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Development and Change of the Concept of Hybrid WarReviewed - ReviewRichard StojarVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2017, Vol. XXVI. (LVIII.): 44-55 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.26.2017.02.044-055 The aim of the paper is description and analysis of the transformation of the concept of hybrid war. The Russian intervention in Ukraine in 2014 meant principal re-definition of the concept which is reflected in the contemporary views on the hybrid wars and hybrid threats. The concept of hybrid war had been questioned in the past already as his validity and the efforts to be applied on the past conflicts deformed its innovative content. One could argue, that adding new dimensions and topic such as economic factors, ideological activity etc. brings risk of concept´s expansion which goes far behind of the framework of the phenomenon of the war and the use of armed forces in the armed conflicts. The author draws attention to the fact that the definition of hybrid war tends to be subordinate to the current needs, which in turn only hinders their explanation potential. |
From Bombing to Targeted Killings: Transformations of the US Fighting Against Global TerrorismReviewed - ReviewJan Eichler, Kristýna StejskalováVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2017, Vol. XXVI. (LVIII.): 75-88 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.26.2017.01.075-088 The aim of the article is to compare foreign policy of G. W. Bush jr. and Barack Obama in terms of use of military force. Transition from ground operations to targeted killings is demonstrated on three military operations - Operation Enduring Freedom, Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Inherent Resolve. The shift from bombers to drones had several reasons, mainly changing features of the threat. Authors are asking questions why and how did change the US fight against global terrorism with respect to military technologies and how is this change reflected in US fight against the threat of Islamic state. |
Human Resources of the Mobilization of the Czech Armed Forces at the Beginning of the 21st CenturyReviewed - ReviewPetr DosoudilVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2021, Vol. XXX. (LXII.): 52-66 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.30.2021.01.052-066 The article focuses on identifying the key factors of human resources within the Czech state needed to carry out mobilization of the armed forces in case of a military conflict. It primarily answers the questions of whether these factors are sufficient and can be used effectively in the mobilization process. It addresses the issue of military records, sustainability of military reserves and their profitability. It also deals with the influence of secondary factors on the possibilities of creating and training reserves, especially the motivation of citizens to defend the state and the physical fitness of the mobilized population. |
Some Military Consequences of the United Kingdom's Exit from the European UnionReviewed - ReviewAntonín Novotný, František RacekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2021, Vol. XXX. (LXII.): 3-26 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.30.2021.03.003-026 The article deals with some military consequences of the departure of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union (Brexit). To assess the potential impacts on defence and security of EU, a structured approach involving several methods was used in the analysis, which combines a search of professional publications, factors sensitivity analysis and testing of hypotheses. Based on the analysis, it was evaluated that the departure of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the structures of the European Union will take place without significant impact in the military field and does not pose an immediate threat to the security and defence of EU member states. Nevertheless, in connection with Brexit, there is still a certain risk of negative impacts in this area. |
Framing of Task Forces as an Outcome of Transformation of Force Using Scenarios into Capability RequirementsReviewed - ResearchZdeněk PetrášVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2020, Vol. XXIX. (LXI.): 3-19 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.29.2020.02.003-019 The aim of the article is to broaden scientific discussion held within the defence and security community on methodological approach to scenario development process. The author brings an innovative look at the concept of modular task force development, which is considered, in his conception, as a result of interconnection between capability requirements arisen from scenario analysis process, and respective type of force units being a part of the current military structure. The author´s approach to task force generation process, illustrated by a case study, is a synthesis of best practices and findings derived from national as well as EU and NATO planning processes. The proposed concept of the task force generation might be perceived as an effective tool for supporting strategic decision-making process. |
Qualitative Research on PESCO Projects Direction in the Field of CBRNReviewed - ResearchMiroslav Pohanka, Antonín NovotnýVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2021, Vol. XXX. (LXII.): 60-73 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.30.2021.04.060-073 Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) weapons still represent a relevant threat despite international treaties and regulations. International projects like the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) of European Union (EU) appears as a suitable way of the further development when considered both complexity and expensiveness of the countermeasures to the CBRN. In this work, basic principles of PESCO, limitations, opportunities and expected directions of innovations were searched. The final recommendations on PESCO projects in the CBRN field are founded on the reached findings. Recommendations and conclusions on limited PESCO efficacy on one side and opportunity to resolve weakness of the Army of the Czech Republic (AČR) in the CBRN by collaboration in the EU on the other were particularly described in this paper. Without the collaboration, the AČR will hardly reflect the progress on CBRN defense. |
Risk Management in the Armed Forces of the Czech Republic Development Planning ProcessReviewed - ResearchMiroslav Chylík, Josef ProcházkaVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2020, Vol. XXIX. (LXI.): 3-24 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.29.2020.03.003-024 The authors offer the research outcome focusing on the assessment of risk management practices applied in the Armed Forces development planning process. Based on analytical outcomes, contemporary theory and best practices authors outline comprehensive approach to risk management within the Armed Forces development planning process. The purpose of the article is to enhance effectiveness of existing managerial process and elevate risk management from rather administrative exercise to effective management tool in the time of growing level of uncertainty. As the most suitable instrument, the Risk Management Plan is developed including the necessary implementation measures within the Armed Forces of the Czech Republic. |
How Far is the World to Achieve World Peace and Why?Reviewed - ReviewMartin HavlíkVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2020, Vol. XXIX. (LXI.): 76-91 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.29.2020.02.076-091 The main goal of this article is to discuss in the context of selected security intentions the world peace as an idealistic phenomenon, which is determined by many factors in the current dynamically changing environment. The intention is not to compare individual philosophical theories, but to provide selected synthetic security indicators that can help measure the state of the security environment. On the basis of these arguments, we can observe a downward trend in the rate represented, also linked to an increase in the activities of terrorist groups and generally transnational threats. The article also highlights the current relatively rigid role of the UN in relation to global peace. The international community and world peace are particularly influenced by the mutual relations and the rivalry of the superpowers. In future conflicts, the transition from the physical form of the battlefield to the imaginary platform, represented mainly by cyber space, will be more evident. |
The Process Approach to Human Resource Management in the Czech MoDNonreviewed - OtherFrantišek MičánekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2021, Vol. XXX. (LXII.): 168-183 The article is a creative elaboration and proposal for optimization of selected activities of the human resources management process in the Ministry of Defense, which have a fundamental influence on achieving the set goals of personnel policy of the Ministry of Defense. The article builds on the analysis of the "status quo" of the human resource management in the Ministry of Defense, carried out with the help of dimensional and stakeholder analysis, sector analysis PESTLE-M, and questionnaire survey with a sample of officers (students of career courses KVD and KGŠ). It also uses the results of capability-based scenario, on which a prediction of the future needs of personnel and financial resources is calculated and demonstrated. For selected activities of the human resources management process their possible content is discussed, as well as the effects (or the necessity to set them accordingly) of internal and external process controllers. |
American Military Doctrines of New GenerationReviewed - ReviewJan EichlerVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2020, Vol. XXIX. (LXI.): 3-19 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.29.2020.01.003-019 The article is based on the neorealist theory and is aimed to the analysis of the military doctrines of the USA published between 2012 - 2018. It evaluates them as the consequence of important changes after the end of the Cold War, namely the process of the enlargement of NATO. The article explains the US doctrines as a manifestation of a reinforced military self - esteem of the USA and warns that these doctrines should lead to an increase of the military tension at the Eastern frontier of the enlarged NATO. |
Military Scenario DevelopmentReviewed - ReviewMarius Titi PotirnicheVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. MC/2017, Vol. XXVI. (LVIII.): 33-39 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.26.2017.05.033-040 The global security environment brings forward different and surprising challenges for the armed forces, which require a good training and preparation. One way of sorting out the endeavour is using scenarios, the concept used extensively in the military field, the military field being the initiator of this concept. Military scenario development is the subject of this article, which is going to bring some essential characteristics and propose a working option for elaborating a scenario. The final aim is to help military planners have a good working procedure when developing a scenario in order to create a document updated with warfare evolution and operational planning process ready to respond to all risks and threats. The scenario is a way used by military structures at all levels of military art (strategical, operational and tactical) to get in contact with a probable unknown situation, to assimilate it and to sort it out. The article focuses on the scenario development process and proposes stages and activities that should be followed by a joint operational group when tasked with preparing a scenario. |
Unmanned Ground Vehicle as a Force Multiplier in Urban OperationsNonreviewed - OtherJaroslav MatejkaVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2017, Vol. XXVI. (LVIII.): 119-134 The article discusses advanced aspects in urban operations for presumed military robotics applications. The rise of city population and increasing number of cities stands new treats for warfare. First part of the article reminds steep rise of population and populated urban areas, dangers for today's deployed troops are shortly discussed in the second part, outlining some features there. Results lead to a possible solution of upgrading combat-space awareness, multiplying firepower capacity and combat support. Two examples of Unmanned Ground Vehicles in next part present the possible way of future development and finally conclusion outlines required characteristics for these UGVs during urban operations. |
Conceptual Development of the AFCR - Approaches and Strategic Starting PointsReviewed - ReviewIng. František Mičánek, Ing. Josef Procházka, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 4-19 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.24.2015.01.004-019 This paper aims to enrich professional discussion on future shape of the Armed Forces of the Czech Republic (AFCR) and is linked to the preceding research and publishing activities of members of the Centre for Security and Military Strategic Studies (CBVSS) at the University of Defence. In its first part, it performs a historical tour to the year 2012 and highlights the reasons that the former leadership of the ACR led to the start of construction work on the concept of AFCR (KVAČR). Briefly describes the interconnection and the hierarchy of individual conceptual and strategic documents, the procedure works on them and summarizes the arguments supporting the need of KVAČR as such. The next section brings potential methodological approaches to the preparation of this document, using the method of the "9S", including practical examples, it renumbers basic strategic assumptions and priorities in various stages, bordered by years 2020 and 2025 as a prerequisite for formulating strategies for achieving this specific goal. Within the document, there is a short excursion into the field of long-term planning for major areas of skills, using their description of DOTMLPFI functional areas, including an example of using this methodology in project preparation of program funding. The recommendations formulated in the article are based on the authors' best experiences with the preparation of documents of a similar type in the years 2003-2013, the recommendations of experts from the broader security community of the Czech Republic, and recommendations of the Alliance. As such, it has been passed to the KVAČR processors at level of the General Staff of AFCR over the years 2013-2014. |
Actionable Intelligence - Supporting Instrument for Commander's Decision-making ProcessReviewed - ReviewIng. Martin HavlíkVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2016, Vol. XXV. (LVII.): 61-72 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.25.2016.01.061-072 This article describes the doctrinal determination and definitions of the term Actionable Intelligence and the impact of this specific intelligence concepton commander's decision-making process. The part of this report deals with the position of Actionable Intelligence in intelligence branch, concretely in connection with the intelligence disciplines and particular stages within intelligence cycle. There is also the accentuation of interconnection to the importance of intelligence information sharing, early warning systems and force protection on tactical level. The next part of this article is focused on the impact of intelligence support on commander's decision-making processes. |
Uvodni slovo 1. zastupce nacelnika Generalniho stabu ACRNonreviewedGenerálporučík Mgr. Ing. Jaromír ZŮNA, Ph.D. MSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. MC/2020, Vol. XXIX. (LXI.): 5-6 |
The Siege of Marawi, the impulse to change the capabilities of the Philippine armed forcesReviewed - ReviewLibor KutějVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2019, Vol. XXVIII. (LX.): 41-54 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.28.2019.03.041-054 In May 2017, Islamists of the South-Philippine Separate Groups of Abu Sajyaf and Maute occupied Marawi City in Mindanao. Five-month fighting was attended by more than 3,000 armed forces against about 1,000 jihadists. Dozens of foreign fighters took part in the fighting on the Islamists side and confirming the pan-Islamic ethos of the Islamic state's ideology in this part of the world. Philippine troops were not prepared for the character of fighting in urbanized environment against motivated and experienced militants. The shortcomings were manifested in the conducting of operations in a heavily built-up area, but also in low-level coordination and limits of capabilities of the technical intelligence. It was decided to create Special Operations Command to which all Philippine special purpose forces are subordinated. The conflict experience has initiated a change of doctrinal approach that focuses on air support to reduce losses due to inaccurate bombing and acquisitions of high-tech reconnaissance and weapon systems. |
Utilization of Galileo and BeiDou Systems in the Armed Forces of the Czech RepublicReviewed - ReviewJosef Rada, Viktor PecinaVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2020, Vol. XXIX. (LXI.): 36-50 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.29.2020.01.036-050 The article studies possibilities of utilization of Global Navigational Satellite Systems Galileo and BeiDou in the Armed forces of the Czech Republic. It analyses its advantages, weaknesses and assets the army. The study is grounded in knowledge and experience of the Czech military geographic service and supports it with comparisons with already implemented systems GPS and GLONASS. European project Galileo brings for the most part independence on GPS and direct influence of the Czech Republic. Chinese system BeiDou provides individual alternative, although with limited access. In combination with multiconstelation receivers, they can substantially complement the current structure, make more accurate measurements and lower vulnerability to jamming and spoofing/deception. AČR may utilise benefits of the systems with modernisation of devices a by participation in development projects of global navigation. |
Efficiency of Language Education at the Language Center of the University of DefenceReviewed - ResearchMária Šikolová, Vladan HolcnerVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2020, Vol. XXIX. (LXI.): 37-48 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.29.2020.02.037-048 During the period between 2016 and 2019, the efficiency of language courses was scrutinized by invention methods. In 2019, the language requirements were set to 14 958 positions in the Czech Armed Forces (60.69 %). Out of the given number of positions, the language requirement was met by only 6 414 professional soldiers, i.e. 42.88 %. The results of the language courses vary a lot depending on the required level of language proficiency; the courses designed to prepare the learners for SLP 1111 and SLP 2222 had the success rate around 60 %, however, the success rate of the courses for SLP 3333 was rather lower (38 %). Out of five groups of factors affecting the success rate, the relative significance of 22 factors was assessed. Most of the critically significant factors concerned the organization of language education; some of the critically significant factors were as follows: placement testing, flexibility of the syllabus and familiarization with the exam format and assessment criteria. |
Some Tools of the Czech Republic Security Policy to Prevent Proliferation of Nuclear and Chemical WeaponsNonreviewed - OtherMartin Fokt, Antonín Novotný, Pavel OtřísalVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2019, Vol. XXVIII. (LX.): 128-148 The article deals with selected international treaties, current agreements and international cooperation initiatives in the field of non-proliferation of nuclear and chemical weapons, in which the Czech Republic is represented through specific bodies or ministries. There is also a general description of the view and the specific military approach. The involvement of the MoD and the Czech Armed Forces in NATO structures enables to influence the strategic decision-making in the area of CBRN and thus support the current trends concerning forensic analysis, sampling of CBRN samples and response to new trends in the field of WMD elimination. |
Defense Capability and Armed ForcesNonreviewed - Otherdoc. Ing. Milan Kubeša, CSc., plk. gšt. Ing. Tomáš RakVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 68-78 The article aims at highlighting the dangers of long underestimating the need to permanently improve the defense capabilities to deal with current and future security threats. Authors suggest propositions on where to direct the efforts to improve the competence of the Defense to meet the Act Of Defense Requirements. The first part of the article describes, after brief analysis, the options of collective defense and explains the need to solve demanding tasks on own territory under national responsibility in parallel. The second part of the article describes the main thoughts of the theory of "territorial defense", which is missing in current Doctrine of the Armed Forces of the Czech Republic. Theory of territorial defense makes a foundation, upon which the preparedness of the Armed forces of the Czech Republic should be built. In the third part of the article the authors discuss the alternative of implementing the collective defense principle by building multinational joint forces, independent of national armed forces, in transnational responsibility of the coalition of member states, dedicated to the territorial defense of member states and to crisis response expeditionary operations. |
The role of neo-colonialism in the Evolution of Security Situation in AfghanistanReviewed - ReviewMartin HavlíkVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2019, Vol. XXVIII. (LX.): 26-40 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.27.2018.04.026-040 The main goal of this article is to depict the role of postcolonial theory of neo-colonialism in the development of the security situation in Afghanistan. The introductory part is devoted to defining the postcolonial approach. This part is followed by a definition of neo-colonialism as a modern form of continuation of colonialism. The next part is focused on the role of neo-colonialism itself in Afghanistan, in relation to the influence and interests of the USA. In addition, the paper outlines the main security implications as well as the distortions of Afghanistan's regional actors (Pakistan and India) as a result of US engagement in the region. The final part summarizes the essential information in the context of the theoretical requirements and signs of neo-colonialism in relation to the activities of the US and other state actors in Afghanistan and the region. |
Islamism as a Security Threat to the Czech RepublicInformational pagesDoc. PhDr. JUDr. Miroslav Mareš, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 118-128 This paper deals with various forms of Islamist threats to the Czech Republic, with specific attention paid to military issues. It defines the basic terms and describes the role of the Czech Republic in Islamist strategies. Threats of terrorism and jihadism, extremism and riots, violation of women's rights, including the so-called "honour crimes", and internal clashes within the Muslim community are analyzed. Contemporary situation of the Czech Republic can be characterized mostly as "logistic area" to Islamism. Even thought there is not an eminent danger, the intensity of several Islamist threats could be higher in the future. The primary purpose of this article is to form a basic frame for identification of prospective terrorist attacks by means of extrapolation. |
Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO): New Pillar in Building European DefenceReviewed - ReviewVilém KolínVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2018, Vol. XXVII. (LIX.): 20-35 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.27.2018.04.020-035 The establishment of the Permanent Structured Co-operation (PESCO) in defence in 2017 is one of the most important European initiatives of recent years, aiming at enhancing effectiveness in addressing security challenges and advancing towards further integrating defence cooperation within the EU framework. The article describes the genesis of PESCO and explains its functioning, including its legal framework, objectives, the role of the main actors and the dynamics of the whole process. The purpose of the article is to demonstrate the scope and strength of the more binding commitments that the participating Member States have decided to fulfil in the name of strengthening Europe's defence under the umbrella of the Common Security and Defence Policy. |
The Third and Fourth Generation Tanks And Their Role In Modern WarfareReviewed - ReviewJan Kleiner, Matyáš Bajer, Natálie ZelinkováVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2019, Vol. XXVIII. (LX.): 50-66 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.28.2019.02.050-066 Tanks and anti-tank weapons in modernized and innovated forms will still appear on battlefields in the next 20 years to eliminate armoured targets and personnel with the usage of precision-guided munition. The progress of electronation and digitalization of tanks allows better situation awareness on the battlefield and cooperation with other military assets. An active protection measures were introduced to protect the crew such as reactive armour, active defence weapon systems and composite armour. By establishing a safe perimeter with active defence systems, tanks can sustain the incoming anti-tank weapons. Hence is the U.S. Army currently looking for a replacement of 3rd generation Abrams tanks. The U.S. Army is considering in this case unmanned vehicle as well. The Russian Federation on the other hand enhances conventional tank scheme with modern technologies. Far too much electronation does not have to be necessarily due to the automatic loading mechanism always a step forward. |
Slovakia and Germany - partners in defence and security areaReviewed - ReviewStanislava BrajerčíkováVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2018, Vol. XXVII. (LIX.): 64-77 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.27.2018.04.064-077 The paper analyses goals of the Slovak and German foreign and security policy focused on their role in NATO as well as on the role by forming European security and defence policy. The paper deals with potential and opportunities for more intensive and effective cooperation between Slovakia and Germany regarding their security and defence policy orientation. It finds out that there are some important NATO and EU projects and initiatives, such as "out of area" missions engagement, battle groups building, Framework Nations Concept or a new announced project Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) to be used in the deepening process of Slovak-German security and defence relations. |
Approach to the Assessment of the Military Potential of the State - an Example of the Russian FederationReviewed - ReviewJosef Procházka, Richard StojarVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2019, Vol. XXVIII. (LX.): 3-15 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.27.2019.01.003-015 The aim of the text is to present the approach to assessing the military potential of the state as well as the will or possibilities to be used to achieve national strategic interests or power objectives. This approach is methodologically based on the sectoral analysis of the state's power potential and its possible projections in the construction and use of armed forces. The described and used approach in the Ministry of Defence of the Czech Republic is applied to the current Russian Federation and its military or power activities |
Strategic engagement of the Russian Federation and the United States of America in the South Caucasus: Four phases of developmentNonreviewed - OtherJakub MacoVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2018, Vol. XXVII. (LIX.): 125-141 This article analyzes strategic engagement of the Russian Federation and the United States of America in the South Caucasus in four phases of development from the end of the Cold War until present day. The first phase covers early nineties, the second is from mid-nineties to 2003, the third from 2004 to 2008 and the fourth from 2009 to 2016/2017. There are three key trends during the examined period. First, Russia has permanent strategic interests in the South Caucasus due to maintaining its own state security and securing the position of the most prominent external actor in the region. Second, Russia's weakness and active engagement of the US/NATO are barriers to realizing Russia's state interests. Third, the South Caucasus is strategically more significant to Russia than the US/NATO. |
Models of Proliferation of Rocket Technologies Used by Hybrid Actors in the Middle EastReviewed - ReviewLadislav KulhánekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2019, Vol. XXVIII. (LX.): 73-84 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.28.2019.01.073-084 Rocket technology occupies an elite position in the doctrines of hybrid actors in the Middle East. The thesis of proliferation of tactical ballistic missiles analyses four models - political, technological, substitutional and propagandist-psychological. An effective reduction of ballistic missiles and technologies has been identified in the political model, where sanctions and embargoes limit the proliferation of missile technology. In the technical model, which plays a key role, the limiting factors are those of development and dissemination of high-energy laser weapons. The substitutional model illustrates the application of tactical ballistic missiles as carriers for improvised devices. It is of marginal importance, despite covering targets that involve secondary damage. Studying the model of propaganda and psychology confirms the psychological effect on the population associated with the losses, but it does not affect the reduction of missiles. |
Prognostics Methods of Security PhenomenaReviewed - ReviewJosef SmolíkVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2018, Vol. XXVII. (LIX.): 3-23 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.27.2018.01.03-24 This article describes the basic terms used in prognostics (future studies, forecasting the future, prognosis, prediction, expert) and introduces selected prognostic methods and techniques which could be applied in security area (brainstorming, focus group, trend extrapolation, Delphi method, scenarios etc.). The basic classifications and prognosis typologies are mentioned as well. Particular phases of prognosis making are described too. For the Czech security community the prognosis making has an important potential whose outcomes (of particular surveys) should be manifest in following years. This text has only tried to outline selected methods and techniques for their potential application. |

