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The Debate on Compulsory Military Service Keeps Going (at least in German-speaking countries)Military professionalPplk. Ing. Bohuslav Pernica, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 145-147 After the end of Cold War, all Europe abandons the system of obligatory conscription in time of peace. Advancing European integration changes the configuration of threats, which is reflected in changed structure of armed forces. As Charles de Gaulle said in 1934 (which is also the motto of German book Wehrpflicht oder Freiwilligenarmee? Wehrstrukturentscheidungen im europäischen Vergleich, 2006): "We should not maintain an army we are used to, but we should build the army we really need." They are the structural changes in defence sector that could provide necessary means for common security and defence policy in being. The supporters of professional/obligatory military service differ according to their political beliefs. Surprisingly, in Germany, liberal, green or communist oriented parties prefer voluntary/ professional military service. The same discussions took place in our country after 1990. |
The Hazard of Humane Capital Losses during the Transformation of our Security System: An Example of Czech Intelligence ServicesOpinions, controversyMjr. Ing. Bohuslav Pernica, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 64-67 Among others, the transformation of an institution is determined by its human capital. Gains and losses of this transformation depend on the acceptation of organisational changes in the institution by its employees, working staffs that behave above all economically (expediency). The salary and benefit system, compensation packages, play a key role in transformation. The underestimation of this role could precipitate the situation that employees simply quit the institution, and thus endanger the whole process of transformation. The state of affairs in Czech Intelligence Services proves this author's view. Its adaptability is lowered, there is a danger the system will become less effective in key domains of their activities. |
Wars of the New Millennium (Informative Review)Book reviewPhDr. A. RašekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 141-142 The Slovak author Štefan Volner wrote a book called The Wars of the 21st Century (Zvolen 2007). After the break-up of common Czechoslovak state we promised each other that the relations between Czechs and Slovaks will not change, but after fifteen years we see that we are really departed, when speaking about Slovak home policy, about Slovak security questions, its army. Štefan Volner who often publishes in the review Vojenské rozhledy helps to cover this gap and thus our military public can follow his scholarly works dealing with security and defence. In reviewed book he enumerates the causes of 21st century wars and analyses four basic paradigms: civilizational; Toffler's third wave; realistic approach; and finally thermodynamics, dealing with non-linear causes of war. Asymmetric wars came into existence as the roots of wars are asymmetric. It is not difficult to win the war, but more difficult is to guarantee post-war reconstruction. |
Forming Security Culture of the European Union (European Security Strategy)Reviewed - ResearchDoc. PhDr. Jan Eichler, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 22-36 The Document ESS 2003 laid down foundations of our present-day security and strategy culture. It was formed as a summary of several historical and political factors that are introduced in two starting chapters, followed by the more detailed analysis into ESS 2003, its main characteristics influencing EU security and strategic culture. The ESS 2003 is compared with the American doctrinal document NSS 2002. The European security strategy of 2003 is not compared with following American strategical documents, as they were unknown in time of its drafting. The author comes into the conclusion that in spite of indisputable differences, the EU shares the same values as the US, and the EU as an American strategical ally is facing the same threats and challenges as the US does, and in case of need, there is a possibility of combined military actions. |
The Security System of the CR and the Necessity of its Adaptation to Cumulative Effects of ThreatsReviewed - ReviewPhDr. Libor StejskalVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 37-47 The term of "growing complex of threats" covers higher and higher probability of concatenation of various intercommoned, mutually tied factors reflecting structured technological and informational reality of global society, making their solving by traditional means of security system extremely difficult. "Crisis situation" represents more general problem of natural disasters or technology breakdowns that are influencing one another, that cause great distress or destruction, in an unexpected manner, activating subsequent threats of so far unforeseen threats. For that reason we must adapt Czech security system to new liquid, instant and indivisible complex threats. |
WikiLeaks Case and Its Reflections in World's Security CommunityInformational pagesPhDr. Antonín RAŠEKVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 129-137 Czech dailies and weeklies publicised their analyses of the diplomatic dispatches released by WikiLeaks. Some were concerned in world's politics, but higher attention was paid to 1,271 dispatches from Prague. According to the dispatches, the U.S. Navy wanted to purchase 23 Russian anti-ship missiles to obtain the weapons from Belarus through Ukraine, with a Czech arms dealer. However, the Czech government decided to derail the plan by not granting the Czech middleman the needed permission to export weapons from a dictatorship like Belarus. Various cables also detailed a dispute in the area of arms technology. Some observations from the dispatches dealing with characteristics of Czech prominent politicians are amusing. Overall, the United States evaluated the CzechRepublic positively, as an economically mature country and as an ally. |
The Operational Preparation of State Territory and a New System of Railroad Structure ReconstructionMilitary professionalIng. Jan Englich, doc. Ing. Radovan Soušek, Ph.D., Ing. Jan Strbačka, CSc., Ing. Pavel ViskupVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 145-159 The paper offers new looks at the system of railroad reconstruction in crisis and emergency situations. It originates from The Operational Plan of State Territory Preparation that is implemented in harmony with The Plan of Technology Protection of Railroad. This article is a free sequel to information published in this Military Revue No. 4/2005 dealing with drafting the plan of railroad technology protection. The authors´ main purpose is to give readers basic knowledge on key changes in railroad security system and main security measurements till 2013. The protection system is intended to be more flexible and economic. |
Main Principles of International Humanitarian LawMilitary lawRNDr. Marek Jukl, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 178-184 Contemporary International Humanitarian Law (IHL) is the law of armed conflict or law of war and their effects. The goal of IHL is to limit the effects of warfare on people and property and to protect particularly vulnerable persons. The IHL does not exclude war activities as it acknowledges the principle of the so-called war necessity. Humanitarian law is the branch of public international law that comprises the rules, which, in times of armed conflict, seek to protect persons who are not or are no longer taking part in the hostilities, restrict the methods and means of warfare employed, and resolve matters of humanitarian concern resulting from war. This article is intended to help to soldiers to understand better IHL rules and principles. |
New Approaches to Long-term Defence Planning: Scenarios and Operational Concepts in the Future Security EnvironmentReviewed - ReviewIng. Vlastimil Galatík, CSc., pplk. gšt. Ing. Ivo Pikner, Ph.D., pplk. Ing. Miroslav KrčmářVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 23-28 The article explains defence planning of armed forces deployment that ought to by the base for all long haul visions and concept texts for army development and its operational employment. Operational scenarios and concepts form together key elements of defence planning process, both factors enable to military organizations not only to identify future security challenges but also to react to challenges in being. It is not contrary to the so-called capability planning process as this is a manly armed force potential backing our ability to face threads and risks in the future. The example of the United States involved in three asymmetric conflicts is a warning example showing the necessity of the complex and coordinated strategical approaches. |
Command and Control as an Important Part of Military Science (Getting on for Information Age)Reviewed - ReviewIng. Petr Ryp, plk. Ing. Robert BielenýVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 29-33 The specification of terminology related to terms command and control (C2) is quite important for further scholarly examination of military science. The command and control area is nowadays under the constant impact of the influx of information technology, as well as it is affected by the changes in the contemporary security environment. This article is dedicated to the military, its history, and its contributions to current military operations. It provides an attempt to specify terms "command and control" in both general and military levels. Finally, it provides clarification of the terminology within command and control systems, as their terminology has been changing. In a simple way, the C2 could be characterized as the execution of authority by the commander, via communication and information systems, with the use of current standard operational procedures, under present laws and rules, to act in the interest of forces to meet assigned orders and intentions. |
Present-day Notions on Military DeceptionsMilitary artDoc. Ing. Milan Kubeša, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 60-65 In the previous Military Review we introduced the article "Will Military Deception Pass Away?" by the same author. In the Army of the Czech Republic we have no manual dealing with military deception (MILDEC). The only manual concerning MILDEC was abolished without any substitute. But military art can't be further developed without similar documents. Today we take MILDEC as a complex set of provisions misleading enemy's commanders and staff, by means of false information and counterfeit data that deliberately deceive adversary decision-makers and planners. Use of MILDEC during any phase of an operation also helps to mislead adversaries as to the strength, readiness, locations, and intended missions of friendly forces. The MILDEC could contribute to the successful accomplishment of the assigned mission by many ways. |
The Czech Fiscal Policy for Internal and External Security after 1998Opinions, controversyPodplukovník Ing. Bohuslav Pernica, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 66-75 When the Czech Republic joined NATO, some structural changes in the national security sector were expected. Actually, changes in national defence strategy were declared by national strategic documents, such as military and security strategies. In addition to it, since 2002 the Czech Republic has been taking part in Global War on Terrorism and, generally speaking, it implies higher expenditures spent on security purposes. Surprisingly, many things have remained the same. The strategic documents were mostly ignored, deep changes did not happen due to fiscal policy based on a traditional incremental budgeting. Proportions between expenditures for internal and external security were only fluctuating. |
Does China Conquer Also Europe? (Reflections over Security Analyses and Prognoses)Informational pagesPhDr. Miloš Balabán, Ph.D., PhDr.Antonín RašekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 94-102 The gravity of this article is laid down on the present-day state of affairs. China bought Spanish, Portuguese, and Greek obligations, i.e. China lent a hand to those countries (so did the European Union). In this way, China increased its influence in Europe. Stabilized Europe is necessary for Chinese export, it was not mere charity. Defence expenditures of People's China has reached 100 billions USED a year. Supposing the Chinese are intended to reach world's domination, they should stick to this kind of policy and they should not try to acquire the dominance by armed force. China behaves like an asymmetric power, knowing well that it can't surpass the U.S. by arms. China does not want to repent Russian mistake to be "over-armed" by America in futile arms race. Still, there is plenty of free space to compete with the U.S., e.g. cosmic or space competition, computer and Internet technologies. |
The Various Ways of Civil-Military Development (Concepts and Doctrines)ReviewedIng. Pavel Zona, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 20-29 With the running changes in methods of modern operations within NATO framework, there are also changes in demands and tasks in the scope of civil-military operations-CIMIC. They are incorporated in many documents, such as the Comprehensive Political Guidance, New Concept of Civil-Military Cooperation or Field Manual 3-07 Stability Operations. The CIMIC capacities ought to be used for active impact on impending security situation, crisis development, impact implemented more sooner then crises might escalate to conflicts, eventually they could be used to halt the conflicts, in the places where they are a threat to Alliance security. We must create new rules of co-operations between civil and military sections, with the use of Alliance materials, resources and documents from conferences, seminars and field working shops. Today we have also abundant experiences that the Army of the Czech Republic, its CIMIC section, have acquired in preceding ten years. |
New Global and Regional Actors and World and European SecurityReviewedPhDr. Miloš Balabán, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 30-37 Taking into account the prepared 2011 Security Strategy and the White Paper on Defence in our country, due attention ought to be paid to political ambitions and economy influence of emerging actors, both world and regional. In ten or twenty years to come we shall face basic transformation of international system. Today, there are four main global power centres: North America (United States, Canada), the European Union, China and Japan. The author of this study concentrates predominantly on their economy strength that is also a base of all sources spent on armed forces. Among emerging powers belongs above all India, regional power in South Asia, Brazil in Latin America, followed by Indonesia, Turkey, and Mexico. They together cover 52 per cent of word's economy production. Different interests give rise to various disputes, but they are able to act cohesively against e.g. decisions by G-20. Among other's the article is accompanied by the table comparing military powers of the USA and Russia. |
The Lines of Operation Concept (Part II)Military artIng. Ján SpišákVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 53-64 The fundamentals of this concept, as they were explained in previous Military Review No 1, 2011, have stayed unchanged, up to the present. There still exist operational bases, directions, courses, lines, upon which military convoys transfer by the plan or in disorderly manner. Such picture corresponds to linear wars of first, second and third generations. The wars of fourth generation are characterized by the speed and initiative. The frontiers between war and politics are blurred, so are between civilians and combatants. They are mostly wars with and among non-state actors, counter-insurgency operations (COIN) Based on doctrinal analysis; author describes concepts philosophy in functional and logical aspects. This might help the commander and staff to visualize the arrangement of military capabilities in time, space, and purpose to accomplish the mission. The concept might be successfully applied in connection with stability and COIN operations. |
The Comprehensive Operations Planning Directive (COPD): Revised InstructionMilitary artVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 65-68 All-inclusive attitude of NATO forces assumes that conflict can't be solved only by military means. This shift from purely soldierly level to political brought around numbers of Alliance activities at Strategical and Operational Commands. The common denominator was the philosophy of complex approach in operational thinking, planning, and implementing NATO activities. As a result the operational SACEUR's directive GOP was substituted by its revised successor-the so-called Comprehensive Operations Planning Directive (COPD). It is going to be introduced in 2011 and will influence groups and military persons at all levels of warfare, dealing with operational planning and operational art for art's sake. The article familiarizes readers with this directive (COPD) as a tool for comprehensive approach to operations. The COPD offers more deliberate and inclusive planning procedures that allow for both military and non-military actors broader understanding of operational environment and better cooperation in their common effort. |
Tactical CommunicationsMilitary professionalPodplukovník Ing. Lubomír StřídaVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 164-169 Communications in which information of any kind, especially orders and decisions, are conveyed from one command, person, or place to another, are basic feature of all civilian organizations, namely as far as managerial work is concerned. In military, they are used within the armed forces, usually by means of electronic equipment, including communications security equipment, organic to the tactical forces. They are implemented in integrated surrounding NEC (Network Enabled Capability) by means of widening and updating field communication system of the AČR. NEC together with other key operational capacities will enable to change information power into higher operational effectivity and strength of Czech armed forces. |
Chapters on Security for the Second Time (Prognosis of World's Development)Book reviewVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 184-185 International situation lies still in the middle of our attention. Public is still interested in current security situation. The publications dealing with security threats are sold out, that's why the Karolinum Publishing House issued the second edition of this reviewed book, Chapters on Security. Nineteen security analysts amended and brought up to date their original papers; the book was enlarged by fifty pages. The monograph covers both inner politics and international organizations. Inseparable are prediction of world's development till the year 2020. The book is also involved with the so-called humane security and the system of complex security control in the Czech Republic. |
New Defence Capabilities for New NATO Missions (Lisbon 2010)Pplk. Ing. Ivo Pikner, Ph.D., pplk. Ing. Miroslav Krčmář, doc. Ing. Milan Kubeša, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 3-8 Article deals with new insights into the Alliance missions for the upcoming period of five to ten years that are to be conditioned by achieving higher level of future military capabilities for provision of defence and security within the Alliance and its Partners. Some initiatives are described that are needed to be implemented to achieve the required capabilities and also necessary resources and process measures imposed to the Alliance member states and the Alliance as a whole are indicated. The new Strategic Concept aims to define NATO as a modernized Alliance and a cooperative team player in a globalized world. It gives a comprehensive framework for preserving the core ideals of NATO while transforming it into a dynamic Alliance capable of confronting the unconventional and unpredictable threats that define today's international security environment. The article refers to the ideas and thoughts mentioned in a study of the US NDU's Center for Technology and National Security Policy. |
Civil-Military Reflections: Does the Army Need Its Own Value Code? (Military Culture, Professionalism, and Constabulary Force)Informational pagesMgr. Tomáš KučeraVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 71-82 Relations between a military and a civilian society belong to the core issue of civil-military studies. This article reflects main ideas and concepts used in theoretical and analytical literature, including seminar works by Samuel Huntington and Morris Janowitz. A military culture, military ethics and influence of new technologies, full-volunteer army and new missions on military culture are discussed. An abstract term "military" can change very significantly in accordance with actual military culture, perceptible to the fact how civilian society accepts military values. Therefore, not only size and equipment determine how particular armed forces look like. The author introduces the term Constabulary Force reflecting the idea that primary purpose of forces today are low-intensity conflicts and operations other than war. |
The Creation of Lowest Army Rank CorpsMilitary professionalPodplukovník Ing. Bohuslav Pernica, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 114-118 Army personnel are ranked according to level, from the lowest (privates, sergeants, WOs) to the highest (officers, generals). A total of 80 per cent of professional soldiers, in lowest ranks, are hired at labour market. They form the core of our military personnel, so that they have to be properly taken care of. But in ours, we have still the mentality of mass armies of cold-war period. There have been professional armed forces in the Czech Republic for more than five years, nevertheless the question how to build up the other rank corps is still opened. This article deals with this problem and the method how to cope with the need to form more professionalized NCOs. Broadly speaking, it is the question of the quality overpassing the quantity. Author insists that the British model of NCO's career path should be easily applied into the Czech Armed Forces to get rid of the obsolete recruiting related more to a model of conscription forces. |
The Report by Madeleine Albright's Team and Its Wide-ranging Contexts ("Council of Wise Men" and Drawing up the Alliance's New Strategic Concept)ReviewedPhDr. Antonín RašekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 15-30 This concept has been preparing since the early 2009. In short, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation must be increasingly prepared to intervene far beyond its borders. In the coming decade, NATO will have four central inter-related military missions. The first requirement is to "deter, prevent and defend" against aggression, so as to ensure the political independence and territorial integrity of NATO member states. The report insists on the need to send out military missions beyond the treaty area "when required to prevent an attack on the treaty area or to protect the legal rights and other vital interests of Alliance members". Any expeditionary mission must be based on the principles of the UN charter. Another key item is to cooperate better with those partners, and others worldwide, in order to tackle the new threats posed by cyber attacks, piracy, arms proliferation and energy supply insecurity and climate change. However, in order to achieve the new goals, NATO "must halt the precipitous decline in national defence spending", and to introduce reforms to make spending more efficient. |
Alliance's New Strategic Concept (Discussion Continues)ReviewedPhDr. Antonín RašekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 3-15 The NATO's New Strategic Concept is only starting point to open discussion on a wide range of security problems. At the beginning there is a description of Czech home politics, attitudes of Czech political parties toward NATO alliance. The author explores the history of NATO's identity crisis. In recent years, different security optics of the members splintered NATO. The US wants an expeditionary alliance with a global reach, the Western Europeans hold to a vision of a regional club of liberal democracies, the Central Europeans have a wish so that Washington would stand by them when they will find themselves pressured by Russia. NATO is divided on how to reform its decision-making processes and how to fund and resource its home and away missions. In Afghanistan, the Alliance faces the most difficult operational challenge to date, with a real possibility of strategic failure. The overarching problem is how to define the core business of NATO: cyber defence, energy security, WMD proliferation, stability and reconstruction missions, out-of-area missions, territorial security, enlargement, partnership-building. The discussion over the New Strategic Concept needs to reorder the question how to define NATO's appropriate roles and go from there. |
NATO Response ForceMilitary artIng. Jaroslav KulíšekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 46-71 This article illustrates the troubles encountered with development of the NRF. The NATO Response Force is a highly ready and technologically advanced force made up of land, air, sea and special operations forces components that the Alliance can deploy quickly wherever needed. The NRF is intended to be a transformational force that will not only be able to meet the security needs of NATO in 21st century but also serve as an agent of change whereby all the member nations of NATO will be able to bring capabilities, and concepts of operations into their national forces. Undoubtedly, the NRF will not provide a basis for solving all of complex challenges. But it does offer an opportunity for experimentation and testing-the essence of military transformation-and the forging of creative solutions. The views expressed in this assessment are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of NATO or EU. |
Jan Eichler: International Security in the Era of Globalization. (Informative review)Book reviewVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 191-195 This is another publication by Mr. Jan Eichler. It consits of three parts: the fi rst one defines nearly three dozens of basic terms in the field of security, the second one deals with wars in the 90?s, and finally third part concentrates on terrorism. The book has evidently pedagogical bias, with explanatory character. Under the influence of foremost sociologist Ulrich Beck, Jan Eichler interprets risks as ?social phenomena? derived from threats. The author also evaluates wars in Africa, Asia and Latin America, in Serbia or the Persian Gulf, which took place in 1990-2001. There were 120 armed confl icts, with 94 % victims from among civil population (compared with 50 % of WWII and 15 % WWI). In those wars bellingerent parties deployed weapons of all sorts, with the exception of WMD. As far as international terrorism is concerned, the author sees as its primary characterists the absence of warning before terrorist attacks are accomplished. |
Theory of Gravity in War on International TerrorismMilitary artIng. Ján SpišákVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 47-64 Official objectives of war on terrorism are as follows: we must face theorist threats, prevent terrorist strikes; suppress the power of terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda. War on terrorism is not a classical or conventional warfare; the term is wide-ranging, covering longterm strategies of national importance. The war on terrorism and employed means are also a source of controversy. It is a question of adequacy of used tools. It is necessary to implement the new strategy of improving conditions in Muslim countries to eliminate their background supporting negative religious and political attitudes towards democracy. Outlined ways of "smoothing edges" in economical, social spheres can noticeably change hateful attitudes of Muslim population towards values of Western democratic society. |
Military Exercises EU-MILEXMilitary artIng. Jaroslav KulíšekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 65-81 Such exercises are regular part of European exercise process that in periodical cycles examines individual capacities of solving crisis situations, conducting crisis operations under methods developed by the EU. European training process does not cover only the preparation of military units, but also those of civil elements (police, rescue teams, diplomats). Since 2007 the exercises have been ran according to a common scenario "ALISIA", with the purpose to practise crisis operations control by commanders and staffs of EU nations, without any means and elements or support by NATO. European exercise process allows to the EUMS to organize and harmonize two exercises of solving crisis situations in a year. Five members of the Czech Army took part in the exercise MILEX 09 last year. They were involved in the operational planning process at the EU OHQ Specialist Staff, CJ2, CJ4, CJ5 and CJ7 departments. The article is mostly based on the experiences of Czech offi cers at the EU OHQ LARISSA. |
Obama's First Year in the White HouseReviewedPhDr. Antonín RašekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 3-23 President Barack Obama came to power at a difficult time in America's history. Home and foreign policies are hard to manage, among others, as we are on the threshold of post-ethnic society, and in the war with terrorisms. Obama does not give up American leadership, but he is seeking to find the balance between security and liberty, between power and freedom in the world, broadly speaking. As the consequence, Mr. Rašek presumes emerging the new global security situation: the rise of multipolar world, divided into several new political spheres. This author's opinion is backed by comments by reputable world's political analysts. As far as Euro-Atlantic relations are concerned, or relations with Russia, there are excellent prospects, namely there is the progress with Russia on arms control-part of Obama's determination to put the world on a path toward nuclear disarmament. The author ascribes the drop in Obama's popularity to failed healthcare reform; outside the US, to the fact that Obama is not able to define clear goals and missions in Afghanistan. |
Wild Cards in the Future Development of Word's Security (Trends till the Year 2040)Nonreviewed - OtherPhDr. Miloš Balabán, Ph.D., PhD. Antonín RašekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 3-17 This opening study is written by two authors, members of Centre for Social and Economic Strategies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University Prague, which is an interdisciplinary research and education unit engaged in the development of theory, methodology and practice of exploring possible futures, and the application of analyses and forecasts in decision making. The authors propose to supplement prognostic scenarios by the so-called wild cards that represent something unpredictable, extra players or actors taking part in a global politics. They compare wild cards of 2001 with the present-day situation, and then predict state of affairs till 2040, among others, the islamisation of Europe and hispanisation of the United States. The purpose of this is to promote dialogues between military and security experts, politicians, civil servants, civil sector activists, as well as individual citizens. |

