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The purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable of the worst case scenario for the global future post-modern society. The analysis addresses the main features of global risk society, human suffering, and loss of life from natural catastrophes, man-made catastrophes, economic losses, peak-oilcrises impacts, threat of terrorism, radical Islam, fragile states, etc. Important are the consequences of the end of the Vestfal system and global climate change. There is substantial evidence to indicate that significant global warming will occur during the 21st century. The research suggests that once temperature rises above some threshold, adverse weather conditions could develop relatively abruptly. Drought persists for most of the decade in critical agricultural regions and in the water resource regions for major population centres in Europe. As fertility shrivels, societies get older-and much of Europe are set to get older than any functioning societies have ever been. To avoid collapse, European nations will need to take immigrants at a rate no stable society ever attempted. Europe will be significantly more Islamic.

The article is focused on applications of the Reach-Back concept as a procedural help to the technical supervision of the investor during peacekeeping missions abroad. The fourth part of the article describes the technical supervision of the investor based on KFOR mission lesson learned. Private local construction companies perform the majority of constructional works during KFOR missions. In fact, with the use of Reach-Back concept, there is no difference between the contents of work of technical supervision of investor in peace time in the Czech Republic and during the mission in Kosovo. The Reach-Back concept has several applications, Lotus Sametime, Lotus Quickr iProject (CAD systems). All applications are opened to wide use via field engineering address, http://ipzv. unob.cz. Supervision in ACR Mission Abroad OPINIONS, CONTROVERSY

The Centres of Gravity (COG) are characteristics, capabilities, or localities from which a military force derives its freedom of action, physical strength, or will to fight. The COG belongs among the most important operational concepts. It is the main source of power and strength. Without dermining enemy's COG we are not able to carry out any quick and resolute action, to reach ordered tasks, desired objectives. The primary purpose of this article is to offer basic information about this subject. This first part is concentrated predominantly to Carl von Clausewitz's ideas. The article especially aims on disunity and heterogeneity of comprehension of the COG theory in confrontation with contemporary doctrinal publications and original Clausewitz's theory. It highlights coherences that can affect fulfilling political and military objectives in current and future military operations.

ACR Logistics: the 2nd Phase of Reform by Prof. Ing. Petr Hajna, CSc. In its opening part, the article enumerates a short summary of tasks that were met in 2007, in the period of the first phase of ACR reform. At the same time the author marks out the tasks for its second phase in 2008. Logistics involves obtaining, maintaining, and transporting military personnel, supplies, and equipment. Now, we lay emphasis on the preparation of a new logistics concept in frame of outsourcing system (concentrated on optimalization of the employment of civilian companies for appointed goods and services); development and reconstruction of Maintaining Material Base Štěpánov (depends on allocated financial sources); purchases of T-810 vehicles; unifying control activities in the field of material economy and the founding of Office for Economy Management, subordinated to Logistics Department of Defence Ministry.

At present, we are going through army transformation, represented among others by lowering military expenditures. One of many questions accompanying this process is a purposeful and functional spending money for military purchases. The authoress, the former teacher at Defence University Brno, explains her method of multicriteria decisionmaking during shaping the algorithmic program eliminating non-optimal behaviour, suitable for all, military and state, officials, who are in contact with external providers (suppliers). Introduced method is transparent one and could be used namely for small public orders, explicitly during concluding contracts without legally fixed terms. The proposed method is demonstrated upon a concrete example of realized contract.

The purpose of this essay is to analyze the role of conceptional documents as guideposts supporting decision-making process of ministerial top-management. The key role belongs to visions. They reflect various political targets, whereas prognoses represent the prospective image of goals of department in question. The author offers several matrices of assorted components serving for the creation of predicted variants of normative and nonnormative scenarios. This leads to forming concepts, followed by plans and methods of their implementation. It is necessary to respect this outlined principle, so that titles of individual documents would match their real contents. This highly theoretical article is based upon the Research Project MSM002162084 "The Development of the Czech Republic within the EU: Challenges and Risks", Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University Prague.

The article deals with the state of English e-learning on the premises of the University of Defence. The authoress introduces some pages of the electronic materials used for the General Staff Course as an example of modern methods of learning English. She explains the basic principles of the work with these exercises. There is also mentioned the military English interactive CD-Rom that was published last year and is used as the electronic support for learning military English; and also a new CD-Rom that is being developed now is mentioned because it will be used for the General Staff Course participants as well. Because of the fact that Czech military personnel are expected to serve in multinational operations, this interactive CD-Rom will make their language training easier. In the last part of the article, the opinions of the General Staff Course participants on using e-learning materials are given on the basis of questionnaires.

In our forces, similarly like in those of Slovakia, Poland, Hungary, and Lithuania, we assess the scope of damages in numbers showing overall labour needed for repair, necessary for restoration complete combat capacity. Now we put into test another method, by means of the so-called S-M-C-A code (Shoot, Mobility, Communication, Armour); e.g. numbers 0-0-0-0 represent fully combat-ready main battle tank, whereas 0-4-0-4 shows immobile armoured vehicle, with perforated armour. To adapt commanders? decisionmaking process and introduce this method into forces, mechanised units, up the battalion level, we perform exercises on ModSAF trainer (Modular Semi-Automated Forces). This method enables us to plan the application of military repair depots, fully recover combat potential of military vehicles as soon as possible. Nowadays, ModSAF methodology is successfully exploited in the Centre for Simulation Technologies in Brno and Vyškov. The Army of the Czech Republic stands at the very same place as modern forces of Alliance, the US, Great Britain, Germany and others, in the 90?s of the last century.

Thispaperdealswiththeareaof organization values or to say it better, by organisation culture, including its importance for overall efficiency and effectivity. It is a set of values, norms, beliefs, attitudes, assumptions. The authoresses explain those terms, cite their definitions. They underline the fact that highly motivated servicemen are the real assets for our forces. We have to do our best to recruit them, to set up such quality of military life, so that they would like to serve for longer periods.

Economy of production, economies to scale, in civilian sector are quite different than economy pattern in defence sphere, as specifying the allocation of sources for the Army of the Czech Republic is not based on exact calculation of costing, payments as we could not observe the substantial terms of comparable partial and overall expenses. At present, we are not fully able to compare defence outputs, nor effecitivity of spent sources.

At present, the current reform of our armed forces is oriented towards qualitative changes. The Brigade of Logistics Support is going to be the unit designated for transportation, maintenance and repair, technological control of arms and vehicles, it must be capable of fluent supplying advances positions, namely by propellants, ammunitions, and further dozens of tasks in frame of joint task groups (National Support Element) or as a HNS (Host National Support). All units will be connected by multifunctional logistics informational system. Logistics system must fulfill its tasks even in time of peace, and thus be prepared for time of crises. The operational engagement in the early 21st century will require light expeditional forces capable of easy and rapid deployment. The logistics support ought to be more mobile, more integrated, more compatible and more precise, with the quick accession to spare parts and maintenance support.

The author follows the mainstream economics, i.e. leading economics of defence policy, ranging from economics of defence in the nuclear age, via economics of Iraq conflict, to current fight against terrorism. New paradigm must be drawn, taking into account source management, the distribution of economics weight of individual national economies of all countries participating in the fight against global terrorism.

90s introduced the new beginning of international and economical relations. The former USSR used to be overmilitarized state that is now transforming into a democratic republic. After 2000, the RF adopted many arrangements to stabilize the fall of Russian defence industry. The poor results of Russian economy motivated the federal government towards forming five defence agencies (in 1999): Russian Aeronautic and Space Agency (aeronautics and rocket industry), Russian Agency for Command and Control Systems (avionics, electronic industry), Russian Agency for Conventional Weaponry (arms and armament industry), Russian Agency for Ordnance and Munitions, Russian Agency for Shipbuilding. Nevertheless, the ageing of redundant and unnecessary military industries demands horizontal integration that might facilitate cooperation among individual enterprises. This process could help to unify military products and concentrate on modern weaponry, to improve applied technologies, corresponding to demands of 21st century forces.

What is Necessary to Consider in the Process of Organization Structures Construction, Military Forces Equipment and Training in ACR, after the Ending of "Conception" by Ing. Antonín Krásný, CSc. The very welcomed "Concept of Development of the Professional Army of the Czech Republic and the Mobilization of Armed Forces of the Czech Republic" had to be revised because of the lack financial means. This fact influenced a lot of live of our army. Additional career officers were to leave his services; military material, vehicles were further reduced. At present, we have to balance our military strength with security demands reflecting running changes in world's security surrounding. The main aim of the article is to describe development of security environment in the Central Europe. It considers decision mechanisms reform in NATO and transformations of its military forces structures. It highlights an impact of demographic, technological, institutional changes and changes in value system of defence assurance of the CR. We must still bear in mind that for us, NATO alliance, supplemented by the EU structures, is the main tool of our security.

Since the 90's of the last century we have witnessed the discussions over extended concept of security, under which no national state is the only privileged security subject. The classical military concept is extended both "above", towards international, global and regional problems covering economy, social, environmental or humane issues and "down", in the direction of local communities, NGOs, private subjects and even individual citizens. Even though several important constitutional laws reflecting EU criteria were adopted, we still miss constituting and complete overall concept Czech security system. Of course, we have a document "Optimalization of Security System of the Czech Republic", but it is not the genuine concept, but a mere summary of practical measures dealing with temporary problems, namely after the Floods 2002. The author dares the public to open debate about priorities and goals of security politics of our country, in order to lay down, under general consensus, realistic security system, able to face the whole range of security threats and risks, explicitly in the broad international frame of NATO and EU.

The China's impact on world affairs is growing and will grow further in decades to come. Those years will be critical for Taiwan, and for its relationship with other states. Three related factors determine the texture of this interaction: the policies evolving in Beijing, internal developments on Taiwan, and the international environment. Beijing has offered Taipei several proposals for reunification. The proposals, including the recent "one state, two systems" proposal, allow Taipei to maintain its social and economic system, its armed forces and its unofficial ties with foreign countries. China's grand strategy is to make war while avoiding the battle. Therefore, Taiwan is to be persuaded that the acceptance of "One China" principle is vitally important for preventing the Taiwanese independence. Otherwise, People's Armed Forces will open an invasion to Taiwan by three successive attacks: (1) high precise medium-range ballistic missiles DF-21C with the aim to suppress air defence; (2) the second stroke would be massive attack with short-range precise missiles; (3) the last stroke ought to be done by cruise missiles. This essay is adapted from articles by Mary C. Fitzgerald and Eric A. McVadon, Armed Forces Journal 11/2005.

The concept of development of professional army and mobilization of armed forces of the CR in conditions of a new framework source frame presupposes to introduce "process management" with the Ministry of Defence. Although this tendency is not new, mentioned concept is not generally known, so the author would like to make clearer its roots and reasons its introduction. The success of economic management lies in managing time, quality tied with costs of running processes, evaluating indicators of accountancy, activity-based costing and activity-based management. Our goal is not to evaluate costs, effectivity, but our objective is to constitute departmental economy system with the aspiration to guarantee continually economical rationality (overall economy, effectivity, usefulness) of its processes, activities and performances.

Security situation has been changing all over the world, so has in regional territories. It is necessary for us to create systematically new safety culture with regards to contemporary knowledge and experiences. The Czech Republic contribution to the safety of democratic states must meet their expectations; prospective security studies will have to bring new knowledge and technology which, first of all, will increase the level of general capabilities of the Czech Republic and at the same time to take into consideration the needs of national economy and Czech environment. Capital investments into security research are necessary as a basic input for the safety preparedness level of the CR. For these purposes it is desirable to establish security research that will be able to produce ideas and technologies which will sustain and renew the Czech Republic safety in changing conditions, among others taking note of a Seventh Framework Programme of EU for research,

This new generation war could be characterized by an emphasis on nonstate actors, by political and psychological forms of attacks that directly influence opponents. Other characteristics are as follows: extensive refugee flows, violence, transnational criminal aspects. Several factors will impact the nature, frequency and character of "small wars" in the 21st century. Failed/failing states, urbanization, diffusion of actors, communications technology, technological diffusion, religion, and ultra-terrorism. Clausewitz's fundamental appreciation for the primacy of political objectives as the guiding object in war remains relevant to "small wars" as does to interstate conflicts. The problem for today's strategist or policy maker is determining exactly what has changed, how the various means of stratecraft need to be adapted to the specific contingency at hand (according to The Journal of Strategic Studies, 6/2005).

The subject of this comprehensive study: the main features of global risk society can be embodied by ecology crises, global financial crises, threat of terrorism. The article is presented as a report to military community and audience, with the underlying focus on terrorism. The author is mapping the global future in the first two decades of this century. As a small country we must pay attention to the developments in the worlds leading powers: the U.S., China, Russia, last but not least, within the EU. Those themes also present individual headings of this study. He treats energy, demography, peace, security, good neighbourly relations, cooperation between states that are most desirable goals we want to reach. In a way, as the main actor of worlds security situation till 2020 is identified Islamist terrorism (radical Islamists, Al Qaeda). At the end Mr. Balabán recalls the former "Security Policy of the Czech Republic" released ten years ago, reminding us the necessity to be prepared for the worst scenarios.

The authors depict the development of outsourcing methods in US armed forces, its origins, and sources. Collected data are accompanied by experiences from British and German armies. The American Office of Management and Budget (OMB) issued in 1966 Circular No A-76 (lately several times revisited) to define procedures how to set rules which commercial activities are to be done within the frame of armed forces or in private sector. Backed by a number of literatures, magazines and newspapers (Air Force Journal of Logistics, Air Force Magazine, Armed Forces Journal, Defense Nationale, Washington Technology, Wehrtechnik, etc.) authors analyse several outsourcing processes. They present both positive and negative results, including open or hidden problems of A-76 policy (e.g. business process outsourcing). For the Army of the CR they recommend to overcome above mentioned problems by creating the corrective authority, similar to the British PPPU (PublicPrivate Partnership Unit).

This article presents the experiences with the use of Public Private Partnership (PPP) as a modern way of arrangement of public services how is used abroad, with specific bias to defence sector. The problem is solved best in Great Britain that has perfectly organised public administration and transparent feedback. Even in our country we run several PPP projects, unfortunately, overall data on them are not satisfactory.

This piece of writing is a polemic with the article by Maj. Pernica "System of Planning, Programming, Budgeting (and Flogging a Dead Horse)? in Vojenské rozhledy 4/2005. Allegedly, the criticized article quoted some misleading statements, based on financial records, inappropriate for this purpose. Ing. Dušek does not agree with its general idea, introduced out of contexts. The Planning, Programming and Budgeting System was introduced by leading economy experts (e.g. university professor Mr. Ochrana, School of Economy, Prague). Some deficiencies and shortages are inevitable, but as a whole, the PPB system works. Statistics is a dynamic science and statistical data are to be judged only in connection with statistical methods used in years in concern. For example, in answering the Defence Planning Questionnaire, we were asked by NATO authorities to transfer entries for leasing Grippen aircrafts from modernization and development items to the operational item. Consequently, the percentage of investment purchases decreased. The same goes for the percentages of National Gross Domestic Product spent for military budget, and so on. Moreover, MoD financial department put several useful proposals how to make financial flows more clear, but the were refused by the government.