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Czech Military Review

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Results 241 to 270 of 4959:

EUFOR Starts in Africa the Most Demanding Military Operations in EU History (Operation EUFOR Tchad/RCA)

Informational pages

Pplk. Ing. Jaroslav Průcha

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 100-107

The situation in Chad, republic in north central Africa, could be characterized by permanent political instability. Its population consists of numerous ethnic groups. Arab peoples are important in the north and east, and black African peoples dominate in the south, estimated population of Chad is nearly 10 million, with 250,000 refugees, 190,000 internally displaced persons, 40,000 persons live in camps. The area of planned operation is three times larger then the area of the Czech Republic. On 25 September 2007, the Security Council, by its resolution 1778, approved the establishment in Chad and the Central African Republic, in concert with the European Union, of a multidimensional presence intended to help create the security conditions conducive to a voluntary, secure and sustainable return of refugees and displaced persons. The multidimensional presence shall include a United Nations Mission in the Central African Republic and Chad (MINURCAT). It is going to be the largest military operation of the EU outside European territory.

De-escalation of the War at Ukraine, and Its Resolution by International Security Organisations.

Reviewed - Review

Ing. Zbyněk Dubský, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2016, Vol. XXV. (LVII.): 3-20 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.25.2016.03.003-020

The article is aimed on the identification of the tools of the international security organisations (NATO, European Union, Organisation for security and Cooperation in Europe) for de-escalation and resolution of the violent conflict in Ukraine. It is based on the liberal institucionalism. It characterizes and systematises tools and divides it into "soft power" and "hard power" tools. It is analysed the possibility of the use of armed forces as a coercive tool or in peacekeeping or monitoring missions. The NATO and the EU became involved in coercive diplomacy, the OSCE as a "soft power" becomes involved in mediation of the conflict in eastern Ukraine and dispatched long time missions. All three analysed organisations used the tools without placing of armed forces.

Experience from Canceled Sajkovac Base Extend the Czech Armed Forces Engineer Capabilities

Nonreviewed - Review

npor. Ing. Jan Hanudeľ, plk. doc. Ing. Pavel Maňas Ph.D., mjr. Ing. Jiří Štoller Ph.D., pplk. v.z. Ing. Vojtěch Hanudeľ

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2016, Vol. XXV. (LVII.): 102-113

The article deals with experience in closure of military bases in foreign operations. It follows in article Life cycle of military bases in foreign operations, published in Vojenské rozhledy Nr. 4/2009. The text of article presents current knowledge about the life cycle of military bases and general principles from the perspective of the latest NATO Handbook. The theoretical part of the article introduces weighting method of decision analysis, which compares current ways for the field bases closure. Authors describe findings from base closure Šajkovac that significantly influenced removal activities.

Cyber War in Perspective: Russian Aggression against Ukraine

Nonreviewed - Other

JUDr. Jakub Harašta, Mgr. MgA. Jakub Míšek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2016, Vol. XXV. (LVII.): 151-153

Research of Al-Qa'ida Has Never been Easier: an Overview of the Sources of Primary Data

Nonreviewed - Other

Mgr. Petr Zelinka

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 46-60

There has never been so much primary data on al-Qa'ida publicly available. Nevertheless primary data are still not used enough, despite the fact that their omission had a clearly detrimental effect on the quality of research on al-Qa'ida. The article's goal is twofold: to lay out an overview of the publicly available sources of primary data on al-Qa'ida and by highlighting interesting aspects of their content to demonstrate their usefulness for the research in general. The article deals particularly with outputs of public institutions, al-Qa'ida's members' publications, al-Qa'ida's members' communication that has been made public and leaked classified information. The topic how to use the sources of primary data will be discussed briefly. The article aims at encouraging the academic and expert community to use primary data more broadly when researching al-Qa'ida.

The Preparation of the Armed Forces of the SR for International Crisis Management Operations in the Context of NATO Lisbon Strategy

Informational pages

Doc. dr. Ladislav Lašček, CSc., Ing. Alojz Flachbart

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 103-110

Supported by published materials and information (LaunchingEUBattleGroups, AsecureEuropeinabetterworld), the authors analyze and evaluate some of the processes in the field of preparation and forming international crisis management. Both NATO Lisbon strategy and the Programme Declaration of the Slovak Republic open new roles and missions of Slovak Army. The Slovak Army must fulfil those commitments even in limited source frame. It concentrates on new priorities: the army is trained and prepared for missions it is going to be deployed in. Last but not least, apart of traditional missions, .the forces will be developing even non-military capabilities useful for peace missions.

The Lines of Operation Concept (Part II)

Military art

Ing. Ján Spišák

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 53-64

The fundamentals of this concept, as they were explained in previous Military Review No 1, 2011, have stayed unchanged, up to the present. There still exist operational bases, directions, courses, lines, upon which military convoys transfer by the plan or in disorderly manner. Such picture corresponds to linear wars of first, second and third generations. The wars of fourth generation are characterized by the speed and initiative. The frontiers between war and politics are blurred, so are between civilians and combatants. They are mostly wars with and among non-state actors, counter-insurgency operations (COIN) Based on doctrinal analysis; author describes concepts philosophy in functional and logical aspects. This might help the commander and staff to visualize the arrangement of military capabilities in time, space, and purpose to accomplish the mission. The concept might be successfully applied in connection with stability and COIN operations.

Critical Looks at Hybrid Wars Concept

Military art

Ing. Pavel Zůna, MSS

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 33-45

The term "hybrid war" is frequently used today within the military community, but the term does not bring something new in the view of the terminology of the stability operations, comprehensive approach or compound wars. This concept is based on the destructive threats to the military components of international community. It does not help in delimiting reasons of violent confl ict and from that point it is harmful, as it does not explain soldiers why they are fi ghting the "just war", why they should sacrifi ce their lives in confl icts far away from their homeland. We should not use terms of hybrid wars, hybrid confl icts, hybrid enemies or forces. Only "hybrid warfare" could find some legitimacy, but only when used with the correct definition of the conflict typology, backed by the political objectives of the war. Confl icts typology, as used, forms the framework for the mission analysis orientation at all command & control levels and it guides the informational support to the military decision making processes.

The Deployment of Capacities and Means of Czech Engineer Troops in Non-combat Operations

Military professional

Doc. Ing. Jaroslav Zelený, CSc., Ing. Jan Mazal, CSc., pplk. Ing. Lubomír Kroupa, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 164-178

The Engineers are specialist soldiers trained in the construction and demolition of bridges, field fortifications, obstacles, roads, etc. Their major task is to support Czech missions abroad, as a part of multinational peacekeeping forces. This article is a preliminary study into the current state of applying the Czech Engineer units in operations other than war as a part of Joint Forces Peace Support Operations. There are mentioned some aspects, for example basic engineer support tasks, possible demanded future capabilities of the Czech Engineer Troops, engineer support to movement and force protection engineering. The purpose of this article is to initiate a debate about the topic and to start the brainstorming process in a broad military environment.

The Americans Withdrew from Iraq and Changed Military Strategy

Informational pages

PhDr. Antonín Rašek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2012, Vol. XXI. (LIII.): 86-90 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.21.2012.02.086-090

American military strategy was preparing long before the US troops left Iraq. The published document reacted to circumstances after the end of Iraq conflict and planning withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014. Pentagton's analysis underlined the fact that in the following years, US forces would not conduct wars similar to Afghanistan and Iraq. Defence secretary Leon Panetta told reporters that American forces were going to be smaller but more effective, innovative and technologically advanced. In spite of budget cuts, military expenditures were planned larger in volume then in the last year of G. W. Bush's presidential term.

The Lines of Operation Concept (Part I)

Military art

Ing. Ján Spišák

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 38-49

There are two great interpreters of the Napoleonic experience, Jomini and Clausewitz. Both were interested in the application of military force to achieve political goals. The article familiarizes readers with Jomini's theoretical fundamentals of operational design elements, namely the lines of operations. Jomini left a great mark on the details of strategic planning: campaign planning, the selection of the theatre of operation, the base of operation, the line of operation, and decisive points. At the end of this process of selection was the final deployment for the decisive battle. Jomini's major contribution, then, was to provide the geometry of the battle space. In his investigation of the nature of war he developed several key operational concepts. As an operational art tools they help the commander and staff to visualize the arrangement of military capabilities in time, space, and purpose to accomplish the mission. The concept of operational lines is evolved in all operational functions in terms of ongoing military missions.

War Game

Military art

Ing. Jaroslav Kulíšek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 60-82

War game is a simulation of military operations intended to train military commanders or to test a proposed strategy. It is a game in which model soldiers are used to create battles, in order to study tactics. This article illustrates the importance of War Game COAs (course of action). It was tested against opposing force COAs. Such exercise will help to identify advantages and disadvantages and the key elements of execution planning for each COA. The lesson learned during OHQ CZE/SVK BG EU Staff Exercises that took place in Olomouc from January 19th, to January 23rd, and from February 16th, to February 20th, 2009 is that war-gaming (although time consuming) is something closer to "reality" than the "theory" in doctrines. The war-gaming practices teamwork, facilitates team-building and enables to share mental model COA. Commanders and their staff ought to be engaged in simulations and war games more frequently. All information and sources for this paper were drawn from unclassified materials.

EU Battle Groups' Deployability in ESDP Operations

Military art

Ing. Jaroslav Kulíšek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 31-58

Factors such as distance, destination, deployment demands, duration, represent key elements to determine logistics requirements. The EU BG concept necessitates considerable strategic air/sea lift and combat support capabilities, since EU battle groups are to be able to be deployed almost anywhere in the world, primarily in Africa. They have to deploy both troops and materiel simultaneously to its mission areas. Strategic airlift is the fastest way of deploying troops over long distance. The main challenge for the EU is therefore availability giant airplanes. A lack of suitable European transport crafts in EBalabáuropean airlift fleet is the Achilles heel to the EU BG Concept. The problem is that all aircraft available have only limited payload capacities and flying range. Although deploying by sea is more time consuming than deploying by air, EU member states have more ships available for strategic sea transport. The strict deployment deadline set down in the EU BG Concept means that ships and crews will have to be held at very high readiness.

Peace Operations

Military art

Plk. gšt. Ing. Jaromír Zůna, MSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2007, Vol. XVI. (XLVIII.): 41-50

The end of the Cold War was the most important factor determinating political and security realities in the world. Consequent development has gradually led to the significant reengagement of the former Warsaw Pact member states and other military alliances, especially into all form of peace operations. The Czech Republic is following the path common for the other countries in Euroatlantic region, being motivated by common struggle for enlargement this area of stability, security, democracy and peaceful resolution of crises. Hand in hand, with growing experiences from peace operations, the Czech Republic reflects specificities of national security and military strategies, as well as the level of declared military ambitions. Principal changes the Czech forces undergoing now are aiming at fulfilment basic principles of the Security Strategy of the Czech Republic. Participation of the Czech Republic in peace operations and operations outside the republic is becoming the most predominant form of deployment of our armed forces. Therefore, peace operations studies are more pressing today than ever before in the past.

Theory of Gravity in War on International Terrorism

Military art

Ing. Ján Spišák

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 47-64

Official objectives of war on terrorism are as follows: we must face theorist threats, prevent terrorist strikes; suppress the power of terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda. War on terrorism is not a classical or conventional warfare; the term is wide-ranging, covering longterm strategies of national importance. The war on terrorism and employed means are also a source of controversy. It is a question of adequacy of used tools. It is necessary to implement the new strategy of improving conditions in Muslim countries to eliminate their background supporting negative religious and political attitudes towards democracy. Outlined ways of "smoothing edges" in economical, social spheres can noticeably change hateful attitudes of Muslim population towards values of Western democratic society.

Will Military Deception Pass Away?

Opinions, controversy

Doc. Ing. Milan Kubeša, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 97-100

There are no military conflicts without deception, as it is among others a very cheap method how to contribute to the successful accomplishment of the assigned mission. Military deception (MILDEC) is applicable across a wide range of military operations. MILDEC can be conducted during all phases of military operations at strategic, operational, and tactical levels. It is defined as being those actions executed to deliberately mislead adversary decision makers as to friendly military capabilities, intentions, and operations, thereby causing the adversary to take specific actions (or inactions) that will contribute to the accomplishment of the friendly mission. According to he author, the operational deception is to be explained in more detail, basic rules are to be outlined, including fundamental principles and methods of deception for operational planning.

The Various Ways of Civil-Military Development (Concepts and Doctrines)

Reviewed

Ing. Pavel Zona, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 20-29

With the running changes in methods of modern operations within NATO framework, there are also changes in demands and tasks in the scope of civil-military operations-CIMIC. They are incorporated in many documents, such as the Comprehensive Political Guidance, New Concept of Civil-Military Cooperation or Field Manual 3-07 Stability Operations. The CIMIC capacities ought to be used for active impact on impending security situation, crisis development, impact implemented more sooner then crises might escalate to conflicts, eventually they could be used to halt the conflicts, in the places where they are a threat to Alliance security. We must create new rules of co-operations between civil and military sections, with the use of Alliance materials, resources and documents from conferences, seminars and field working shops. Today we have also abundant experiences that the Army of the Czech Republic, its CIMIC section, have acquired in preceding ten years.

NATO Structural Reforms in Practical Terms

Reviewed - Review

Ing. Josef Procházka, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 8-21 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.23.2014.02.008-021

NATO has been permanently adapting to new outside and inside challenges. Lisbon summit in 2010 is one of the very important milestones in this transformation endeavour. Since 2010, the Alliance has embarked on meaningful structural reforms with the aim to enhance effectiveness, improve efficiency of all NATO entities and make the Alliance fit for its purpose. The main objective of this article is to introduce the scope of NATO reforms and their expected outcomes. Furthermore, this article will assess real achievements and draw at least some lessons from a reform implementation process in order to establish best practice in reforming complex organisations.

The Position of the Russian Federation to Western Military Interventions in 1999-2011

Reviewed - Review

Mgr. et Mgr. Lukáš Tichý

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2013, Vol. XXII. (LIV.): 22-41 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.22.2013.04.022-041

On the one hand, Russia is among the countries which often criticize the Western-led military intervention. On the other hand, in the last twenty years, Russia has repeatedly approved using military force by the West against an individual state, endorsed by the United National Security Council. The main purpose of this article is therefore to describe and analyse Russian position towards four Western military interventions 1999-2011. Specifically, the article is focused on two military interventions without UN Security Council mandates (Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in 1999 and Iraq in 2003), the intervention with the expanded UN Security Council resolution (Afghanistan 2001) and the military intervention that was partially approved by the UN Security Council resolutions (Libya 2011).

Influence of Operating Environment Changing for Development of of Military Medical Service Capabilities

Reviewed - Review

plk. gšt. MUDr. Richard Kraus, doc. Ing. Milan Kubeša, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 159-171 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.24.2015.03.159-171

The following thesis focuses on the issues regarding deployment of medical forces within the shifting operational environment. It analyzes its development stages and considers their meaning and influence on current and forecasted developments of military health capabilities in the long run. The authors' fundamental research question is to be whether the changes to the operational environment's dynamics and scope will substantiate as the defining factors for ensuring interoperability with Alliance partners, for the purposes of developing new type of medical capabilities needed. Moreover, the importance of a rarely emphasized role of operational art in military medicine is discussed. Such tool seems to be a key element for the harmonization of strategic objectives with long-term tactical activities.

Some Remarks to Military Terminology

Nonreviewed - Other

plk. v. v. Ing. Karel Kozák, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 106-112

Threats from the East and the South as V4 Defence and Security Cooperation Catalysers

Reviewed - Review

kpt. PhDr. Jakub Kufčák

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 30-37 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.24.2015.04.030-037

Recent developments in security environment in the last two years re-opened crucial European debates such as the reform of the NATO architecture to address resurgent Russia to the East and as finding common European solution to migratory pressures that test both national capabilities and European solidarity. Even through the Visegrád countries do not always share common interests, the V4 manifests that it can play indispensable role in reaction to these developments. However, V4 still lacks actually proactive regional approach that would accommodate polish interests in order to keep informal leader Poland invested in this cooperation format. Polish elections mean one more challenging test for the V4 to coordinate positions before the crucial NATO Warsaw summit. Should this endeavor be unsuccessful, Poland could look to other formats that mirror its interests and threat perception more closely meaning that V4 would take a back seat with regard to NATO agenda. The task for the Czech V4 presidency is to produce practical results in ongoing ambitious project in defence cooperation so that is demonstrates the cooperation's 'added value.'

Overview of the Foreign Experience of the Influence of Additive Manufacturing on Development and Deployment of Military Technology

Reviewed - Review

Mgr. Jakub Harašta

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 64-71 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.24.2015.02.064-071

The paper presents the additive manufacturing method as a possible alternative to the current subtractive manufacturing methods. Based on literature survey, some of the problematic aspects of the discrepancy between the lengthy development cycles and rapidly changing operational demands responsive to current threats are identified. The paper also includes some thoughts on possibilities of solving inadequacies in the development cycles, as well as related logistical apparatus, by additive manufacturing. For the sake of objectivity, the last part is dedicated to deficits of additive manufacturing, being inherent to technology or possibly to be overcome by further development of the field.

Acquisition of Knowledge and Insights Gained Through "Lessons Learned" Process and Implementation in Czech Armed Forces

Reviewed - Review

pplk. Ing. Janka Kosecová, Doc. Ing. Milan Kubeša, CSc., mjr. Ing. František Grmela

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 72-85 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.24.2015.01.072-085

The process of the Lessons Learned in the Czech Armed Forces is not ideal for several reasons. One of them is the underestimation of the process by top management. Another one is the low level of awareness of the process, institutions, possibilities and importance of the Lessons Learned Process as a whole. The aim of this article is to clarify the Lessons Learned Process as a tool to support the organization. The first part of the article deals with the process of the Lessons Learned in the Czech Armed Forces including terminology. The second part of the article describes the factual implementation of the Lessons Learned in the Czech Armed Forces. It points out achievements as well as drawbacks during its implementation. In addition to that, it introduces the current Czech military publications dealing with this topic. The conclusion presents the description of some suggestions and recommendations for further development of this process.

Output Specifics of Rapid Map Products within the Framework of Geospatial Support at a Strategic Level

Reviewed - Review

plk. Ing. Vladimír Kovařík, MSc. Ph.D., pplk. Ing. Jan Marša, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 106-120 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.23.2014.01.106-120

This paper deals with a geospatial support at a strategic level, especially with the production of rapid map products, presenting at this level the most required product type. Backed by their own working experiences from both NATO and EU command structures, the authors describe requirements for geospatial products created at a strategy level, emphasizing the importance of respecting the general cartographic principles. The authors compare the general technology of thematic map production, making use of Geographic Information System, technology, with the technology specific to the strategic level. They also describe the specifics of production at that level, presenting examples both similarities and differences between geospatial support in NATO and the EU.

Basic Elements of Modular Force Structures

Reviewed - Review

Podplukovník Ing. Radek Dubec, Ph.D., Ing. Ján Spišák

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2013, Vol. XXII. (LIV.): 27-40 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.22.2013.03.027-040

Článek je shrnutím výsledků řešení projektu obranného výzkumu STRUKTURA: Tvorba modulárních struktur úkolových uskupení pro celé spektrum operací a jejich ověřování s využitím tvorby koncepcí a experimentování - CD&E. Je zaměřen na objasnění problematiky definování modulů jako základního prvku modularity a možné přístupy k výběru hodnocení a formování modulárních úkolových uskupení. Cílem článku je pojednat o možnostech tvorby úkolových uskupení a generování sil v podmínkách definovaných a popsaných scénářů. Hlavní části článku vymezují determinanty organizace modulárních struktur a jejich popis.

Dlouhodoby vyhled pro obranu 2030 - pohled zevnitr

Nonreviewed - Research

PhDr. Mgr. Jakub Landovský, Ph.D., Mgr. Lukáš Dyčka, Mgr. Riegl Martin, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 3-7

Conceptual Development of the AFCR - Approaches and Strategic Starting Points

Reviewed - Review

Ing. František Mičánek, Ing. Josef Procházka, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 4-19 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.24.2015.01.004-019

This paper aims to enrich professional discussion on future shape of the Armed Forces of the Czech Republic (AFCR) and is linked to the preceding research and publishing activities of members of the Centre for Security and Military Strategic Studies (CBVSS) at the University of Defence. In its first part, it performs a historical tour to the year 2012 and highlights the reasons that the former leadership of the ACR led to the start of construction work on the concept of AFCR (KVAČR). Briefly describes the interconnection and the hierarchy of individual conceptual and strategic documents, the procedure works on them and summarizes the arguments supporting the need of KVAČR as such. The next section brings potential methodological approaches to the preparation of this document, using the method of the "9S", including practical examples, it renumbers basic strategic assumptions and priorities in various stages, bordered by years 2020 and 2025 as a prerequisite for formulating strategies for achieving this specific goal. Within the document, there is a short excursion into the field of long-term planning for major areas of skills, using their description of DOTMLPFI functional areas, including an example of using this methodology in project preparation of program funding. The recommendations formulated in the article are based on the authors' best experiences with the preparation of documents of a similar type in the years 2003-2013, the recommendations of experts from the broader security community of the Czech Republic, and recommendations of the Alliance. As such, it has been passed to the KVAČR processors at level of the General Staff of AFCR over the years 2013-2014.

How to Ensuere Population Protection During Endangering of the State, and the State of War?

Nonreviewed - Research

Ing. Jiří Halaška, Ph.D., prof. MUDr. Leoš Navrátil, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 58-67 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.24.2015.04.058-067

The lecture discusses the possible forms and methods for further development of Population protection, focusing on implementation of measures to protect the population at higher crisis status. The aim of the lecture is to analyze possible priorities, resources, and procedures for population protection in serious and large-scale crisis situations using all available forces and capabilities of the State and citizens. The work also deals with the possibility of more effective measures of population protection during announcement of higher crisis status generating additional forces and means and methods for the management of these measures. The aim of the work is among other things to point out the fact that the measures of population protection must be prepared in perspective and comprehensive and must reflect the potential risks, including the large scale crisis, which may be occur in the territory.

Back to the Future: Counterfactuals and Scenarios in Defense Research and Planning

Reviewed - Review

RNDr. Jan Kofroň, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 48-61 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.24.2015.03.048-061

Defense planning and research has to engage with questions about future developments quite often. Solutions to these questions tend to be hazy due to (I) the missing data, or due to (II) the necessity to build long-term prognoses, which are - by their very nature - only remotely related to any current or historical empirical cases. Under these conditions counterfactuals and their specific - future- oriented - form: scenarios, offer a valuable tool. Nevertheless, counterfactuals and scenarios, due to their limited empirical embeddedness, demand explicit and rigorous application of a theory. The article highlights often overlooked resemblance of scenarios and counterfactuals and derives from this fact some methodological implications for scenario building enterprise. Beyond that, it aims at demonstrating possible contributions as well as obstacles inherent for the use of scenarios and counterfactuals in our defense policy debates.

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