Vojenské Rozhledy

Czech Military Review

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Results 121 to 150 of 6337:

Factors Infuencing Quality of Preparation for Urban Area Operations

Nonreviewed - Other

kpt. Ing. Pavel Zahradníček

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2016, Vol. XXV. (LVII.): 144-149

The article identifies specific attributes which have influenced duality of training for urban area operations. There are mentioned only the crucial ones. The author was inspired his own experience as infantry unit commander. He used his knowledge gained from military assignments. The article could be considered as topic for future discussion not only on academic but also on specialized level.

Possibilities of Tactical Activities Optimization in the Framework of Engineer Units

Reviewed - Review

Doc. Ing. Jaroslav ZELENÝ, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2016, Vol. XXV. (LVII.): 91-101 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.25.2016.01.091-101

The article presents possible approaches to solve problems of finding the optimum state of tactical activities within the level of small Engineer Units. The intention is, by elaborating of the partial engineer goal which is focussed on the area of engineer units' tactics, to develop input data/ information needed for further development of mathematical models of the tactical activities. Subsequently, with the judgement on modelling outputs (applicability within C2 activities of staffs' task force structures) from engineer unit tactics point of view, the article contributes to enhancing all of C2 processes effectiveness. The article also provides us with information about the range of facts relative with problems of selected engineer unit (counter-mobility task forces) deployment planning, and controlling. There can be also found inventory of activities appropriate for optimization.

Operational Art in Army of the Czech Republic from Perspective of Participants in Career Courses for Higher Officers. Criticism, Argumentation, and Recommendation

Reviewed - Research

Ing. Ján Spišák, Ph.D., plk. gšt. Ing. Tomáš Rak

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2016, Vol. XXV. (LVII.): 66-81 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.25.2016.02.066-080

The primary mission of commanders and staffs is a skillful realization of all measures related to preparation, planning, conduct and control of military operations. Ability to implement these measures originates from their professional knowledge of the theory of operational art and capability to execute it in practice. Based on a feedback from the courses participants, the authors of the article propose a set of measures which may contribute not only to improvement of the level of knowledge, skills and competences of military personal, but also to increase interest in the overall development of operational art in the Czech Armed Forces.

The Kurdish Diaspora in Central Europe its Response to Actual Development in Syria and Iraq and Predictions of Further Development

Reviewed - Review

Mgr. et Mgr. Michael Murad, Mgr. Josef Kraus, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 119-131 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.24.2015.03.119-131

Following article deals with the Kurdish diaspora in Middle-Europe at the background of current conflict with so called Islamic State. Kurds are one of the main actors of this strong regional conflict and their diaspora in Germany and Austria are forced to react to such a situation. The text is focused not only on actual situation in Syria and Iraq, but mainly on Kurdish reaction towards it. Not only for Czech reader there is interesting part dealing with Kurdish community in Czech Republic, although this diaspora is not as numerous and strong as in Germany or Austria. One of the important outcomes of the article is an attempt to predict future scenarios of Kurds situation development. But it is necessary to mention the high dynamics of conflict with Islamic State complicates any such an attempt of prediction.

Lessons Learned Process as a Part of Management Process in the Defense Sector

Reviewed - Review

pplk. Ing. Janka KOSECOVÁ

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2016, Vol. XXV. (LVII.): 46-60 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.25.2016.03.046-060

The Lessons Learned from the military operations and exercises as a system and process was introduced to the Czech Armed Forces in 2004. Since this time, it become a standard component of command and control, and one of the tools that generates impulses on the development of capability of the units and staffs, at all levels. The article discusses not only the achievements but focusing on the barriers that hinder effective development system and the lessons learned process. In the first part of the article, this loosely follows the article, published in issue 1/2015 magazine Vojenské rozhledy - Czech Military Rewiev, the authors focused on the basic principles of the process. The focus of the article is to analyse the current state of the lessons learned process with result, that one of the main problems is the misunderstanding of the process by some commanders and also analysis of the lessons identified on the strategic level. At the end of the text, the authors presented recommendations on how to overcome the identified barriers and ensure the further optimization of the process.

Conflict in Ukraine and Russia's involvement: A New Hybrid War, or the Application of C lassical Methods?

Nonreviewed - Other

Mgr. Richard STOJAR, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 26-37

This text presents development of the Ukrainian conflict in the context of contemporary discussion about the extent of Russian intervention in crisis regions. The author explores thesis about application of hybrid war by Russian side, use of new military and strategic methods. He also presents and evaluates the arguments which oppose the idea of considerable changes in character of military conflicts, which were demonstrated during the occupation of Crimea and during the combat clashes in Eastern Ukraine having in mind the state and possibilities of the involved actors.

Experience from Canceled Sajkovac Base Extend the Czech Armed Forces Engineer Capabilities

Nonreviewed - Review

npor. Ing. Jan Hanudeľ, plk. doc. Ing. Pavel Maňas Ph.D., mjr. Ing. Jiří Štoller Ph.D., pplk. v.z. Ing. Vojtěch Hanudeľ

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2016, Vol. XXV. (LVII.): 102-113

The article deals with experience in closure of military bases in foreign operations. It follows in article Life cycle of military bases in foreign operations, published in Vojenské rozhledy Nr. 4/2009. The text of article presents current knowledge about the life cycle of military bases and general principles from the perspective of the latest NATO Handbook. The theoretical part of the article introduces weighting method of decision analysis, which compares current ways for the field bases closure. Authors describe findings from base closure Šajkovac that significantly influenced removal activities.

Morocco´s Foreign Fighters: Jihadists´ 2nd Generation and its Islamist Ideology

Nonreviewed - Other

Mgr. Jana Kostrounová

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2016, Vol. XXV. (LVII.): 82-90

There is currently about 1 500 Moroccan citizens fighting for the so-called Daech in Syria and Iraq; that makes the North African monarchy one of the main countries which export radical islam djihadists and supporters abroad to the war-beaten Syrian-Iraqi region. Until 2014 Moroccan officials let them leave the country almost freely, to be precise, they didn´t prevent them from travelling to Syria, Iraq and other proxy war destinations. That´s how have the Moroccan fighters joined the Daech rows fighting in the beginning against the Syrian president Asad. But it seems now that the situation has rapidly changed: the Kingdom of Morocco is currently fighting and closely monitoring its own foreign fighters who are coming back home. Especially such eventual threat is pushing the country for creating a new national security strategy related to this risky minority, which needs to be integrated back to the Moroccan society.

Directed Energy Weapons as a Means to Development of Capabilities of the Armed Forces

Nonreviewed - Other

Ing. Jan VALOUCH, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2016, Vol. XXV. (LVII.): 61-81

The Directed energy weapons use highly focused energy to damage targets. These weapons use electromagnetic radiation, sound, or subatomic particles. This article aims mainly presentation of information on the current situation in the field of directed electromagnetic weapons that use pulsed electromagnetic field in the range of radio waves and microwaves band. These technologies are used for disruption or destruction of electronic and electrical circuits of the enemy equipment. This makes it possible to neutralize or completely destroy the operation of information, communication, management, control, firing and other electronic devices.

Brigadni general in memoriam Vladimir Sterba

Nonreviewed - Other

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2016, Vol. XXV. (LVII.): 148-150

Defence Development and its Possible Impact on Capabilities of Czech Armed Forces Chemical Corps

Nonreviewed - Other

pplk. doc. Ing. Pavel OTŘÍSAL, Ph.D., MBA, kpt. Ing. Radim ZAHRADNÍČEK

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2016, Vol. XXV. (LVII.): 82-89

Successful protection against Weapons of Mass Destruction and Toxic Industrial Materials is a permanent and current challenge for the Czech Armed Forces Chemical Corps units and formations. Technical and technological improvements of the equipment and material as a result of defence development projects mostly contributed to enhancement of operational capabilities. In some cases, however, the required capability has not been changed or has been worsened. The paper deals with principal results of the study which the authors have elaborated in 2015.

The Consequences of the Bundeswehr Mission in Afghanistan for German Military Engagement Abroad

Reviewed - Review

PhDr. Pavel Dvořák

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2016, Vol. XXV. (LVII.): 24-43 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.25.2016.01.024-043

This article focuses on answering the question to what extent did the German foreign and security policy change, based on the ISAF mission in Afghanistan, especially when it comes to military deployment abroad. The author identifies and analyses the consequences associated with the German experience in Afghanistan and their influence on the current and future deployment of German armed forces abroad. The attention is given to the German strategic culture of "civilian power" and the question, if Germany still fulfills the attributes connected with this theoretical concept. The author verifies this assumption by means of the role theory concept, which helps to understand the behavior of Germany on the international level.

Centre of Gravity-the Decisive Operational Concept Part II

Military art

Plk. gšt. Ing. Ján Spišák

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 36-43

The second part of this short serial deals with the theory of the operational art focusing on the centre of gravity (COG). The article emanates from Carl von Clausewitz's ideas, doctrinal publications analysis and many study projects of the operational art theorists. The author especially aims on disunity and heterogeneity of comprehension of the centre of gravity theory in confrontation of contemporary doctrinal publications and original Clausewitz's theory. He compares operational manuals (those of U.S. and NATO), and finds similarities concerning characteristics, capabilities or localities from which a military force, nation or alliance, derives its freedom of action, physical strength or will to fight. Finally, he himself defines enemy's centre of gravity and highlights coherences that can affect fulfilling political and military objectives in current and future military operations.

Operational Adaptability and Human Dimension of the Armed Conflict

Nonreviewed - Other

mjr. Ing. Tomáš Novák

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2016, Vol. XXV. (LVII.): 102-112

The article discusses the operational adaptability, which will be needed, in accordance with US, in future armed conflicts. The capability of operational adaptability has a significant impact particularly on the operations of land forces, which are still considered as a paramount military power. One of the prerequisites for achieving operational adaptability is effective influencing the dynamics of the human environment in armed conflict. Current development and emphasizing technology over the course of armed conflict detached too fare the War from its intangible political, cultural and psychological context. Human, psychological, political and cultural dimensions of armed conflict create a lot of uncertainty, which land forces should deal with in the future military operations. A partial solution applicable for Czech Armed Forces also outlines this article.

Psychology of Terrorism and the Staircase Mataphor

Reviewed - Review

PhDr. Josef Smolík, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 82-101 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.24.2015.03.082-101

The article deals with the contemporary form of terrorism, introduces selected issues and discusses the psychology of terrorism. Various forms and typologies of contemporary terrorism which occurs in different geographical and cultural areas and uses large scale of methods and tactical and strategic approaches are introduced as well.The main goal of this article is to describe psychological aspects of terrorism with the emphasis on the motivation and group dynamics of terrorist organizations. The staircase metaphor which allows thinking about the process of recruitment of terrorists is introduced as well. The article derives especially from theoretical socio-psychological and political findings.

Military Decision-making Process and Advanced Methods of Managerial Decisions

Military art

Ing. Pavel Zůna, MSS

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 22-37

The problem of forming military decisions lies in the very core of this article. Among others, there are a lot of highly unpredictable impact factors; there are many assessment criteria for individual variants of solving problems. Criteria of qualitative characters, and various interpretations of data information demand quality decisions; they are sometimes difficult to understand and even contradictory. The commanders and their staffs must be well educated, trained and experienced. To meet this precondition we must ensure quality of career training, supported by practical experiences. The staff work must be practiced regularly, with the use of various scenarios, supplemented by historical studies of past or recent fi ghts and battles.

NATO Common Funding as a Tool for Cohesion Enhancement and Ability to Act

Military art

Ing. Josef Procházka, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2012, Vol. XXI. (LIII.): 25-34 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.21.2012.04.025-034

In the past, the Common Funding played only marginal role in the NATO strategic decision-making. However, this situation changed significantly when the global economic crisis challenged the national public expenditures and NATO defence policy became a matter of serious reflections. NATO should balance its requirements with limited resources and adjust its future activities within shrinking budgets. NATO must make hard decisions and implement reforms in order to ensure its ability to fulfil its mission and priority tasks in the long run. The reconfiguration of Common Funding is an inherent part of this process. The aim of this article is to introduce Common Funding as a management-supporting tool of the international organisation under currently mounting resource constrains.

European Naval Strategy: Analysis of Selected Issues in EU Member States

Reviewed - Review

Mgr. Tereza Šafářová

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 25-39 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.23.2014.04.025-039

Europe is a maritime continent whose economic concerns and security could be backed only by the power of navy forces. The Czech Republic is not a maritime state, but it is a member country of both NATO and the EU, it participates in the formation of common security policy. Czech soldiers could take part in combined joint military operations, where one of forces is also a Navy. Dozens of Czech citizens are employed in common international institutes and staffs; they all need a broader view, including the knowledge of Integrated European Naval Strategy. Their activities promote the status of the Czech Republic at international level.
This contribution contextually explores European space and its naval power. It introduces naval forces projection of European national navies, the bulk of which best respond to current security issues, along with decisions of the national governments of the EU and NATO member states. The article also dedicates extensive attention to the Russian naval strategy.

Armadni general Simon Drgac

Nonreviewed - Other

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 113-117

Conceptual Development of the AFCR - Approaches and Strategic Starting Points

Reviewed - Review

Ing. František Mičánek, Ing. Josef Procházka, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 4-19 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.24.2015.01.004-019

This paper aims to enrich professional discussion on future shape of the Armed Forces of the Czech Republic (AFCR) and is linked to the preceding research and publishing activities of members of the Centre for Security and Military Strategic Studies (CBVSS) at the University of Defence. In its first part, it performs a historical tour to the year 2012 and highlights the reasons that the former leadership of the ACR led to the start of construction work on the concept of AFCR (KVAČR). Briefly describes the interconnection and the hierarchy of individual conceptual and strategic documents, the procedure works on them and summarizes the arguments supporting the need of KVAČR as such. The next section brings potential methodological approaches to the preparation of this document, using the method of the "9S", including practical examples, it renumbers basic strategic assumptions and priorities in various stages, bordered by years 2020 and 2025 as a prerequisite for formulating strategies for achieving this specific goal. Within the document, there is a short excursion into the field of long-term planning for major areas of skills, using their description of DOTMLPFI functional areas, including an example of using this methodology in project preparation of program funding. The recommendations formulated in the article are based on the authors' best experiences with the preparation of documents of a similar type in the years 2003-2013, the recommendations of experts from the broader security community of the Czech Republic, and recommendations of the Alliance. As such, it has been passed to the KVAČR processors at level of the General Staff of AFCR over the years 2013-2014.

Islamic State: Conflict Actors, their Participation, Motives and Goals

Reviewed - Review

Mgr. Josef Kraus, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 20-36 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.24.2015.02.020-036

This text is focused on current situation in Syria and Iraq and so called Islamic State, the one of the biggest threats of contemporary world. The rise of this quasi­state at background of civil war in Syria and still not fully solved conflict in Iraq is the result of involvement of many internal and external actors. The form of their involvement and especially their goals are very different from each other and despite sporadic and declaratory agreements in partial points the main reason the Islamic State still exists in very good shape is disunited attitude of local and external powers against it. The main aim of this text is to explain and to analyze main motives and goals of all relevant actors and sides of mentioned conflict and describe the way they affect its dynamics. Due to that it is possible to increase the knowledge of readers in such a chaotic, unclear and often misinterpreted situation in the Middle-East.

Security and Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation in Syria

Reviewed - Review

Mgr. Lukáš Tichý

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 37-50 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.24.2015.02.037-050

During the Arab Spring Revolution, when the protests against the Syrian government began in 2011, Russia was one of the strongest backers of President Bashar al-Assad's regime, backing its right to use force if necessary to prevent or put down an uprising. Currently, the Russian Federation is the power which has most prominently provided a diplomaticshieldforthe Syrian state and bolstered it witharms supplies, although Moscow talks about the need to "balance" between the warring parties in Syria. The main aim of this paper is to analyze the motives of the foreign and security policy of the Russian Federation in support of Syrian President BasharAssad in the background of Russian interests and influence of norms. At the theoretical level, the paper builds upon a combination of conventional constructivism and rationalism approaches, which in relation to the motives of Russian protection and defense of the ruling regime in Syria reflects a number of fundamental knowledge.

Concept of Kant's Peace: Settling Disputes Peacefully

Reviewed - Review

Mgr. Petra Průchová

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 64-89 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.23.2014.03.064-089

This essay is focused upon the concept of Perpetual Peace (1795) by the German Philosopher Immanuel Kant. To reach this goal, he advocated the establishment of a word federation of republican states. But some key prerequisites (s.c. preliminary and definitive articles) must be completed. The authoress compares the Kant's concepts with the ideas of solidarity by the Czech philosopher Jan Patočka. The readers themselves must pass the judgement whether Kant's prerequisites of eternal peace-even for more then two centuries-are fulfilled, or not. This subject matter belongs to a relatively young field of study dealing with war and peace, the so-called paxology, the theory how peace can be maintained in the world.

This essay is focused upon the concept of Perpetual Peace (1795) by the German Philosopher Immanuel Kant. To reach this goal, he advocated the establishment of a word federation of republican states. But some key prerequisites (s.c. preliminary and definitive articles) must be completed. The authoress compares the Kant's concepts with the ideas of solidarity by the Czech philosopher Jan Patočka. The readers themselves must pass the judgement whether Kant's prerequisites of eternal peace-even for more then two centuries-are fulfilled, or not. This subject matter belongs to a relatively young field of study dealing with war and peace, the so-called paxology, the theory how peace can be maintained in the world.

Some Difficulties of Correlation between Strategy and Operational Art

Reviewed - Review

Ing. Ján Spišák, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 132-143 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.24.2015.03.132-143

The article deals with correlation of strategy and operational art. The aim of the article is to point on deficit of relationship between political decision-making and military planning. The first part of the article simply introduces doctrinal tools of operational art, applicable at both the operational and strategic level. The second part refers to the fact that application of some standard elements of operational art in terms of overall strategic framework loses partly importance because of their use in the context of unconventional conflict has been less appropriate. The third part deals with criticism of the mutual undesirable separation of politicians and military professionals involved in operations planning. Conclusion of the article offers possible solutions of this deficit.

Security System: Optimalization, or New Conception?

Reviewed - Review

Ing. Vladimír Krulík, PhDr. Antonín Rašek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 23-34 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.24.2015.03.023-034

The article deals with the development of the security system since the November 1989 events. Special attention is paid to the situation near the year 2005, when the last opportunity to update a comprehensive concept of security system occurred. The text deals with the comprehensive management of the security system issue. The authors of the article present key events and strategic documents forming the current shape of the Czech security system. In the final part of article, you can find the proposal of the strategic document management system within the security development system. Article results in the knowledge that the modern security system concept is still challenge for us.

Research of Al-Qa'ida Has Never been Easier: an Overview of the Sources of Primary Data

Nonreviewed - Other

Mgr. Petr Zelinka

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 46-60

There has never been so much primary data on al-Qa'ida publicly available. Nevertheless primary data are still not used enough, despite the fact that their omission had a clearly detrimental effect on the quality of research on al-Qa'ida. The article's goal is twofold: to lay out an overview of the publicly available sources of primary data on al-Qa'ida and by highlighting interesting aspects of their content to demonstrate their usefulness for the research in general. The article deals particularly with outputs of public institutions, al-Qa'ida's members' publications, al-Qa'ida's members' communication that has been made public and leaked classified information. The topic how to use the sources of primary data will be discussed briefly. The article aims at encouraging the academic and expert community to use primary data more broadly when researching al-Qa'ida.

Evidence of Artillery Ammunition Ballistic Characteristics Using Barcodes within an Automated Artillery Fire Control System

Reviewed - Research

kpt. Ing. Karel Šilinger, Ph.D., mjr. Ing. Mgr. Martin Blaha, Ph.D., prof. Ing. Ladislav Potužák, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 38-46 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.24.2015.04.038-046

This article contains the essence of the modular part of an automated artillery fire control system, which will enable automated detection of artillery ammunition ballistic characteristics using barcodes placed on missiles and cartridges. The article describes the current state of evidence of artillery ammunition ballistic characteristics, presents possible approaches to the concept of evidence of artillery ammunition ballistic characteristics using barcodes, defines the framework requirements for the automation of this part of artillery fire ballistics preparation, describes the determination of the distance individual corrections resulting from the artillery ammunition ballistic characteristics and states possible ways to automated processing overview of artillery ammunition carried by the conveyors of missiles and cartridges.

CBRN EOD Capability as a Current Challenge for Czech Armed Forces Chemical Corps

Reviewed - Review

npor. Ing. Radim Zahradníček, plk. doc. Ing. Zdeněk Skaličan, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 72-82 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.24.2015.02.072-082

The article describes CBRN EOD capability, which is one of the developed areas within the scope of the Czech Armed Forces Chemical Corps. It depicts CBRN EOD in the context of operational use of chemical troops, introduces an option of appropriate task force and mentions basic operational requirements to ensure safe proceeding at the incident site. It highlights the importance of common training and interoperability amongst participating units. The article derives from NATO written sources, national operational procedures and expert views of interested persons.

Cooperation of Civil and Military Logistics in Military Operations

Reviewed - Review

Doc. Ing. Miroslav Cempírek, CSc., Doc. Ing. Miroslav Pecina, CSc., Ing. Miroslav Musil, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 144-158 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.24.2015.03.144-158

The article deals with the integration of outside resources into the process of support Forces in Military operations. The crux of this work lies in the illustration of 'place' and the role of Civil Contracting Supports in the Combat Service system of Armed Forces. It also accentuates the sense and complexity of Combat Service Support. The article analyses the advantages. disadvantages and risks for utilizating Civil Contractors in armed conflicts. The text respects this and acknowledges the benefit from experience of the NATO Armies in this field. In the closing part the authors formulate recommendations for the later boom of 'Combat Service' theory and practice. The effect and benefit of this article lies first of all in its suggestion of criteria for the selection of contractors.

Back to the Future: Counterfactuals and Scenarios in Defense Research and Planning

Reviewed - Review

RNDr. Jan Kofroň, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 48-61 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.24.2015.03.048-061

Defense planning and research has to engage with questions about future developments quite often. Solutions to these questions tend to be hazy due to (I) the missing data, or due to (II) the necessity to build long-term prognoses, which are - by their very nature - only remotely related to any current or historical empirical cases. Under these conditions counterfactuals and their specific - future- oriented - form: scenarios, offer a valuable tool. Nevertheless, counterfactuals and scenarios, due to their limited empirical embeddedness, demand explicit and rigorous application of a theory. The article highlights often overlooked resemblance of scenarios and counterfactuals and derives from this fact some methodological implications for scenario building enterprise. Beyond that, it aims at demonstrating possible contributions as well as obstacles inherent for the use of scenarios and counterfactuals in our defense policy debates.

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