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After 1989 public opinion polls have become inseparable part of examining our society. By analysing aggregate response data over time, we can see trajectories into the future. This might help MoD officials in decision-making processes, planning long-term developments. The "Army and Public" poll is concentrated on the attitudes of Czech population to topics such as the prestige of a professional soldier, military profession, NATO membership, confidence in public administration, last but not least, the Czech missions abroad. Positive mindsets appeared namely after 1996-97, when Czech army helped during catastrophic flood. In assessing period 2006-2009 most of respondents agreed with the statement that foreign missions proved the qualities of our army, their approval with our engagement in Afghanistan and Iraq rose significantly (by 33,1 per cent), attitudes against Kosovo were unbalanced.

The article presents six more or less structured analytical methods that are or could be employed in intelligence analysis. This type of analysis, one part of the intelligence cycle, is understood as "the process of evaluating data for reliability, validity, and relevance; integrating and analysing it; converting the product of this effort into a meaningful whole, which includes assessment of events and implications of the information collected". The set of presented methods includes: link analysis, opportunity analysis, analogy, linchpin analysis, analysis of competing hypothesis and alternative scenarios. The study doesn't stop with presenting those methods; it also explains which type of reasoning (inductive, deductive or abductive) is used when working with each particular method. In broad terms, the article tries to shed light on intelligence analysis and its specifics. The reader should obtain better understanding their usefulness in the daily work of intelligence analyst.

The article is a polemical expression of authors' opinion over this problem. It is related to the orientation of society, political coalitions, and single states towards higher goals. If we admit that the sustainable development of society is the base for securing a peace and stability, then we can state that the question of security or consecutively country defence cover problems of the whole social system, subsystems and system elements. Strategical decision-making ought to be the highest priority in our society. It is indisputable that such decisionmaking deserves scientifi c support. At the end of this article the authors propose a short algorithmic program for Czech military strategy that is planned for the year 2014 and the concept of Czech army development planned for 2015.

The important part of the forces transformation deals with the problem reducing in numbers of officers, namely field officers and general corps in the Czechoslovak Armed Forces and lately the Army of the Czech Republic. The main cause of this reduction was new concept of military career, as before the transformation it used to be a lifelong profession. The downsizing started in 1990 and it ought to have been finished by the end of the first period of the Czech Armed Forces Reform, as of 2008/12/31/, but it appears that downsizing is endless. The author quotes figures concerning numbers of officers; several rank charts and tablets with corresponding NATO and Czech grades respectively are used to demonstrate veracity of his statements. According to Lt.Col. Pernica, the downsizing is going to continue but no one knows how many officers for the all-volunteer Czech armed forces will be enough.

Many security experts are of the opinion that the global security situation has been going worse af ter September 11, 2001. Even though Balkan wars ended, in fact, there are high tensions tied with Kosovo?s proclamation of independence, or in similar state of affairs in Macedonia. In Iraq, there some elements of improving, but in Afghanistan there are a lot of problems, we must mention tensions in Iran concerning building its nuclear capacities and missile tests, Russian-Georgian conflict, which is reflected in the policy of NATO enlargement: Georgia, the Ukraine were not accepted to NATO alliance. The reviewer highly appreciates this anthology of security studies, with the same title as this article. Editor Vlastimil Galatík, published by Defence University Brno, 2008.

The purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable of the worst case scenario for the global future post-modern society. The analysis addresses the main features of global risk society, human suffering, and loss of life from natural catastrophes, man-made catastrophes, economic losses, peak-oilcrises impacts, threat of terrorism, radical Islam, fragile states, etc. Important are the consequences of the end of the Vestfal system and global climate change. There is substantial evidence to indicate that significant global warming will occur during the 21st century. The research suggests that once temperature rises above some threshold, adverse weather conditions could develop relatively abruptly. Drought persists for most of the decade in critical agricultural regions and in the water resource regions for major population centres in Europe. As fertility shrivels, societies get older-and much of Europe are set to get older than any functioning societies have ever been. To avoid collapse, European nations will need to take immigrants at a rate no stable society ever attempted. Europe will be significantly more Islamic.

The article summarizes the results of sociological research into organizational culture in the ACR. It should create the picture of military organization, perhaps point at potential dysfunctions and thus to help to their correction. Respondents's opinions on remunerations were detected, in respondents places of work, in combination with their expectancy, anticipations what military service might bring to them. Two thirds professional soldiers have positive attitudes towards interpersonal relations at their working places. The worst position on the scale had the chance to work with the latest technologies and to start a professional career, i.e. to reach important positions. The culture of sustenance, sports facilities were evaluated positively. The lowest rating was allocated to arms equipment, furnishing and quality of garrison quarters. Respondents were also unsatisfied with high level of bureaucratic procedures and formalization.

The proponents of Revolution in Military Affairs claim that modern military technology will lift a "fog of war". In this article the term "fog of war" is described and illustrated in a work of Carl von Clausewitz who is supposed to introduce this term, used also in the famous novel War and Peace by Leo Tolstoy. These classics show us that uncertainty and chance, in other words fogs of war, are essential to human mentality. They will be present as long as war remains within a scope human endeavour. Emphasizing that military technology is equal to lifting the "fog of war" can lead to situation in which only trained commanders are supposed be able perfectly address problems in "chessboard" of war or computer simulators, but they will unable to manage a real world full of chaos, as they not used to count with uncertainties.

This essay depicts he alternative approach to investments in public sector. Author expresses his belief on evaluating and rating investments in public sector in the same way as in private sector. The simple theoretical analysis and foreign experiences give enough evidence about feasibility of such approach even in defence sector. Nowadays, in governments across the world, public-sector financial systems are being transformed more fundamentally than at any time in decades. The changes are taking place to respond to a number of deficiencies of government accounting and financial-management system. Foreign experience has proved that a system of output appropriation provides a workable alternative to the traditional input-based system and can yield substantial advantages for both departmental management and government decision makers.

This essay depicts he alternative approach to investments in public sector. Author expresses his belief on evaluating and rating investments in public sector in the same way as in private sector. The simple theoretical analysis and foreign experiences give enough evidence about feasibility of such approach even in defence sector. Nowadays, in governments across the world, public-sector financial systems are being transformed more fundamentally than at any time in decades. The changes are taking place to respond to a number of deficiencies of government accounting and financial-management system. Foreign experience has proved that a system of output appropriation provides a workable alternative to the traditional input-based system and can yield substantial advantages for both departmental management and government decision makers.

This paper deals with aspects of intelligence analysis that very often influence the quality of intelligence information utilized by end users. Such analysis requires not only analytical thinking, but also specific experiences of all personnel exploiting collected information. The same body of information may result in multiple analytic products, with different security classifications, time scales, and level of detail. The result of this process is an analytical product - evaluation without any idle speculation and pseudo prophecy. Evaluation and interpretation must describe up-to-date conditions and demonstrate the clusters of future images with alternative developments. Reasonable evaluation reduces uncertainty and makes user's decision easier. At the end the author concentrates on rules of analytical team control and management.

The outcomes of battles and fighting are significantly influenced by weather conditions. Together with other important circumstances they decide a chosen combat strategy, operational art, warfare tactics, and ways of personnel and vehicles deployment; consequently the volume of losses or casualties. The authors recount the establishing of weather service within individual arms, creating fi rst weather charts, they give details on situation in pre-war republic, during WWII, in the 50s, even after the Velvet Revolution in 1989. They mention the names of eminent personalities of Czech Hydrometeorological Service to be honoured and remembered. We must also remind that our Hydrometeorological Service works not only in favour of the ACR, but also for other NATO countries.

The term "hybrid war" is frequently used today within the military community, but the term does not bring something new in the view of the terminology of the stability operations, comprehensive approach or compound wars. This concept is based on the destructive threats to the military components of international community. It does not help in delimiting reasons of violent confl ict and from that point it is harmful, as it does not explain soldiers why they are fi ghting the "just war", why they should sacrifi ce their lives in confl icts far away from their homeland. We should not use terms of hybrid wars, hybrid confl icts, hybrid enemies or forces. Only "hybrid warfare" could find some legitimacy, but only when used with the correct definition of the conflict typology, backed by the political objectives of the war. Confl icts typology, as used, forms the framework for the mission analysis orientation at all command & control levels and it guides the informational support to the military decision making processes.

The article depicts the methods of logistical support to combat units of the German Federal Forces (Bundeswehr), deployed in Afghanistan. Professionally trained and prepared personnel are capable to meet requirements of forces in ISAF operations. The centralizations of composite logistical services can guarantee the lowering of payments and expenses in logistics. Such arrangement makes logistic activities more economical, namely by taking over of mechanisms used in civilian economy sphere. This method is called "focused logistics". It is used for logistical support of small contingents. Its characteristic feature is interconnection of logistical data and transport technologies, rapid crisis response, and the ability of logistical support during all combat and non-combat activities.

The article deals with the disintegration and erosion of originally cohesive Chechen resistance movement during the First Chechen War and following inter-war period. According to the author, the main reasons of this process are criminality and religious fundamental radicalisation. They together produced inner confl icts between fi eld commanders; some of them attacked Russian security forces in neighbouring regions (Dagestan, Ingushetia), even after war had ended. Disintegration processes were encouraged by social deprivation after the first war, by strategical position of Chechnya in relation to smuggling drugs and weapons, stealing rude oil, and fi nally activities of foreign Islamic solidarity fi ghters. All those factors signifi cantly contributed to the outbreak of the Second Chechnya War.

This article presents trends in actual physical status of Czech population with emphasis to the military population. The battery of standard tests was used to monitor the basic health related parameters. This test battery was applied to large sample demographic groups. The results verify expected trends. Anthropometrical data show that the population reaches critical level of overweight at age of 40. Blood pressure tends to increase more rapidly after age of 45. Strength and cardiovascular fitness peaks at age of 25, followed by steady decline. Although it was predicted that military personnel should reach higher physical fitness level and lower risk factors, there were no significant difference between military and civilian population. Effect of three-month basic training on actual health status is quite positive, it improves body composition, but no special effect on overall strength. Higher levels of physical readiness were found only in small special units.

The problem of forming military decisions lies in the very core of this article. Among others, there are a lot of highly unpredictable impact factors; there are many assessment criteria for individual variants of solving problems. Criteria of qualitative characters, and various interpretations of data information demand quality decisions; they are sometimes difficult to understand and even contradictory. The commanders and their staffs must be well educated, trained and experienced. To meet this precondition we must ensure quality of career training, supported by practical experiences. The staff work must be practiced regularly, with the use of various scenarios, supplemented by historical studies of past or recent fi ghts and battles.

In the Czech Republic, the schooling of security experts is broken into fragments, i.e. into many fields of study, which go beyond security politics. The state of affairs can't be regarded as satisfactory. The first step is the Resolution of Czech Security Council No. 32/2007, Common Minimum for Security Experts, which put a proposal to introduce security issues into teaching programmes in universities and institutions of further education, so that such institutions could obtain accreditation in this field. This minimum is specified namely for undergraduate study; graduated security studies ought to be more specialized. Political scientists involved in the study of security policy should attempt to devise solutions for problems of public concern. Security study covers issues such as non-military threats and risks, proliferation, pollution, natural disasters, mass migration, economy risks. It is tied with international relations, foreign policy and national security strategies.

The author summarises most common and repeated mistakes of graduated officers after leaving military schools. Junior officers are practically in the same position as young manager in civil life, so we can find some analogies in civil managerial leadership. Civil manager face practically the same problems and situations. There are various mistakes that junior officers ought to be warned. Such educational instructions and leadership should be implemented into military schools' curricula. Backed by a vast amount of studied literature, the author offers his own solution. He makes use of five myths by Linda Hill, professor at Harvard Business School. The problem is to avoid extreme leadership styles: dictatorlike and benevolent ones.

The document "A Secure Europe in a Better World" approved in 2003 has introduced the so-called the European Security Strategy. The authors use this framework to refer to the whole set of organisations, people and activities, both military and civilian, to ensure capabilities to be delivered effectively and efficiently, both in current surroundings and in preparation for the future. They are members of the Centre for Social and Economic Strategies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University Prague, which has conducted a wide-ranging research work to detect the long-term trends, factors and actors shaping the position of the Czech Republic in European environment. The article illustrates the evolution of the key structural factors affecting change over the two decades to come-demography, the economy, energy, the environment, science and technology-and addresses some of the main questions concerning the future of the international system.

Animals have been used for military purposes from the ancient world to nowadays. Horses, elephants, mules and camels were carrying supplies and took part in battles. Dogs were trained for securing livestock and military camps. Soviet army used them as live mines during World War II. The U.S. Army explored the possibility of using bats as live incendive devices. Even the terrorists could use animals for destroying chosen targets in the same way armies used to do. The deployment of animals would be advantageous for any terrorist group because security forces would not expect this kind of attack. Up to now, there have been just a few cases of abusing animals by terrorists, e.g. for bomb laden mules or dogs carcasses which hide explosive devices. But animals could also help with the fight against terrorism, for example dogs or bluegill fish.

The Combined Joint Exercise was focused on the European approach to crisis management operations and involved an annual exchange of students and directing staffs between of the Higher Command and Staff Colleges from France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and Spain. The aim of this article is to provide knowledge and personal experience of its author based on his own participation in this exercise at the Escuela Superior de las Fuerzas Armadas (ESFAS) Madrid. The purpose of the exercise was to foster the understanding, mutual knowledge and dialogue among the offi cers of the aforementioned colleges through the practice of operational planning. Among general information describing the character of the exercise, the article defines some areas of the operational art, namely Operational Planning Process, Operational Design, Decisive Point Concept and Centre of Gravity Analysis.

The deteriorating situation in the Afghanistan region poses a security threat not just to the United States, but to every single nation. It was from that remote area of the world that Al Qai'da plotted 9/11 and subsequent attacks in Europe and elsewhere. Reading news about Afghanistan today gives rise to the question why the situation in this country is such as now really is. Ordinary mass media depict the country often in a confusing manner: Afghanistan as "a country, full of terrorists and uneducated barbarians, longing to destroy western civilization and kill". The author describes bad security situation which presents problem for both coalition soldiers and local Afghanistan population. At the same time we must realize that involved soldiers are exposed every day to asymmetric enemy forces, they stand face to face to mortar danger that could be hidden in for example in every car passing by.

Computer-Aided Logistic Support (CALS) appeared for the first time in 1984 in a common study of US government and American defence industry. The study recommended using technical data in digital form. Further it was changed into Computer-Aided Acquisition and Logistic Support and in 1994 the acronym CALS was changed into Continuous Acquisition and Life-Cycle Support. At present we interpret CALS as the support to all automatized processes with fully digitalized data processing. Among its important tools belong LCC (Life-Cycle Costs) and risk management. It is a vast standardization strategy, covering the whole life cycle, via acquisition process, its support, innovation and product disposal. CALS is supposed to make acquisition procedures in the ACR more effective.

This article aims at building a bridge upon a gap, which separates academic sphere and intelligence community in the issue of predictive methodology. The author tries to accomplish this objective by presenting intelligence predictive methods based on open-source literature research. First, the question of uncertainty and probability in prediction is introduced (Cynefin template). Then follows basic introduction to predictive methods in civil and military intelligences, so that the reader might grasp the fundamentals of early warning systems. The academics and above all journalists should know the risks and perils in forming intelligence forecasts, estimates, foresight and warning scenarios, e.g. the so-called Black Swan scenario, the author explains potentials failures of the Delphi method. This study ought to be regarded as an introductory to predictive intelligence concurrently done by governmental agencies for purposes of national security and defence.

This year we marked the 10th anniversary of our full membership in NATO. We've verified that the nation can become a "full fledged member" in eight or ten years at earliest. Signing the treaty, you became "only" a freshman. You must learn everything, from "consensus building" to forming informal coalition. The author of this article, Deputy of the Czech Permanent Representative to NATO, summarizes the history of fulfilling the membership's prerequisites and following difficult process of implementation of fundamentals and requirements, e.g. the so-called NATO legal acquis (Status of Forces Agreement), Planning and Review Process, setting Force Goals, fixing Identification Friend or Foe on Mi-21 aircraft assigned for Air Policing, problems with developing home infrastructure for Host Nation Support. We joined common security planning, took part in NATO Security Investment Programme and Conference of National Armaments Directors. But today's organization is quite different that used to be, the role and missions have changed. We must be prepared to meet them too.

The article sums up the evolution of the Czech officers' qualification structure since the start of downsizing in 1990 and provides an outlook beyond 2010. At the early 90's graduate education used to be only for officers. A total of 65 % were holding university degrees. Today this number reaches 98 %, with 3 % holding Ph.D. or CSc. degrees. There is also an increase in numbers of WOs with graduate education, it is 4 %, despite the fact that such qualification is not necessary for them. Authors discuss this evolution and compare it with the ageing of the Czech population and overall academic education system. The gradual decrease of people aged 20-24 till 2020 is an important challenge to reforming recruitment and education of junior officers. The reform is needed to avoid deficits in quality junior officers and consequently the lack of personnel selection for military education at the University of Defence.

It is an information study about sociological research completed among Czech servicemen, former members of military missions abroad, under the aegis of the rector of the University of Defence. The research goal consisted in finding causal relationship between missions and breakup rates. Among others it was determined that for breakups were predispositions even before partners went to missions abroad. A total of 3 % stated they wanted to escape from family problems. Partnership after returning home broke up in 15.6 % of questioned veterans. Research should provide cornerstone data for a proposal of concrete measures for reducing divorces and partings. The stratified sample consists of 348 respondents from the ACR who took part at least in one mission abroad and were married, or lived in long-term partnership. Data collection lasted from July to October 2008.

Had PhDr. Miroslav Purkrábek, CSc. was still alive today, he would be 80 years old. It was on September 8, 2005, that Miroslav Purkrábek, suffered a stroke. This year it has been fi ve years since he died. He was a person who contributed to social sciences on three distinctive fi elds: military sociology, sociology of military health, and sociology of public policy. As a gifted scholar he expected that alongside with disarmament talks and preparing collective defence, especially after the fall of world?s socialist system, that task of the army would shift towards preventive, threatening role. But he even lived to see the moments when military professionals were engaged in real combat, in preemptive conflicts, against non-traditional, assymetric forces of guerrilla character. At the same time he could see that another hypothesis of transition to all professional forces was going be fulfi lled. Unfortunately, the Czech Army was not prepared for this important process, as political and MoD leaders at were occupied by this theme of professionalization only marginally.