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Military Police Needs its own ConceptNonreviewed - Othermjr. Ing. Lukáš StejskalVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 111-116 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.24.2015.02.111-116 The article is related to the building process of Capabilities Development Concept of Military Police (MP) in Ministry of Defence environment. With regards to the specific status of MP within Ministry of defence and with regards to diversity of assigned tasks Capabilities Development Concept of MP is finally hybrid document, containing elements of concept, strategy and long-term development intent. This is positive fact based on unique status of this branch of arms. The author who is actively influencing the proces of concept building is describing his recommendations and observations which might be convenient also for those readers who are not Military Police workers. |
Host Nation Support (HNS) in the Context of International Air Forces Exercises in the Czech RepublicNonreviewed - Othernadporučík Ing. Martin ŠkvařilVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 117-130 The article analyses the Host Nation Support (HNS) planning process in five separate phases according to the NATO procedures. The author emphasizes the importance, purpose and result of every planning stage. The main objective of the article is to apply general rules to the concrete examples of international air forces exercises. The author further identifies his comprehension of HNS formed in the specific conditions of the 22th Helicopter Base. The logistic planning process analysis is based on the experience from exercises Ramstein Rover and Ample Strike held in the period of 2012-2014. The paper is focused on exercises preparatory stages that create the basis for a successful accomplishment of the executive part. The results of the article present the trend of planning responsibility delegation to the tactical level and define the specifics of adapted planning process. The author's contribution may be used as a lead for the future application of the HNS concept. |
Conceptual Development of the AFCR - Approaches and Strategic Starting PointsReviewed - ReviewIng. František Mičánek, Ing. Josef Procházka, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 4-19 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.24.2015.01.004-019 This paper aims to enrich professional discussion on future shape of the Armed Forces of the Czech Republic (AFCR) and is linked to the preceding research and publishing activities of members of the Centre for Security and Military Strategic Studies (CBVSS) at the University of Defence. In its first part, it performs a historical tour to the year 2012 and highlights the reasons that the former leadership of the ACR led to the start of construction work on the concept of AFCR (KVAČR). Briefly describes the interconnection and the hierarchy of individual conceptual and strategic documents, the procedure works on them and summarizes the arguments supporting the need of KVAČR as such. The next section brings potential methodological approaches to the preparation of this document, using the method of the "9S", including practical examples, it renumbers basic strategic assumptions and priorities in various stages, bordered by years 2020 and 2025 as a prerequisite for formulating strategies for achieving this specific goal. Within the document, there is a short excursion into the field of long-term planning for major areas of skills, using their description of DOTMLPFI functional areas, including an example of using this methodology in project preparation of program funding. The recommendations formulated in the article are based on the authors' best experiences with the preparation of documents of a similar type in the years 2003-2013, the recommendations of experts from the broader security community of the Czech Republic, and recommendations of the Alliance. As such, it has been passed to the KVAČR processors at level of the General Staff of AFCR over the years 2013-2014. |
Prospects of Artillery: Which Way Ahead for the Czech Armed ForcesReviewed - ReviewPlukovník Ing. Ivan Mráz, Ph.D., podplukovník gšt. Ing. Milan KalinaVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 52-63 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.23.2014.03.052-063 The fire support is an inevitable prerequisite for the success of combat forces in land military operations and artillery is its key provider. Will it be even in a future complex and uncertain operating environment? The article recalls high requirements on the current ACR artillery and with the use of the Alliance partner's findings, it points to selected aspects that might influence its capabilities development towards the future operations. The article defines artillery as an indirect fire system and clarifies its role and tasks in the framework of joint fire support. It proposes measures to increase the quality of its training and management. It discusses the issue of an operational concept and its importance for the future ACR artillery, together with introducing main trends in areas of its potential development. |
Armed Conflict and Relations of its Economic AnalysisReviewed - ReviewIng. Aleš Olejníček, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 22-40 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.23.2014.02.022-040 The topic of this essay is an insight into the interrelations of the economic analysis of armed conflict. The author tries to explain its substance and importance and at the same time he warns against the difficulties with its implementation. Backed by several studies, we must conclude that there is a lot of confusion in terminology we use. It is therefore proposed to apply cost-benefit analysis, so that we could create a unified terminology and simultaneously to use this analysis to present armed conflict economy in terms of overall expenses vs. likely benefits aroused by respective armed warfare. |
Operation Sangaris 2013: French intervention in Central AfricaReviewed - ReviewDoc. PhDr. Jan Eichler, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 41-52 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.23.2014.02.041-052 The acts of violence have swept the whole Central African Republic (CAR) since March last year. When the Muslim fighters of Seleka rebel groups had deposed a Christian president Francois Bozize, the fighting between Christian militias and Muslim population broke out. The provisional government of the Muslim Michel Djotodia allegedly intentionally massacred civilians, including women, children and old people. In December 2013, under the resolution by the Security Council, UN, the French troops of 1600 men were sent to help to African Union soldiers to keep growing chaos at bay. But up to now, the violence has not been stopped. Nearly a million of people have been internally displaced in the country. A total of 935 thousand of Central Africans are currently sheltering in scrublands or living with their relatives. More than half of the city's population fled Bangui, some 60 per cent of those displaced are children, according to the UN refugee agency, UNHCR. |
The Process of Accession to NATO and Its Influence on Shaping the Czech Republic Security SystemReviewed - ReviewPhDr. Zdeněk BorkovecVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 8-21 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.23.2014.01.008-021 The accession of the Czech Republic to NATO is reflected in the Czech security system, especially in the political, institutional, organizational and legislative areas. The article describes the ways to achieve the NATO key requirements: political, institutional, legislative, defence, resources, as well as information security and public support. In order to become fully capable to consume benefits of NATO membership and fulfil its obligations, appropriate legislative changes must be adopted. Four North Atlantic Treaty Organization pillars had to be integrated: Washington Treaty, defence planning, information security, mutual solidarity. |
Output Specifics of Rapid Map Products within the Framework of Geospatial Support at a Strategic LevelReviewed - Reviewplk. Ing. Vladimír Kovařík, MSc. Ph.D., pplk. Ing. Jan Marša, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 106-120 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.23.2014.01.106-120 This paper deals with a geospatial support at a strategic level, especially with the production of rapid map products, presenting at this level the most required product type. Backed by their own working experiences from both NATO and EU command structures, the authors describe requirements for geospatial products created at a strategy level, emphasizing the importance of respecting the general cartographic principles. The authors compare the general technology of thematic map production, making use of Geographic Information System, technology, with the technology specific to the strategic level. They also describe the specifics of production at that level, presenting examples both similarities and differences between geospatial support in NATO and the EU. |
The Position of the Russian Federation to Western Military Interventions in 1999-2011Reviewed - ReviewMgr. et Mgr. Lukáš TichýVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2013, Vol. XXII. (LIV.): 22-41 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.22.2013.04.022-041 On the one hand, Russia is among the countries which often criticize the Western-led military intervention. On the other hand, in the last twenty years, Russia has repeatedly approved using military force by the West against an individual state, endorsed by the United National Security Council. The main purpose of this article is therefore to describe and analyse Russian position towards four Western military interventions 1999-2011. Specifically, the article is focused on two military interventions without UN Security Council mandates (Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in 1999 and Iraq in 2003), the intervention with the expanded UN Security Council resolution (Afghanistan 2001) and the military intervention that was partially approved by the UN Security Council resolutions (Libya 2011). |
The Army of the Czech Republic and its Share in Providing Humanitarian Aid in Specific CasesNonreviewed - OtherMjr. Ing. Jan Kyselák, Ph.D., Ing. Zdeněk ProcházkaVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2013, Vol. XXII. (LIV.): 52-66 The article is involved in the problems of providing humanitarian aid. The authors analyze legislative and social surroundings upon which the humanitarian assistance is rendered by the Army of the Czech Republic. They characterize various forms of non-governmental organizations in our country and the conditions under which the Czech Army is allowed to cooperate with them. There are many special features in providing assistance, namely as far as members of various church denominations in the Czech Republic are concerned. The list of selected denominations with their short profiles is enclosed. |
Present-day Notions on Military DeceptionsMilitary artDoc. Ing. Milan Kubeša, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 60-65 In the previous Military Review we introduced the article "Will Military Deception Pass Away?" by the same author. In the Army of the Czech Republic we have no manual dealing with military deception (MILDEC). The only manual concerning MILDEC was abolished without any substitute. But military art can't be further developed without similar documents. Today we take MILDEC as a complex set of provisions misleading enemy's commanders and staff, by means of false information and counterfeit data that deliberately deceive adversary decision-makers and planners. Use of MILDEC during any phase of an operation also helps to mislead adversaries as to the strength, readiness, locations, and intended missions of friendly forces. The MILDEC could contribute to the successful accomplishment of the assigned mission by many ways. |
The Czech Fiscal Policy for Internal and External Security after 1998Opinions, controversyPodplukovník Ing. Bohuslav Pernica, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 66-75 When the Czech Republic joined NATO, some structural changes in the national security sector were expected. Actually, changes in national defence strategy were declared by national strategic documents, such as military and security strategies. In addition to it, since 2002 the Czech Republic has been taking part in Global War on Terrorism and, generally speaking, it implies higher expenditures spent on security purposes. Surprisingly, many things have remained the same. The strategic documents were mostly ignored, deep changes did not happen due to fiscal policy based on a traditional incremental budgeting. Proportions between expenditures for internal and external security were only fluctuating. |
The Various Ways of Civil-Military Development (Concepts and Doctrines)ReviewedIng. Pavel Zona, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 20-29 With the running changes in methods of modern operations within NATO framework, there are also changes in demands and tasks in the scope of civil-military operations-CIMIC. They are incorporated in many documents, such as the Comprehensive Political Guidance, New Concept of Civil-Military Cooperation or Field Manual 3-07 Stability Operations. The CIMIC capacities ought to be used for active impact on impending security situation, crisis development, impact implemented more sooner then crises might escalate to conflicts, eventually they could be used to halt the conflicts, in the places where they are a threat to Alliance security. We must create new rules of co-operations between civil and military sections, with the use of Alliance materials, resources and documents from conferences, seminars and field working shops. Today we have also abundant experiences that the Army of the Czech Republic, its CIMIC section, have acquired in preceding ten years. |
Critical Analysis of Interconnection between Planning by Objectives and Capability PlanningReviewed - ResearchPlukovník gšt. Ing. Zdeněk PetrášVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 3-24 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.23.2014.04.003-024 The article brings outcomes from the critical analysis of interaction between planning by objectives and capability planning. The analysis is based on the assumption that the strategic decision-making process should be assisted by a systemic tool, enabling a financial assessment of capabilities, identified as a prerequisite for accomplishing politico-military ambitions. Taking into account the current planning system, as implemented within the Ministry of Defence, the planning by objectives might become this tool. However, for providing an efficient planning by objectives, it is necessary to derive relevant findings from the capability planning, which basically includes data on capability assessment, identified capability shortfalls and their prioritisation. Therefore, findings from capability planning process are a keystone for conceiving objectives for the area of capability development. Both capability planning and planning by objectives are to be seen as communicating conveyances, where a level of mutual interactions significantly influences effectiveness of defence performance management. |
Why to Afghanistan? Skills, Money or Ideals?Reviewed - ResearchMgr. Jitka Laštovková, Ph.D., plk. PhDr. Kateřina BernardováVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 40-50 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.23.2014.04.040-050 The motivation and professional values of soldiers involved in Other People's Wars is one of the most important knowledge necessary for effective command and control. Those were main reasons for an extensive questionnaire survey among soldiers, deployed in PRT ISAF in 2010-2011. One of the key topics was motivation to leave for Afghanistan, professional expectations and evaluations of external and internal environment of the mission. The purpose of this paper is to present the basic outlines of values of today's Czech soldiers, their professional motives and expectations. The results are interpreted in the context of Moskos' theory of the contradiction between institutional and occupational orientations of present armed forces and adapted to the actual social and political state of affairs. |
Some Pitfalls of the Czech Armed Forces ProfessionalizationReviewed - OtherProf. Ing. Jaroslav Komárek, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 75-87 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.23.2014.04.075-087 The Czech Armed Forces' professionalization is an underlying qualitative change and its realization is not without risks. This paper outlines the political origin of this phenomenon, characterises the coherence with the transformation of the Alliance and illustrates overseas experience with some recruitment problems, namely the NCOs, the limits of women in the armed forces, the role of voluntary reserve force, and the substantiations for compulsory military service generally. The purpose of this essay is to draw attention to less known pitfalls of this process, with wide connexions, going beyond regular professionalization frames, defined as a task carried out by the military personnel department. |
The Big Data Phenomenon as a Trend Influencing Technical Intelligence DisciplinesReviewed - OtherMjr. Ing. Martin Havlík, MBA, MSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 124-132 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.23.2014.04.124-132 This specialised article deals with Big Data and the exploitation of this current day phenomenon in the field of intelligence disciplines, based on technical methods of data gathering and its relevant assessments. The introduction deals with the issue of development of the security environment and gives general overview on the current trends in the field of technical branches. The following chapter analyses the main trends, especially the digitalisation of the battlefield, rise in data volume and the development of new technologies. The next chapter is focused on the basic terminology description of the Big Data issue, which leads into final assessment and certain prediction of future development in this field and the rise of importance of this trend for the intelligence disciplines in future. |
Resources for Defence of the Czech Republic: Perspectives and OpportunitiesReviewed - ReviewIng. František Mičánek, plk. doc. Ing. Vladan Holcner, Ph.D., Ing. Jakub Odehnal, Ph.D., Ing. Aleš Olejníček, Ph.D., Mgr. František ŠulcVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 9-21 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.23.2014.03.009-021 The paper is focused on the area of defence sources in the Czech Republic. Within an analysis of the actual situation in military spending in the Czech Republic, some potential approaches are defined to enable the reasonable and transparent allocation of resources for national defence. Based on these approaches, three courses of action are derived in order to deal with current resources inadequacy and instability in defence. |
Prospective Horizons of Further Cooperation between NATO and the EUReviewed - Reviewplukovník gšt. Ing. Zdeněk PetrášVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 22-30 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.23.2014.03.022-030 At present, it can be seen a tangible progress in the NATO-EU common approach to deal with challenging security issues. Paradoxically, it has been economic recession in combination with growing danger of arising armed conflicts, specifically on the European continent territory, to start up the closer cooperation between NATO and the EU. Logically, the current security situation ended in conclusions that the complementarity between NATO and the EU became a real necessity and only interaction between the Alliance and Union?s security and defence policies could bring required effects, while upholding global and local security stability. The article is available only in the Czech language. For more information please contact editors. |
NATO and Energy SecurityNonreviewed - OtherIng. René Nastoupil, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 31-43 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.23.2014.03.031-043 The article deals with the reasons why NATO is interested in energy security and main tasks which Alliance fulfils in this area. A special attention is paid to the energy dependence of the European member states of the Alliance, the increase of awareness about energy security, critical energy infrastructure protection and energy efficiency in the armed forces. The author elaborates the implementation of the energy security issues into the Alliance main activities, education and training in the field of energy security and cooperation with partner countries, other international organizations and private sector. |
Why Russia Wants to Buy Mistral Class WarshipsNonreviewed - OtherMgr. Jakub HaraštaVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 106-111 The Russian armed forces are influenced by a new concept of possible armed conflict. At present, Russian forces are not preparing themselves to one massive conflict, as in the period of bi-polar world, but the main stress is put on power-projection, into the spheres of Russian interests, i. e. into post-soviet republics. The Russian armed forces ought to be able partake in three regional conflicts simultaneously. That's why organizational and technological changes are presently in motion. The acquisition of French first Mistral-class vessels is an organic part of this process. The theme is particularly topical in the context of the current Ukrainian crisis. |
Russia's New Generation Warfare and LatviaNonreviewed - OtherVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 112-122 Russia's actions in the Ukraine have changed the security situation in the Baltic region, which makes NATO's long-term presence in Latvia essential for the Latvian Republic. The impacts of Russian actions on Latvian defence policy are discussed in the paper by Mr Janis Berzinš,Managing Director of the Centre for Security and Defence Research, National Defence Academy of Latvia, in Policy Paper, No. 2, 2014. It is a new way of intervention, new-generation warfare, without the employment of armed combats, using mostly influence and coercion, by means of covert operations. Abridged and adapted. The original English text is available at http://www.naa.mil.lv/~/media/NAA/AZPC/Publikacijas/PP%2002-2014.ashx. Even though the study came into being in April 2014, the editors regard it worthy to be published, being timeless and with general validity. |
The Famous Czechoslovak LegionNonreviewed - OtherJUDr. et PhDr. Jaroslav Padrnos, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 152-169 The Czechoslovak Legion was a revolutionary armed force formed abroad that had come into being during World War I. It is said that without this force, there would be no independent Czechoslovakia. Without a foreign political, diplomatic and military resistance of the Czechoslovak National Council, headed by Prof. Dr. Tomáš Garrigue Masaryk, Doc. Dr. Edvard Beneš, and Brig. Gen. Milan Rastislav Štefánik, there would be no Czechoslovak Legion. Even in the hard times, the large majority of legionnaires were always true to the Czech and the Slovak nation during World War II, and after the war. But after the February 1948, those nations, officially represented by the Communist Party of Czechoslovakia, were not true to them. |
Topical Reflections over Nations Bounded by International LawNonreviewed - OtherJUDr. et PhDr. Jaroslav Padrnos, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 3-7 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.23.2014.02.003-007 Respecting rules of international laws is indispensable to guarantee a peace balance among forces of all states. It ought to be in their own interest. By and large, the flagrant breaking of those rules and acts of aggression correspond directly to the military power of individual states. Examples are abundant. This essay deals with the definition of aggression that was adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on December 14, 1974. |
NATO Structural Reforms in Practical TermsReviewed - ReviewIng. Josef Procházka, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 8-21 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.23.2014.02.008-021 NATO has been permanently adapting to new outside and inside challenges. Lisbon summit in 2010 is one of the very important milestones in this transformation endeavour. Since 2010, the Alliance has embarked on meaningful structural reforms with the aim to enhance effectiveness, improve efficiency of all NATO entities and make the Alliance fit for its purpose. The main objective of this article is to introduce the scope of NATO reforms and their expected outcomes. Furthermore, this article will assess real achievements and draw at least some lessons from a reform implementation process in order to establish best practice in reforming complex organisations. |
Operational Approach Development: Application of Operational Art Theory in Practice - 2nd partReviewed - ReviewIng. Ján Spišák, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 65-75 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.23.2014.02.065-075 The article deals with some aspects of applied theory of operational art within the operations planning process. It discusses the area of operational design concepts and suggests possible ways of this theory application in the process of operational approach development. The described theory is a sequel to the article published in this Military Review No. 1/2014. |
Common European Armed Forces: Reality, or Utopia?Reviewed - ReviewPlukovník gšt. Ing. Zdeněk PetrášVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 101-108 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.23.2014.02.101-108 The consequences of economic recession and their impact on national defence budgets can indeed heavily hamper the credibility of both NATO and the EU. A need for coping with budget restrictions and ongoing security crisis in the Ukraine re-opens the issue of common European armed forces as an effective tool for keeping security stability not only in Europe, but also around the world. However, the key issue is to what extent it is feasible to develop autonomous European armed forces operating independently of transatlantic allies, while there is a very strong NATO-EU interconnection in the area of military capability development. |
Development of Personnel of the Ministry of Defence in Career CoursesNonreviewed - OtherIng. Vojtěch Němeček, Ph.D., Ing. Jaroslav Kolkus, Ing. František MičánekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 117-127 Career education of the Ministry of Defence (MoD) personnel is a key component to meet requirements for qualifications. As these requirements are career growth conditions for career personnel, they are inherently connected with further promotion in rank. The MoD Concept of Personnel Development for 2012-2018 sets the direction of the educational development to achieve these qualification requirements. During the process of preparation of the career courses it was revealed that some system changes should be made due to implemented or planned changes within the legislative and source framework of the Ministry of Defence.This article describes the proposal of a new concept for training of personnel in the career courses. It was prepared by a project team headed by the Centre for Security and Military Strategic Studies at the Defence University. The article also shows the development of the situation since 2004, when the professionalization of the Armed Forces of the Czech Republic occurred. |
Japanese Missile Defence and its ImplicationsReviewed - ReviewMgr. Adam StrauchVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 22-32 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.23.2014.01.022-032 The main goal of the presented article is to evaluate the impact of Japanese missile defence development on the regional strategic stability in Northeast Asia. The goal is reached through an analysis of interaction between missile defence and roles of ballistic missiles in Chinese and North Korean strategies towards Japan, while also taking into account the alternative policies which Japan might have used in response to the ballistic missile threat. According to the analysis, the development of the Japanese missile defence does not degrade strategic stability in the discussed region. |
Selected Problems of Intelligence AnalysisReviewed - ReviewDoc. Ing. Oldřich Horák, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 121-127 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.23.2014.01.121-127 The ability to deliver information about an incident, long time before it has happened, puts intelligence analysts into the very first line of fight against the threat of terrorism, extremism, proliferation, or activities of alien services. The article deals with some aspects of intelligence research that often influence the value of final reports, presented to their consumers. It analyses intelligence database designated for its end users. It simultaneously reflects the question of indications and warnings against opponent's surprise attacks. Last but not least, the purpose of this article is both to attract the readers´ attention to this theme and also to start debate on the methods of predictions of future threats, drawn up by analysts´ teams, as their reports are not always suitably recognized by their end users. |

