmental and military-industrial complex. |
The Lines of Operation Concept (Part II)Military artIng. Ján SpišákVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 53-64 The fundamentals of this concept, as they were explained in previous Military Review No 1, 2011, have stayed unchanged, up to the present. There still exist operational bases, directions, courses, lines, upon which military convoys transfer by the plan or in disorderly manner. Such picture corresponds to linear wars of first, second and third generations. The wars of fourth generation are characterized by the speed and initiative. The frontiers between war and politics are blurred, so are between civilians and combatants. They are mostly wars with and among non-state actors, counter-insurgency operations (COIN) Based on doctrinal analysis; author describes concepts philosophy in functional and logical aspects. This might help the commander and staff to visualize the arrangement of military capabilities in time, space, and purpose to accomplish the mission. The concept might be successfully applied in connection with stability and COIN operations. |
Partnership for Learning Program: Online Drill with Native Speaker As a Supplement to Full-time Study of English at the Defence UniversityLanguage preparationPhDr. Ivana Čechová Ph.D., Mgr. Radek Nedoma, RNDr. Oldřich Kříž, Jiří MrenkaVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 128-136 Making use of multimedia, ICT, in a foreign language teachinglearning process is the effective way how to influence motivation and results of the educational process. Based upon the Czech-Canadian Partnership for Learning Program, the project provides synchronous communication between a native speaker and a student during language training, regardless the distance. Mutual communication is an opportunity when the students/learners can use their second language not only in professional discussions, but also in solving problem matters, relevant to their study branch, interests, current events or hobbies. The authors' experience and its analysis form also a part of this paper. |
Language Training within the MoD in the Context of the MoD Order 1/2007Language preparationPodplukovník Mgr. Jan ŠmídVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 162-166 The most frequent word in language preparation is successfulness. This term could be quantified, defined, examined from the point of growth or rating decrease. Our language preparation sticks to Defence Minister Order No 1/2007 (effective from September 2010) on language training. It abolished integrated language courses, teaching units for SLP 1, 2 were decreased. The author examines the situation before and after the publication of the said order and provides possible explanations of the current state, showing slow descent. He supports his explanations with empirical data gathered in foregoing years, through surveys, statistical analyses of test results, in-class observations, and oral feedback from course learners. |
1st Part: Economy Theory and Effective Management in the Army Some Economy Comments on Conditioned Participation of External Sources in Defence EnvironmentNonreviewed - OtherProf. PhDr. Miroslav Krč, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. ZC/2007, Vol. XVI. (XLVIII.): 3-21 Defence system is effective as far as economy is concerned only when target function is met with the minimal overall costs. It is the opening motto to the study by university economy teacher Mr. Krč, Defence University Brno. He concentrates on the so-called outsourcing, both its strong points and drawbacks, audited account, managerial transaction costs, controlling. The outsourcing is a combination of economic, technological, organizational and humane aspects. |
The White Paper and the Security of the Czech RepublicOpinions, controversyPhDr. Antonín RašekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 86-92 The existence of the Czech Army is at state. We need to get over present cut in military budget, ill-advised savings, without searching for new appropriate financial and material sources. To save something important means always to sacrifice or to give up something. Some security and military experts wish to dissociate themselves with approved methods. They think that the White Paper doesn't express opinions on many important things. It assumed that after five years there will be need to revise this White Book. So, proposes the author, wouldn't be better for us to regard the White Book only as an analytical document containing certain proposals for the following Defence Strategy of the CR, as originally intended? |
The Preparation of the Armed Forces of the SR for International Crisis Management Operations in the Context of NATO Lisbon StrategyInformational pagesDoc. dr. Ladislav Lašček, CSc., Ing. Alojz FlachbartVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 103-110 Supported by published materials and information (LaunchingEUBattleGroups, AsecureEuropeinabetterworld), the authors analyze and evaluate some of the processes in the field of preparation and forming international crisis management. Both NATO Lisbon strategy and the Programme Declaration of the Slovak Republic open new roles and missions of Slovak Army. The Slovak Army must fulfil those commitments even in limited source frame. It concentrates on new priorities: the army is trained and prepared for missions it is going to be deployed in. Last but not least, apart of traditional missions, .the forces will be developing even non-military capabilities useful for peace missions. |
The Preventive Aspects of the Overweight and Obesity in the Army of the Czech RepublicInformational pagesPplk. MUDr. Pavlík Vladimír Ph.D., pplk. MUDr. Jana Fajfrová, kpt. MUDr. Michaela Husárová, doc. MUDr. Pavol Hlúbik CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 130-135 The problem of obesity is most frequent metabolic disease rising from unhealthy life style of contemporary population. Cardiovascular and metabolic disorders are pressing even in the AČR, so the authors could describe monitoring the risk factors of non-infectious diseases of mass incidence and the implementation of preventive programme with excessive weight losses, using dietetic, psychological, movements and pharmacological approaches that offer real stimulant for decrease in overweight and obesity prevalence within the Czech Army and concurrently decrease in morbidity of Czech servicemen. |
The Political Economy of Conflict: A New Direction of Research on Internal Conflicts?Informational pagesMgr. Vladimír Vaďura, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 138-154 The key term in this article is "war economy" It is used to describe the contingencies undertaken by the state to mobilise its economy for war production. Often confused term "resource conflicts" needs explaining. First, there are raw materials, mineral resources (diamonds, precious metals). Another group of resources are critical items, water supplies, and fertile lands. This article concentrates on conflicts provoked by the abundance of natural sources, not by their insufficiency. Their driving motive is "greed-based" model (the effort to take over the control over lands, crude oils). Another model is "grievance-based" model, based upon the feeling of hate, having its roots in e.g. underprivileged position of certain part of population) tied with worsening economy). "War economy" got a new meaning. It moved far away from Clauzewitz's paradigm, the sense of such war is in itself, the war is protracted, it is war for war's sake. |
Food Terrorism and AgroterrorismMilitary professionalIng. Hana Vlachová, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 160-168 People commonly imagine terrorist attack as hijacking or improvised explosive device hidden in crowded place. However terrorists can also attack against food, cattle, farm crops or water resources. These kinds of attacks can be ranked among agroterrorism or food terrorism, whereas agroterrorists attack against cattle, farm crops or water resources; food terrorists attack against foodstuffs. This paper is intended to provide information about agroterrorism and food terrorism as possible forms of wilful violence. Food security became discussed issue especially after anthrax incidents in 2001. There are many authorities that deal with these issues, for example EU, NATO or World Health Organization. |
The Command Post Exercise "Good Neighbourhood 2010" (CPX GN 2010): Lessons and ExperiencesMilitary artIng. Ladislav Koláček, Ing. Petr RypVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 50-59 The exercise was a continuation of series of exercises that were conducted in previous years. Among others, participants of the CPX were representatives of Defence University Brno, National Defence Academy Vienna, Austria, and the Armed Forces Academy, Liptovský Mikuláš, Slovakia. During the exercise, in imaginary region POPRADLAND, there were practiced various basis aspects of forces preparations and engagement that focus on EU Battle Group in Area of Responsibility, explaining forming commander and staff's decision-making process at the level of Battalion Task Force, during operational planning and its engagement in action. At the end the Officer Conducting the Exercise certified that participants in the CPX fulfilled set goals and aims of this exercise sucessfully. The exercise was designated maily for members of Higher and Basic Command and Staff Courses. |
Organizational Culture within Armed ForcesMilitary sociologyMgr. Nataša BallováVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 150-162 The article summarizes the results of sociological research into organizational culture in the ACR. It should create the picture of military organization, perhaps point at potential dysfunctions and thus to help to their correction. Respondents's opinions on remunerations were detected, in respondents places of work, in combination with their expectancy, anticipations what military service might bring to them. Two thirds professional soldiers have positive attitudes towards interpersonal relations at their working places. The worst position on the scale had the chance to work with the latest technologies and to start a professional career, i.e. to reach important positions. The culture of sustenance, sports facilities were evaluated positively. The lowest rating was allocated to arms equipment, furnishing and quality of garrison quarters. Respondents were also unsatisfied with high level of bureaucratic procedures and formalization. |
Technology and Products Necessary for the Fight in Urbanized Territory (Urban Warfare Needs New Technology and Materials)Military artDoc. Ing. Dušan Sabolčík, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2006, Vol. XV. (XLVII.): 52-60 Established methods of warfare are out of use in urbanized regions, western technological and arms potential must be amended by new equipments, materials and weapons of XXIst Century WarriorCity Guerrilla Fighter. Urbanized areas are divided into separated sectors with changed dimensions: dominating tall buildings, impenetrable barriers. Reinforced concrete, narrow streets, fight inside buildings prevent us from using global position systems. So, dismounted infantry are being equipped by inertial movement units, portable lasers, noctovisors, and bolometers (i.e. instruments used to measure tiny amounts of radiant energy). Bolometers in combination with low light level videos enable to identify friends of foes, to set risky targets. The socalled reconnaissance hand grenade to get image and sounds of enemy soldiers are being developed, it is anticipated the wide employment of unmanned aerial and ground vehicles. Many arrangements are done to prevent "collateral damages", unintentional killing of civilians as a result of military action. |
National Security Planning and the Issue of Varying Prices: MoD Case StudyInformational pagesPodplukovník Ing. Bohuslav Pernica, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 97-104 Government controls state executives by planning, i.e. a bureaucratic process providing sets of documents. Such plans ought to be feasible in an expecting resource environment. Approach and methods using for working out respective plans are supposed to be conforming to the purpose. In order to be realistic, a financial plan, a budget, should cope with environment of increasing and decreasing prices and exchange rates. This essay, as a case study, deals with the issue of adapting of the short and medium-term planes working out by the Czech MoD for purpose of programming, budgeting and purchasing. The case study shows that generally there is a long-run lack of interest in adapting of such planes to an environment of changing prices and volatile exchange rates. |
The Assessment of Political Risks in the Selected Countries: Multivariate Statistical MethodsInformational pagesIng. Jakub Odehnal, por. Bc. Ladislav DudekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 111-119 The paper deals with the data were obtained from the set of variables published in the International Country Risk Guide. The variables were as follows: Government Stability, Socio-economic Conditions, Investment Profile, Internal Conflict, External Conflict, Corruption, and Military in Politics, Religious Tensions, Law and Order, Ethnic Tensions, Democratic Accountability, Bureaucracy Quality. To analyse the current situation in selected 140 countries, authors employ multivariate statistical techniques. They classify the analysed countries by means of cluster analysis to prove the existence of differentiated groups. The results were evaluated with the help of a dendrogram. The conclusions indicate that traditional NATO member countries achieve above-average values in the selected variables. |
Tactical CommunicationsMilitary professionalPodplukovník Ing. Lubomír StřídaVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 164-169 Communications in which information of any kind, especially orders and decisions, are conveyed from one command, person, or place to another, are basic feature of all civilian organizations, namely as far as managerial work is concerned. In military, they are used within the armed forces, usually by means of electronic equipment, including communications security equipment, organic to the tactical forces. They are implemented in integrated surrounding NEC (Network Enabled Capability) by means of widening and updating field communication system of the AČR. NEC together with other key operational capacities will enable to change information power into higher operational effectivity and strength of Czech armed forces. |
The Security System of the CR and the Necessity of its Adaptation to Cumulative Effects of ThreatsReviewed - ReviewPhDr. Libor StejskalVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 37-47 The term of "growing complex of threats" covers higher and higher probability of concatenation of various intercommoned, mutually tied factors reflecting structured technological and informational reality of global society, making their solving by traditional means of security system extremely difficult. "Crisis situation" represents more general problem of natural disasters or technology breakdowns that are influencing one another, that cause great distress or destruction, in an unexpected manner, activating subsequent threats of so far unforeseen threats. For that reason we must adapt Czech security system to new liquid, instant and indivisible complex threats. |
Decisive Points Concept (Part I)Military artIng. Ján SPIŠÁKVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 34-40 The article familiarizes readers with theoretical fundamentals of the key element of operational design, i.e. decisive point that is described as "a point from which a hostile or friendly centre of gravity can be threatened". It may exist in time, space or the information environment. As a tool of operational art, it helps commander and his staff to unlock the path to the centre of gravity. The concept is further evolved via example of peace support military operation planning process. The close understanding to terms decisive points, lines of operations, centre of gravity, kinetic effects, non-kinetic operations, doctrine is for military planners fundamental. The aim of this article is therefore to explain this basic terminology, to describe connections with other element of operational planning that could be used during all steps of operational planning. Basic theoretical Jomini's implications are introduced and their doctrinal interpretations are highlighted. |
The Shift in Character of Future Operations: Joint Doctrine Publication 3-40Military artVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 69-70 The document "Security and Stabilization: the Military Contribution UK revision of Joint COIN doctrine" was created by the team of authors of DCDC (Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre), Defence Ministry, Great Britain. The publication was similarly as other JDP series written as an instruction manual for members of armed forces to solve at general level the tasks in missions abroad, in disintegrated countries: security, stabilisation and insecurity, strengthening the capacity within armed forces to work alongside civilians for certain specific, short-term reconstruction, development tasks in hostile environments, and to provide a stabilisation presence in the immediate aftermath of a military operation while sufficient security is put in place to enable civilians to deploy. It is highly recommendable literature for members at the level of join staffs, participants in stabilization operations, or for attenders of Higher General Staff Courses. |
NATO Response ForceMilitary artIng. Jaroslav KulíšekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 46-71 This article illustrates the troubles encountered with development of the NRF. The NATO Response Force is a highly ready and technologically advanced force made up of land, air, sea and special operations forces components that the Alliance can deploy quickly wherever needed. The NRF is intended to be a transformational force that will not only be able to meet the security needs of NATO in 21st century but also serve as an agent of change whereby all the member nations of NATO will be able to bring capabilities, and concepts of operations into their national forces. Undoubtedly, the NRF will not provide a basis for solving all of complex challenges. But it does offer an opportunity for experimentation and testing-the essence of military transformation-and the forging of creative solutions. The views expressed in this assessment are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of NATO or EU. |
Military Exercises EU-MILEXMilitary artIng. Jaroslav KulíšekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 65-81 Such exercises are regular part of European exercise process that in periodical cycles examines individual capacities of solving crisis situations, conducting crisis operations under methods developed by the EU. European training process does not cover only the preparation of military units, but also those of civil elements (police, rescue teams, diplomats). Since 2007 the exercises have been ran according to a common scenario "ALISIA", with the purpose to practise crisis operations control by commanders and staffs of EU nations, without any means and elements or support by NATO. European exercise process allows to the EUMS to organize and harmonize two exercises of solving crisis situations in a year. Five members of the Czech Army took part in the exercise MILEX 09 last year. They were involved in the operational planning process at the EU OHQ Specialist Staff, CJ2, CJ4, CJ5 and CJ7 departments. The article is mostly based on the experiences of Czech offi cers at the EU OHQ LARISSA. |
Left Aside: Applicative Impact of Public Legal Nature of Service Relationship of ServicemenMilitary lawPhDr. Ing. Matěj Fichtner, MBAVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 169-177 The paper is devoted to the public legal nature of the service relationship and consequences that arise from this fact. It implies the non-existence of publicly available applicable theoretical apparatus (explicit paradigm), which would describe service legal relationships in context of stabilized principles of Czech judicature. It is the judicature from which this paper derives basic knowledge about the service procedural law and systematically connects them in a unified theory. As a result, it concludes that the service relationship, or the service law, is a special branch of the administration law. It points out the necessity of a discussion about procedural service law that is a source of most problems and misunderstandings. |
What Type of University Education for Military Professionals is Necessary?Opinions, controversyDoc. RNDr. Ladislav Halberštát, CSc., plk. Ing. Vladan Holcner, Ph.D, mjr. Ing. Pavel Foltin, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 60-70 The paper is a contribution to the ongoing discussion regarding training, drills and education of military personnel. It indicates a comprehensive solution of the issue both in national and international connection of the current approach to military vocations, life-long learning Vojenské rozhledy 1/2011 and expected deployment of the present-day armed forces. Using results of a research conducted within the Czech Ministry of Defence and Armed Forces, authors specify roles of individual stakeholders in the process of training and education in the military and define prerequisites of an effective military educational and training system. The authors treat this problem in context of the so-called National Qualification Framework, multinational project of EU member states Military Erasmus, activities conducted by European Security and Defence College (ESDC) and others. |
Islamism as a Security Threat to the Czech RepublicInformational pagesDoc. PhDr. JUDr. Miroslav Mareš, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 118-128 This paper deals with various forms of Islamist threats to the Czech Republic, with specific attention paid to military issues. It defines the basic terms and describes the role of the Czech Republic in Islamist strategies. Threats of terrorism and jihadism, extremism and riots, violation of women's rights, including the so-called "honour crimes", and internal clashes within the Muslim community are analyzed. Contemporary situation of the Czech Republic can be characterized mostly as "logistic area" to Islamism. Even thought there is not an eminent danger, the intensity of several Islamist threats could be higher in the future. The primary purpose of this article is to form a basic frame for identification of prospective terrorist attacks by means of extrapolation. |

