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The paper outlines several recommendations for strengthening the institutional framework of the analytical support function for credible defence management. Recommendations are drawn based on the outcome of the institutional research project named Strategic Alternatives conducted by the Centre for Security and Military Strategic Studies of University of Defence (CSMSS). The multi-objective research focuses on organisational arrangement of the analytical support function within the overall ministry of defence organisational architecture of several countries (Canada, Norway, Sweden) as well as the NATO structure and management (in this case, the main focus embraces the analytical support to defence planning). Analytical support to defence decision making process in these countries enjoys a long-term tradition which goes back to the period of WWII. The way the analytical function is understood is highly relevant also for the enhancement of credible defence management in the Czech Republic and its Ministry of Defence.

Since the 1st release of an internal ministerial norm guiding planning processes of activities and development within the Czech Ministry of Defence (MOD) presuming existence of Capability Planning Methodology, this document has not been established. This article offers selected theoretical starting points and, on their basis, it outlines possible a ministerial process tree focused on the capability process as a ground for its definition within Czech MOD conditions. Further in a framework of an added value model proposes possible internal structure of above mentioned process down to sub-processes level with justification of their purpose and mutual links. Formulating mentioned attributes of the capability planning process this article makes a contribution to set up this process within the Czech MOD.

The research described in this paper was conducted in the framework of institutional research project Strategic Alternatives (STRATAL) within the Centre for Security and Military Strategic Studies of University of Defence, The Czech Republic. Article assesses the development of Czech Defence policy in 2017 and first half of 2018. Authors analyse key change drivers in external environment (security threats, EU strategic autonomy, transatlantic link). In second step authors evaluate measures taken in political, military, administrative, economical and societal domain in response to key change drivers and highlight related risks to effective defence policy formulation and implementation.

This article describes the basic terms used in prognostics (future studies, forecasting the future, prognosis, prediction, expert) and introduces selected prognostic methods and techniques which could be applied in security area (brainstorming, focus group, trend extrapolation, Delphi method, scenarios etc.). The basic classifications and prognosis typologies are mentioned as well. Particular phases of prognosis making are described too. For the Czech security community the prognosis making has an important potential whose outcomes (of particular surveys) should be manifest in following years. This text has only tried to outline selected methods and techniques for their potential application.

The article brings a "Condition-If-Then" construct as a proven protocol for writing risk statement and its application into assessing risks related to capability gaps identified during the defense planning processAuthors discuss utility of "Common approach" and "Impact averse approach" to risk rank ordering as a tool for ordering risks according to their importance. Using the discussed tools enables the planners to run risk assessment that sets preconditions for prioritizing the Force Development Options (FDOs) and for minimizing the impact of capability gaps on conduct of future operations. The ORAMF and the application of the given protocol for writing risks are some of the building blocks of the defense planning process, offering a toolset for reinforcement of the defense planning of the Czech Republic.

The global security environment brings forward different and surprising challenges for the armed forces, which require a good training and preparation. One way of sorting out the endeavour is using scenarios, the concept used extensively in the military field, the military field being the initiator of this concept. Military scenario development is the subject of this article, which is going to bring some essential characteristics and propose a working option for elaborating a scenario. The final aim is to help military planners have a good working procedure when developing a scenario in order to create a document updated with warfare evolution and operational planning process ready to respond to all risks and threats. The scenario is a way used by military structures at all levels of military art (strategical, operational and tactical) to get in contact with a probable unknown situation, to assimilate it and to sort it out. The article focuses on the scenario development process and proposes stages and activities that should be followed by a joint operational group when tasked with preparing a scenario.

When planning and conducting tactical exercises of units and formations, it is often the case that aspects of long-term operations in a chemical, biological or radiological contaminated environments have disappeared from consideration of commanders and staff officers. The reluktance to "complicate the situation" in training may have different causes, but the continuing importance of CBRN defence is indisputable. The article discusses probable commander questions related to the effective management of subordinate units in a contaminated environments. Their answering can help to successfully fulfill defined combat tasks that have been disrupted by the use of enemy weapons of mass destruction, improvised devices containing highly toxic substances, or leakage of industrial hazardous substances into the environment.

Frozen conflict in Nagorno Karabakh has been representing a threat to the regional stability for the last two decades. Sudden escalation of violence in 2016, known as Four-Day War, spurred new discussions on factors influencing the territorial dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan. While adversaries explain the conflict as a reaction to military provocations or as a rally round the flag effect, this article explains the dynamics of the conflict through the influence of the third party - Russia. Russia considers the Caucasus to be its sphere of the influence and therefor aims to spread its control through strengthening strategic ties with both Armenia and Azerbaijan in order to prevent the West from projecting its power in the region. Russia's role of the superpower has therefor a vast influence on the Nagorno Karabakh conflict development.

The paper discusses the correlation between methodologies of conflict analysis and dynamics of international security environment and highlights the need to tailor these methodologies to the rapid sequencing of world events. The analytical approach starts with an overview on the general theory of conflict, whereupon the author focuses on the most widely used models of contemporary conflict analysis and summarizes the way they approach the same conflict, namely the recent events in Ukraine, in order to illustrate the advantages and disadvantages of each model. The final part of the paper develops, instead of conclusions, the correlation between the two analysed items and the way in which specific components of the methodologies can be adapted to the development of main characteristics of the international security environment.

In the light of neorealist theory, the Eastern enlargement of NATO satisfies basic feature of expansion: 9 former countries of the Warsaw Pact become members of NATO. USA as a Sea power reinforced its superiority at the detriment of the RF as a continental power. The annexation of Crimea, as a Russian answer, had intensified security fears of post - Soviet countries and of Poland and enlarged the space for external balancing of the USA. Author warns that a confrontational structure had become typical for the area or the Western part of the Post - Soviet space. It increases the number of military incidents, and, even, the threat of a direct military confrontation including a Russian use of tactical nuclear arms, being inspired by the Rogers plan from 1980´s.

comprehensive cooperation within reliable security partnerships. Thus, regional tailored military cooperation has gained more importance than ever before in order to tackle various threats and challenges and to strengthen crisis management capabilities. Therefore, Austria launched the Central European Defence Cooperation (CEDC) in 2010 to foster regional security cooperation and to promote modernisation of military resources. Two years later, Austria co-founded the EU Mountain Training Initiative, which closely coordinates training and education with the NATO Mountain Warfare Centre of Excellence in Slovenia. This paper aims at analysing and discussing current initiatives and possible ways of improving Central European security cooperation between NATO member states and Austria.

The article is based on the positions of neo-realism, namely in the works by S. Walt and J. Mearsheimer. It characterizes the key actors of the war in Ukraine, which is a result of a long-term geopolitical competition between the USA and RF in the Black Sea region. The NATO enlargement in the area is classified as a non-coercive Expansion by Invitation (articulated by the elites of the former member states of the USSR and Warsaw Pact), which has provoked growing irritation of Russian political and military elites and the following hybrid war with dramatic international consequences. Last but not least, the article analyses military incidents and resulting security threats and challenges.

The aim of the article is to compare foreign policy of G. W. Bush jr. and Barack Obama in terms of use of military force. Transition from ground operations to targeted killings is demonstrated on three military operations - Operation Enduring Freedom, Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Inherent Resolve. The shift from bombers to drones had several reasons, mainly changing features of the threat. Authors are asking questions why and how did change the US fight against global terrorism with respect to military technologies and how is this change reflected in US fight against the threat of Islamic state.

The future security environment through 2035 and beyond will likely be increasingly complex and both present challenges and offer opportunities to NATO military forces. Analysis of the future security environment indicates that forces will likely face challenges that could unfold in an exponentially accelerated and increasingly complex fashion. As trends converge in the future, there are twelve likely instability situations that could reach a threshold requiring the Alliance's use of military forces, including: weapons of mass destruction/effect use, conventional war, escalatory use of force, hybrid war, unconventional war/terrorism, global commons disruption, critical infrastructure attack, cyberattack, governance challenges, endangerment of civilian populations, pandemic disease, and natural/man-made disasters. However, there are also many opportunities that NATO military forces could seize in the future, including building and strengthening relationships, addressing emerging challenges, capitalising on innovative technology and ideas to maintain the military edge, and understanding and influencing the human aspects of conflict. Ultimately, to keep the operational edge today and in the future, NATO joint forces and partners will need to continually evolve, adapt, and innovate to improve their ability to act together comprehensively across all domains to communicate and achieve the political-military objectives of the Alliance.

This article deals with the research of the internationalization of conflicts, trying to examine this phenomenon from the theoretical perspective and as a definition. Then the term of internationalization of conflict is conceptualized in order to be applied to a chosen internationalized internal armed conflict. The text also deals with various actors intervening in the internationalized conflict. They are divided into external and internal actors, while their interventions during civil war can be multilateral or unilateral. The concept of the conflict internationalization is also compared with the concept of the proxy war. The closeness of both terms can be confusing for many researchers and their division is one of the important outcomes of this article. There is also a typology of internationalized internal armed conflict types in the text as well as identification of reasons for military actions against a neighbouring state in civil war. At the end, two case studies of Syrian and Yemeni civil wars are introduced to the reader in the framework of the conflict internationalization concept. The text itself is a conference contribution and it has no ambition of bringing new scientific findings and extending knowledge. Rather, it presents a general survey of the examined phenomenon, which can be developed and researched by social sciences based on case studies.

The paper assesses the conceptual framework for Czech defence policy formulation in the wake of a rapid change in its security environment after Russia's annexation of Crimea in March 2014 and the subsequent Russian support for separatists in Ukraine's eastern provinces and growing instability in the Middle East and North Africa. The article examines key measures taken in the political, military, administrative, economical and societal domains in order to evaluate the overall effectiveness of Czech defence policy. Finally, the authors offer several strategic level recommendations to enhance responsiveness and preparedness of the Czech defence system and Armed Forces as one of its most significant components both in short- and long-term perspective.

The article deals with some aspects of long-term planning in the sector of theMinistry of Defence. Its aim is to stimulate discussion about the methods and processes of long-term planning, to point out some shortcomings in the development of strategic documents in the past. The text also describes the basis for long-term planning process and particularly the role of long-term foresight. The author analyses lessons learned from the developing and implementation of Long-Term Vision of the Ministry of Defence document (2008) and tries to aply them in drafting a new document, The Long-Term Vision for Defence in 2030, is now being prepared under the leadership of the Ministry of Defence of the Czech Republic. He also highlights some of the theoretical principles for developing documents in the process of strategic management.

The article informs about the state service of professional soldiers in the Armed Forces of the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic. It compares the state service of professional soldiers in both countries mentioned and analyses the changes that took place in the Armed Forces of the Slovak Republic on January 1, 2016. With reference to the state service it deals with the career of professional soldiers in the Armed Forces of the Slovak Republic. It offers the list of current career courses in the Armed Forces of the Slovak Republic. It analyses and compares the career courses designed for officers of both countries.

After several years of reducing of the Czech defence budget there is a reversal and the Czech MoD begins to manage the increased budget especially for Czech Armed Forces capability development. The Czech Armed Forces is for many years actively involved in the process sharing multi-national capabilities of NATO. Among the former activities such as Smart Defence and Connected Forces Initiative, is also initiative Framework Nations Concept. This article analyzes the overall framework of this initiative, direction and development of this concept.

The Lessons Learned from the military operations and exercises as a system and process was introduced to the Czech Armed Forces in 2004. Since this time, it become a standard component of command and control, and one of the tools that generates impulses on the development of capability of the units and staffs, at all levels. The article discusses not only the achievements but focusing on the barriers that hinder effective development system and the lessons learned process. In the first part of the article, this loosely follows the article, published in issue 1/2015 magazine Vojenské rozhledy - Czech Military Rewiev, the authors focused on the basic principles of the process. The focus of the article is to analyse the current state of the lessons learned process with result, that one of the main problems is the misunderstanding of the process by some commanders and also analysis of the lessons identified on the strategic level. At the end of the text, the authors presented recommendations on how to overcome the identified barriers and ensure the further optimization of the process.

Successful protection against Weapons of Mass Destruction and Toxic Industrial Materials is a permanent and current challenge for the Czech Armed Forces Chemical Corps units and formations. Technical and technological improvements of the equipment and material as a result of defence development projects mostly contributed to enhancement of operational capabilities. In some cases, however, the required capability has not been changed or has been worsened. The paper deals with principal results of the study which the authors have elaborated in 2015.

This strategy has received substantial attention and triggered the discussion about the future of U.S. security policy and America's role in the world. The article argues that American strategy is often misunderstood, particularly in the Czech environment. Obama's defence strategy and its foundations must be explained through the lenses of the balance of threats developed by Stephen Walt. Washington is balancing what it perceives to be the greatest threat to American leadership in the world. Threats are presented by emerging power of People's China, the situation in Middle East. Europe is not less important; it is still an important American ally.

Crime prevention belongs among main and long-term tasks in work with personnel in the MoD Sector. It is organized at three levels: interagency, departmental and local. It is concentrated at decreasing risk factors that usually contribute to criminal behaviour. In the near future, when organizational structure of MoD will be optimalized, current valid documents dealing with crime prevention are going to be reassessed, so they could meet new requirements of command and control system. They will be more directed to problems of extremism, property-related crimes, alcohol addiction, drug and non-drug abuse.

The article deals with the contemporary form of terrorism, introduces selected issues and discusses the psychology of terrorism. Various forms and typologies of contemporary terrorism which occurs in different geographical and cultural areas and uses large scale of methods and tactical and strategic approaches are introduced as well.The main goal of this article is to describe psychological aspects of terrorism with the emphasis on the motivation and group dynamics of terrorist organizations. The staircase metaphor which allows thinking about the process of recruitment of terrorists is introduced as well. The article derives especially from theoretical socio-psychological and political findings.

Protection of the civilian population against the Gaddafi regime, it was a clear UN mandate for military intervention in Libya in 2011. Not only a new approach to leading the fight against terrorism after 11 September 2001, but also requires a change in approaches to conducting combat operations coalition forces, as shown by the recent armed conflict in Libya, inevitably required a new perspective on the concept and approach to the process of targeting as the process of selecting and prioritizing targets and responding to them in accordance with operational requirements and capabilities of units, synchronization of NATO forces, particularly with regard to collateral damage with an impact on the protection of civilians. And Unified Protector operation is a clear example.

The process of the Lessons Learned in the Czech Armed Forces is not ideal for several reasons. One of them is the underestimation of the process by top management. Another one is the low level of awareness of the process, institutions, possibilities and importance of the Lessons Learned Process as a whole. The aim of this article is to clarify the Lessons Learned Process as a tool to support the organization. The first part of the article deals with the process of the Lessons Learned in the Czech Armed Forces including terminology. The second part of the article describes the factual implementation of the Lessons Learned in the Czech Armed Forces. It points out achievements as well as drawbacks during its implementation. In addition to that, it introduces the current Czech military publications dealing with this topic. The conclusion presents the description of some suggestions and recommendations for further development of this process.

This text is focused on current situation in Syria and Iraq and so called Islamic State, the one of the biggest threats of contemporary world. The rise of this quasi­state at background of civil war in Syria and still not fully solved conflict in Iraq is the result of involvement of many internal and external actors. The form of their involvement and especially their goals are very different from each other and despite sporadic and declaratory agreements in partial points the main reason the Islamic State still exists in very good shape is disunited attitude of local and external powers against it. The main aim of this text is to explain and to analyze main motives and goals of all relevant actors and sides of mentioned conflict and describe the way they affect its dynamics. Due to that it is possible to increase the knowledge of readers in such a chaotic, unclear and often misinterpreted situation in the Middle-East.

The article deals with the use of military police in combat operations during dominance phase.Itdescribes the place androleofmilitarypoliceas combat support units, analyzes experience from previous and ongoing operations and specifies the possible activities of military police during this phase. In conclusion it gives recommendations for the development of capabilities in terms of the activities performed and possible changes in organizational structures. The content of the article is based on thesis prepared by the participant of the 27th General Staff Course at the University of Defence.

The article is related to the building process of Capabilities Development Concept of Military Police (MP) in Ministry of Defence environment. With regards to the specific status of MP within Ministry of defence and with regards to diversity of assigned tasks Capabilities Development Concept of MP is finally hybrid document, containing elements of concept, strategy and long-term development intent. This is positive fact based on unique status of this branch of arms. The author who is actively influencing the proces of concept building is describing his recommendations and observations which might be convenient also for those readers who are not Military Police workers.