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In the early 21st century defence research can be discussed in two ways: we can stay either within existing discipline "theory of state defence", or we can set up new academic specialization concentrating more on the notion "security" and its individual aspects, including their inner ties. In the former case, there are spheres in which civil and military experts can complement each other, whereas other spheres of studies ought to stay exclusively in the domain of military experts. Mutual cooperation between civilian and military experts can be concentrated on systematic studies of security threats, predictions of potential conflicts, analyses of security cooperation between the Czech Republic and NATO, the EU and the OSCE, economy support of state defence. On the contrary, military specialist ought to focus on e.g. major regional conflicts, low intensity conflicts, military operations other than war. As the term "security science" is not used in NATO nations, the author suggests, it would be more useful to preserve academic discipline "defence theory" to make full use of military experts.

This second and closing part of this security study covers decades before the half of this century. The leading role in prevention and fight against armed conflicts will rest namely upon intelligence services. It is also expected the mass use of nonlethal weapons. The US will stay as the only leading superpower, minority expects a plurality model, i.e. the US will be only first among the equals. Some predicts the collapse of the EU. The Army of the Czech Republic ought to achieve full operational potential around the year 2012. It will take part in multinational missions. The Alliance armies should have 8 per cent of their capacities fully operable abroad. Under the preventive strategy, the regions of their prospective deployment will be in bordering countries around Europe, areas around the Eastern Mediterranean, or in the Far East. More or less, one problem remains still open: whether foreign deployments of the ACR really correspond to the interests and needs of the Czech Republic.

Established methods of warfare are out of use in urbanized regions, western technological and arms potential must be amended by new equipments, materials and weapons of XXIst Century WarriorCity Guerrilla Fighter. Urbanized areas are divided into separated sectors with changed dimensions: dominating tall buildings, impenetrable barriers. Reinforced concrete, narrow streets, fight inside buildings prevent us from using global position systems. So, dismounted infantry are being equipped by inertial movement units, portable lasers, noctovisors, and bolometers (i.e. instruments used to measure tiny amounts of radiant energy). Bolometers in combination with low light level videos enable to identify friends of foes, to set risky targets. The socalled reconnaissance hand grenade to get image and sounds of enemy soldiers are being developed, it is anticipated the wide employment of unmanned aerial and ground vehicles. Many arrangements are done to prevent "collateral damages", unintentional killing of civilians as a result of military action.

UAV specialists predict that within ten years, half the aircraft flying will be unmanned. They also foresee conflicts where a few soldiers will dominate stateside battlefields. The UAV Center of Excellence is going to draw the unmanned part of the Air Force, to study the best ways to use UAVs. The Air Warfare Centre at Nellis, Nevada, develops tactics for the use of aircraft and directs combat training. The UAV center would take on a whole range of issues from airspace control to various kinds of systems. Unmanned aircraft are to expect to play a key role in delivering directed-energy weapons to battlefields. Stealth will become a standard in UAV fleets just as it is in manned combat aircraft today. A number of additional improvements are expected to increase the capability of Predator squadrons. UAVs may have to specialize in strike or intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance. Source: articles by David A. Fulghum, Aviation Week and Space Technology No 12, 2005.

This new generation war could be characterized by an emphasis on nonstate actors, by political and psychological forms of attacks that directly influence opponents. Other characteristics are as follows: extensive refugee flows, violence, transnational criminal aspects. Several factors will impact the nature, frequency and character of "small wars" in the 21st century. Failed/failing states, urbanization, diffusion of actors, communications technology, technological diffusion, religion, and ultra-terrorism. Clausewitz's fundamental appreciation for the primacy of political objectives as the guiding object in war remains relevant to "small wars" as does to interstate conflicts. The problem for today's strategist or policy maker is determining exactly what has changed, how the various means of stratecraft need to be adapted to the specific contingency at hand (according to The Journal of Strategic Studies, 6/2005).

At present, the current reform of our armed forces is oriented towards qualitative changes. The Brigade of Logistics Support is going to be the unit designated for transportation, maintenance and repair, technological control of arms and vehicles, it must be capable of fluent supplying advances positions, namely by propellants, ammunitions, and further dozens of tasks in frame of joint task groups (National Support Element) or as a HNS (Host National Support). All units will be connected by multifunctional logistics informational system. Logistics system must fulfill its tasks even in time of peace, and thus be prepared for time of crises. The operational engagement in the early 21st century will require light expeditional forces capable of easy and rapid deployment. The logistics support ought to be more mobile, more integrated, more compatible and more precise, with the quick accession to spare parts and maintenance support.

Answering the commander's intelligence and decision needs is an uneasy task for any person responsible for intelligence. PIR information help the commander to keep knowledge on relevant environment during peacekeeping, stability and supporting operations, which are different from PIR in offensive and defensive operations. In combat operations, PIR focuses on enemy's military capability and intentions. Intelligence collection in stability and support operations may adjust to the people and their cultures, politics, religions, economics and related factors. The commander must have information telling on current enemy's threats, fighters, as well as on information ranging from standard of living of local population, supplies of electric power, to building a municipal school. Shortly, to have information behind the traditional scope of PIR. But the current Czech regulation MO/VZS 2003 does not explain similar situations, the only examples we can find are those in US Army Field Manual 3-07 Stability Operations and Support Operations.

The return of Russia as a power that begins again to partake in political agenda of present-day world raises the necessity to reflect its inner developments in the background of its recent history. There are six key factors that substantionally influence the position of Russia in the world: large sources of raw materials (pipelines); outstanding military capacities (the world's second nuclear potential); high level of general education; wide scientific and research base; permanent membership in UN Security Council and in the Group of Eight (G-8); deciding influence in the near neighbourhood. The study comes to the conclusion that Russia-in the horizon of 2020-will belong among world's leading actors, together with the US, the EU, China, and Islamic world. Russia will be able to of enforce its foreign and security goals, both in post-Soviet areas and in key regions in Europe, Asia and in the Great Near East. As such, it will probably get into conflict with the US. The priority tasks of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will rest on maintaining nuclear parity with the US and building capacities for asymmetrical operations.

90s introduced the new beginning of international and economical relations. The former USSR used to be overmilitarized state that is now transforming into a democratic republic. After 2000, the RF adopted many arrangements to stabilize the fall of Russian defence industry. The poor results of Russian economy motivated the federal government towards forming five defence agencies (in 1999): Russian Aeronautic and Space Agency (aeronautics and rocket industry), Russian Agency for Command and Control Systems (avionics, electronic industry), Russian Agency for Conventional Weaponry (arms and armament industry), Russian Agency for Ordnance and Munitions, Russian Agency for Shipbuilding. Nevertheless, the ageing of redundant and unnecessary military industries demands horizontal integration that might facilitate cooperation among individual enterprises. This process could help to unify military products and concentrate on modern weaponry, to improve applied technologies, corresponding to demands of 21st century forces.