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The Future Objectives of the Armed Forces of the Czech RepublicNonreviewed - OtherIng.Josef Procházka, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 31-38 The author of this article considers the prospective changes in the development, character, missions and tasks of the Army of the Czech Republic, Those changes are deduced from the changing security environment and long-term development trends. To meet new demands, we must continue in building interoperability and compatibility. The battlefield operations will be planned and controlled by the systems of "Network Centric Warfare" and "Reach Back Operations". It will not be necessary for a commander to be in physical contact with operational theatre. Electronical high speed intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, reconnaissance will enable the high pace of military operations (together with common analyses, integration of collected data, evaluation of enemy's intents and activities). This will enable to build a credible defence, in the frame of collective security system, hand in hand with other NATO allies. |
Provincial Reconstruction Teams in Afghanistan (New PRT Patterns)Military artIng. Pavel ZonaVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 57-63 The so-called Provincial reconstruction teams (PRTs) are a relatively new concept and element in coalition operations. Those teams have been operating in Afghanistan since the end of the year 2002. The evaluation and assessment of their work is very complicated and sometimes quite unambiguous. The main purpose of this article is to show to widest military community tasks and problems of PRTs; secondly to introduce main principles of work of PRTs under different conditions. Moreover, this article refers to fundamental problems that guide their PRTs development and work in countries that have some experiences with building and activities of PRTs. The author also describes the activities of 40 Czech military personnel PRT in Afghanistan (in the frame of German PRT, Badakshan Province, Fayzabad). |
Missions and Tasks of ACR Logistics Since its Establishment till PresentMilitary professionalProf. Ing. Petr Hajna, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 142-148 The author discusses the issues surrounding the construction of modern logistic support for the Czech Army as it transforms from a conscript to an all professional force of agile, light forces, with high reliability and low support requirements. The basic philosophy is to create comprehensive system that would offer complex service for a commander in the field of materiel, technology and medical services. The logistics reform must be supported by enhancing communication systems (Information Logistics System) and by seeking the ways of rationale savings, to reach the highest level of compatibility with logistics systems of other NATO nations. "Time Based Competition" and "Time Compression" must be accepted at all levels of logistics system both in peace and field conditions. In the future, the security problems will be managed more by civilian means than by hard force. The goals will be political, economical and cultural. Those changing threats will ask logistic support to be more flexible, mobile, integrated, compact and precise. |
The Rating of Aggregate Objectives Applied by Defence Management by Objectives: The Enlistment Goal CaseOpinions, controversyPplk. Ing. Bohuslav Pernica, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 49-51 Management by objectives works very well only if there is a rating and evaluation system of objectives. To form such organization one is not easy, especially when using aggregate objectives, combining many partial objectives of various levels. This article deals with the problem how to rate and evaluate this kind of aggregate objectives. The problem is explained in the enlistment goal 2008 of the Czech Armed Forces, which sets the number of volunteers joining the Czech Armed Forces in 2008. The key role here is played by the suitable gauges steering a level (percentage) reached. Thus, recruiting reflects manning the Czech forces by professional personnel in a given period (calendar year). The author proposes to run recruitment for military schools separate from enlistment for the army, i.e. to conceive this recruitment only as a practical goal. |
The Place and Role of Private Companies in Securing Defence Means in GermanyInformational pagesProf. PhDr. Miroslav Krč, CSc., por. Ing. Martin KlusáčekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 85-106 The very modern trends in the forces of advanced countries are hiring private civilian companies, private enterprises, in everyday performance of armed forces. As this phenomenon is very frequent, the authors decided to go into its roots, to find a common cause of this fact. In the past, armies were closed societies, self-sufficient, independent from states. Today, gradually, soldiers became more concentrated on key military tasks and supporting functions are transferred to private companies. The German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) takes over mechanics used in private sector: it integrates economy dimension. Above all, it is transparency of bookkeeping, which ought to give evidence on savings in everyday life of forces. The Bundeswehr uses the so-called Market Testing, as a means of practical cooperation for engaging private capital. All those fact are cited as thoughprovoking. |
Reflections over the Transformation of Czech ArmyNonreviewedPhDr. Antonín RašekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 29-37 The basic question of Army transformation was the fact that it was not constituted upon the statehood principle that gives precedence to politicking individual parties. The ultimate goal of this transformation was to build forces loyal to democratic republic, but during the last ten years the top personnel at the Ministry of Defence changed several times, leaving the Army with restricted means, without precise laid down tasks and goals. Uncontrolled interventions into forces structure, reducing numbers of military personnel, lead to balance on the verge of collapse. The basic goal to develop Czech national security and defence policies did not fell short. Army was transforming itself, initially under the management of former generals and later under civilian control, especially after 1991. The division of the armed forces after the split-up of the state at the turn of 1992 went very smoothly, with good discipline. The transformation has been influenced above all by the newly adopted legislation, accession to NATO and to the European Union, participation in missions abroad and professionalization of the Czech armed forces. The whole process has been facilitated by the acceptance and implementation of a broader concept of security. |
Education in the Field of SecurityInformational pagesIng. Miroslav JurenkaVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 110-114 In the Czech Republic, the schooling of security experts is broken into fragments, i.e. into many fields of study, which go beyond security politics. The state of affairs can't be regarded as satisfactory. The first step is the Resolution of Czech Security Council No. 32/2007, Common Minimum for Security Experts, which put a proposal to introduce security issues into teaching programmes in universities and institutions of further education, so that such institutions could obtain accreditation in this field. This minimum is specified namely for undergraduate study; graduated security studies ought to be more specialized. Political scientists involved in the study of security policy should attempt to devise solutions for problems of public concern. Security study covers issues such as non-military threats and risks, proliferation, pollution, natural disasters, mass migration, economy risks. It is tied with international relations, foreign policy and national security strategies. |
Today's Diverse Army: Changes in the System of Training and Career Preparation of Junior OfficersMilitary artPplk. Ing. Bohuslav Pernica, Ph.D., plk. gšt. Ing. Jaromír Zůna, MSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 43-48 The article elaborates local conditions that lead to the fundamental changes in recruitment and preparation system of new army officers. Traditionally, new career officers used to be graduates from military colleges (since 2004 University of Defence). Due to the changes aroused by the transition from conscription to all volunteer forces, Czech military is experiencing increased internal and external pressures on this traditional models of recruitment and preparation. At present, the most visible outcome of this development is severe shortage of junior officers. The combination of internal and external factors (competitive civilian job market) brings the need for expansion of the traditional recruitment models. One of the most promising ways of manning appears to be recruitment of graduates from civilian universities and their subsequent military training at Military Academy in Vyškov. |
Testing and Validation in VTÚPV Vyškov, VOP-026 Šternberk, s.pMilitary professionalIng. Lubomír PřikrylVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 121-134 The Military Technical Institute of Ground Forces (VTÚPV) Vyškov was established in 1978 as a research authority and its activities have covered both requirements of the Army of the Czech Republic as well as the civilian sector. The VTÚPV Vyškov Division specializes in equipment, material and technologies of the ground forces. It solves tasks ranging from theoretical analyses and applied research and development to the prototype production phase, testing and validation, and small series production. It is an accredited testing laboratory for testing products and systems; it operates as an accredited certifying body for a large number of products. Since 2003 it is a part of the military repair shop VOP-026 Šternberk, s.p. (state enterprise) founded by the Ministry of Defence. The article enumerates its activities, namely just finishing semi-anechoic hall EMC (electromagnetic compatibility), the most important and most expensive investment project since the late 80s. |
Major General in memoriam Bohumil Borecký. During World War I he was taken prisoner in Russia, where he joined the Czech reserve company in Kiev.Personal dataPhDr. Zdeněk VališVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 103-108 As a former Austrian officer he was chosen for recruiting volunteers for the so-called Czech and Slovak Army in Russia. After the WWI he became a member of the newly created Czechoslovak Army. During Nazi occupation of Czech lands, he was arrested for his resistance activities. Fortunately, in prison he suffered from typhoid fever, so he was taken into hospital and therefore he was not executed. When WW II ended, he was falsely accused of leaking important information by military counter-intelligence which was firmly in hands of oncoming communists. After interrogations he was senteced for "active fight against the Bolsheviks" in Russian civil war. The Soviet security authorities deported him together with other condemned persons to Austrinan city Baden and then to the U.S.S.R. At the age of 60 he was sentenced to 25 years of imprisonment. In 1954 he died. After the Velver Revolution he was rehablitaded and promoted to the rank of Major General. |
The Theory of the Culminating Point PartIMilitary artPlk. gšt. Ing. Ján SpišákVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 59-67 This article begins with a theoretical discussion of the culminating point, for both the attack and defence. Key definitions and related concepts provided in Carl von Clausewitz's On War, Joint Publication 3-0, Doctrine for Joint Operations, and U.S. Army Field Manual 100-5, Operations, are discussed in detail. These sources provide many of the factors that can cause a force to reach culmination, and serve as a basis for understanding the difficulties involved in trying to determine the time and place of culmination. Other current factors attributing to culmination are discussed, and recommendations are offered to help operational commanders and planners to zero in on this elusive point. It is of the utmost importance that one's own, and the enemy's culminating point be identified with the highest possible degree of accuracy during the planning phase of a major operation or campaign. |
Ochrana vod v armadach NATO a PfPPlukovník prof. Ing. Aleš Komár, CSc., Ing. Dana PavlíkováVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2003, Vol. XII. (XLIV.): 156-164 |
Terminology Problems and Language Preparation at the University of DefenceLanguage preparationPhDr. Jana Kozílková, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 168-172 This essay presents the development of opinions on the role of language training of students and learners of foreign language (officer candidates) within the development of speech and understanding capabilities in recent years. It analyses the ratio of general and special languages at military system of language preparation. Increased attention is paid to the acquisition of the so-called special competencies. The article also mentions the activities of educators in the field of terminology. The most stimulating and demanding is a stress upon professional communication at magisterial stages of university education. In conclusion, further trends in given areas are emphasized. The article was written to mark 10th anniversary of the first terminology conference in defence sector and joining the Czech Republic into standardization process that took place at Defence University Brno. |
Foreign and Security Policy of the Russian Federation at the End of the First Decade of the XXIst Century and its Anticipated DevelopmentInformational pagesPhDr. Miloš Balabán, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 79-93 The study analyzes the key features of Russian policies in the late 2000s and their prospective developments. It is above all the rise of Russia's economic power, boosted by the favourable rising trend of energy prices (oil and gas) that has helped to resume again the position of one of the key world powers, obsessively pursuing its geopolitical interests in a new emerging multipolar world. This also determines its relations with other major global actors, e.g. the U.S., the EU, and China (outlined in this article). As far as military budget is concerned, it is increasing. Russia has overcome a long period of stagnancy. After 2007, they re-established strategical patrol flights off Russian territory; great effort is aimed at power projection, as a means to secure natural resources beyond Russian boarders. The study is closed by Russia's geopolitical prospects till the year 2020. and its Anticipated Development |
A European Way of "Humane Security"ReviewedIng. Vladimír Karaffa, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 3-10 Many people in the world lead intolerably insecure lives. In many cases insecurity is the consequence of armed conflicts in which civilians are deliberately targeted, sometimes, their insecurity has natural causes, like earthquakes, hurricane, tsunami or disease, they suffer from famine. Security is a broader term, covering not only military threats. Human rather than nation-state security should be at the heart of European policy. Instead of defeating enemies or pacifying warring parties, EU missions should focus on protecting civilians, through law enforcement with the occasional use of force. EU member states ought to support a new framework for the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP). The following seven principles are underlined: (i) the primacy of Human Rights, (ii) clear political authority, (iii) multilateralism, (iv) a bottom-approach, (v) regional focus; (vi) the use of legal instruments, (vii) the appropriate use of force. In fact, underlines Mr. Karaffa, humane security concept forms the very base of common European culture and identity. |
Terminology Used in MoD Department: Oral and Written PracticeOpinions, controversyIng. Vladimír KrulíkVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 86-99 Military professional terminology is a special vocational vocabulary used within armed forces, usually only partially understood by outsiders. The author demonstrates several most notorious examples to draw attention of terminology specialists. They are special vocabularies of military and security affairs, such as human resources, integrated MoD, recruit, recruitment, air wing, air base, strategical/tactical levels, names of organizational military structures, battalion, company, regiment (in fact they differ from nation to nation) task force, defence planning and planning of defence, to name at least a few. In spite of several translated AAP publications, generally, those terms are used in a different way. The author calls for creating more cohesive terminology. He intentionally does not put his own proposals, he only appeals to leading military officials to enforce the unified and accurate military terminology. It is high time to solve this task, namely within the frame of a lifelong education of military personnel. |
The Report on International 3rd CBRN Commandant and Commanders ConferenceMilitary professionalMjr. Ing. Pavel Otřísal, pplk. doc. Ing. Zdeněk Skaličan, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 121-123 In October 2008, under the auspices of the First Deputy Chief of the ACR General Staff Maj.Gen. Josef Prokš and Col. Jiří Gajdoš, Chief of Czech Armed Forces Chemical Corps, 3rd International CBRN Commandant and Commanders Conference took place in Liberec, dealing with the CBRN threats and variants of protection against them. The Conference was organized by Force Development Division-Operations Section Chemical Corps Department in cooperation with Centre of Excellence in Vyškov, 31st CBRN brigade in Liberec, NBC Defence Institute in Vyškov, Centre of Biological Protection at Těchonín, Chemical Corps Department of Joint Forces in Olomouc, Czech NBC Team, and last but not least VOP-026 in Šternberk. The conference was regarded as a meeting of heads of chemical corps both NATO nations and friendly countries. Further information: Pavel.Otrisal@unob.cz. |
1st Part: Topical Problems of Theory and Practice of State Defence Economy Topical Problems of the Theory of Economy of State Defence at the Beginning of the 21st CenturyNonreviewed - ResearchDr. Luboš Štancl, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2006, Vol. XV. (XLVII.): 5-24 The author follows the mainstream economics, i.e. leading economics of defence policy, ranging from economics of defence in the nuclear age, via economics of Iraq conflict, to current fight against terrorism. New paradigm must be drawn, taking into account source management, the distribution of economics weight of individual national economies of all countries participating in the fight against global terrorism. |
Centre of Gravity-the Decisive Operational Concept Part IIMilitary artPlk. gšt. Ing. Ján SpišákVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 36-43 The second part of this short serial deals with the theory of the operational art focusing on the centre of gravity (COG). The article emanates from Carl von Clausewitz's ideas, doctrinal publications analysis and many study projects of the operational art theorists. The author especially aims on disunity and heterogeneity of comprehension of the centre of gravity theory in confrontation of contemporary doctrinal publications and original Clausewitz's theory. He compares operational manuals (those of U.S. and NATO), and finds similarities concerning characteristics, capabilities or localities from which a military force, nation or alliance, derives its freedom of action, physical strength or will to fight. Finally, he himself defines enemy's centre of gravity and highlights coherences that can affect fulfilling political and military objectives in current and future military operations. |
Time to look backNonreviewed - OtherArm. gen v. v. Ing. Karel PezlVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 3-4 There are anniversaries inviting us to stop to think about the last twenty years. In fact, this period covered the same time as the pre-war Republic had been in existence. The occupation Russian army was forced to withdraw, the first security and defence doctrine of the independent Federal Czech and Slovak Republic was implemented, armed forces changed their structures into brigade ones. We took part in the First Gulf, a total of 9,000 ex-career soldiers were legally rehabilitated. The former Czechoslovakia was divided into two republics. There were again and again reductions in numbers, budget cuts. In spite of difficulties, we joined the NATO alliance. Looking back is hindsight saying army bodies proved to be resistant, persistent in overcoming all problems. The article is an instrumental text preceding this theme issue focusing on history analyses of constitution of Czech security and defence after 1989. The author was the last Czechoslovak Chief of General Staff and the first Chief of General Staff of the Czech Republic. |
EUFOR Starts in Africa the Most Demanding Military Operations in EU History (Operation EUFOR Tchad/RCA)Informational pagesPplk. Ing. Jaroslav PrůchaVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 100-107 The situation in Chad, republic in north central Africa, could be characterized by permanent political instability. Its population consists of numerous ethnic groups. Arab peoples are important in the north and east, and black African peoples dominate in the south, estimated population of Chad is nearly 10 million, with 250,000 refugees, 190,000 internally displaced persons, 40,000 persons live in camps. The area of planned operation is three times larger then the area of the Czech Republic. On 25 September 2007, the Security Council, by its resolution 1778, approved the establishment in Chad and the Central African Republic, in concert with the European Union, of a multidimensional presence intended to help create the security conditions conducive to a voluntary, secure and sustainable return of refugees and displaced persons. The multidimensional presence shall include a United Nations Mission in the Central African Republic and Chad (MINURCAT). It is going to be the largest military operation of the EU outside European territory. |
Threat of Extremism from the Point of View of the Czech Armed ForcesMilitary sociologyDoc. JUDr. PhDr. Miroslav Mareš, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 138-151 The paper deals with the assessment of extremism in connection with the Czech Armed Forces. It analyses attitudes of various forms of Czech domestic extremist movements to the military sphere and possible impacts of the infiltration of extremists into the army, namely in time of danger (training militant activities, including paramilitarism, subversion, espionage, etc). The most important problem of the contemporary Czech counter-extremist policy in this area is the rise of neo-Nazi activities in the armed forces and the establishing of extreme right paramilitary units which take interest in the engagement of soldiers. Even though these activities are limited in our country, the author offers overall survey various obscure organizations, having connections to foreign groups sponsoring their Czech counterparts. |
Operation EUFOR RD CONGO (Preparation, Planning, and Forming Forces for Operation)Military artPplk. Ing. Jaroslav KulíšekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 35-56 This article covers the EUFOR RD Congo operation preparation phase and provides information on Military Strategic Planning Process, Military Operational Planning, Collaborative Planning, EU OHQ Potsdam activation and Force Generation Process. It describes planning period to highlight a pivotal role of training and education. Operation EUFOR RD CONGO was the EU second military intervention in the RDC, following Operation Artemis in 2003. The EUFOR RD CONGO mission was to support MONUC during running election process, in accordance with the UN Security Council Resolution 1671, authorizing the temporary deployment of an EU force in the RDC. The views expressed in this assessment are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of EU Military Structure or the Czech MoD. All information and data for this paper were drawn from unclassified sources. |
Life Cycle of ACR Base in Missions AbroadMilitary artMjr. Ing. Eva Zezulová, Ph.D., mjr. Ing. Jiří Štoller, Ph.D., pplk. doc. Ing. Pavel Maňas, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 107-113 The article is focused on the Czech military bases during mission abroad and introduces new term "Life Cycle of Military Base". Every system has its own successive stages through which it passes; concept that compares the cyclical nature of organizations, systems, is called life cycle. The Reach-Back concept divides lifetime of the military base into seven phases: Assignment (task, goals), Preparation, Proposal (draft), Designing, Building, Running and Cancelling. The definition and description of all phases of the Life Cycle of Military Bases is an important contribution to solving series of problems connected with designing, building, running and cancelling of military bases during mission abroad. Dividing into separate sections contributes to the well-mastered supervision of base, as it indicates factual structures of individual stages of daily routine of the base and thus it lowers the risks of neglecting some activities. |
Financial Management of DoD (Reality without False Statements)Opinions, controversyIng. Jiří DušekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2006, Vol. XV. (XLVII.): 67-73 This piece of writing is a polemic with the article by Maj. Pernica "System of Planning, Programming, Budgeting (and Flogging a Dead Horse)? in Vojenské rozhledy 4/2005. Allegedly, the criticized article quoted some misleading statements, based on financial records, inappropriate for this purpose. Ing. Dušek does not agree with its general idea, introduced out of contexts. The Planning, Programming and Budgeting System was introduced by leading economy experts (e.g. university professor Mr. Ochrana, School of Economy, Prague). Some deficiencies and shortages are inevitable, but as a whole, the PPB system works. Statistics is a dynamic science and statistical data are to be judged only in connection with statistical methods used in years in concern. For example, in answering the Defence Planning Questionnaire, we were asked by NATO authorities to transfer entries for leasing Grippen aircrafts from modernization and development items to the operational item. Consequently, the percentage of investment purchases decreased. The same goes for the percentages of National Gross Domestic Product spent for military budget, and so on. Moreover, MoD financial department put several useful proposals how to make financial flows more clear, but the were refused by the government. |
Some Aspects of Command and Control of Bde TFin NEC SurroundingsMilitary artPplk. Ing. Jiří Černý, doc. Ing. Vítězslav Stodůlka, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 44-51 This article deals with the present state of command and control dilemma in brigade battle groups. It outlines the resources of the rationalization of organizational structures at HQs and it shows their impact on modular design of the command posts. The gradual introduction of NATO Network Enabled Capability (NEC) into Czech armed forces (Bde TF-Brigade Task Force), requires first, changes in the structure of individual components of command and control system; secondly, initiating basic changes oriented towards optimalization command and control structures; third, the preparation of commanders and staffs in the field of information technology, so that they could achieve knowledge and control dominance. At the same time organizational changes raise modification within command chains of separate groups. |
Europe and Radical Islam: Islamisation of EuropeInformational pagesPavel KrčílekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 68-80 The major topic of this article is the problem of radical Islam in the context of contemporary as well as historical development in Europe. In the course of several chapters the author describes basic facts of the modern phenomenon of Islamisation, impending over Europe. His study is supported from several sources, e.g. Gadhafi M., Islam taking over Europe (2006); or reports issued by the Netherlands Security and Intelligence Service (2005); Swiss Country Report on Islamisation (2007), etc. There are over 50 million Muslims in Europe, if Turkey is added to the EU, Europe will have another 50 million Muslims. When terrorism can be considered as a danger, Islam should be considered as a risk to generate such a danger. The democratic state is fully entitled to diagnose any kind of "side effects" as a result of Islamic preaching. This is not judging the religion but its effects on the system. The solution is long-lasting: to support cultural integration, because only a few European Muslims are involved politically, or take part in terrorist attacks. |
Jak je to s vojenskou vedou ...Prof. Ing. Karel Novotný, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2005, Vol. XIV. (XLVI.): 5-32 |
Ochrana vojsk a obyvatelstva, ekonomiky a uzemi statuProf. Ing. Karel Novotný, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/1997, Vol. VI. (XXXVIII.): 54-66 |
Cataclysm Scenario 2050-Imagining the UnthinkableNonreviewed - OtherProf. Ing. Josef Říha, DrSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 3-10 The purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable of the worst case scenario for the global future post-modern society. The analysis addresses the main features of global risk society, human suffering, and loss of life from natural catastrophes, man-made catastrophes, economic losses, peak-oilcrises impacts, threat of terrorism, radical Islam, fragile states, etc. Important are the consequences of the end of the Vestfal system and global climate change. There is substantial evidence to indicate that significant global warming will occur during the 21st century. The research suggests that once temperature rises above some threshold, adverse weather conditions could develop relatively abruptly. Drought persists for most of the decade in critical agricultural regions and in the water resource regions for major population centres in Europe. As fertility shrivels, societies get older-and much of Europe are set to get older than any functioning societies have ever been. To avoid collapse, European nations will need to take immigrants at a rate no stable society ever attempted. Europe will be significantly more Islamic. |

