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The article presents six more or less structured analytical methods that are or could be employed in intelligence analysis. This type of analysis, one part of the intelligence cycle, is understood as "the process of evaluating data for reliability, validity, and relevance; integrating and analysing it; converting the product of this effort into a meaningful whole, which includes assessment of events and implications of the information collected". The set of presented methods includes: link analysis, opportunity analysis, analogy, linchpin analysis, analysis of competing hypothesis and alternative scenarios. The study doesn't stop with presenting those methods; it also explains which type of reasoning (inductive, deductive or abductive) is used when working with each particular method. In broad terms, the article tries to shed light on intelligence analysis and its specifics. The reader should obtain better understanding their usefulness in the daily work of intelligence analyst.

The Provincial Reconstruction Team of Czech Republic operates in very complicated conditions and environment that are in fact hostile. It can't be excluded that growing scepticism, today common among Afghanistan security experts, more or less could affects even Czech members of ISAF missions. This study deals with existing knowledge end experiences of Czech PRT in Afghanistan. It is divided into two parts. The fi rst one concerns with outside and inside factors infl uencing ISAF missions. It brings in details characteristics of geographical, historic ambiances in which ISAF mission are performed. The second part concentrates on tangible experiences of Czech PRT members, both in political and military spheres. Here the authors summarize conclusions and upon them they outline challenges for the future.

Animals have been used for military purposes from the ancient world to nowadays. Horses, elephants, mules and camels were carrying supplies and took part in battles. Dogs were trained for securing livestock and military camps. Soviet army used them as live mines during World War II. The U.S. Army explored the possibility of using bats as live incendive devices. Even the terrorists could use animals for destroying chosen targets in the same way armies used to do. The deployment of animals would be advantageous for any terrorist group because security forces would not expect this kind of attack. Up to now, there have been just a few cases of abusing animals by terrorists, e.g. for bomb laden mules or dogs carcasses which hide explosive devices. But animals could also help with the fight against terrorism, for example dogs or bluegill fish.

This is another publication by Mr. Jan Eichler. It consits of three parts: the fi rst one defines nearly three dozens of basic terms in the field of security, the second one deals with wars in the 90?s, and finally third part concentrates on terrorism. The book has evidently pedagogical bias, with explanatory character. Under the influence of foremost sociologist Ulrich Beck, Jan Eichler interprets risks as ?social phenomena? derived from threats. The author also evaluates wars in Africa, Asia and Latin America, in Serbia or the Persian Gulf, which took place in 1990-2001. There were 120 armed confl icts, with 94 % victims from among civil population (compared with 50 % of WWII and 15 % WWI). In those wars bellingerent parties deployed weapons of all sorts, with the exception of WMD. As far as international terrorism is concerned, the author sees as its primary characterists the absence of warning before terrorist attacks are accomplished.

The Command and Control process may be defined as an ability to determine what to do and implement effective actions. With the use of the Standard Operating Procedures, the commander must be able to realize set tasks in defined time. The C2 system must be able to monitor and collect data on the situation, to develop an understanding of the situation, to develop a course(s) of action and select one, to develop a plan to execute the selected course of action, to execute the plan, to include providing direction and leadership to subordinates, to monitor execution of the plan and adapt as necessary. The commander draws the picture of situation on the base of surveillance and data collection from various sources, classified and unclassified. The context of information is formed by means of paradigm of personal experiences of commander and his intuition.

After a short review of defence R&D history, the author concludes that our country used to reach world's level in some fields: passive warning systems, NBC protection, military surgery, explosives. After the change of political system in 1989 we began to dispose Czech military industries. The only scientific place to left is Defence University Brno, but it is an institution more or less concentrated on education. It is almost impossible to maintain pace with foreign defence industry. In the article there is an exhaustive list of military plants, institutions after 1989, together with the date of their closing down. It is followed by research orientation of defence industry, set according to time periods. The special chapter concentrates on financing defence research, the closing part deals with the period of our membership in NATO. Although there are same positive aspects, such as international cooperation, exploiting sources from abroad, strategical control declined. We see unwise reductions in personnel, abolishing accredited institutions, etc.

This article aims at building a bridge upon a gap, which separates academic sphere and intelligence community in the issue of predictive methodology. The author tries to accomplish this objective by presenting intelligence predictive methods based on open-source literature research. First, the question of uncertainty and probability in prediction is introduced (Cynefin template). Then follows basic introduction to predictive methods in civil and military intelligences, so that the reader might grasp the fundamentals of early warning systems. The academics and above all journalists should know the risks and perils in forming intelligence forecasts, estimates, foresight and warning scenarios, e.g. the so-called Black Swan scenario, the author explains potentials failures of the Delphi method. This study ought to be regarded as an introductory to predictive intelligence concurrently done by governmental agencies for purposes of national security and defence.

The term "hybrid war" is frequently used today within the military community, but the term does not bring something new in the view of the terminology of the stability operations, comprehensive approach or compound wars. This concept is based on the destructive threats to the military components of international community. It does not help in delimiting reasons of violent confl ict and from that point it is harmful, as it does not explain soldiers why they are fi ghting the "just war", why they should sacrifi ce their lives in confl icts far away from their homeland. We should not use terms of hybrid wars, hybrid confl icts, hybrid enemies or forces. Only "hybrid warfare" could find some legitimacy, but only when used with the correct definition of the conflict typology, backed by the political objectives of the war. Confl icts typology, as used, forms the framework for the mission analysis orientation at all command & control levels and it guides the informational support to the military decision making processes.

The article depicts the methods of logistical support to combat units of the German Federal Forces (Bundeswehr), deployed in Afghanistan. Professionally trained and prepared personnel are capable to meet requirements of forces in ISAF operations. The centralizations of composite logistical services can guarantee the lowering of payments and expenses in logistics. Such arrangement makes logistic activities more economical, namely by taking over of mechanisms used in civilian economy sphere. This method is called "focused logistics". It is used for logistical support of small contingents. Its characteristic feature is interconnection of logistical data and transport technologies, rapid crisis response, and the ability of logistical support during all combat and non-combat activities.

The Engineers are specialist soldiers trained in the construction and demolition of bridges, field fortifications, obstacles, roads, etc. Their major task is to support Czech missions abroad, as a part of multinational peacekeeping forces. This article is a preliminary study into the current state of applying the Czech Engineer units in operations other than war as a part of Joint Forces Peace Support Operations. There are mentioned some aspects, for example basic engineer support tasks, possible demanded future capabilities of the Czech Engineer Troops, engineer support to movement and force protection engineering. The purpose of this article is to initiate a debate about the topic and to start the brainstorming process in a broad military environment.

This article presents trends in actual physical status of Czech population with emphasis to the military population. The battery of standard tests was used to monitor the basic health related parameters. This test battery was applied to large sample demographic groups. The results verify expected trends. Anthropometrical data show that the population reaches critical level of overweight at age of 40. Blood pressure tends to increase more rapidly after age of 45. Strength and cardiovascular fitness peaks at age of 25, followed by steady decline. Although it was predicted that military personnel should reach higher physical fitness level and lower risk factors, there were no significant difference between military and civilian population. Effect of three-month basic training on actual health status is quite positive, it improves body composition, but no special effect on overall strength. Higher levels of physical readiness were found only in small special units.

The complex security strategy must pay attention not only to outer threats, but also to inner security risks. Social and cultural impacts of globalisation produced even to our country a rise of several extremist right-wing political groups inspired by or following the tenets of Hitler's Nazi Party, referred to as neo-Nazis, because they modify Nazi doctrine and because the original Nazi movement inspires them. Some forms of fascism are also anti-Semitic or xenophobic. On the contrary, Anarchism is a political theory opposed to all forms of government. Anarchists believe that the highest attainment of humanity is the freedom of individuals, unhindered by any form of repression or control. To accept matching strategy, we must know those theories, their international background, as those movements are usually tied with organized crime and terrorism.

Relations between NATO and the Russian Federation are one of key factors influencing overall policy of the whole North Atlantic Alliance. They are complicated and sophisticated questions still predisposed by the heritage of the Cold War.But there are mutual fears, common security problems they both have to counter. NATO policy must be established upon present-day reality. It is self-evident that there are common fields of common interests in which mutual balance must be reached. There are among others: armament, preventing arms proliferation, halting proliferation of nuclear, biological and chemical agents, antimissiles defence, counter-terrorism, drugs smuggling, open sea security, common peace operations. After two years the Russian-Georgia war started, military cooperation between Russia and NATO was re-established. Separate problem in midterm prospects presents the solving of conflict in Afghanistan.

The author summarises most common and repeated mistakes of graduated officers after leaving military schools. Junior officers are practically in the same position as young manager in civil life, so we can find some analogies in civil managerial leadership. Civil manager face practically the same problems and situations. There are various mistakes that junior officers ought to be warned. Such educational instructions and leadership should be implemented into military schools' curricula. Backed by a vast amount of studied literature, the author offers his own solution. He makes use of five myths by Linda Hill, professor at Harvard Business School. The problem is to avoid extreme leadership styles: dictatorlike and benevolent ones.

At the beginning of August, Defence Minister Alexander Vondra announced his intention to give rise to the White Report of Defence as a document constituting clear vision of country's defence. The Paper will constitute a major overhaul of Czech defence and security policy and will set out the path to more modern, compact and reactive security and defence forces. By cutting the overall number of defence personnel, restructuring the defence estate will achieve cost reductions allowing to address more effectively the challenges and threats of the globalized world. It will allocate a substantial budget for defence, in line with the priorities and choices made for her defence capabilities. It will further reflect themes not mentioned before, such as relations between Common European Defence Policy and NATO alliance, new dimensions of civic security in cases of natural disasters, pandemic, or last but not least - terrorist attacks. The Czech White Report is going to make good use of similar documents of Allied nations.

The professionalization of armed forces is a process causing qualitative changes in the personnel structure of the armed forces. This process should form the armed forces as a professional institution, where the most of soldier is not enlisted for a life-long career of soldiering, but enrolled only for certain amount of time (Soldat auf Zeit). The U.S. Armed Forces (all-volunteer service) and the Royal Armed Forces serve as an example of a kind of professional armed forces in the NATO. There are two contrasting models of professional armed forces: the US-inspired armed forces and the lifelong-careerof-soldiering armed forces. Both models served as an inspiration for application in the Czech Armed Forces. The Czech Act No 211/1999 "Career Soldiers" defines military service of Czech professional soldiers in terms of all-volunteer forces. As there were some problems with the unification of career officers and volunteer soldiers, nowadays we gradually return to the concept that again differentiates between those groups.

In fact, we have no universal method for evaluating impacts and protection of nature during military exercises and training. Establishing Environmental Training Group (NATOTraining Group/Army-Sub-Group) revolutionized the ways in which hazards were defined and analyzed to help communities protect themselves against these perils. Newly developed Training Impact Matrix/ Hazard & Impact Index methods enable truly to assess environmental dangers of military materials, vehicles, activities, energy consumption, and their impacts on important localities. Many features of above mentioned methods were introduced by Czech representatives in 2000 at Aachen (Germany). The index of environmental acceptability was further elaborated by Czech experts, among others by the authors of this article. It enables set levels of environmental dangers, their impacts, independently from organic structure of national forces, or individual countries. The article is accompanied by tables, mathematical formulas and patterns of calculation risk categories.

The author, the former chief military chaplain, nowadays an advisor to the Czech defence minister, summarizes all relevant views on global responses to terrorism. The deadly attacks against Word Trade Center were more than acts of terror, they were acts of war. International law makes it possible to hunt the perpetrators, organizers and instigators of terrorism wherever they are. Immediately after the 11 September attacks on the United States, the Security Council expressed its determination to combat, by all means, threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist acts. The Council reaffirmed the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence in accordance with the Charter of United Nations. The States concerned have set their current military action in Afghanistan in that context. Col. Holub quotes individual views on war expressed by leaders of the U.S., NATO, United Nations, international law specialists, high Catholic clergy, ideas of Bishop Conference, and those of religious groupings. He doesn't come to any conclusion; he only wants to initiate a wide-ranging ethic discussion, as the traditional concept of the "just war" doesn't fit to this new situation. In his opinion, the core of problem lies in justifiability or unjustifiability of preventive war.

This essay describes management system as a factor that can increase effectiveness in defence sector. The author depicts relationship among new public management reforms, public expenditure reforms and defence sector management reform. The reform of defence sector in the Czech Republic is characterized as introducing new management tools. Author explains their inner substance and importance; draws our attention to the difficulty of its first implementation. He underlines some of the factors which shape their successful implementation into Czech armed forces.

UAV specialists predict that within ten years, half the aircraft flying will be unmanned. They also foresee conflicts where a few soldiers will dominate stateside battlefields. The UAV Center of Excellence is going to draw the unmanned part of the Air Force, to study the best ways to use UAVs. The Air Warfare Centre at Nellis, Nevada, develops tactics for the use of aircraft and directs combat training. The UAV center would take on a whole range of issues from airspace control to various kinds of systems. Unmanned aircraft are to expect to play a key role in delivering directed-energy weapons to battlefields. Stealth will become a standard in UAV fleets just as it is in manned combat aircraft today. A number of additional improvements are expected to increase the capability of Predator squadrons. UAVs may have to specialize in strike or intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance. Source: articles by David A. Fulghum, Aviation Week and Space Technology No 12, 2005.

The end of the Cold War was the most important factor determinating political and security realities in the world. Consequent development has gradually led to the significant reengagement of the former Warsaw Pact member states and other military alliances, especially into all form of peace operations. The Czech Republic is following the path common for the other countries in Euroatlantic region, being motivated by common struggle for enlargement this area of stability, security, democracy and peaceful resolution of crises. Hand in hand, with growing experiences from peace operations, the Czech Republic reflects specificities of national security and military strategies, as well as the level of declared military ambitions. Principal changes the Czech forces undergoing now are aiming at fulfilment basic principles of the Security Strategy of the Czech Republic. Participation of the Czech Republic in peace operations and operations outside the republic is becoming the most predominant form of deployment of our armed forces. Therefore, peace operations studies are more pressing today than ever before in the past.

The term "security", originally used for the defence of state/national territory, was surpassed by "global security", ranging from world's security situation to monitoring foreign conflicts with the deployment of pre-emptive actions in places with tides of violence, instability. This article describes mentioned complexity of current and future military operational environment dilemma: generally, armed forces are affected by multifaceted circumstances that have to be taken into account and mustn't be ignored or neglected during the preparation and performance of their mission. At present, threat spectrum is characterized by three key characteristics: dynamics, complexity, and lower importance of geographical area. The socalled Long Term Vision EU describes the future military environment which is divided into three components: humane (social), cybernetic (informational, computer, communication), physical (natural, geographic) and is bridging the gap between strategy and capabilities of forces.

This article presents the findings of the survey being done during the evaluation and assessment of EU Battle Groups, their missions, roles, tasks, stemming from the requirements set by the EU Crisis Management Concept. The paper does not discuss in detail variants EU Battle Groups, but concentrates on their historical background, basic characteristics, structure, EU political-military ambitions, scenarios, reaction time, tasks, standards, training and certification, Battle Groups commitments, concept and implementation, achievements. The article also includes recommendations for the Czech Armed Forces that are currently involved in the formation of the EU Battle Group CZE/SVK. This article aims to record progress to date and to indicate challenges ahead. All information and data for this paper were drawn from unclassified sources.

The forward-thinking and respond to the challenges of today's dynamic operational environment demands as necessary: first, to attract and develop young people to become adaptative leaders possessing enhanced skills, i.e. we must align leader-development programmes for the new operating environment; second, to respond to the forces' needs in meeting the challenges of the operational environment-the forces have to undergo a transformation. Adaptability is critical to urban stability and support operations, as these operations present complex challenges to commanders for which no prescribed solutions exist. Warfare and technology are rapidly evolving; doctrine lags behind the need for ready solutions. Officers are confronted by many situations outside the doctrinal framework. No amount of technology can offset the effects of chaos theory ...169 Clearly, there is a need to quickly learn knowledge/skill sets, coupled with a new operating frame that might be radically different from the skills and knowledge developed through classical training (Military Review, January/February 2006, Tomáš Weiser, What is the Chaos? Dějiny a současnost, 5/2002).

New technologies influence not only social advance, but also the development of armed forces. Present-time warfare is resolute, dynamic. In the 21st century, both low and high intensity conflicts, counterterrorist or stabilization operations might take place in urbanized areas, where casualties and material damages are high. New weaponry and technology make demands on military and professional training, self-control, psychic preparedness. In advance we must set rules governing the firing of weapons and use of force namely by soldiers involved in peacekeeping and counter-insurgency situations. Mental stress, emotional, or physical strain or tension of soldiers are manifested by fanaticism, looting, killing non-combatants, desertions or going away from military units without permission (AWOLs), depressed soldiers inflict wound on themselves, they misuse drugs or alcohol. The author cites factors increasing soldiers' resistance: high cohesion of units, tough training, relaxation, courageousness, high awareness of objectives of operations and war aims.

The Polish armed forces (Wojsko Polskie) are continuously redeveloped. This article written by Brig. Szymonik, the head of Science and School Department at the Ministry of National Defence, deals with general aspects of this process. The problem concerns not only of the Polish military by itself, it covers even all Polish defence industries. After entering the Polish Republic into common world's market, Polish defence industries must adapt themselves into this competitive environment. It is being done with the use of several international agencies, WEAG (Western European Armaments Group), IPC (NATO Industrial Planning Committee), and EAA (European Armaments Agency). He is a supporter of higher military expenditures, as the necessary prerequisite for introducing modern technologies into both defence plants and Polish armed forces.

The Czech Republic became involved in ISAF in 2002, among others we sent there both field hospital and field surgical team; later meteorological group, traffic control group with EOD team began to serve at the Kabul International Airport. In 2004, the 601st Special Force Group was engaged in Enduring Freedom operation, Czech soldiers served in German Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT), positive role was played by Czech Operational Mentoring and Liaison Team. Another successful mission was establishing PRT Logar, supporting social, economical development in this province. New common features of PRT, helicopter OMLT, EUPOL mission, partly SOG is the concentration on building Afghan capacities, namely ANSF (Afghan National Security Force) and public administration. Together with their deliberate support, it has multiplying effect, as assistance and training bring more effects than mere fulfilling standard military tasks, guarding e.g. Dutch base.

This article begins with a theoretical discussion of the culminating point, for both the attack and defence. Key definitions and related concepts provided in Carl von Clausewitz's On War, Joint Publication 3-0, Doctrine for Joint Operations, and U.S. Army Field Manual 100-5, Operations, are discussed in detail. These sources provide many of the factors that can cause a force to reach culmination, and serve as a basis for understanding the difficulties involved in trying to determine the time and place of culmination. Other current factors attributing to culmination are discussed, and recommendations are offered to help operational commanders and planners to zero in on this elusive point. It is of the utmost importance that one's own, and the enemy's culminating point be identified with the highest possible degree of accuracy during the planning phase of a major operation or campaign.

This essay presents the development of opinions on the role of language training of students and learners of foreign language (officer candidates) within the development of speech and understanding capabilities in recent years. It analyses the ratio of general and special languages at military system of language preparation. Increased attention is paid to the acquisition of the so-called special competencies. The article also mentions the activities of educators in the field of terminology. The most stimulating and demanding is a stress upon professional communication at magisterial stages of university education. In conclusion, further trends in given areas are emphasized. The article was written to mark 10th anniversary of the first terminology conference in defence sector and joining the Czech Republic into standardization process that took place at Defence University Brno.

This essay is based up ideas summarized in Huntington's famous book The Clash of Civilizations. According to Mr. Huntington, there are seven or eight world civilizations. The West is "unique"-but its values are not universal. World politics is entering a new phase, in which the great divisions among humankind and the dominating source of international conflict will be cultural. The decline of the nation state from the conflicting pulls of tribalism and globalism, among others. The author of this essay introduces individual world's cultures and traces prognostic visions both from historical and topical point of view. He warns against intervening into civil wars, as we know very little about their cultural background which must be respected; our interventions might be disserviceable.