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The article identifies new threats of global character influencing global security and quality of life. The inspiration is drawn from the debate over proposed updated Czech security strategy 2011, where several security scenarios were drafted. It is a free sequel to the study "Wild Cards in Future Development of World Security" published in this review in No. 2, 2008. The titles of some chapters are as follows: The Collapse of World's Monetary System and Global Economic Warfare, Crisis of Global Government, The Shortage of Key Commodities (oil, gas, coal, raw materials, water, foodstuffs), Migration, Organized Crime, European Union prior to Disintegration, The Crisis of NATO, New Religions, Will Rich People Live Longer?, etc.

The beginning of the second decade of 21st century is tied with distinctive dynamics and changes in global security environment. Among those changes belong security re-orientations of the United States from Transatlantic area to that of Pacific, East and Southeast Asia resulting from a new American military strategy proclaimed in January 2012. The US drew down from Iraq and Afghanistan, political and security movement in Arab world, after decades of "status quo" were awaking. The author concludes that the EU should be prepared for negative scenarios in the development of security situation, or to have at its disposal effective police and military forces with proper humanitarian background to counter possible instability, e.g. massive migration influxes, economy disorders.

Studies of the importance of culture have gained greater attention in the post-Cold War era. In present world, there are many fenomena that can't be explained in terms of neorealism. There is the consensus in national security policy studies that culture may significantly affect grand strategy and state behaviour. It limits behavioural choices, from which we could derive predictions about our strategic choice. This study is based among others upon Johnston's strategic culture concept related to three generations. The study is divided into five parts: at first the author introduces general concept of strategic culture, the second, third and fourth parts correspond to individual generations. In closing part the author explains his own understanding to this concept.

At first, we are familiarised with terms of extremism, Romanies (Gypsies), anarchists, neo-Nazis, then the author introduces possible picture of security situation at the turn of second and third decades of 21st century. He believes that in every country there is a limited ability to integrate ethnic groups by majority. As soon as the limits are exceeded, problems begin. His scenario ends with a pessimistic vision: increasing tensions will ask army deployment, but even local armed forces are not able to enforce law and order, therefore the government must ask for help neighbouring states.

The objective of this article is to analyse the security and foreign policy of the Russian Federation in 2008-2012, in terms of security culture. The article is based on the assumption that the Russian security and foreign policy during Medvedev's presidency was characterized by four features: promoting multilateralism, exaggeration Russian national security threats, emphasizing the possibility of the use of nuclear deterrence, and using energy as a political tool. The article is based on three Russian strategic documents, i.e. Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation, National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation to 2020 and the Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation. It also examines some events of Russian internal and external policy, especially Russian-Georgian conflict, Medvedev's proposal to create new security architecture in Europe, or the security relations between Russia and the EU, NATO and the U.S.

In the middle of Obama's first presidency, several waves of criticism turned up. According to some analysts, Barrack Obama's first presidency introduces the beginning of new world's era, the so-called "post-ethnical society". The latest discussions prove that the United States have been no longer the only world's superpower, they will remain in the position of world's leader, but still aregoing to substantionally influence global arrangement. Unsuccessful and protracted wars, reflecting serious economic depression with successive debts, effect military budget cuts, even though the American Armed forces are still powerful, potent and mighty power, all around the world, influencing word's events as a stabilising force. The study depicts political and security layout against American domestic political background.

In our country, existing strategical documents related to security used to be compiled very carefully, but proved to be not very effective, as they did not fit to practical everyday security policy, they did not comply with day-to-day requirements. The only exception was the 1991 doctrine dealing with the creation of Integrated Rescue System and the implementation of professional armed forces. At present, there is a tendency to rewrite those strategy documents again, namely in the field of security. The preparation of a new version of Czech security strategy is taking place in time marked with new trends in world politics and economy. The main attention is attracted by crisis management, arms control, disarmament, WMD non-proliferation, cooperation with non-NATO nations, and international organizations, last but not least counterterrorism and cyberspace security strategy. In short the study mentions Czech political-military ambitions, defence strategy, defence capacity and resources, it appreciates in value knowledge gained by the Centre of Security Policy, Faculty of Social Science, Charles University Prague, and it contains conclusions and recommendations for the preparation the 2011 Czech National Security Strategy.

Taking into account the prepared 2011 Security Strategy and the White Paper on Defence in our country, due attention ought to be paid to political ambitions and economy influence of emerging actors, both world and regional. In ten or twenty years to come we shall face basic transformation of international system. Today, there are four main global power centres: North America (United States, Canada), the European Union, China and Japan. The author of this study concentrates predominantly on their economy strength that is also a base of all sources spent on armed forces. Among emerging powers belongs above all India, regional power in South Asia, Brazil in Latin America, followed by Indonesia, Turkey, and Mexico. They together cover 52 per cent of word's economy production. Different interests give rise to various disputes, but they are able to act cohesively against e.g. decisions by G-20. Among other's the article is accompanied by the table comparing military powers of the USA and Russia.

This paper deals with various forms of Islamist threats to the Czech Republic, with specific attention paid to military issues. It defines the basic terms and describes the role of the Czech Republic in Islamist strategies. Threats of terrorism and jihadism, extremism and riots, violation of women's rights, including the so-called "honour crimes", and internal clashes within the Muslim community are analyzed. Contemporary situation of the Czech Republic can be characterized mostly as "logistic area" to Islamism. Even thought there is not an eminent danger, the intensity of several Islamist threats could be higher in the future. The primary purpose of this article is to form a basic frame for identification of prospective terrorist attacks by means of extrapolation.

The primary purpose for NATO enlargement, covering first three countries of the so-called Visegrad Four and later Slovakia, was the necessity to fulfil "security vacuum" in Central and subsequently in Eastern Europe which came into existence after the fall of Soviet empire. Membership of those countries helped to fix criteria for admission of other states to the Alliance. Today, the NATO alliance stands in front of new important challenge: to work out a New Strategic Concept agreement in late 2010, based upon the idea saying that the security of Euro-Atlantic region is tied with and depends on the safety of the whole world. This safety concept will able to be realized only by means of global strategical governance. More then predicting expected security and defence ideas, the author reopens a broader discussion about the real meaning of NATO membership. He also repeats and enumerates risks and threats we are facing today.

One of main task while preparing new security documents is to identify, analyze and evaluate newly emerging, self-generating security threats. They menace cybernetic, economy, bank, and religious security. The special menace, as for inner security it is lobbyism. Cybernetic threat is today regarded as more dangerous than nuclear strike. The American lived through those experiences in Iraq. Another example is cyber attacks on Estonia in 2007 that swamped websites of Estonian organizations, including Estonian parliament, banks, ministries, newspapers and broadcasters.The attacks triggered a number of military organisations around the world (including NATO) to reconsider the importance of network security to modern military doctrine. There is a paradigm: the more modern country, the more risks are opened. The situation is complicated by the fact that in sophisticated society there is hard to identify attacking enemy. The author underlines that we are the last member nation in the EU that has no official CSIRT (Computer Security Incident Response Team) to react cyber /terrorist attracts.

Czech dailies and weeklies publicised their analyses of the diplomatic dispatches released by WikiLeaks. Some were concerned in world's politics, but higher attention was paid to 1,271 dispatches from Prague. According to the dispatches, the U.S. Navy wanted to purchase 23 Russian anti-ship missiles to obtain the weapons from Belarus through Ukraine, with a Czech arms dealer. However, the Czech government decided to derail the plan by not granting the Czech middleman the needed permission to export weapons from a dictatorship like Belarus. Various cables also detailed a dispute in the area of arms technology. Some observations from the dispatches dealing with characteristics of Czech prominent politicians are amusing. Overall, the United States evaluated the CzechRepublic positively, as an economically mature country and as an ally.

The Provincial Reconstruction Team of Czech Republic operates in very complicated conditions and environment that are in fact hostile. It can't be excluded that growing scepticism, today common among Afghanistan security experts, more or less could affects even Czech members of ISAF missions. This study deals with existing knowledge end experiences of Czech PRT in Afghanistan. It is divided into two parts. The fi rst one concerns with outside and inside factors infl uencing ISAF missions. It brings in details characteristics of geographical, historic ambiances in which ISAF mission are performed. The second part concentrates on tangible experiences of Czech PRT members, both in political and military spheres. Here the authors summarize conclusions and upon them they outline challenges for the future.

The NATO's New Strategic Concept is only starting point to open discussion on a wide range of security problems. At the beginning there is a description of Czech home politics, attitudes of Czech political parties toward NATO alliance. The author explores the history of NATO's identity crisis. In recent years, different security optics of the members splintered NATO. The US wants an expeditionary alliance with a global reach, the Western Europeans hold to a vision of a regional club of liberal democracies, the Central Europeans have a wish so that Washington would stand by them when they will find themselves pressured by Russia. NATO is divided on how to reform its decision-making processes and how to fund and resource its home and away missions. In Afghanistan, the Alliance faces the most difficult operational challenge to date, with a real possibility of strategic failure. The overarching problem is how to define the core business of NATO: cyber defence, energy security, WMD proliferation, stability and reconstruction missions, out-of-area missions, territorial security, enlargement, partnership-building. The discussion over the New Strategic Concept needs to reorder the question how to define NATO's appropriate roles and go from there.

The author Jan Eichler works at the Institution of International Relations Prague, so those are the themes he is professionally involved in. His publication deals with security threats and their assessments at the beginning of 21st century. This second edition of his book is amended by several wars taking place since the first edition was released. They were wars between Russia and Georgia 2008-2009, Israel vs. the Palestinians 2008-2009, several conflicts in Africa, Columbia, and Sri Lanka; ISAF operations in Afghanistan; in Iraq the new attitude of the USA towards conflict solution. Somalia represents a typical failed state with warlords, criminal gangs, Somalia and sea piracy is a mutually tied problem the word community was not able to solve. Last but not least, there are dangerous activities of Islamists in North Africa. Even though those mentioned conflicts are only regional, their consequences are global. They therefore need the involvement of international organizations, the EU and the UN respectively.

In his new book, Geopolitics, its author Štefan Volner examines geopolitical theories as if through the prism of new images. It is in fact a free sequel to his previous books on political science. He puts geopolitics somewhere in between natural and social sciences, which is rather ambivalent attitude, namely in cases of using terms thermodynamics, chaos theory and so on. He mentions names such as Huntington, Brzezinski, Friedman, but surprisingly he pays his attention also to less known - at least in our country - Aleksandr Dugin, as a representative of 'new Eurasianism', a new ideology of present-day Russian 'national patriots'. In the second part of his book, Štefan Volner lays down theoretical and methodical foundations for forming geopolitics as scholarly discipline; the third part of this book is concentrated on the EU.

President Barack Obama came to power at a difficult time in America's history. Home and foreign policies are hard to manage, among others, as we are on the threshold of post-ethnic society, and in the war with terrorisms. Obama does not give up American leadership, but he is seeking to find the balance between security and liberty, between power and freedom in the world, broadly speaking. As the consequence, Mr. Rašek presumes emerging the new global security situation: the rise of multipolar world, divided into several new political spheres. This author's opinion is backed by comments by reputable world's political analysts. As far as Euro-Atlantic relations are concerned, or relations with Russia, there are excellent prospects, namely there is the progress with Russia on arms control-part of Obama's determination to put the world on a path toward nuclear disarmament. The author ascribes the drop in Obama's popularity to failed healthcare reform; outside the US, to the fact that Obama is not able to define clear goals and missions in Afghanistan.

The gravity of this article is laid down on the present-day state of affairs. China bought Spanish, Portuguese, and Greek obligations, i.e. China lent a hand to those countries (so did the European Union). In this way, China increased its influence in Europe. Stabilized Europe is necessary for Chinese export, it was not mere charity. Defence expenditures of People's China has reached 100 billions USED a year. Supposing the Chinese are intended to reach world's domination, they should stick to this kind of policy and they should not try to acquire the dominance by armed force. China behaves like an asymmetric power, knowing well that it can't surpass the U.S. by arms. China does not want to repent Russian mistake to be "over-armed" by America in futile arms race. Still, there is plenty of free space to compete with the U.S., e.g. cosmic or space competition, computer and Internet technologies.

The process of modelling the new multipolar world will last for several decades, its key features will be evident till 2020. The rise of multipolar world is as important as the end of "cold war", some twenty years ago. The author sees the United States as the only global superpower, but confronted with Asia, with leading power of China, and raising power of India. Russia and the EU are going to be only regional powers. He enumerates main geopolitical priorities of key world's actors: raw materials, namely oil, gas, water; intellectual potential, combat of ideologies, with selfconfident militant Islam. All variants are still opened. Military power will remain important for completing main strategical aims, alongside with ?soft power?, economic cooperation, and diplomatic ties. The author also mentions organizations and institutions less known in Central Europe: Shanghai Cooperation Organization, APEC, ASEAN, African Union, ECOWAS, Mercosur, last but not least Barcelona Conference and European Neighbourhood Policy.

The main Alliance mission is to "safeguard the freedom and security of its member countries" and to "deter and defend against any threat of aggression against any of them". Those general tasks are tailored today to changed international security surroundings. In May this year, a report by the experts group was released, forming the basis for further negotiations over the new strategical concept of NATO. The experts produced a document of first-rate quality identifying main tasks NATO is facing today. At the same time this document redefines prospective directions the Alliance should follow in the years to come. Without a broad popular support NATO's engagements namely off European territory couldn't be vindicated and justified. The same is true as far allocation of sources for NATO missions and developing military capabilities are concerned. So, the communication with public thus becomes a further dimension of this highest strategic document.

The world is changing, new centres of global development have come into being. BRIC stands for Brazil, Russia, India and China that have formed a bloc to challenge US dominance. The acronym BRIC was coined in 2001 by an analyst for Goldman Sachs bank who argued that, by 2050, the combined economies of the BRIC countries would eclipse the combined economies of the current richest countries. This new power politics is reflected by the team of authors Miloš Balabán and Antonín Rašek in a book mentioned above and therefore apart form the BRICK attention is paid to the Unites States and the EU respectively. The main purpose of their analysis is to predict prospective trends in global governance, they lay down four hypothetical scenarios of possible world's development.

This concept has been preparing since the early 2009. In short, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation must be increasingly prepared to intervene far beyond its borders. In the coming decade, NATO will have four central inter-related military missions. The first requirement is to "deter, prevent and defend" against aggression, so as to ensure the political independence and territorial integrity of NATO member states. The report insists on the need to send out military missions beyond the treaty area "when required to prevent an attack on the treaty area or to protect the legal rights and other vital interests of Alliance members". Any expeditionary mission must be based on the principles of the UN charter. Another key item is to cooperate better with those partners, and others worldwide, in order to tackle the new threats posed by cyber attacks, piracy, arms proliferation and energy supply insecurity and climate change. However, in order to achieve the new goals, NATO "must halt the precipitous decline in national defence spending", and to introduce reforms to make spending more efficient.

The new American doctrinal document called National Security Strategy (NSS 2010) was released in May 2010. Generally, NSS documents outline major national security concerns and plans. The NSS 2010 lays out a strategic approach for advancing American interests, including the security of the American people, growing U.S. economy, and international order that can address 21st century challenges. President Obama is stressing global leadership, dependent on strong and responsible American leadership directing it to ensure other nations follow. He urged Americans to revitalize their own economic, moral and innovative strength to continue to lead the world. The essay by Mr. Eichler is divided into two parts: first one deals with Bush's security policy, and second one deals with documents issued during Obama's presidency. There is a departure from Bush's security strategy that had led to two asymmetric wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. There are interesting nuances. The NSS 2010 for example declares the intention to build deeper and more effective partnerships with key centres of influence-including China, India, which represents among others Obama's retreat from policy of unilateralism.

This article addresses vital issues of possible threat of nuclear weapons in contemporary world. First, the general nuclear order-particularly the NPT regime-is briefly examined. Analysis proceeds to a critical exploration of the prospective use of nuclear weapons by small nuclear states and the so-called rogue states. Some attention is also paid to the conflict between India and Pakistan, since these two states are often considered as the most dangerous from perspective of possible use of nuclear weapons. The author considers the threat of nuclear war between great powers and then the threat of nuclear terrorism. His analysis suggests that deterrence between great powers is reliably working. The threat from rogue states is limited by technological difficulties in process of development and production of nuclear weapons and limits of small nuclear arsenals. Even though threat of nuclear terrorism should not be underestimated, this paper argues that technical obstacles and availability of other comparatively cheap methods effectively reduce the terrorists' desire to acquire nuclear weapons.

The article deals with the Declaration on Alliance Security issued in Strasbourg on 4 April 2009. The author enumerates its main items: reform of NATO structures, improving ability to meet the security challenges, strengthening cooperation with other international actors. Today we are facing global threats, such as terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction; our security is increasingly tied to that of other regions. Deterrence, based on an appropriate mix of nuclear and conventional capabilities, remains a core element of Alliance overall strategy. NATO will continue to play its part in reinforcing arms control and promoting nuclear and conventional disarmament in accordance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, as well as non-proliferation efforts. The author is a strong supporter of Obama's idea of world without nuclear weapons; he hopes that this notion will be also reflected in preparing NATO strategic concept. They are also further points to be stressed, e.g., a cooperative partnership between NATO and Russia.

This is another publication by Mr. Jan Eichler. It consits of three parts: the fi rst one defines nearly three dozens of basic terms in the field of security, the second one deals with wars in the 90?s, and finally third part concentrates on terrorism. The book has evidently pedagogical bias, with explanatory character. Under the influence of foremost sociologist Ulrich Beck, Jan Eichler interprets risks as ?social phenomena? derived from threats. The author also evaluates wars in Africa, Asia and Latin America, in Serbia or the Persian Gulf, which took place in 1990-2001. There were 120 armed confl icts, with 94 % victims from among civil population (compared with 50 % of WWII and 15 % WWI). In those wars bellingerent parties deployed weapons of all sorts, with the exception of WMD. As far as international terrorism is concerned, the author sees as its primary characterists the absence of warning before terrorist attacks are accomplished.

There are many items in American foreign policy the Europeans do not agree, namely its tendency towards "strong world leadership". On the other hand, the Americans would prefer stronger Europe, namely in time of world's economic crisis when US defence expenditures are practically frozen, and when pre-emptive strategy by president Bush exhausted most of American sources. Even the Europeans feel that they should profile themselves as independent, strong power, but their Common Foreign and Security Policy is still more political declaration than really military strategy. Many security experts suggest that the Lisbon Treaty excludes NATO membership as far as questions concerning defence are concerned. NATO alliance still expects new strategy that ought to be approved in December 2010. The authors predict the necessity to strengthen the so-called Second Pillar of the EU, as the United States are going to be more oriented towards cooperation with Japan, South Korea and Australia. We must bear it in mind, drawing up long-term visions of Czech Security policy.

The document "A Secure Europe in a Better World" approved in 2003 has introduced the so-called the European Security Strategy. The authors use this framework to refer to the whole set of organisations, people and activities, both military and civilian, to ensure capabilities to be delivered effectively and efficiently, both in current surroundings and in preparation for the future. They are members of the Centre for Social and Economic Strategies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University Prague, which has conducted a wide-ranging research work to detect the long-term trends, factors and actors shaping the position of the Czech Republic in European environment. The article illustrates the evolution of the key structural factors affecting change over the two decades to come-demography, the economy, energy, the environment, science and technology-and addresses some of the main questions concerning the future of the international system.

The study analyzes the key features of Russian policies in the late 2000s and their prospective developments. It is above all the rise of Russia's economic power, boosted by the favourable rising trend of energy prices (oil and gas) that has helped to resume again the position of one of the key world powers, obsessively pursuing its geopolitical interests in a new emerging multipolar world. This also determines its relations with other major global actors, e.g. the U.S., the EU, and China (outlined in this article). As far as military budget is concerned, it is increasing. Russia has overcome a long period of stagnancy. After 2007, they re-established strategical patrol flights off Russian territory; great effort is aimed at power projection, as a means to secure natural resources beyond Russian boarders. The study is closed by Russia's geopolitical prospects till the year 2020. and its Anticipated Development

In February 2008 the Security Forum took place in Slovakian city Banská Bystrica. The collection of 32 presented papers was issued by Matěj Bél University. This review summarizes main ideas of those papers, in a form of cross-section study. The reviewer finds most inspirative Maersheimer?s neorealistic theory of stability, classifying bipolarity above multipolarity, which is reflected in consequent evaluation of security threats. New security threats ask for the transformation of NATO alliance, in the background of political Islam or the recent Russian-Georgian conflict. The contents analysis of presented papers points to main hidden problem lying behind all security questions: whether the U.S. would be able to continue in its role as a world leader, explicitly owing to American economy difficulties, e.g. today?s financial and mortgage crisis.