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Summary of Security Com174 munity Views - Part One. Despite the fact that most of the predictions made in the early 20th century did not realized, there are still plenty of arguments for drawing security prognoses as the only method assessing synthetic alternatives of future progress. The future is not unequivocally determined, as the all comprising development is strongly influenced by subjective motives. We must have scenarios upon which we can act, operate, namely in the field of security. The government ought to set clearly our security agenda, where and why we are going to make possible military engagement. All further actions are developing from those prognoses, i.e. buying tanks, helicopters, parachutes, armoured vehicles, etc. The first part of this security study covers several predictions containing even some controversial visions. They are based upon the opinion survey done among members of Czech military community. The field of investigation comprises EU, US, North Korea, Iran, Iraq, Africa, Asia, even hypothetic Russia-China conflict, terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, and the like.

The author follows the mainstream economics, i.e. leading economics of defence policy, ranging from economics of defence in the nuclear age, via economics of Iraq conflict, to current fight against terrorism. New paradigm must be drawn, taking into account source management, the distribution of economics weight of individual national economies of all countries participating in the fight against global terrorism.

The specificity of defence as a public estate rather complicates necessary changes in public expense management, namely those chapters designated for the armed forces. One of prospective tools for defence economic management is controlling, which is more than mere control. It coordinates planning, information flows, it concentrates on final effects. The authoress explains and depicts how this method is working in the German Federal Forces (Bundeswehr).

Even though many activities related to intelligence and intelligence network after the end of Cold War were released and have become commonplace, classified matters are still in the centre of public's interest. In discussions, experts use various terms tied with espionage or counter-intelligence, but real differences are not too high. In the armed forces (in the frame of NATO) this question was solved by issuing the manual AJP-2, Allied Joint Intelligence, CounterIntelligence and Security Doctrine (NATO 2003). This article summarises key and basic terms used in intelligence services, including new theoretical concepts from this field. As the author writes in the introductory chapter, many experts, namely in civilian and academic fields use the same terminology, but their explanation differs. They use different definitions reflecting diverse circumstances under which they came into existence. The article was written namely as a contribution to interagency communication, among civilian and professional experts, in time when the overall security concept is changing, when military power is not the only tool to avert wide spectrum of security threats of 21st century.

The return of Russia as a power that begins again to partake in political agenda of present-day world raises the necessity to reflect its inner developments in the background of its recent history. There are six key factors that substantionally influence the position of Russia in the world: large sources of raw materials (pipelines); outstanding military capacities (the world's second nuclear potential); high level of general education; wide scientific and research base; permanent membership in UN Security Council and in the Group of Eight (G-8); deciding influence in the near neighbourhood. The study comes to the conclusion that Russia-in the horizon of 2020-will belong among world's leading actors, together with the US, the EU, China, and Islamic world. Russia will be able to of enforce its foreign and security goals, both in post-Soviet areas and in key regions in Europe, Asia and in the Great Near East. As such, it will probably get into conflict with the US. The priority tasks of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will rest on maintaining nuclear parity with the US and building capacities for asymmetrical operations.

Economy of production, economies to scale, in civilian sector are quite different than economy pattern in defence sphere, as specifying the allocation of sources for the Army of the Czech Republic is not based on exact calculation of costing, payments as we could not observe the substantial terms of comparable partial and overall expenses. At present, we are not fully able to compare defence outputs, nor effecitivity of spent sources.

This second and closing part of this security study covers decades before the half of this century. The leading role in prevention and fight against armed conflicts will rest namely upon intelligence services. It is also expected the mass use of nonlethal weapons. The US will stay as the only leading superpower, minority expects a plurality model, i.e. the US will be only first among the equals. Some predicts the collapse of the EU. The Army of the Czech Republic ought to achieve full operational potential around the year 2012. It will take part in multinational missions. The Alliance armies should have 8 per cent of their capacities fully operable abroad. Under the preventive strategy, the regions of their prospective deployment will be in bordering countries around Europe, areas around the Eastern Mediterranean, or in the Far East. More or less, one problem remains still open: whether foreign deployments of the ACR really correspond to the interests and needs of the Czech Republic.

Those three E are much in use both in official documents and mass media. Dozens of defence officials use them every day, but actual outputs present that they do not know the key essence of 3E, or they are not aware of how to put them into practice. This article would like to help them to make understand the practical application of basic principles of 3E in practise. The reason of this gap, according to the author, lies in insufficient ties between theoretical and executive spheres of defence sector.

The subject of this comprehensive study: the main features of global risk society can be embodied by ecology crises, global financial crises, threat of terrorism. The article is presented as a report to military community and audience, with the underlying focus on terrorism. The author is mapping the global future in the first two decades of this century. As a small country we must pay attention to the developments in the worlds leading powers: the U.S., China, Russia, last but not least, within the EU. Those themes also present individual headings of this study. He treats energy, demography, peace, security, good neighbourly relations, cooperation between states that are most desirable goals we want to reach. In a way, as the main actor of worlds security situation till 2020 is identified Islamist terrorism (radical Islamists, Al Qaeda). At the end Mr. Balabán recalls the former "Security Policy of the Czech Republic" released ten years ago, reminding us the necessity to be prepared for the worst scenarios.

Security system is an institutional frame for the creation and implementation of Czech security policy. It is closely tied with NATO, the EU, and other international institutions, which enables its compatibility and interoperability within European security systems. The Czech government prepared The Concept of Security System of the Czech Republic that put emphasis on its effectivity and simplified cooperation and coordination among individual components of security structures. The concept was based upon the analysis of Czech security system, covering events after 11/9 2001, NATO Summit 2002, the Floods 2002, etc. Presented principles of the optimalization of current security system of the CR incorporate key proposals of legislative character that ought to be processed in two years; partial measures will be implemented step by step. The author proposes to incorporate mentioned steps into amendments to defence and recruitment laws, laws dealing with emergency or crisis situations. Such amendments are to be offered till the end of 2007.

Economy Management by Ing. Svatopluk Kunc. The purpose of this article is to explain the essence of above mentioned economic categories, their linkage to cost accounts, accountancy, to characterize accounting items as an important signpost, to clear mutual ties between the so-called economic rationality and the position of a manager in armed forces. It is not easy task to find unifying point of view. For that purpose the author explains methods of controlling, outsourcing, process management, total quality management, balanced scorecard, value management, etc.

What is Necessary to Consider in the Process of Organization Structures Construction, Military Forces Equipment and Training in ACR, after the Ending of "Conception" by Ing. Antonín Krásný, CSc. The very welcomed "Concept of Development of the Professional Army of the Czech Republic and the Mobilization of Armed Forces of the Czech Republic" had to be revised because of the lack financial means. This fact influenced a lot of live of our army. Additional career officers were to leave his services; military material, vehicles were further reduced. At present, we have to balance our military strength with security demands reflecting running changes in world's security surrounding. The main aim of the article is to describe development of security environment in the Central Europe. It considers decision mechanisms reform in NATO and transformations of its military forces structures. It highlights an impact of demographic, technological, institutional changes and changes in value system of defence assurance of the CR. We must still bear in mind that for us, NATO alliance, supplemented by the EU structures, is the main tool of our security.

The purpose of the paper is to explain some of the connections among military and public spendings and its influence on forming fiscal policy in the 90s. Security doctrines influence national military concepts, level of defence expenditures, and developments of other spheres of public spending. Defence and other items are parts of spending budget, constituting government's fiscal policy, and vice versa; the economy in respective countries influences defence policy. The author treats the question how Czech expansive fiscal policy reached the limits of its growth, how it was reflected in defence policy. The key military reform proved to be inevitable; the reform of armed forces demanded the reform of civil administration. He comes to the conclusion that in our country, government spendings are not a stimulus of economy growth, even not in a short time period, that it is economy growth that determines public spendings, so does the defence budget.

The article presents the results of pedagogical experiment in shooting from smallarms at training on shooting trainers, as indispensable instruments for the preparation of military professionals in indoor and outdoor shooting. Computer-generated simulators enable to experience the practice of shooting both for beginners training, as well as for marksmen, and sharpshooters. The trainers we we've developed in our army are as follows: shooting trainer EVJ-91 (optical, infrared), EVJ-94 (advanced, computer aided), EVJ-94/M (five targets), UNIST-94 (screen 2x3 m, VCR, UNIST-97/L
(laser emitter, live shooting), optical shooting range OS-1, OS-3 (small arms practice, up to 50 m, computer-aided,
laser emitter), optical target range TOS-1 (combat fire arms practice, computer-aided evaluation), optical range POS-1 (target devices are replaced by a film screen, VCR), Minitos Duo (tested), combat video-system Dicrosec PSC (interactive), or SOT-1 (rotary targets). Even though those trainers save time and money, we must still bear in mind that live shooting can't be replaced by any trainer.

It is extraordinary important decisionmaking, because of fered products determine the successfulness of arranged contracts. For evaluating suppliers we use the so-called scoring model, in which we specify evaluating criteria and assign the weights. To prevent challenging accepted resolution, our decision ought to be supported by the analysis of the third party. This method is called S.P.A. - Supplier Potential Analysis.

The primary aim of the method Hazard & Impact Index (H&I Index) is to enable the commander to evaluate possible negative impacts of military exercise on environment, and quickly and in an operative way interpret whether intended military activities can be a threat to the conditions or surroundings, in which the units are employed. The authors propose several tables for the comparison of environmental groups (soils, forests, climates) with forces movements. The method still undergoes the development. The evaluated numbers are set only for a mechanized company of the Army of the Czech Republic in our local surrounding. But in the near future the authors predict its extension to all organic units of NATO stationed in European continent. The article is a sequel to the article by the same authors in Vojenské rozhledy, No 1 /2006.

This new generation war could be characterized by an emphasis on nonstate actors, by political and psychological forms of attacks that directly influence opponents. Other characteristics are as follows: extensive refugee flows, violence, transnational criminal aspects. Several factors will impact the nature, frequency and character of "small wars" in the 21st century. Failed/failing states, urbanization, diffusion of actors, communications technology, technological diffusion, religion, and ultra-terrorism. Clausewitz's fundamental appreciation for the primacy of political objectives as the guiding object in war remains relevant to "small wars" as does to interstate conflicts. The problem for today's strategist or policy maker is determining exactly what has changed, how the various means of stratecraft need to be adapted to the specific contingency at hand (according to The Journal of Strategic Studies, 6/2005).

The China's impact on world affairs is growing and will grow further in decades to come. Those years will be critical for Taiwan, and for its relationship with other states. Three related factors determine the texture of this interaction: the policies evolving in Beijing, internal developments on Taiwan, and the international environment. Beijing has offered Taipei several proposals for reunification. The proposals, including the recent "one state, two systems" proposal, allow Taipei to maintain its social and economic system, its armed forces and its unofficial ties with foreign countries. China's grand strategy is to make war while avoiding the battle. Therefore, Taiwan is to be persuaded that the acceptance of "One China" principle is vitally important for preventing the Taiwanese independence. Otherwise, People's Armed Forces will open an invasion to Taiwan by three successive attacks: (1) high precise medium-range ballistic missiles DF-21C with the aim to suppress air defence; (2) the second stroke would be massive attack with short-range precise missiles; (3) the last stroke ought to be done by cruise missiles. This essay is adapted from articles by Mary C. Fitzgerald and Eric A. McVadon, Armed Forces Journal 11/2005.

For many years we have been talking about simulators/trainers. The first phase of this process ended in 1998 by publishing "The Concept of Introducing Simulation and Trainer Technology". This year, in 2005, two simulation centres, in Brno and Vyškov, are opened. We elaborated new programmes for the preparation of mechanised and armour units. In these days the Instruction Book is printed and very soon it will be distributed into respective units and institutions of ACR. The author is a strong supporter of exploiting simulators. He knows from his own experiences that the quality of training is much better and soldier's skills grow in high speed. To understand this question better, the author enumerates several time-schedules for simulator training and recommends few time-tested procedures and methods of exercises. He believes that once you try to use simulators, you will see how advantageous this method is. The simulators can be used not only for practicing combat situations, but also for operations other than war. But this theme will be treated next time.

Developing Czech national defence system is based on long-term predictions of potential security threatsandplanningofresourcesavailablefordefence, including defence spending plans. This paper analyses the issue of current value of defence expenditures. It attempts to give an answer to the question whether defence requires a specific price index or if common civilian indicators like GDP deflator or consumer price index can be used in defence.

The end of conscription (i. e. national service) is accompanied by a dozen of economy implications that ought to be respected. Among others, there is a problem of non-military activities being done by soldiers during their compulsory military service. Supposedly, many of those activities can be performed by private entrepreneurship. One of possible solutions is the socalled "outsourcing". Our Army might buy services and supplies outside the forces, in civilian sector. Similar practices should reduce Army's expenses for labour, outlays for materials, maintenance, etc. Outsourcing directs public expenditures to places where labour and material costs are lower than in the ACR. But, we must not forget, there is one precondition; the public sector must be factually economical, with low expenses in competitive surrounding.

The authors depict the development of outsourcing methods in US armed forces, its origins, and sources. Collected data are accompanied by experiences from British and German armies. The American Office of Management and Budget (OMB) issued in 1966 Circular No A-76 (lately several times revisited) to define procedures how to set rules which commercial activities are to be done within the frame of armed forces or in private sector. Backed by a number of literatures, magazines and newspapers (Air Force Journal of Logistics, Air Force Magazine, Armed Forces Journal, Defense Nationale, Washington Technology, Wehrtechnik, etc.) authors analyse several outsourcing processes. They present both positive and negative results, including open or hidden problems of A-76 policy (e.g. business process outsourcing). For the Army of the CR they recommend to overcome above mentioned problems by creating the corrective authority, similar to the British PPPU (PublicPrivate Partnership Unit).

Wastes resulted from military exercise and their negative influences are imminent risks for our environment. To eliminate this, first we have to make the classification of wastes and secondly their index evaluation. The indexing can frame negative potential influence of wastes even before actual start of the exercise, so that we can evaluate negative impacts and arrange preventive measures beforehand. With using tablets and charts, the article depicts the process of classification and index appraisal of wastes, originating during military exercise. The method is being developed at the Defence University in Brno and was presented in front of Environmental Training Working Group (NTG/ ASG) and consulted with individual representative of Alliance nations. However Hazard Impact Index method is developed for testing purpose within a mechanised company of the Czech Ground Forces, ACR. Another step is the creation of algorithm for the conversion of index values for higher organic units and levels of the Army of the Czech Republic.

The practice of a company sending work to outside factories to reduce production costs is called outsourcing. Outsourcing is one of many methods that might help defence department to fulfil a number of various tasks that either can't be accomplished within the armed forces or such work or services can be obtained at low-costs in civil sector. The authors propose several practicable techniques using dynamic outsourcing model to identify prospective services to support given transformation process.

Security and the protection of health form one key item that must be observed by both employer and employee. The employer has to provide such devices or outfits; the employee has the obligation to use them (Act 65/1965 Code). The protective equipments are categorized within the EU. Even though this categorization is not obligatory, it is generally used because such principles are in accord with used national norms. The norms are valid also within the Army of the Czech Republic. This article is to inform officers and commanders about approved norms. During practical exercises and work, both civilian employees and soldier have to be equipped by items corresponding respective paragraphs in Civic Code of Laws (above mentioned Act 65/1965) or Governmental Rule No 495/02 on cleaning, washing and disinfective agents. Several photos of protective outfits accompany the article.

This article is a sequel to the previous disputes over financial management within the Czech Armed Forces. The origins of the first polemic article lay in gaining facts for research work, arranged by the Faculty of Economics and Management, Defence University, "Allocation and Management of Defence Sources of the CR and the Formation of Economic Thinking in the ACR". The system of planning, programming and budgeting (PPBS) was introduced into Czech forces several years ago, but the it did not worked in a way it was supposed. There were many deficiencies the PPB system suffered from. Unfortunately, the author lacks sufficient data to evaluate properly the performance of this system. He has to combine diverse data sources, booklets, statistics, data releases, to make accurate picture of a day-to-day financial military administration. In his opinion, the system is not transparent enough. He appeals for clear figures, released e.g. on army interned pages, to avert accusation of wasting public sources ...168

Using the example of medium-term planning of development and activities of defence department, the article demonstrates one of possible ways of using the so-called 3E methods. The Czech def inition of 3E is based upon the Act on Financial Control, Control of Public Expenditures, Regulation ISO 9001-2001, and Methodical Instruction MF CR (CHJ- 10). The author compares them with e.g. Financial Management Policy Manual JSP 462, MoD, London, UK.