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Where Are You Going, Defence Department?Opinions, controversyPplk. Ing. Karel VávraVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 68-75 The autor responds to several articles published in our Military Review, namely by Prof. František Ochrana, Prof. František Božek, Brigadier Rudolf Urban, Prof. Miroslav Krč, in No. 4/2008, with special appreciation to critical articles by Ing. Jiří Dušek and Lt.Col. Ing František Růžička in the same issue. He tries to find out common denominators of those essays. There are three of them: economization tied with rationalization, risk management, and information compatibility. As necessary he regards to unite those denominators both at the level of decision making officials and at the level of their subordinated elements, by means of e.g. working teams as a guarantee of coordination, so that the adopted Long-term Vision of Defence Department could be actually realized. |
The Strategic Implications of Climate ChangeInformational pagesVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 111-117 The world's leading climate scientists poses fundamental questions of human security, survival and the stability of nation states. While state weakness and destabilizing internal conflicts are a more likely outcome than interstate war, climate change will be a stress multiplier for all nations and societies, especially those already at risk from ethnic and religious conflicts, economic weakness and environmental degradation. Strategic planners ought to include worst-case climate-change scenarios in their contingency planning, as climate change is set to rank with terrorism, pandemic diseases and major war as one of the principle challenges to security in the twenty-first century. Source: A. Dupont, Survival, Issue 3, 2008, adapted. |
The Place and Mission of Defence Industrial Complex in Economy and Politics of the Russian FederationInformational pagesProf. PhDr. Miroslav Krč, CSc., dr. Luboš Štancl, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2006, Vol. XV. (XLVII.): 74-87 90s introduced the new beginning of international and economical relations. The former USSR used to be overmilitarized state that is now transforming into a democratic republic. After 2000, the RF adopted many arrangements to stabilize the fall of Russian defence industry. The poor results of Russian economy motivated the federal government towards forming five defence agencies (in 1999): Russian Aeronautic and Space Agency (aeronautics and rocket industry), Russian Agency for Command and Control Systems (avionics, electronic industry), Russian Agency for Conventional Weaponry (arms and armament industry), Russian Agency for Ordnance and Munitions, Russian Agency for Shipbuilding. Nevertheless, the ageing of redundant and unnecessary military industries demands horizontal integration that might facilitate cooperation among individual enterprises. This process could help to unify military products and concentrate on modern weaponry, to improve applied technologies, corresponding to demands of 21st century forces. |
Today's Diverse Army: Changes in the System of Training and Career Preparation of Junior OfficersMilitary artPplk. Ing. Bohuslav Pernica, Ph.D., plk. gšt. Ing. Jaromír Zůna, MSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 43-48 The article elaborates local conditions that lead to the fundamental changes in recruitment and preparation system of new army officers. Traditionally, new career officers used to be graduates from military colleges (since 2004 University of Defence). Due to the changes aroused by the transition from conscription to all volunteer forces, Czech military is experiencing increased internal and external pressures on this traditional models of recruitment and preparation. At present, the most visible outcome of this development is severe shortage of junior officers. The combination of internal and external factors (competitive civilian job market) brings the need for expansion of the traditional recruitment models. One of the most promising ways of manning appears to be recruitment of graduates from civilian universities and their subsequent military training at Military Academy in Vyškov. |
The War Hero Has Gone Away: Major General (ret.) Ing. Antonín PetrákPersonal dataVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 158-161 As a young army lieutenant he left for France to fight against hated German invaders. In Great Britain, he spontaneously enrol for the fight behind the front lines, but because of his pedagogical capabilities he became an instructor of airborne troops in the so-called Special Training Schools organized by British SOE. In Scottish Traigh House, the main training facility of Czechoslovak paratroopers, he worked as a translator, combat instructor, and even the commander of combat course. In 1944 he took over the position of brigade company commander of supporting arms, Czech Armoured Division. After landing in Northern France, he took part in many fights and was decorated by several Czech and British medals and orders. After war he started to study at the High War School designated for the future high-ranking officers. After coup d'etat in 1948 he was discharged from the army and sentenced to Working Camp for the former army officers Mírov. In 1959 he was arrested again for the letter informing Czechoslovak authorities about conditions in this working camp. After November 1989 he was rehabilitated and gradually promoted to the rank of Major General. After the division of Czechoslovakia he became the chairman of Legionary Community in Slovakia. |
Administrative Culture and the Economization of Activities in Defence SectorNonreviewed - OtherProf. PhDr. Miroslav Krč CSc., brig. gen. prof. Ing. Rudolf Urban, CSc., dr.h.c.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 21-35 The administrative culture is something like "mind set" of "software" of organization, its philosophy, a part of which is the so-called economization. The process of economization of defence sphere will lead to further decrease in numbers, cutting down redundant materiel, supplies. Such economy measures should produce savings in terms of hundred millions Czech crowns, side by side with the increased potential of the whole military organization. The authors introduce Activities in Defence Sector the CAF model (Common Assessment Framework), based upon the Model Excellence of the European Foundation for Quality Management, expressed by the following formula: factors involved equals personnel times activities (education) times facilities (investments). There are some similarities between army management and business administration, so the economy instructions ought to be part of overall military education and training. |
From Model Formula to Verification and Practical Implementation of Economic ControlInformational pagesIng. Svatopluk KuncVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 129-138 The purpose of this study is to analyse system of economic control at a level of expense institution of the ACR in comparison with theoretical approaches and experiences of civilian company economics and the practice of NATO armies. The author wants to postulate necessary prerequisites widening the space for rationale economy behaviour and decision-making of leading army management. He creates an economic model constituting methods, proceedings, tools of economic control in all phases of budgeting and accounting processes, behaviour of the whole economic system of defence department. The case study is based upon the presentation delivered at the international conference on economy, logistics and ecology in armed forces taking place at IDET 2009 trade fair. Proposed methods should be used for sources allocation, value based management costing transparency, resulting in saving sources and increasing personal responsibility. |
Rationales behind the Development of Anti-Ballistic DefenceOpinions, controversyBc. Tomáš KučeraVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 76-85 Anti-ballistic missiles are missiles designed to counter enemy's ballistic missiles. First, the author compares strategic patterns reflecting various eras of the former bipolar world. Their mutual balance of that time could be described as Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD). As long as MAD was a fact of life, the ABM Treaty fulfilled its important function as a cornerstone of strategic stability. Keeping nuclear arsenals at a level which is not even justifiable is selfcontradictory, as the military strategy and targeting policy is based on the capability of the other side, not on its intentions. Today's Russian policy is shaped by the status-driven desire to deal with the United States from a position of power-related symmetry and strategic parity, by negating the unique position of the United States. The American ballistic missile defence policy used to be also a central element of their containment strategy towards China. However, at present, Ballistic Missile Defence (BDM) sets as a top-priory the defence against the so-called rough states, rather than against Moscow or Beijing. |
Chapters on Security (Informative Review)Book reviewPhDr. Antonín Rašek.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 101-102 In 2007, Karolinum, Publishing House Charles University Prage, released the book "Chapters on Security" by renowned security experts and analysts Messrs Balabán, Duchek, and Stejskal. The authors deal with main components of Czech national security system: armed forces and police, integrated rescue system, intelligence services, municipal police and private security agencies (the role of which in national security system is underestimated). The book also describes the UN and other international organizations, NATO, EU and OSCE, together with their security strategies. The world state of affairs is serious, namely with the relation to terrorism after 9/11 2001 attacks. The old security concepts are being re-evaluated, simultaneously with new risks classification, e.g. in the context of the so-called Copenhagen school (theory originating in Copenhagen, Denmark). It is a descriptive publication, by its structure targeted above all for university students, but suitable for readers who are interested in security problems. |
Doktrina Armady CRIng. Jiří ŠedivýVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2001, Vol. X. (XLII.): 20-70 |
Cash Fulfilment of State Budget, Expense Section, Defence Ministry Chapter, 2004 till 2007Opinions, controversyPplk. Ing. Bohuslav Pernica, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 49-53 An article in the Vojenské rozhledy magazine triggered an argument over the importance cash-flow planning for the application of 3E-methodology at the Czech MoD in 2004. Today's study re-opens this argument again, but on the background of the modernization of Czech state finance management and the implementation of a modern cash-flow management into the Czech public finance, under the authority of Finance Ministry. Those processes profoundly affected the economic policy of the MoD, granting more responsibility and economic independence. MoD is allowed to formulate, administer and control its own financial policy to reach higher cost-effectiveness. But does the ministry really become a better financial manager? This article deals with fiscal years 2004-2007. |
Centre of Gravity-the Decisive Operational Concept Part IIMilitary artPlk. gšt. Ing. Ján SpišákVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 36-43 The second part of this short serial deals with the theory of the operational art focusing on the centre of gravity (COG). The article emanates from Carl von Clausewitz's ideas, doctrinal publications analysis and many study projects of the operational art theorists. The author especially aims on disunity and heterogeneity of comprehension of the centre of gravity theory in confrontation of contemporary doctrinal publications and original Clausewitz's theory. He compares operational manuals (those of U.S. and NATO), and finds similarities concerning characteristics, capabilities or localities from which a military force, nation or alliance, derives its freedom of action, physical strength or will to fight. Finally, he himself defines enemy's centre of gravity and highlights coherences that can affect fulfilling political and military objectives in current and future military operations. |
Missions and Tasks of ACR Logistics Since its Establishment till PresentMilitary professionalProf. Ing. Petr Hajna, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 142-148 The author discusses the issues surrounding the construction of modern logistic support for the Czech Army as it transforms from a conscript to an all professional force of agile, light forces, with high reliability and low support requirements. The basic philosophy is to create comprehensive system that would offer complex service for a commander in the field of materiel, technology and medical services. The logistics reform must be supported by enhancing communication systems (Information Logistics System) and by seeking the ways of rationale savings, to reach the highest level of compatibility with logistics systems of other NATO nations. "Time Based Competition" and "Time Compression" must be accepted at all levels of logistics system both in peace and field conditions. In the future, the security problems will be managed more by civilian means than by hard force. The goals will be political, economical and cultural. Those changing threats will ask logistic support to be more flexible, mobile, integrated, compact and precise. |
Peacetime Application of Some IHL Provisions in Time of PeaceInformational pagesRNDr. Marek Jukl, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 85-88 It is generally known that norms of international humanitarian law are applicable for the protection of selected groups during interstate or domestic conflicts, but this paper is devoted to the chronological scope of application of the Geneva Conventions and Additional Protocols even in time of peace. The author demonstrates that the Article 3 of the Additional Protocol I implies the peacetime applicability of certain provisions of the Conventions and Additional Protocols. Examples of such provisions of the Additional Protocol I are also brought in this article. Among others, he extents the notion of humanitarian law in peace, which is very often limited only to preparation of personnel and schooling. |
Security in the year 2020 with the Prospects to 2050 (Summary of Security Community Views) - Part Two-the EndMilitary sociologyPhDr. Antonín RašekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2006, Vol. XV. (XLVII.): 120-138 This second and closing part of this security study covers decades before the half of this century. The leading role in prevention and fight against armed conflicts will rest namely upon intelligence services. It is also expected the mass use of nonlethal weapons. The US will stay as the only leading superpower, minority expects a plurality model, i.e. the US will be only first among the equals. Some predicts the collapse of the EU. The Army of the Czech Republic ought to achieve full operational potential around the year 2012. It will take part in multinational missions. The Alliance armies should have 8 per cent of their capacities fully operable abroad. Under the preventive strategy, the regions of their prospective deployment will be in bordering countries around Europe, areas around the Eastern Mediterranean, or in the Far East. More or less, one problem remains still open: whether foreign deployments of the ACR really correspond to the interests and needs of the Czech Republic. |
Mission of the Czech Republic in Afghanistan: The Trial of New DimensionsMilitary artPhDr. Libor StejskalVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 101-106 The Czech Republic became involved in ISAF in 2002, among others we sent there both field hospital and field surgical team; later meteorological group, traffic control group with EOD team began to serve at the Kabul International Airport. In 2004, the 601st Special Force Group was engaged in Enduring Freedom operation, Czech soldiers served in German Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT), positive role was played by Czech Operational Mentoring and Liaison Team. Another successful mission was establishing PRT Logar, supporting social, economical development in this province. New common features of PRT, helicopter OMLT, EUPOL mission, partly SOG is the concentration on building Afghan capacities, namely ANSF (Afghan National Security Force) and public administration. Together with their deliberate support, it has multiplying effect, as assistance and training bring more effects than mere fulfilling standard military tasks, guarding e.g. Dutch base. |
A European Way of "Humane Security"ReviewedIng. Vladimír Karaffa, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 3-10 Many people in the world lead intolerably insecure lives. In many cases insecurity is the consequence of armed conflicts in which civilians are deliberately targeted, sometimes, their insecurity has natural causes, like earthquakes, hurricane, tsunami or disease, they suffer from famine. Security is a broader term, covering not only military threats. Human rather than nation-state security should be at the heart of European policy. Instead of defeating enemies or pacifying warring parties, EU missions should focus on protecting civilians, through law enforcement with the occasional use of force. EU member states ought to support a new framework for the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP). The following seven principles are underlined: (i) the primacy of Human Rights, (ii) clear political authority, (iii) multilateralism, (iv) a bottom-approach, (v) regional focus; (vi) the use of legal instruments, (vii) the appropriate use of force. In fact, underlines Mr. Karaffa, humane security concept forms the very base of common European culture and identity. |
Orientace na perspektivni obranne technologieDoc. Ing. Bohuslav Víšek, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2003, Vol. XII. (XLIV.): 43-52 |
European Security in Global Context (Reflections over Security Analyses and Prognoses in the World, the EU and the CR in 2003-2008)ReviewedPhDr. Miloš Balabán, Ph.D., PhDr. Antonín RašekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 23-30 The document "A Secure Europe in a Better World" approved in 2003 has introduced the so-called the European Security Strategy. The authors use this framework to refer to the whole set of organisations, people and activities, both military and civilian, to ensure capabilities to be delivered effectively and efficiently, both in current surroundings and in preparation for the future. They are members of the Centre for Social and Economic Strategies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University Prague, which has conducted a wide-ranging research work to detect the long-term trends, factors and actors shaping the position of the Czech Republic in European environment. The article illustrates the evolution of the key structural factors affecting change over the two decades to come-demography, the economy, energy, the environment, science and technology-and addresses some of the main questions concerning the future of the international system. |
New Phenomena in Defence Economy of State after Breaking up BipolarityNonreviewed - ResearchIng. Aleš OlejníčekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2006, Vol. XV. (XLVII.): 25-39 The purpose of this article is to get readers acquainted with new facts that are arising in the sphere of defence and security of state and at the same time they might influence defence economics research. This recent phenomena came into existence as a consequence of new world layout and events especially tied with massive terrorist attacks after September 2001. |
Life Cycle of ACR Base in Missions AbroadMilitary artMjr. Ing. Eva Zezulová, Ph.D., mjr. Ing. Jiří Štoller, Ph.D., pplk. doc. Ing. Pavel Maňas, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 107-113 The article is focused on the Czech military bases during mission abroad and introduces new term "Life Cycle of Military Base". Every system has its own successive stages through which it passes; concept that compares the cyclical nature of organizations, systems, is called life cycle. The Reach-Back concept divides lifetime of the military base into seven phases: Assignment (task, goals), Preparation, Proposal (draft), Designing, Building, Running and Cancelling. The definition and description of all phases of the Life Cycle of Military Bases is an important contribution to solving series of problems connected with designing, building, running and cancelling of military bases during mission abroad. Dividing into separate sections contributes to the well-mastered supervision of base, as it indicates factual structures of individual stages of daily routine of the base and thus it lowers the risks of neglecting some activities. |
Education in the Field of SecurityInformational pagesIng. Miroslav JurenkaVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 110-114 In the Czech Republic, the schooling of security experts is broken into fragments, i.e. into many fields of study, which go beyond security politics. The state of affairs can't be regarded as satisfactory. The first step is the Resolution of Czech Security Council No. 32/2007, Common Minimum for Security Experts, which put a proposal to introduce security issues into teaching programmes in universities and institutions of further education, so that such institutions could obtain accreditation in this field. This minimum is specified namely for undergraduate study; graduated security studies ought to be more specialized. Political scientists involved in the study of security policy should attempt to devise solutions for problems of public concern. Security study covers issues such as non-military threats and risks, proliferation, pollution, natural disasters, mass migration, economy risks. It is tied with international relations, foreign policy and national security strategies. |
Is Building a Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone in the Near East Feasible?Informational pagesJUDr. Miroslav TůmaVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 65-72 The establishment of nuclear-free zones in various regions covers roughly 110 countries and thus helps to the final aim--freeing of the world of nuclear, biological and chemical arms. Nuclear-free zones are suitable counterpart to other institutions to stop proliferation of nuclear weapons and the threat of its usage: Non-Proliferation Treaty, Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention, Chemical Weapons Convention, Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. The risk of nuclear proliferation in the Near East is high, the main obstacle lies in different attitudes of key actors to the successive operations: whether to create peaceful arrangement among all involved states as a first step (proposed by Israel), or preferably to renounce atomic weapons (proposed by Arabic countries). The author suggests rethinking security interests in the Near East, to remove deployment of nuclear weapons from military doctrines, to concentrate on soft security to bolster up mutual trust, to create security guarantees and transparency in the region. |
Contemplations over Obama's Security PolicyReviewedPhDr. Antonín RašekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 3-11 It is evident that Barack Obama diverges from Bush's pre-emptive strategy. There are changes in style and contents. Obama begins to direct American policy more towards diplomatic negotiations instead underlining military strength. It is evident namely in proposed negotiations with Iran and in case of Russia, where he wants to overcome cooling down after Russia-Georgia clashes and gas crisis. He insists on avoiding unnecessary conflicts and puts stress on good relations with allies and building new partnerships. He is going to withdraw soldiers from Iraq and in spite of problems in Afghanistan to reduce U.S. military budget. Even though Obama wants to maintain American world's leadership, there are some signs of partial changes in American foreign policy, e.g. his orientation towards Asia suggests first signs of multilateral approach of post-American era. The author also mentions the question of "American radar" in the Czech Republic, the fate of which depends on Iran's nuclear power programme. |
The Legacy of Sammuel Huntington (From the Prevalence ofIdeological Conflicts to the Clash of Cultures)Book reviewPhDr. Antonín Rašek.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 152-155 This essay is based up ideas summarized in Huntington's famous book The Clash of Civilizations. According to Mr. Huntington, there are seven or eight world civilizations. The West is "unique"-but its values are not universal. World politics is entering a new phase, in which the great divisions among humankind and the dominating source of international conflict will be cultural. The decline of the nation state from the conflicting pulls of tribalism and globalism, among others. The author of this essay introduces individual world's cultures and traces prognostic visions both from historical and topical point of view. He warns against intervening into civil wars, as we know very little about their cultural background which must be respected; our interventions might be disserviceable. |
Intelligence Support to Psychological OperationsInformational pagesMgr. Jiří HodnýVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 113-117 Intelligence activity is an essential part of psychological operations (PSYOPS). Intelligence data are collected, treated, and assessed by intelligence officers together with analytical specialists in cooperation with intelligence authorities from other services. Two basic documents are made. First, in British Army, it is called Country Area Study; in US forces it is labelled as PSYOP Basic Study. The second type of studies represents the assessment of target audience, called in British Army Basic Psychological Study, in US Special PSYOP Assessment. Gathered information are integrated into special electronic bases, e.g. SOCRATES (Special Operations Command, Research, Analysis and Threat Evaluation Data System), or POADS (Psychological Operations Automated Data System) used by the US Army. The rating of effectiveness of psychological campaigns is extremely difficult and consists of several phases. Even enemy's propaganda is analyzed. This process is of specific structure, categorized as SCAME (Source, Content, Audience, Media, and Effect). For PSYOPS operations is extreme important their precise timing. Legal Aspects of "Consciousness and Religion" |
Koncepce vystavby profesionalni Armady Ceske republiky a mobilizace ozbrojenych sil Ceske republikyVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2002, Vol. XI. (XLIII.): 14-55 |
The Theory of Culminating Point Part IIMilitary artPlk. gšt. Ing. Ján SpišákVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 41-48 It is a point at which attacking forces are unable to continue their attack or even defend themselves, because do casualties, shortages of fuel, ammunition and rations, and sheer physical exhaustion. This sequel article deals with the theory of the operational art focusing on the culminating point operational concept. The article emanates from Carl von Clausewitz's ideas and concepts described in his book "On War", doctrinal publications analysis and study projects of the operational art theorists. It treats conditions influencing achievement of the culminating point on single levels of war-strategic, operational and tactical and highlights coherences and factors having fundamental influences on culmination. The article is accompanied by several graphs describing this theory in detail. Key words: Culmination, Culminating Point, Zeroing, Intelligence Preparation of the Battlespace, Campaign Planning and Developing Operations. |
Virtual University of Jihad: Training and Schooling Islamic Terrorists in CyberspaceInformational pagesMgr. Jiří HodnýVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 115-120 This article is discussing the role of the Internet in the Islamic terrorist movement. It describes how the nature of the Internet provides the perfect medium for terrorism. Major terrorist organizations now have their own production capability, ranging from video capture, to video editing, to distribution, but, these organizations also have an advanced understanding of the concepts of influence, information warfare, and the power of targeted messages. This is further highlighted by the fact that among al Qaeda's original organizational structure was a committee dedicated to publicity and the media. The internet plays the role as a means of propaganda for recruitment and fund-raising, shaping public opinion in the Muslim world, terrorist training and instruction, operational planning for attacks, communication and open source information. |
Cataclysm Scenario 2050-Imagining the UnthinkableNonreviewed - OtherProf. Ing. Josef Říha, DrSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 3-10 The purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable of the worst case scenario for the global future post-modern society. The analysis addresses the main features of global risk society, human suffering, and loss of life from natural catastrophes, man-made catastrophes, economic losses, peak-oilcrises impacts, threat of terrorism, radical Islam, fragile states, etc. Important are the consequences of the end of the Vestfal system and global climate change. There is substantial evidence to indicate that significant global warming will occur during the 21st century. The research suggests that once temperature rises above some threshold, adverse weather conditions could develop relatively abruptly. Drought persists for most of the decade in critical agricultural regions and in the water resource regions for major population centres in Europe. As fertility shrivels, societies get older-and much of Europe are set to get older than any functioning societies have ever been. To avoid collapse, European nations will need to take immigrants at a rate no stable society ever attempted. Europe will be significantly more Islamic. |

