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Rocket technology occupies an elite position in the doctrines of hybrid actors in the Middle East. The thesis of proliferation of tactical ballistic missiles analyses four models - political, technological, substitutional and propagandist-psychological. An effective reduction of ballistic missiles and technologies has been identified in the political model, where sanctions and embargoes limit the proliferation of missile technology. In the technical model, which plays a key role, the limiting factors are those of development and dissemination of high-energy laser weapons. The substitutional model illustrates the application of tactical ballistic missiles as carriers for improvised devices. It is of marginal importance, despite covering targets that involve secondary damage. Studying the model of propaganda and psychology confirms the psychological effect on the population associated with the losses, but it does not affect the reduction of missiles.

This study deals with selected aspects of the conflict in Eastern Ukraine in Luhansk and Donetsk region in period of April 2014 - to February 2015. Study is divided in two subsequent articles. The first article consists of introduction, theoretic-methodological part, analytical part and short summary, which defines main features of Russians engagement in the conflict. Theoretic-methodological part deals with terminological, theoretical and methodological background of analysis, including generally approach of Russian federation to security policy. Analytical part is divided in to the two partial chapters. The first deals with main Russian objective in the conflict. The second deals with the phases of Russian engagement.

Recent developments in security environment in the last two years re-opened crucial European debates such as the reform of the NATO architecture to address resurgent Russia to the East and as finding common European solution to migratory pressures that test both national capabilities and European solidarity. Even through the Visegrád countries do not always share common interests, the V4 manifests that it can play indispensable role in reaction to these developments. However, V4 still lacks actually proactive regional approach that would accommodate polish interests in order to keep informal leader Poland invested in this cooperation format. Polish elections mean one more challenging test for the V4 to coordinate positions before the crucial NATO Warsaw summit. Should this endeavor be unsuccessful, Poland could look to other formats that mirror its interests and threat perception more closely meaning that V4 would take a back seat with regard to NATO agenda. The task for the Czech V4 presidency is to produce practical results in ongoing ambitious project in defence cooperation so that is demonstrates the cooperation's 'added value.'

Defense planning and research has to engage with questions about future developments quite often. Solutions to these questions tend to be hazy due to (I) the missing data, or due to (II) the necessity to build long-term prognoses, which are - by their very nature - only remotely related to any current or historical empirical cases. Under these conditions counterfactuals and their specific - future- oriented - form: scenarios, offer a valuable tool. Nevertheless, counterfactuals and scenarios, due to their limited empirical embeddedness, demand explicit and rigorous application of a theory. The article highlights often overlooked resemblance of scenarios and counterfactuals and derives from this fact some methodological implications for scenario building enterprise. Beyond that, it aims at demonstrating possible contributions as well as obstacles inherent for the use of scenarios and counterfactuals in our defense policy debates.

This paper aims to enrich professional discussion on future shape of the Armed Forces of the Czech Republic (AFCR) and is linked to the preceding research and publishing activities of members of the Centre for Security and Military Strategic Studies (CBVSS) at the University of Defence. In its first part, it performs a historical tour to the year 2012 and highlights the reasons that the former leadership of the ACR led to the start of construction work on the concept of AFCR (KVAČR). Briefly describes the interconnection and the hierarchy of individual conceptual and strategic documents, the procedure works on them and summarizes the arguments supporting the need of KVAČR as such. The next section brings potential methodological approaches to the preparation of this document, using the method of the "9S", including practical examples, it renumbers basic strategic assumptions and priorities in various stages, bordered by years 2020 and 2025 as a prerequisite for formulating strategies for achieving this specific goal. Within the document, there is a short excursion into the field of long-term planning for major areas of skills, using their description of DOTMLPFI functional areas, including an example of using this methodology in project preparation of program funding. The recommendations formulated in the article are based on the authors' best experiences with the preparation of documents of a similar type in the years 2003-2013, the recommendations of experts from the broader security community of the Czech Republic, and recommendations of the Alliance. As such, it has been passed to the KVAČR processors at level of the General Staff of AFCR over the years 2013-2014.

This review attempts to analyze in detail the specific roles and interests of the key players represented by Pakistan and India in Afghanistan. The focus of individual actors in the South Asian region was focused on identifying key objectives, defining specific national interests and strategies in Afghanistan. The aim of the article is to find out, analyze, interpret and understand information about the power relations of Pakistan and India in relation to the security situation in Afghanistan. The content focuses on the analysis of Pakistan-India relations and their intertwining in Afghan society. The aim is not to relate the content to a generalized theory or known theoretical paradigm of international relations, but to analyze the aspects of the Afghanistan in relation to Pakistan and India.

The editorial board of Vojenské rozhledy Journal presents an article by General Staff Colonel (plk. gšt.) Tomáš Novotný, currently the Chief of the Department of Strategic Planning (J-5) of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Slovak Republic. This article was published in HORYZONTY BEZPIECZEŃSTWA Nr 8 (3) 2017 and it is available online at http://www.prawo.uni.opole.pl/horyzonty_bezp/Nr_8(3)_2017.pdf. The article is very closely linked to the subject of the contribution published in Vojenské rozhledy 3/2019, entitled "Religious Extremism as a Cause of Armed Conflicts: Indicators and Early Warning Systems", and in a certain way it defines its theoretical foundations.
This article briefly describes and puts together conclusions of the Copenhagen Peace Research Institute' key publications, which were released within the transformation of the Security Studies at the turn of the millennium, with conclusions of the UN Human Security Concept that was successfully institutionalized in 2012. Afterwards, the "Copenhagen School" methodology was applied on the UN Human Security Concept to identify a set of human security challenges and threats, which have been - after analysis of their causal relationship - supplemented by a causal classification. Most security threats create a causal link with one or more other security threats. This fact implies that there is a possibility to create a causal model (mental, graphic, etc.) of any security threat to simulate or to predict the consequences and successfulness / efectivity of a suggested security solution (securitizating or de-securitizating). As a practical subject of a security threat causal analysis was used the model of processes on the way "from a state failure to a terrorism manifestation" adapted to contemporaty situation in the European Union.

The main topic and focus of this article is to identify the most relevant indicators of the rise of religious extremism as an important cause of armed conflicts. A religiously motivated conflict is a relevant topic in modern security studies and research. Conflict prevention using the early-warning indicators identified in this article might be interesting for the security expert community. In the article chosen methodology is available with the recommendation to following research in the examined field.

The Armed Forces of BiH were officially unified in 2005 and are composed of two founding armies: the Bosniak-Croat Army of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Bosnian Serb Army of Republika Srpska. Even though the unified armed forces celebrated their 13^th anniversary in December 2018 and are presented as a success story, the political environment in Bosnia and Herzegovina, particularly in Republika Srpska, does not foster a sense of unity in the armed forces. The paper explores the vulnerabilities that the unified armed forces face, particularly in relation to the process of state building in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The text concludes, that the main concerns for the BiH armed forces include the old equipment, the economic problems of the country and budget constraints, politicisation and ethnicisation - while ongoing nationalism and the unsure future of BiH remain the greatest external challenges.

The article focuses on information and psychological operations as a challenge for the security and defence establishments of NATO member states. A conceptualisation of the terms 'information operations' and 'psychological operations' is discussed in the contexts of reshaping the war-and-peace dichotomy, and of resilience and deterrence. It is suggested that these terms suffer from a normative approach to the paradigm of war and peace, and to the use of non-military means. This may lead to the greater vulnerability of security and defence systems in confrontation with an adversary. Also, special attention is paid to the vulnerabilities of security and armed forces, being overlooked in concepts of resilience.

The aim of the text is to present the approach to assessing the military potential of the state as well as the will or possibilities to be used to achieve national strategic interests or power objectives. This approach is methodologically based on the sectoral analysis of the state's power potential and its possible projections in the construction and use of armed forces. The described and used approach in the Ministry of Defence of the Czech Republic is applied to the current Russian Federation and its military or power activities

The concept of modular forces seems to be an ideal solution for a topical dilemma: how to build a single set of units for a wide range of military operations. However, the concept of unit modularity has its limitations. The article explains how the modular force structure supports flexibility and consequently brings increased demand on the number of support units. For this reason, the modular force organisation cannot be built without massive investment in support capabilities. The concept of modularity includes the risk that shortage of support units will significantly limit the readiness of forces for a large conventional war. The author presents four recommendations for the application of the concept of modularity at a national level to facilitate the formation of allied forces.

Structured analysis is a systematic approach to solving intelligence analytic problems. Methodology and analytical techniques in the intelligence analysis include the selection of structured techniques from the point of view of the analytical task and the use of the analytical spectrum. Basic structured analytical techniques ensure transparency and reduce personality bias. Taxonomy is the basis for quality analysis. There are 55 types of techniques that complement expert judgment and intuition. A properly structured analysis contains twelve questions supplemented by a number of analytical techniques. The method of analytical spectrum in strategy leads to the split of the process into the phase of analysis, synthesis, selection of information and argumentation, and the analysis itself consists of four sub-stages. The basic parameters that negatively affect the use of structured analytical techniques by intelligence analysts are the analytical and collective approach, the patterns and the level of education.

Partisan and paramilitary groups operating on Colombian soil have been representing a serious regional security threat for the last fifty years. The most successful attempt to conclude a peace treaty between the government and the insurgents is represented by the peace process that took place between 2012-2016. This process resulted in the agreement between the colombian government and the guerilla group Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia - Ejército del Pueblo. This paper deals with the dynamics of the of the peace processes between the government and guerilla groups and analyzes the factors contributing to the escalation and deescalation of the conflict and factors that enabled or on the contrary disabled a successful demobilization of the insurgents. The analysis of the demobilization uncovered a number of factors indicating a contradictory acting of both sides of the conflict. While the adversaries were negotiating the peace agreement, in the same time they were violating the previous agreements. Such behaviour was caused mainly due to the absence of a strong sponsor.

The present article is devoted to the new kind of the Polish Armed Forces, namely the Territorial Defence Force (Polish: Wojska Obrony Terytorialnej, WOT), the essence of which is, i.a., territoriality. Among the many tasks facing this kind of military unit, there are the ones involving non-military threats.
By connecting the two basic elements mentioned above, the authors present in the following article the possibilities of using the Territorial Defence Force and the alternate process of administering the armed force component on a voivodeship level.

This article aims to highlight the most important changes within the transatlantic defense relations. The central argument is that NATO is gaining a conditional nature, transforming collective defense into a form of transactional defense. The study utilizes Paul Kennedy's notion of "imperial overstretch" to explain the strategic context of the transatlantic defense relations. After this, the analysis highlights how the transatlantic defense relations gained a transactional character that is resonating to this American "imperial overstretch". The second part of the study focuses on the latest developments concerning the US military presence in Europe and highlights their transactional character, thus enabling the emergence of transactional defense within NATO.

The goal of this paper is to determine if it is likely for Turkey to remain a stable country that will avoid serious internal conflicts and violent conflicts abroad. The paper examines long-term cultural and civilizational variables of cosmopolitanism and rationality. It examines indicators that are more immediately associated with the escalation of an internal conflict: violent criminality, youth unemployment rate, income inequality, corruption perception, and political terror. In the end, it examines the level of militarization and the evolution and current state of civil-military relations. It concludes that most of the indicators do not bode well for the stability and democratic consolidation of Turkey. The reason Turkey has not succumbed to political violence and social instability is likely due to its high level of political repression. Given the characteristics of the Turkish society, two basic scenarios for future development are feasible: Turkey can either become much less stable and a victim to social discord with a chance of dangerous escalation; or it will cement its authoritarianism and manage social order by draconian policing, disproportionate "counter-terrorism" laws and disregard for the rule of law. Neither of these scenarios is favourable for its NATO allies, who must engage Turkey and work within the framework of existing alliances and international organizations to mitigate the risks of Turkey either becoming a rogue player or a state embroiled in a civil conflict.

The authors' intention is to present findings to which they came while analysing the implementation process of the EU Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), especially in the area of EU operations planning and development of capabilities required for achieving the EU level of ambition. Only issuing the EU Global Strategy in 2016 and its subsequent implementation process seems to be a momentum for specifying commitments stemming from PESCO. At present, there is a list of common binding commitments which 25 of 28 EU member states have signed to. This list includes specific commitments as for development of required capabilities needed for achieving expected objectives of CSDP operations. Nevertheless, a very critical point related to the current PESCO implementation process is whether the present level of EU member states integration allows fully completing all highly ambitious commitments as declared by political leaders.

The paper deals with the process of radicalization in the armed forces in Central Europe, with specific focus on the Czech Armed Forces and the Bundeswehr. The author conceptualizes radicalization as a recent security threat and explains the specifics of the use of this concept in the armed forces. The most important historical legacies are identified and the current development cases and trends are analyzed and compared, including the specifics of various streams of extremism. Possible recommendations how to counter radicalization are included in the paper.

This article analyzes strategic engagement of the Russian Federation and the United States of America in the South Caucasus in four phases of development from the end of the Cold War until present day. The first phase covers early nineties, the second is from mid-nineties to 2003, the third from 2004 to 2008 and the fourth from 2009 to 2016/2017. There are three key trends during the examined period. First, Russia has permanent strategic interests in the South Caucasus due to maintaining its own state security and securing the position of the most prominent external actor in the region. Second, Russia's weakness and active engagement of the US/NATO are barriers to realizing Russia's state interests. Third, the South Caucasus is strategically more significant to Russia than the US/NATO.

Studies of the importance of culture have gained greater attention in the post-Cold War era. In present world, there are many fenomena that can't be explained in terms of neorealism. There is the consensus in national security policy studies that culture may significantly affect grand strategy and state behaviour. It limits behavioural choices, from which we could derive predictions about our strategic choice. This study is based among others upon Johnston's strategic culture concept related to three generations. The study is divided into five parts: at first the author introduces general concept of strategic culture, the second, third and fourth parts correspond to individual generations. In closing part the author explains his own understanding to this concept.

This strategy has received substantial attention and triggered the discussion about the future of U.S. security policy and America's role in the world. The article argues that American strategy is often misunderstood, particularly in the Czech environment. Obama's defence strategy and its foundations must be explained through the lenses of the balance of threats developed by Stephen Walt. Washington is balancing what it perceives to be the greatest threat to American leadership in the world. Threats are presented by emerging power of People's China, the situation in Middle East. Europe is not less important; it is still an important American ally.

In our country, existing strategical documents related to security used to be compiled very carefully, but proved to be not very effective, as they did not fit to practical everyday security policy, they did not comply with day-to-day requirements. The only exception was the 1991 doctrine dealing with the creation of Integrated Rescue System and the implementation of professional armed forces. At present, there is a tendency to rewrite those strategy documents again, namely in the field of security. The preparation of a new version of Czech security strategy is taking place in time marked with new trends in world politics and economy. The main attention is attracted by crisis management, arms control, disarmament, WMD non-proliferation, cooperation with non-NATO nations, and international organizations, last but not least counterterrorism and cyberspace security strategy. In short the study mentions Czech political-military ambitions, defence strategy, defence capacity and resources, it appreciates in value knowledge gained by the Centre of Security Policy, Faculty of Social Science, Charles University Prague, and it contains conclusions and recommendations for the preparation the 2011 Czech National Security Strategy.

The core of this article is lying in general delimitation of objectives, aims, and tools of state economy principles within defence department. It is the question of optimalization, leading doctrines and tools of economy of economy support of defence. The authoress proposes the system of optimalization of economy support of defence and economy and defence policy of state, its introducing into methods and practice.

Political extremists as an anti-system opposition present an impending threat to democracy. They use both legal and illegal methods of fight against society. In our country, all wings of extremist movement are present, even though the Czech Home Office suspended the activities of hard left and right organizations. The author holds wider concept of extremism. He classes among extremists also the so-called darkers and phakers and ani-globalist street parties, in which strange personages with anarchy background took part in. With them, there are subsequent forms of sub-culture tied: squatting, darking, hooligans, and graffiti. Among others, the author puts the stress on prevention. Anti-extremist policy must be complex: regulations and remedies are overlapping. The antiextremist precautions are accepted not only by state institutions primarily concentrated on inner security, but also within the bodies such as Ministry of Defence, Security and Information Agency, Military Intelligence and Counter-Intelligence, Office for Foreign Relations and Information, various educational, youth and cultural organizations.

At present, it can be seen a tangible progress in the NATO-EU common approach to deal with challenging security issues. Paradoxically, it has been economic recession in combination with growing danger of arising armed conflicts, specifically on the European continent territory, to start up the closer cooperation between NATO and the EU. Logically, the current security situation ended in conclusions that the complementarity between NATO and the EU became a real necessity and only interaction between the Alliance and Union?s security and defence policies could bring required effects, while upholding global and local security stability. The article is available only in the Czech language. For more information please contact editors.

It is a book review over the book by Prof. F. Ochrana (editor). Its authors tried to define dimensions and leading actors of the so-called strategical governance in the conditions of the Czech Republic with a special respect to strategical planning in public policy. Two chapters of this book are concentrated on military and defence problems. Predispositions for strategical control are backed by the creation and implementation of strategical documents. Among further themes discussed belonged also the White Paper on Defence. We specifically need single or comparative case studies that examine the process of formulating security strategies and their implementation, the interaction between respective processes at national and international levels, and the results of security policy implementation in respective cases.

The article deals with the evaluation of the state of oil security in the Czech Republic and measures, which should be taken to increase it. The attention is payed to the importance of the crude oil in the energy mix of the Czech Republic, its oil dependency and international cooperation in the area of oil security. Further, it focuses on the emergency stocks of the crude oil and petroleum products and to their use and to the oil demand restraint measures.

The article deals with the issue of methodological approach to scenario development. This paper describes the methods and techniques used in scenarios development both in civilian sphere and within NATO and the EU, with an emphasis on their role in the military capability development process of the armed forces. The article defines the usual scenario construction process and describes the location and differences of generic and specific planning situations. In addition, the principles necessary to create quality scenarios are described here. The conclusion of the article deals with proposals focused on the elaboration of a methodology for scenario building in the Czech Armed Forces as part of the project "Strategic Alternatives to the Construction and Development of the Czech Armed Forces", which is being elaborated at the Center for Security and Military and Strategic Studies of the University of Defense in Brno.

The paper deals with the concept of proxy wars in the region of the Middle-East and the role of intelligence services in it. In the current conflicts in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, many external actors and powers interfere using (not only) their intelligence services for the defence of their national interests in afflicted states, often even combating each other on a territory of a different state. The main goal of the paper is to introduce the concept of proxy war and analyse the role of intelligence services in the ongoing conflicts in the defined area.