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This article aims at building a bridge upon a gap, which separates academic sphere and intelligence community in the issue of predictive methodology. The author tries to accomplish this objective by presenting intelligence predictive methods based on open-source literature research. First, the question of uncertainty and probability in prediction is introduced (Cynefin template). Then follows basic introduction to predictive methods in civil and military intelligences, so that the reader might grasp the fundamentals of early warning systems. The academics and above all journalists should know the risks and perils in forming intelligence forecasts, estimates, foresight and warning scenarios, e.g. the so-called Black Swan scenario, the author explains potentials failures of the Delphi method. This study ought to be regarded as an introductory to predictive intelligence concurrently done by governmental agencies for purposes of national security and defence.

Today we use the Space for military and commercial satellites of passive, non-offensive character. The prospective so-called militarization of Space has qualitatively higher level. It means that offensive means will be located in the Space, probably as part of ballistic missile defence. Antisatellite systems began to be tested in 1959 (US), in 1968 (USSR), or in 2005 (China) respectively. The US administration places emphasis on limited character of created antimissiles defence. In fact, the presentday laws do not ban situating cosmic weapons in the Space. But whereas the United States regards existing agreements concerning the Space as sufficient, explicitly the Russian Federation and China point out that e.g. the Cosmic Treaty of 1967 is inadequate and insufficient and therefore among others they block the signing of Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty, important for the USA. The author presents and summarizes main treatises concerning the Space: Outer Space Treaty (1967), Convention on the Registration (1975), Moon Agreement (1979) and others, all of them hardly known to ordinary citizens.

The new American doctrinal document called National Security Strategy (NSS 2010) was released in May 2010. Generally, NSS documents outline major national security concerns and plans. The NSS 2010 lays out a strategic approach for advancing American interests, including the security of the American people, growing U.S. economy, and international order that can address 21st century challenges. President Obama is stressing global leadership, dependent on strong and responsible American leadership directing it to ensure other nations follow. He urged Americans to revitalize their own economic, moral and innovative strength to continue to lead the world. The essay by Mr. Eichler is divided into two parts: first one deals with Bush's security policy, and second one deals with documents issued during Obama's presidency. There is a departure from Bush's security strategy that had led to two asymmetric wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. There are interesting nuances. The NSS 2010 for example declares the intention to build deeper and more effective partnerships with key centres of influence-including China, India, which represents among others Obama's retreat from policy of unilateralism.

The article presents six more or less structured analytical methods that are or could be employed in intelligence analysis. This type of analysis, one part of the intelligence cycle, is understood as "the process of evaluating data for reliability, validity, and relevance; integrating and analysing it; converting the product of this effort into a meaningful whole, which includes assessment of events and implications of the information collected". The set of presented methods includes: link analysis, opportunity analysis, analogy, linchpin analysis, analysis of competing hypothesis and alternative scenarios. The study doesn't stop with presenting those methods; it also explains which type of reasoning (inductive, deductive or abductive) is used when working with each particular method. In broad terms, the article tries to shed light on intelligence analysis and its specifics. The reader should obtain better understanding their usefulness in the daily work of intelligence analyst.

Problems of crossing abilities are most often defined as the ability of wheeled and tracked vehicles to move on damaged, unrepaired communications or terrain. This ability is determined by the construction of vehicle, terrain qualities, and their classes. Less known are problems of reverse driving. In this case, we do not examine crossing ability, but investigate the capacity of terrain to decompose an overall load of moving vehicle. It is a part of tasks performed by engineer reconnaissance for force movements, as troops make use not only neat communications, but also rough terrains, off main routes. Diagnoses of this kind are performed by the Department of Engineer Technologies, Defence University Brno. Many examples are presented in the American Field Manual "Planning and Design of Roads, Airfields, and Heliports in the Theater of Operations-Road Design".

The article deals with persistent problems of Czech military policy within 1993-2009, its achievements and failures. A new managerial concept, system planning, programming and budgeting, which superseded a communist central control, was not implemented fully because of governance instability. The office of Defence Minister was held by 11 persons within 1993-2009 (Czech Republic). Among others, it aroused the return of a concept of central planning in 2004, which was not successful, because it was not supported by institutions outside the MoD. The authors propose more transparency in military matters and better cooperation with academic community to prevent the repetition of concepts supporting short-term goals instead of long-term visions.

The theme of this study is a prognostic reply to the anticipated rise of mentioned two Asian powers from the point of international relations. Their growing power will precipitate consecutive results-the end of American leading role and coming multiple world. Will it produce world's stability or security threats? The author presents several scenarios. All take note of 9/11 attacks and a possible crash of two form of capitalism, democratic in the West and authoritarian in China and Russia. India has a special position. The economic success of those systems is a great chance for humane rights and civil liberties. World's dominance will be divided among the U.S., China, partly the EU, with strong position of regional powers, India, Japan, Indonesia, Iran, South African Union, Egypt, Brazil, Mexico and others. Russia will lose his superpower position, its internal economic and ethnical problems make it weak, and therefore Russia will attempt to form military coalition with China, which will lead to new world's bipolarity.

This paper deals with aspects of intelligence analysis that very often influence the quality of intelligence information utilized by end users. Such analysis requires not only analytical thinking, but also specific experiences of all personnel exploiting collected information. The same body of information may result in multiple analytic products, with different security classifications, time scales, and level of detail. The result of this process is an analytical product - evaluation without any idle speculation and pseudo prophecy. Evaluation and interpretation must describe up-to-date conditions and demonstrate the clusters of future images with alternative developments. Reasonable evaluation reduces uncertainty and makes user's decision easier. At the end the author concentrates on rules of analytical team control and management.

The definitions of the geospatial support used in different NATO missions and at command levels are very similar. However, the real content varies and it is affected by particular command level and the territory supported. The article describes the structure and manning of the Geographic Section at the HQ KFOR Pristina, Kosovo, and the Geographic Cells of all KFOR Multinational Task Forces. The author discusses the changes on both the customer and request sides and their changes caused by a recent transition of KFOR to the "Deterrent Presence" operations. Our soldiers work in leading positions and specialist occupations. Since 2003 the Geographical Service (GeoSl) has been regularly occupying geographical posts at KFOR Command Pristina. Those positions are prestigious, recognized by all NATO geographical community.

The idea of this enquiry into Czech Army logistics was to prove that even under hard conditions originated in permanently changing army concepts, the army logistics still keeps its high standard and responsibility. During transformation, an appropriate organization structure has been created, with working mechanism of logistics support, using motivated and rationale source exploitation. The purpose of an array of transformation in defence sector was to introduce not only new and effective army structure, compatible with NATO armies, but also to change the system of fi nancing forces. The funding ought to be more economical. The article is backed by a longterm study and observation of logistics development in defence sector.

This essay presents the development of opinions on the role of language training of students and learners of foreign language (officer candidates) within the development of speech and understanding capabilities in recent years. It analyses the ratio of general and special languages at military system of language preparation. Increased attention is paid to the acquisition of the so-called special competencies. The article also mentions the activities of educators in the field of terminology. The most stimulating and demanding is a stress upon professional communication at magisterial stages of university education. In conclusion, further trends in given areas are emphasized. The article was written to mark 10th anniversary of the first terminology conference in defence sector and joining the Czech Republic into standardization process that took place at Defence University Brno.

The main Alliance mission is to "safeguard the freedom and security of its member countries" and to "deter and defend against any threat of aggression against any of them". Those general tasks are tailored today to changed international security surroundings. In May this year, a report by the experts group was released, forming the basis for further negotiations over the new strategical concept of NATO. The experts produced a document of first-rate quality identifying main tasks NATO is facing today. At the same time this document redefines prospective directions the Alliance should follow in the years to come. Without a broad popular support NATO's engagements namely off European territory couldn't be vindicated and justified. The same is true as far allocation of sources for NATO missions and developing military capabilities are concerned. So, the communication with public thus becomes a further dimension of this highest strategic document.

In fact, financial resources together with human and material resources belong to the category of "defence resources". They hold a special position in defence system as financial resources are the multiplier of other sources, forming background for the effort of military commanders and leaders. This situation is caused by one simple fact: without the existence of financial resources there is no way how to pay for both human and material assets. This study describes present conditions and prospects of economical development in the word, as well as in the Czech Republic, during the period from 2000 to 2009. The article further analyses development of armed forces financial requirements, funding trends, and identifies factors that are going to determinate future military expenditures.

The Shadow of Nucler War over Europe (19451968). In spite of general expectations, even after the end of the Cold War the world can't get rid of atomic threat. Interest in nuclear problems has increased in the last few years. Among new books dealing with this problem belongs also the monograph by Josef Fučík "The Shadow of Nucler War over Europe: The Strategy of Military Blocks, Operational Plans and the Role of the Czechoslovak People's Army in Central European Theatre in 1945-1968". In the 60's, the last century, the danger of nuclear confrontation was extremely high. The Soviet Union accumulated large atomic potential, the fact that disabled American strategy of flexible response. On the other side, this fact led the Americans to strengthen conventional forces, not welcomed by American Western Allies. Nowadays we can see similar situation, in case of unwillingness of West European nations to support American activities, e.g. in Afghanistan.

The key term in this article is "war economy" It is used to describe the contingencies undertaken by the state to mobilise its economy for war production. Often confused term "resource conflicts" needs explaining. First, there are raw materials, mineral resources (diamonds, precious metals). Another group of resources are critical items, water supplies, and fertile lands. This article concentrates on conflicts provoked by the abundance of natural sources, not by their insufficiency. Their driving motive is "greed-based" model (the effort to take over the control over lands, crude oils). Another model is "grievance-based" model, based upon the feeling of hate, having its roots in e.g. underprivileged position of certain part of population) tied with worsening economy). "War economy" got a new meaning. It moved far away from Clauzewitz's paradigm, the sense of such war is in itself, the war is protracted, it is war for war's sake.

The shift from vocational military service to all-volunteer force (AVF) could be regarded and treated as any other scholarly assignment of project management, so we can get a better look at its bugs and risks. The author applied the Valentas classification of innovation upon this AVF project in the Czech Republic and demonstrates what are main risks for its sustainability. He sees the first cause and effect in the reality that this shift lacks sufficient support by social sciences and humanities. Since 2003, only six per cent of scientists/scholars employed by the Czech Ministry of Defence have been supporting this great change. It is not enough and it makes certain incompetence within defence ministry to reach the factual aim of this move and AVF produces more and more difficulties. According to the author, the professionalization of forces in our country has not meet its main purpose--to raise professional qualities of military personnel, in spite of the fact it originally used to be the prime objective of this process.

At that time, the base for plural societies in Eastern Europe was founded. Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary joined NATO defence alliance. Serious global threats of economic, military, ecology, social, ethnic, religious, criminal characters were lasting. The important question of proliferation of mass destruction weapons was raised. The analyses of security situations in Europe and the World respectively proved that armed conflicts were mostly internal, in a form of civic wars, but demographically endangering bordering countries. Those threats were only discussed, namely nobody fully realized the threat of terrorism. Defence budgets were reduced, all people wanted to profit from the so-called peace dividends. Czech army was loyal to the state; it was not misused in inner political conflicts, which was regarded as something normal by the majority of Czech public. But there were many problems left, especially the role and engagement of the ACR in the following century.

The author summarises most common and repeated mistakes of graduated officers after leaving military schools. Junior officers are practically in the same position as young manager in civil life, so we can find some analogies in civil managerial leadership. Civil manager face practically the same problems and situations. There are various mistakes that junior officers ought to be warned. Such educational instructions and leadership should be implemented into military schools' curricula. Backed by a vast amount of studied literature, the author offers his own solution. He makes use of five myths by Linda Hill, professor at Harvard Business School. The problem is to avoid extreme leadership styles: dictatorlike and benevolent ones.

After a short review of defence R&D history, the author concludes that our country used to reach world's level in some fields: passive warning systems, NBC protection, military surgery, explosives. After the change of political system in 1989 we began to dispose Czech military industries. The only scientific place to left is Defence University Brno, but it is an institution more or less concentrated on education. It is almost impossible to maintain pace with foreign defence industry. In the article there is an exhaustive list of military plants, institutions after 1989, together with the date of their closing down. It is followed by research orientation of defence industry, set according to time periods. The special chapter concentrates on financing defence research, the closing part deals with the period of our membership in NATO. Although there are same positive aspects, such as international cooperation, exploiting sources from abroad, strategical control declined. We see unwise reductions in personnel, abolishing accredited institutions, etc.

At the beginning of August, Defence Minister Alexander Vondra announced his intention to give rise to the White Report of Defence as a document constituting clear vision of country's defence. The Paper will constitute a major overhaul of Czech defence and security policy and will set out the path to more modern, compact and reactive security and defence forces. By cutting the overall number of defence personnel, restructuring the defence estate will achieve cost reductions allowing to address more effectively the challenges and threats of the globalized world. It will allocate a substantial budget for defence, in line with the priorities and choices made for her defence capabilities. It will further reflect themes not mentioned before, such as relations between Common European Defence Policy and NATO alliance, new dimensions of civic security in cases of natural disasters, pandemic, or last but not least - terrorist attacks. The Czech White Report is going to make good use of similar documents of Allied nations.

Computer-Aided Logistic Support (CALS) appeared for the first time in 1984 in a common study of US government and American defence industry. The study recommended using technical data in digital form. Further it was changed into Computer-Aided Acquisition and Logistic Support and in 1994 the acronym CALS was changed into Continuous Acquisition and Life-Cycle Support. At present we interpret CALS as the support to all automatized processes with fully digitalized data processing. Among its important tools belong LCC (Life-Cycle Costs) and risk management. It is a vast standardization strategy, covering the whole life cycle, via acquisition process, its support, innovation and product disposal. CALS is supposed to make acquisition procedures in the ACR more effective.

This article addresses vital issues of possible threat of nuclear weapons in contemporary world. First, the general nuclear order-particularly the NPT regime-is briefly examined. Analysis proceeds to a critical exploration of the prospective use of nuclear weapons by small nuclear states and the so-called rogue states. Some attention is also paid to the conflict between India and Pakistan, since these two states are often considered as the most dangerous from perspective of possible use of nuclear weapons. The author considers the threat of nuclear war between great powers and then the threat of nuclear terrorism. His analysis suggests that deterrence between great powers is reliably working. The threat from rogue states is limited by technological difficulties in process of development and production of nuclear weapons and limits of small nuclear arsenals. Even though threat of nuclear terrorism should not be underestimated, this paper argues that technical obstacles and availability of other comparatively cheap methods effectively reduce the terrorists' desire to acquire nuclear weapons.

The deteriorating situation in the Afghanistan region poses a security threat not just to the United States, but to every single nation. It was from that remote area of the world that Al Qai'da plotted 9/11 and subsequent attacks in Europe and elsewhere. Reading news about Afghanistan today gives rise to the question why the situation in this country is such as now really is. Ordinary mass media depict the country often in a confusing manner: Afghanistan as "a country, full of terrorists and uneducated barbarians, longing to destroy western civilization and kill". The author describes bad security situation which presents problem for both coalition soldiers and local Afghanistan population. At the same time we must realize that involved soldiers are exposed every day to asymmetric enemy forces, they stand face to face to mortar danger that could be hidden in for example in every car passing by.

Africa has became synonymous with conflict, increasingly violent and protracted. The continent is facing huge difficulties today and the EU is more and more involved in peace enforcement and expeditionary operations. Therefore the purpose of this article is to inform and pass knowledge of operational environment to those Czech soldiers designated to deploy overseas and abroad. It covers topics such as operational areas, understanding EU Battle Group operational Environment and Africa's operational environment. It is necessary for Czech soldiers to understand African operational environment very quickly and profoundly to avoid unfortunate misunderstanding of the local culture, customs, believes, religions, regional official and customary laws. It is a new challenge for the Armed Forces of the Czech Republic to be prepared for the CZE/SVK Battle Group. All information and data for this paper were drawn from unclassified sources.

At first, in 1918, the new Czech Republic took over Military Territorial Authorities from the former Austro-Hungarian empire. In 1920 the net of 48 regional Are We Able to Govern at Strategical Level? by PhDr. Antonín Rašek. This is the question asked by the book "Strategical Governance and the Czech Republic", published by the Centre of Social and Economic Strategies, Social Science Faculty, Charles University Prague, in which also the Centre for Security Policy participates. The opening sentence says that humankind is not able to control itself. The team of authors guide us through individual items dealing with world's political and economy situations, plans for economy growth, security and defence concepts, forming supranational security structures and finally towards depressing destiny of adopted strategy concepts and plans. If Czech leadership has any deficiency, then it is a lack of strategical dimension, concludes the reviewer.

The change of security situation in the world, international ties and last but not least changes in operational environment, exploitation of new technologies are reflected by changes in defence planning, military organization, forces engagement and operational assessment. Time, flexibility, cooperation in coalition operations, interoperability in technology spheres play incommutable roles together with trained personnel. Command and control (C2) is self-contained system depending on many factors provided by the so-called System of Communication and Information. At present it is the very base for information collection, decision-making process, preparing variants of operation for both commander and his staff. Among others the author writes about Network Enabled Capability system introduced into Czech armed forces. C2 programme is also a part of educational curriculum at Defence University Brno.

The complex security strategy must pay attention not only to outer threats, but also to inner security risks. Social and cultural impacts of globalisation produced even to our country a rise of several extremist right-wing political groups inspired by or following the tenets of Hitler's Nazi Party, referred to as neo-Nazis, because they modify Nazi doctrine and because the original Nazi movement inspires them. Some forms of fascism are also anti-Semitic or xenophobic. On the contrary, Anarchism is a political theory opposed to all forms of government. Anarchists believe that the highest attainment of humanity is the freedom of individuals, unhindered by any form of repression or control. To accept matching strategy, we must know those theories, their international background, as those movements are usually tied with organized crime and terrorism.

This year we marked the 10th anniversary of our full membership in NATO. We've verified that the nation can become a "full fledged member" in eight or ten years at earliest. Signing the treaty, you became "only" a freshman. You must learn everything, from "consensus building" to forming informal coalition. The author of this article, Deputy of the Czech Permanent Representative to NATO, summarizes the history of fulfilling the membership's prerequisites and following difficult process of implementation of fundamentals and requirements, e.g. the so-called NATO legal acquis (Status of Forces Agreement), Planning and Review Process, setting Force Goals, fixing Identification Friend or Foe on Mi-21 aircraft assigned for Air Policing, problems with developing home infrastructure for Host Nation Support. We joined common security planning, took part in NATO Security Investment Programme and Conference of National Armaments Directors. But today's organization is quite different that used to be, the role and missions have changed. We must be prepared to meet them too.

We have no many characters that unlike Ivan Gabal could move on the edge of practice, academic world and politics, dealing with incomparable themes: foreign policy, security, terrorism, Europe vs. the Czech Republic and vice versa. Referred chapters are entitled NATO, EU, Radar, the Army of the Czech Republic. Among others, Mr. Gabal compares Czech army with its English and American counterparts, evidently better than ours, because those armies have not undergone such troublesome history in the last hundred years as the ACR. Ivan Gabal's editorials, sociological analyses, critical and professional articles from 1997-2007, when focusing on safety and the Army of the Czech Republic, uncover a striking lack of conceptual planning and incompetence of the post-November political elites.

The study analyzes the key features of Russian policies in the late 2000s and their prospective developments. It is above all the rise of Russia's economic power, boosted by the favourable rising trend of energy prices (oil and gas) that has helped to resume again the position of one of the key world powers, obsessively pursuing its geopolitical interests in a new emerging multipolar world. This also determines its relations with other major global actors, e.g. the U.S., the EU, and China (outlined in this article). As far as military budget is concerned, it is increasing. Russia has overcome a long period of stagnancy. After 2007, they re-established strategical patrol flights off Russian territory; great effort is aimed at power projection, as a means to secure natural resources beyond Russian boarders. The study is closed by Russia's geopolitical prospects till the year 2020. and its Anticipated Development