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The purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable of the worst case scenario for the global future post-modern society. The analysis addresses the main features of global risk society, human suffering, and loss of life from natural catastrophes, man-made catastrophes, economic losses, peak-oilcrises impacts, threat of terrorism, radical Islam, fragile states, etc. Important are the consequences of the end of the Vestfal system and global climate change. There is substantial evidence to indicate that significant global warming will occur during the 21st century. The research suggests that once temperature rises above some threshold, adverse weather conditions could develop relatively abruptly. Drought persists for most of the decade in critical agricultural regions and in the water resource regions for major population centres in Europe. As fertility shrivels, societies get older-and much of Europe are set to get older than any functioning societies have ever been. To avoid collapse, European nations will need to take immigrants at a rate no stable society ever attempted. Europe will be significantly more Islamic.

In the Czech Republic, the schooling of security experts is broken into fragments, i.e. into many fields of study, which go beyond security politics. The state of affairs can't be regarded as satisfactory. The first step is the Resolution of Czech Security Council No. 32/2007, Common Minimum for Security Experts, which put a proposal to introduce security issues into teaching programmes in universities and institutions of further education, so that such institutions could obtain accreditation in this field. This minimum is specified namely for undergraduate study; graduated security studies ought to be more specialized. Political scientists involved in the study of security policy should attempt to devise solutions for problems of public concern. Security study covers issues such as non-military threats and risks, proliferation, pollution, natural disasters, mass migration, economy risks. It is tied with international relations, foreign policy and national security strategies.

It is not too often we could meet such a comprehensive monograph, dealing with security problems. Among such books belongs a book by Jan Eichler, with the same title, published by Charles University Prague, 2007. The most relevant chapter, Wars waged by the U.S. and its allies after the start of global terrorism, offers a provocative question, whether democratic nations, indirectly and unintentionally, gave rise to the upsurge of antipathy amongst the states with different political constitution, resulting in acts of terror? The ambiguous assessments of American wars in Afghanistan and Iraq seem to support author?s view. According to the reviewer, dr. A. Rašek, the author is wrong about the role land forces after the RMA?Revolution in Military Affairs. Without ground forces we are not able to win today?s asymmetrical warfare. The large part of book deals with conflicts not very familiar in the Czech Republic: Ethiopian-Eritrean war, disturbances in Somalia (operation Restore Hope), Burundi, Rwanda, Congo, Sierra Leone, Srí Lanka, Cashmere, Nepal, Haiti, Bolivia, and Colombia.

The theme of this study is a prognostic reply to the anticipated rise of mentioned two Asian powers from the point of international relations. Their growing power will precipitate consecutive results-the end of American leading role and coming multiple world. Will it produce world's stability or security threats? The author presents several scenarios. All take note of 9/11 attacks and a possible crash of two form of capitalism, democratic in the West and authoritarian in China and Russia. India has a special position. The economic success of those systems is a great chance for humane rights and civil liberties. World's dominance will be divided among the U.S., China, partly the EU, with strong position of regional powers, India, Japan, Indonesia, Iran, South African Union, Egypt, Brazil, Mexico and others. Russia will lose his superpower position, its internal economic and ethnical problems make it weak, and therefore Russia will attempt to form military coalition with China, which will lead to new world's bipolarity.

In NATO, here are many common items in welfare benefits, and there are different ones. Authoress depicts military social welfare in the CR, Slovakia, Germany, France, Poland, Hungary. The final part of this article compares systems of military benefits of mentioned countries. The authoress enumerates various conditions to be fulfilled, so that soldiers were entitled for welfare or retirement benefits. In nearly all countries, veteran?s pensions are regarded as the substitute for deferred, postponed pay. Retirement pays have its source in the last soldier?s salary. In the Czech Republic, retirement pays are based upon serviceman?s average best income in a calendar year, before he leaves the army, the time he served in the army, and its real income. Czech veteran?s social security scheme is separated from general (civil) social security system, as there some special military benefits that can?t be taken over by civil authorities.

This year we marked the 10th anniversary of our full membership in NATO. We've verified that the nation can become a "full fledged member" in eight or ten years at earliest. Signing the treaty, you became "only" a freshman. You must learn everything, from "consensus building" to forming informal coalition. The author of this article, Deputy of the Czech Permanent Representative to NATO, summarizes the history of fulfilling the membership's prerequisites and following difficult process of implementation of fundamentals and requirements, e.g. the so-called NATO legal acquis (Status of Forces Agreement), Planning and Review Process, setting Force Goals, fixing Identification Friend or Foe on Mi-21 aircraft assigned for Air Policing, problems with developing home infrastructure for Host Nation Support. We joined common security planning, took part in NATO Security Investment Programme and Conference of National Armaments Directors. But today's organization is quite different that used to be, the role and missions have changed. We must be prepared to meet them too.

It is evident that Barack Obama diverges from Bush's pre-emptive strategy. There are changes in style and contents. Obama begins to direct American policy more towards diplomatic negotiations instead underlining military strength. It is evident namely in proposed negotiations with Iran and in case of Russia, where he wants to overcome cooling down after Russia-Georgia clashes and gas crisis. He insists on avoiding unnecessary conflicts and puts stress on good relations with allies and building new partnerships. He is going to withdraw soldiers from Iraq and in spite of problems in Afghanistan to reduce U.S. military budget. Even though Obama wants to maintain American world's leadership, there are some signs of partial changes in American foreign policy, e.g. his orientation towards Asia suggests first signs of multilateral approach of post-American era. The author also mentions the question of "American radar" in the Czech Republic, the fate of which depends on Iran's nuclear power programme.

In recent history, German armed forces have been transformed into a modern, international recognized force, so has its logistics. Readiness became a major issue and soldiers suddenly had to be prepared for a broad variety of international missions, predictably supported by military logistics that newly cooperates with a private sector. The main logistics control and management centre is situated in the port city Wilhelmshaven. The Centre is responsible for planning logistics operations, their coordination both home and abroad. The newly created department for supply chain management is going to streamline supplies, to increase efficiency of the whole supply process. By means of several schemes the authors explain flows of materiel and supply routes tied with civilian companies (e.g. HIL GmbH).

It is a point at which attacking forces are unable to continue their attack or even defend themselves, because do casualties, shortages of fuel, ammunition and rations, and sheer physical exhaustion. This sequel article deals with the theory of the operational art focusing on the culminating point operational concept. The article emanates from Carl von Clausewitz's ideas and concepts described in his book "On War", doctrinal publications analysis and study projects of the operational art theorists. It treats conditions influencing achievement of the culminating point on single levels of war-strategic, operational and tactical and highlights coherences and factors having fundamental influences on culmination. The article is accompanied by several graphs describing this theory in detail. Key words: Culmination, Culminating Point, Zeroing, Intelligence Preparation of the Battlespace, Campaign Planning and Developing Operations.

This article is discussing the role of the Internet in the Islamic terrorist movement. It describes how the nature of the Internet provides the perfect medium for terrorism. Major terrorist organizations now have their own production capability, ranging from video capture, to video editing, to distribution, but, these organizations also have an advanced understanding of the concepts of influence, information warfare, and the power of targeted messages. This is further highlighted by the fact that among al Qaeda's original organizational structure was a committee dedicated to publicity and the media. The internet plays the role as a means of propaganda for recruitment and fund-raising, shaping public opinion in the Muslim world, terrorist training and instruction, operational planning for attacks, communication and open source information.

This opening study is written by two authors, members of Centre for Social and Economic Strategies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University Prague, which is an interdisciplinary research and education unit engaged in the development of theory, methodology and practice of exploring possible futures, and the application of analyses and forecasts in decision making. The authors propose to supplement prognostic scenarios by the so-called wild cards that represent something unpredictable, extra players or actors taking part in a global politics. They compare wild cards of 2001 with the present-day situation, and then predict state of affairs till 2040, among others, the islamisation of Europe and hispanisation of the United States. The purpose of this is to promote dialogues between military and security experts, politicians, civil servants, civil sector activists, as well as individual citizens.

The SALT agreements seem to be outdated, nonetheless the current discussion on the U.S. missile defence systems must be perceived in its complexity and theoretical framework, with AMB treaty as a cornerstone. The article suggests that ABM treaty and Interim Agreement, forming together the outcome of SALT negotiations, demonstrate that rational decisions are fully compatible with arms control system and realist approaches to the international relations. The author supposes that cooperation and mutual trust can be achieved through negotiations and perception of other participants. He also takes into account the impact of Soviet nuclear build-up in 1960s is and its consequences. The important conclusion can be derived from this fact: arms control should be expected more in times of military balance rather that the domination of one world's actor. Key words: disarmament, arms control, mutual assured destruction, and antiballistic missile systems.

This article begins with a theoretical discussion of the culminating point, for both the attack and defence. Key definitions and related concepts provided in Carl von Clausewitz's On War, Joint Publication 3-0, Doctrine for Joint Operations, and U.S. Army Field Manual 100-5, Operations, are discussed in detail. These sources provide many of the factors that can cause a force to reach culmination, and serve as a basis for understanding the difficulties involved in trying to determine the time and place of culmination. Other current factors attributing to culmination are discussed, and recommendations are offered to help operational commanders and planners to zero in on this elusive point. It is of the utmost importance that one's own, and the enemy's culminating point be identified with the highest possible degree of accuracy during the planning phase of a major operation or campaign.

The study analyzes the key features of Russian policies in the late 2000s and their prospective developments. It is above all the rise of Russia's economic power, boosted by the favourable rising trend of energy prices (oil and gas) that has helped to resume again the position of one of the key world powers, obsessively pursuing its geopolitical interests in a new emerging multipolar world. This also determines its relations with other major global actors, e.g. the U.S., the EU, and China (outlined in this article). As far as military budget is concerned, it is increasing. Russia has overcome a long period of stagnancy. After 2007, they re-established strategical patrol flights off Russian territory; great effort is aimed at power projection, as a means to secure natural resources beyond Russian boarders. The study is closed by Russia's geopolitical prospects till the year 2020. and its Anticipated Development

The basic question of Army transformation was the fact that it was not constituted upon the statehood principle that gives precedence to politicking individual parties. The ultimate goal of this transformation was to build forces loyal to democratic republic, but during the last ten years the top personnel at the Ministry of Defence changed several times, leaving the Army with restricted means, without precise laid down tasks and goals. Uncontrolled interventions into forces structure, reducing numbers of military personnel, lead to balance on the verge of collapse. The basic goal to develop Czech national security and defence policies did not fell short. Army was transforming itself, initially under the management of former generals and later under civilian control, especially after 1991. The division of the armed forces after the split-up of the state at the turn of 1992 went very smoothly, with good discipline. The transformation has been influenced above all by the newly adopted legislation, accession to NATO and to the European Union, participation in missions abroad and professionalization of the Czech armed forces. The whole process has been facilitated by the acceptance and implementation of a broader concept of security.

As we look at some organization as the system of mutually tied and connected processes, se can see that every process is specifically defined. Then key processes constitute the mission of organization (the very core of its existence), which are further divided into several sub-processes, i.e. risk management is subdivided into: establishing the context, risk identification (risk sources), risk analysis, risk evaluation, risk management and risk management re-evaluation (its effectiveness), compiled by the so-called stockholders. Enumerating various risks, the authors conclude that state administration is influenced by two categories of risks: from outside and inside. They have impact both on strategical level and operational one. At the same time, most of elements of organization (employees, material, activities) can present assets, on the other side might present inner risks.

In October 2008, under the auspices of the First Deputy Chief of the ACR General Staff Maj.Gen. Josef Prokš and Col. Jiří Gajdoš, Chief of Czech Armed Forces Chemical Corps, 3rd International CBRN Commandant and Commanders Conference took place in Liberec, dealing with the CBRN threats and variants of protection against them. The Conference was organized by Force Development Division-Operations Section Chemical Corps Department in cooperation with Centre of Excellence in Vyškov, 31st CBRN brigade in Liberec, NBC Defence Institute in Vyškov, Centre of Biological Protection at Těchonín, Chemical Corps Department of Joint Forces in Olomouc, Czech NBC Team, and last but not least VOP-026 in Šternberk. The conference was regarded as a meeting of heads of chemical corps both NATO nations and friendly countries. Further information: Pavel.Otrisal@unob.cz.

The administrative culture is something like "mind set" of "software" of organization, its philosophy, a part of which is the so-called economization. The process of economization of defence sphere will lead to further decrease in numbers, cutting down redundant materiel, supplies. Such economy measures should produce savings in terms of hundred millions Czech crowns, side by side with the increased potential of the whole military organization. The authors introduce Activities in Defence Sector the CAF model (Common Assessment Framework), based upon the Model Excellence of the European Foundation for Quality Management, expressed by the following formula: factors involved equals personnel times activities (education) times facilities (investments). There are some similarities between army management and business administration, so the economy instructions ought to be part of overall military education and training.

Military professional terminology is a special vocational vocabulary used within armed forces, usually only partially understood by outsiders. The author demonstrates several most notorious examples to draw attention of terminology specialists. They are special vocabularies of military and security affairs, such as human resources, integrated MoD, recruit, recruitment, air wing, air base, strategical/tactical levels, names of organizational military structures, battalion, company, regiment (in fact they differ from nation to nation) task force, defence planning and planning of defence, to name at least a few. In spite of several translated AAP publications, generally, those terms are used in a different way. The author calls for creating more cohesive terminology. He intentionally does not put his own proposals, he only appeals to leading military officials to enforce the unified and accurate military terminology. It is high time to solve this task, namely within the frame of a lifelong education of military personnel.

The change of security situation in the world, international ties and last but not least changes in operational environment, exploitation of new technologies are reflected by changes in defence planning, military organization, forces engagement and operational assessment. Time, flexibility, cooperation in coalition operations, interoperability in technology spheres play incommutable roles together with trained personnel. Command and control (C2) is self-contained system depending on many factors provided by the so-called System of Communication and Information. At present it is the very base for information collection, decision-making process, preparing variants of operation for both commander and his staff. Among others the author writes about Network Enabled Capability system introduced into Czech armed forces. C2 programme is also a part of educational curriculum at Defence University Brno.

Management by objectives works very well only if there is a rating and evaluation system of objectives. To form such organization one is not easy, especially when using aggregate objectives, combining many partial objectives of various levels. This article deals with the problem how to rate and evaluate this kind of aggregate objectives. The problem is explained in the enlistment goal 2008 of the Czech Armed Forces, which sets the number of volunteers joining the Czech Armed Forces in 2008. The key role here is played by the suitable gauges steering a level (percentage) reached. Thus, recruiting reflects manning the Czech forces by professional personnel in a given period (calendar year). The author proposes to run recruitment for military schools separate from enlistment for the army, i.e. to conceive this recruitment only as a practical goal.

The Czech Republic became involved in ISAF in 2002, among others we sent there both field hospital and field surgical team; later meteorological group, traffic control group with EOD team began to serve at the Kabul International Airport. In 2004, the 601st Special Force Group was engaged in Enduring Freedom operation, Czech soldiers served in German Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT), positive role was played by Czech Operational Mentoring and Liaison Team. Another successful mission was establishing PRT Logar, supporting social, economical development in this province. New common features of PRT, helicopter OMLT, EUPOL mission, partly SOG is the concentration on building Afghan capacities, namely ANSF (Afghan National Security Force) and public administration. Together with their deliberate support, it has multiplying effect, as assistance and training bring more effects than mere fulfilling standard military tasks, guarding e.g. Dutch base.

In 2007, Karolinum, Publishing House Charles University Prage, released the book "Chapters on Security" by renowned security experts and analysts Messrs Balabán, Duchek, and Stejskal. The authors deal with main components of Czech national security system: armed forces and police, integrated rescue system, intelligence services, municipal police and private security agencies (the role of which in national security system is underestimated). The book also describes the UN and other international organizations, NATO, EU and OSCE, together with their security strategies. The world state of affairs is serious, namely with the relation to terrorism after 9/11 2001 attacks. The old security concepts are being re-evaluated, simultaneously with new risks classification, e.g. in the context of the so-called Copenhagen school (theory originating in Copenhagen, Denmark). It is a descriptive publication, by its structure targeted above all for university students, but suitable for readers who are interested in security problems.

The autor responds to several articles published in our Military Review, namely by Prof. František Ochrana, Prof. František Božek, Brigadier Rudolf Urban, Prof. Miroslav Krč, in No. 4/2008, with special appreciation to critical articles by Ing. Jiří Dušek and Lt.Col. Ing František Růžička in the same issue. He tries to find out common denominators of those essays. There are three of them: economization tied with rationalization, risk management, and information compatibility. As necessary he regards to unite those denominators both at the level of decision making officials and at the level of their subordinated elements, by means of e.g. working teams as a guarantee of coordination, so that the adopted Long-term Vision of Defence Department could be actually realized.

The very modern trends in the forces of advanced countries are hiring private civilian companies, private enterprises, in everyday performance of armed forces. As this phenomenon is very frequent, the authors decided to go into its roots, to find a common cause of this fact. In the past, armies were closed societies, self-sufficient, independent from states. Today, gradually, soldiers became more concentrated on key military tasks and supporting functions are transferred to private companies. The German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) takes over mechanics used in private sector: it integrates economy dimension. Above all, it is transparency of bookkeeping, which ought to give evidence on savings in everyday life of forces. The Bundeswehr uses the so-called Market Testing, as a means of practical cooperation for engaging private capital. All those fact are cited as thoughprovoking.

Like hundreds of millions of other people, Islamic terrorists and their supporters use the Internet. In many ways, the Internet is a tool tailor-made for these Islamic extremists, who use it covertly and overtly to plan attacks, raise money, and spread anti-Semitic and anti-American propaganda written in English, Arabic, and other languages. There is sufficient information to believe that in the future, terrorists may even turn the Internet itself into a weapon, using it to wreak havoc on America's critical infrastructure. Because these militants are global, rather than being located in a single geographical area (Pakistan, Indonesia, Somalia, Iraq), the Internet provides them with a new and effective way to attain their goals. It may be difficult to catch extremists planning or coordinating an attack if they are using encryption, steganography, or some other method of hiding their online activities.

The article is focused on the Czech military bases during mission abroad and introduces new term "Life Cycle of Military Base". Every system has its own successive stages through which it passes; concept that compares the cyclical nature of organizations, systems, is called life cycle. The Reach-Back concept divides lifetime of the military base into seven phases: Assignment (task, goals), Preparation, Proposal (draft), Designing, Building, Running and Cancelling. The definition and description of all phases of the Life Cycle of Military Bases is an important contribution to solving series of problems connected with designing, building, running and cancelling of military bases during mission abroad. Dividing into separate sections contributes to the well-mastered supervision of base, as it indicates factual structures of individual stages of daily routine of the base and thus it lowers the risks of neglecting some activities.

As a former Austrian officer he was chosen for recruiting volunteers for the so-called Czech and Slovak Army in Russia. After the WWI he became a member of the newly created Czechoslovak Army. During Nazi occupation of Czech lands, he was arrested for his resistance activities. Fortunately, in prison he suffered from typhoid fever, so he was taken into hospital and therefore he was not executed. When WW II ended, he was falsely accused of leaking important information by military counter-intelligence which was firmly in hands of oncoming communists. After interrogations he was senteced for "active fight against the Bolsheviks" in Russian civil war. The Soviet security authorities deported him together with other condemned persons to Austrinan city Baden and then to the U.S.S.R. At the age of 60 he was sentenced to 25 years of imprisonment. In 1954 he died. After the Velver Revolution he was rehablitaded and promoted to the rank of Major General.