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This article describes the basic terms used in prognostics (future studies, forecasting the future, prognosis, prediction, expert) and introduces selected prognostic methods and techniques which could be applied in security area (brainstorming, focus group, trend extrapolation, Delphi method, scenarios etc.). The basic classifications and prognosis typologies are mentioned as well. Particular phases of prognosis making are described too. For the Czech security community the prognosis making has an important potential whose outcomes (of particular surveys) should be manifest in following years. This text has only tried to outline selected methods and techniques for their potential application.

The aim of the article is to compare the term and definition of "Intelligence Support" used in the Czech Armed Forces with related terms used in the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, United States Army and Slowak Ground Forces. The article proposes updated Czech terms and definitions. The article can serve as a basis for a next discussion, for a dictionary processing, it will help intelligence staffs in orientation in intelligence terminology and it improves interoperability within the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and in foreign missions.

The contemporaneous security environment is more diverse, dynamic, interconnected and far less predictable than ever. As the major Western militaries undergo continuous changes in missions and tasks, as well as in the form of their organisations, the warfighting abilities of military leaders are not the only ones required. Transformational military leadership, with leaders operating from the post-conventional level of developmental action-logic, arguably become one of the most needed capacities of a military organisation. This type of leadership has to be capable of initiating and leading transformational changes, needed to respond adequately and adaptively to contemporaneous and future security challenges. This article analyses the applicability of transformational leadership to military organisations using the developmental theory and the concept of vertical leadership development as a framework.

The article deals with a strategic document that currently represents understanding of trends, which form the future security and operational environment,and that sets up the vectors for building-up and development of the Armed Forces of the Czech Republic. The first aim is to assess the Long Term Perspective for Defence 2030 and its significance in context of other strategic documents adopted in the Czech Republic. Another aim is to confront its contents with a structured analysis of large quantity of the state-of-the-art foresight studies,differentiated in geographical and thematic scope. The comparison allows identifying convergence and divergence between the Czech document and relevant findings from the foreign foresight documents. This approach enables the judgement whether the Long Term Perspective for Defence 2030 provides a relevant guideline for the defence sector development, and whether it does or does not miss some of the issues found significant in the foresight documents in the outer world.

The global security environment brings forward different and surprising challenges for the armed forces, which require a good training and preparation. One way of sorting out the endeavour is using scenarios, the concept used extensively in the military field, the military field being the initiator of this concept. Military scenario development is the subject of this article, which is going to bring some essential characteristics and propose a working option for elaborating a scenario. The final aim is to help military planners have a good working procedure when developing a scenario in order to create a document updated with warfare evolution and operational planning process ready to respond to all risks and threats. The scenario is a way used by military structures at all levels of military art (strategical, operational and tactical) to get in contact with a probable unknown situation, to assimilate it and to sort it out. The article focuses on the scenario development process and proposes stages and activities that should be followed by a joint operational group when tasked with preparing a scenario.

This article deals with challenges for the defence policy and strategy of the Czech Republic and their further adaptation and. It outlines set of recommendations for ensuring its armed forces relevance and their long term sustainability. The article reflects debate during the international conference Defence and Strategy organised by the Centre of Security and Military Strategic Studies of the Defence University and held on 15-16 June 2015 in Brno.

The retraining courses of the Ministry of Defence aim to prepare soldiers for the civilian environment and to enable them to acquire the knowledge and skills that are applicable in the labour market. In the years 2008-2017 11 605 soldiers of the Czech Armed Forces terminated their service. The application for retraining was submitted by 3 644 persons, of whom 2 769 were retrained. The prevalence of retraining is in technical professions (1 342 persons) and in managerial and business training (832 persons). The research question and the statistical evaluation of the data obtained confirms the hypothesis that most soldiers were not retrained. The results of sociological research carried out among 313 former soldiers of the Czech Armed Forces show that more than three fifths of soldiers did not apply for retraining (64%), especially among higher positions and college graduates, because of no information about the data of termination of service (25%), no need for retraining (20 %) and not completing the retraining course (30 %) mostly because of the refusal of the superiors. The shortcomings of the retraining system of professional soldiers are summarized.

This concept has been preparing since the early 2009. In short, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation must be increasingly prepared to intervene far beyond its borders. In the coming decade, NATO will have four central inter-related military missions. The first requirement is to "deter, prevent and defend" against aggression, so as to ensure the political independence and territorial integrity of NATO member states. The report insists on the need to send out military missions beyond the treaty area "when required to prevent an attack on the treaty area or to protect the legal rights and other vital interests of Alliance members". Any expeditionary mission must be based on the principles of the UN charter. Another key item is to cooperate better with those partners, and others worldwide, in order to tackle the new threats posed by cyber attacks, piracy, arms proliferation and energy supply insecurity and climate change. However, in order to achieve the new goals, NATO "must halt the precipitous decline in national defence spending", and to introduce reforms to make spending more efficient.

The aim of the article is to recall the thoughts of war strategists on how to conduct military operations during the Cold War and to present the issue of operational maneuvering groups. Their use was a new conceptual framework of offensive operations led by the highly mobile military units of the Warsaw Pact in the 1970s and 1980s. Based on the analysis and comparison of historical sources, a set of information and knowledge from the field of military art is presented here as well as a more comprehensive view on the tactical, operational and strategic context of the offensive operations on the European battlefield. Their impacts were also essential in the way of training of troops and education of military officers in the former regime.

The article discusses the history and present state of instruction in the Arabic language in the Armed Forces of the United States and the United Kingdom within the context of their engagement in the Middle East. The analysis of the evolution of institutions tasked with Arabic language instruction since the end of the World War II mainly addresses the issues of fast language-capacity building and the cooperation between the Armed Forces and the academic sector. The main issue in state-organized instruction in non-standard languages is a discrepancy between the required long-term nature of building of linguistic capacities and an immediate need of states addressing new regional challenges requiring a specific knowledge of new languages.

The article is focused on operations of autonomous artillery weapon systems and possible requirements on survey units and their equipment. In the light of perspective purchase of artillery weapon systems it is necessary to analyze the character of operations of these systems and determine requirements on preparation of position areas. Goal of this article is to describe the character of autonomous artillery weapon systems operations in terms of functionality of individual components of navigation unit and based on this to set the requirements on survey units equipment. As the main method authors used method of scenarios where were as a scenarios determined individual variants of navigation system functionallity. Output of this article is determination of requirements on survey units equpment used for geting information about position coordinates and directions.

The article deals with the applicability of professional soldiers in the labour market after the termination of military service. Its aim is to outline the information about the unemployment of former soldiers and to present the main results of sociological research, which was held among 313 former members of the Czech Armed Forces. Based on the processing of statistics of the Labour Office of the Czech Republic, it was found out that on average 18% of former soldiers of productive age were 8 months without employment during 2008 - 2017. With the help of a questionnaire survey, it was found out that more than a fifth of the respondents were looking for an employment in the civilian sector for more than half a year. The majority of respondents do not perceive the system of preparation for a second career of soldiers as elaborate. They state that the issue of second career was not addressed during their military service. There are possible recommendations for improving the current state of integration of soldiers into the labour market at the end of the article.

The article thematically completes a series of articles which subject was to present outcomes of analyses focused on national as well as NATO and EU capability planning processes. Synthesis of analysis outcomes resulted in conceiving a methodologic framework for military capability assessment, whereas the first phase of this framework, i.e. configuration of the national capability requirements database, has been already described in the previous edition of the Czech Military Review. So this article details final phases of the proposed methodological framework, which are set of reference units and mechanism for matching capability requirements against current state capabilities. The key outcome of capability matching phase is identification of capability shortfalls and their subsequent prioritisation. The level of priority is expressed as a degree of operational risk and relates to an expected intensity of operational engagement of force units in military operations. This approach stems from the principle of the capability assessment process which shall be carried out by military experts and which deals exclusively with an expected military end-state in operations.

The paper deals with the professional development of cyber security corps. In the introduction the individual elements that are active in cyber security are described. Strategic analysis of the education is carried out to define the initial state. The main part of the paper is devoted to the design of the education system. The individual elements are defined in the paper, and the model of relationships between these elements is shaped. The attachment contains complete set of topics and their classification into the strands to fulfil the profile of the cyber security expert.

The career education of the Ministry of Defence (MoD) personnel is a key component to meet requirements for qualifications. As these requirements are career growth conditions for career personnel, they are inherently connected with further promotion in rank. During the process of preparation of the career courses it was revealed that some system changes should be made due to implemented or planned changes within the legislative and source framework of the Ministry of Defence. This article describes the implementation process of a new policy for training personnel in the career courses. It was prepared by a project team headed by the Centre for Security and Military Strategic Studies at the Defence University. Furthermore, the article deals with the clarification of the approach to the development of educational documentation and the chosen form of organization and conduction of military career courses. Also, a quality control system and a collection of information needed for upgrading of the senior officers career education curricula are described.

The Czech Armed Forces' professionalization is an underlying qualitative change and its realization is not without risks. This paper outlines the political origin of this phenomenon, characterises the coherence with the transformation of the Alliance and illustrates overseas experience with some recruitment problems, namely the NCOs, the limits of women in the armed forces, the role of voluntary reserve force, and the substantiations for compulsory military service generally. The purpose of this essay is to draw attention to less known pitfalls of this process, with wide connexions, going beyond regular professionalization frames, defined as a task carried out by the military personnel department.

This article deals with one of the approaches to command - Mission Command - which can be seen as a dominant command philosophy in NATO nations and especially in the United States. This approach is considered as a very important in terms of possible responses to the challenges having impact on current and future security environment. Respective parts of this article describe the military causes and related historical consequences based on which the mentioned command philosophy had been constructed. The relevant parts describe basic principles of Auftragstaktik, developed and implemented by Prussian and later on by German military leaders which aim is to emphasize centralized intent and dispersed execution through disciplined initiative.

Since the 1st release of an internal ministerial norm guiding planning processes of activities and development within the Czech Ministry of Defence (MOD) presuming existence of Capability Planning Methodology, this document has not been established. This article offers selected theoretical starting points and, on their basis, it outlines possible a ministerial process tree focused on the capability process as a ground for its definition within Czech MOD conditions. Further in a framework of an added value model proposes possible internal structure of above mentioned process down to sub-processes level with justification of their purpose and mutual links. Formulating mentioned attributes of the capability planning process this article makes a contribution to set up this process within the Czech MOD.

The article deals with the evaluation of the state of oil security in the Czech Republic and measures, which should be taken to increase it. The attention is payed to the importance of the crude oil in the energy mix of the Czech Republic, its oil dependency and international cooperation in the area of oil security. Further, it focuses on the emergency stocks of the crude oil and petroleum products and to their use and to the oil demand restraint measures.

The article describes an approach to development of a national military capability requirements database and its relationship with reference units which will be finally used for assessing capabilities of existing force units. Outcomes from recently completed analyses lead to the conclusion that the single set of capability requirements as specified in the Bi-SC Agreed Capability Codes and Capability Statements, can be taken as a key stone for developing a national database of capability requirements. A due adaptation of this document to the Czech MOD allows getting a complex frame of capabilities which force units shall manage to achieve given operational tasks both in the context of a national or multinational task force group. Consequently such a database can be exploited for setting up a mechanism for capability assessment.

The authors present the results of the research on the Lessons Learned process applied within the Ministry of Defence of the Czech Republic. The main purpose of the article is to introduce the proposal of the process optimization to readers. The paper describes the process in detail, and this description is used to identify procedural shortcomings exploiting the process analysis method in terms of factual and logical accuracy of the process. The following part of the article presents the results of the comparative analysis of the chosen Lessons Learned processes. The result of the comparative analysis allows authors to make in an innovative way suitable recommendations for optimizing the current state of the whole process of Lessons Learned. Based on the analysis of the educational programs, the paper proposes to include the subject of the Lessons Learned process into the learning outcomes, especially from the perspective of competency based approach to education.

The paper deals with the process of radicalization in the armed forces in Central Europe, with specific focus on the Czech Armed Forces and the Bundeswehr. The author conceptualizes radicalization as a recent security threat and explains the specifics of the use of this concept in the armed forces. The most important historical legacies are identified and the current development cases and trends are analyzed and compared, including the specifics of various streams of extremism. Possible recommendations how to counter radicalization are included in the paper.

The aim of the article is to bring out results of the comparative analysis of NATO and EU defence planning processes. The comparative analysis was focused on identification of those findings which are identical for both NATO and the EU and which might be also beneficial for optimising the national defence planning process within the Czech Ministry of Defence. From this perspective, the key analysis outcome is identification of similar phases which were found out while comparing respective NATO´s and EU´s planning tools, i.e. J-DARTS and SAEP Process. Even if NATO and the EU are using a different terminology and different approaches to achieve expected results, the substance of respective phases is almost identical. A course of action how to implement the analysis outcomes into the national defence planning process might be the subject of a follow on research.

The article deals with the use and future prospects of the international cooperation for the development some of Czech Armed Forces capabilities in the field of military medicine. It has no ambition to address this issue in its entirety, but only contains an analysis of some of the current formats and initiatives of international cooperation in the field of military medicine, with the justification of their origins and a brief evaluation of their contribution. Part of the article is also a proposal for possible measures to improve the development of medical capabilities in the framework of international cooperation.

Participation of experts form NATO member and partner countries in security situation development trends together with related military implications is meanwhile the newest mean of member states engagement onto NATO Defence Planning. In one hand this possibility is a way to gain findings from national experts and in other hand an opportunity enabling countries to enlarge knowledge and experience of national participants in order to development of similar activities at national level. Moreover there is an opportunity to present activities of nations´ institutions working in the similar field as well as national findings linked to security trends and defence planning. The author concludes that the Czech Republic has not yet formulated its own defence planning process, and suggests the possible effects of this condition

Implementation of project management is a step by which the organization declares that it wants to offer unique products in the appropriate quality. Just as a newly implemented process to an organization is not always perfect and needs to be constantly improved. Consequently, the project management implemented in the organization needs to be improved. The article presents the main problems identified by the members of the project management courses, which took place at the University of Defense in Brno in period 2011 - 2018. The authors of the article, based on the analysis of the findings, concluded that problems identified in the Ministry of Defence of the Czech Republic are solvable and present possible approaches to the solution.

The research described in this paper was conducted in the framework of institutional research project Strategic Alternatives (STRATAL) within the Centre for Security and Military Strategic Studies of University of Defence, The Czech Republic. Article assesses the development of Czech Defence policy in 2017 and first half of 2018. Authors analyse key change drivers in external environment (security threats, EU strategic autonomy, transatlantic link). In second step authors evaluate measures taken in political, military, administrative, economical and societal domain in response to key change drivers and highlight related risks to effective defence policy formulation and implementation.

The research described in this paper was conducted in the framework of institutional research project Strategic Alternatives (STRATAL) within the Centre for Security and Military Strategic Studies of University of Defence in Brno, the Czech Republic. The main objective of this contribution is to assess the evolution of the Czech defence policy (CDP) since the last summer 2016. The main impetuses for the CDP evolution were provided by the NATO Summit in Warsaw, new European Global Strategy including the ambition to enhance defence cooperation among the EU member states and the pattern of dynamics in our security environment. The authors analysed the key change drivers (KCDs) and measures taken in political, military, administrative, economical and societal domain in order to evaluate the overall effectiveness of the defence policy. Finally, the authors offer several recommendations to enhance the responsiveness and preparedness of the Czech defence system and the Armed Forces both in short- and long-term time span.