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The purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable of the worst case scenario for the global future post-modern society. The analysis addresses the main features of global risk society, human suffering, and loss of life from natural catastrophes, man-made catastrophes, economic losses, peak-oilcrises impacts, threat of terrorism, radical Islam, fragile states, etc. Important are the consequences of the end of the Vestfal system and global climate change. There is substantial evidence to indicate that significant global warming will occur during the 21st century. The research suggests that once temperature rises above some threshold, adverse weather conditions could develop relatively abruptly. Drought persists for most of the decade in critical agricultural regions and in the water resource regions for major population centres in Europe. As fertility shrivels, societies get older-and much of Europe are set to get older than any functioning societies have ever been. To avoid collapse, European nations will need to take immigrants at a rate no stable society ever attempted. Europe will be significantly more Islamic.

In November 2007, under the auspices of Lieutenant-General Vlastimil Picek, Chief of the General Staff ACR, there was the 4th international conference held in Prague, dealing with command, control in Network Enabled Capability environment: NEC-IV. The conference was organized by the Institute for Strategical Studies, Defence University Brno, in cooperation with the Department Communications and Information Systems, DoD, and the Department of the Development of Forces-Operational Department, DoD, last but not least with a civilian Carolina Agency, as NEC principles could be utilized even in civil sector. The conference is regarded as a step from theory to practice, both in the field of education, preparation and practical exercises supported by simulators and trainers. In the immediate future, we must develop the integrated environment for EU Battle Groups, brigade task force, covering the whole operational spectrum, so that we could reach a synergy effect in education, pedagogy, science and research.

Backed by a heap of articles from the Western Press, author summarizes the recent conflict in the Caucasus. Georgia's position astride the western access route to the Caspian sea's energy reserves and Central Asia give it geopolitical significance. Moreover, Georgia represents exactly what Russia does not want to see on its borders: a country both independent and increasingly democratic. Russian government instead seeks submission, preferably by authoritarian rulers that it can manipulate. In summer 2008, Russia invaded South Ossetia, aimed at locking Georgia out of NATO. Moscow's military operation has far-reaching implications. To leaders in Ukraine and the Baltic states, it sends signals that it seeks to re-establish control in the former Soviet space. How should the West react? The author is a supporter of improving Russia's behaviour by mutual dialogues, negotiations. He sets an example: dispassionate, non-ideological talks between the former Soviet leader M. Gorbachev and an American president George Bush Sr.

The author of this article considers the prospective changes in the development, character, missions and tasks of the Army of the Czech Republic, Those changes are deduced from the changing security environment and long-term development trends. To meet new demands, we must continue in building interoperability and compatibility. The battlefield operations will be planned and controlled by the systems of "Network Centric Warfare" and "Reach Back Operations". It will not be necessary for a commander to be in physical contact with operational theatre. Electronical high speed intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, reconnaissance will enable the high pace of military operations (together with common analyses, integration of collected data, evaluation of enemy's intents and activities). This will enable to build a credible defence, in the frame of collective security system, hand in hand with other NATO allies.

The Slovak author Štefan Volner wrote a book called The Wars of the 21st Century (Zvolen 2007). After the break-up of common Czechoslovak state we promised each other that the relations between Czechs and Slovaks will not change, but after fifteen years we see that we are really departed, when speaking about Slovak home policy, about Slovak security questions, its army. Štefan Volner who often publishes in the review Vojenské rozhledy helps to cover this gap and thus our military public can follow his scholarly works dealing with security and defence. In reviewed book he enumerates the causes of 21st century wars and analyses four basic paradigms: civilizational; Toffler's third wave; realistic approach; and finally thermodynamics, dealing with non-linear causes of war. Asymmetric wars came into existence as the roots of wars are asymmetric. It is not difficult to win the war, but more difficult is to guarantee post-war reconstruction.

The second part of this short serial deals with the theory of the operational art focusing on the centre of gravity (COG). The article emanates from Carl von Clausewitz's ideas, doctrinal publications analysis and many study projects of the operational art theorists. The author especially aims on disunity and heterogeneity of comprehension of the centre of gravity theory in confrontation of contemporary doctrinal publications and original Clausewitz's theory. He compares operational manuals (those of U.S. and NATO), and finds similarities concerning characteristics, capabilities or localities from which a military force, nation or alliance, derives its freedom of action, physical strength or will to fight. Finally, he himself defines enemy's centre of gravity and highlights coherences that can affect fulfilling political and military objectives in current and future military operations.

The article deals with the state of English e-learning on the premises of the University of Defence. The authoress introduces some pages of the electronic materials used for the General Staff Course as an example of modern methods of learning English. She explains the basic principles of the work with these exercises. There is also mentioned the military English interactive CD-Rom that was published last year and is used as the electronic support for learning military English; and also a new CD-Rom that is being developed now is mentioned because it will be used for the General Staff Course participants as well. Because of the fact that Czech military personnel are expected to serve in multinational operations, this interactive CD-Rom will make their language training easier. In the last part of the article, the opinions of the General Staff Course participants on using e-learning materials are given on the basis of questionnaires.

The key fact is that changes in the political, economic, social, and technical spheres are making it possible for a small group bound together by a cause to use new technologies to challenge nation-states. 4GW (Fourth Generation Warfare) uses all the shifts from a mechanical to an information/electronic society to maximize the power of insurgency. Fifth-generation warfare (5GW) will result from the continued shift of political and social loyalties to causes rather than nations. It will be marked by the increasing power of smaller and smaller entities and the explosion of biotechnology. The purpose of this article is to widen the discussion on what forms 4GW may take and to offer a possible model for the next generation of war: 5GW. Adapted from Military Review, May-June 2007.

Management consists of those continuing actions of planning, organizing, directing, coordinating, controlling, and evaluating the use of men, money, materials, and facilities to accomplish missions and tasks. Management is inherent in command, so the candidate officers are trained to execute their authority and responsibility in command. Management principles are lectured both at military graduate schools and application courses. But some themes are repeated, reduplicated; the study plans at the Military University and the Military Academy must be more coordinated, was said at the professional conference on management, held in November 2007, at the Defence University. Some proposals were put forward, e.g. stress on simulation of military functions on computers. The central goal of Army transformation is to reach the decisive information prevalence and operational effectiveness backed by NEC (Network Enabled Capability), established as an accredited study subject.

The purpose of this article is to get readers acquainted with new facts that are arising in the sphere of defence and security of state and at the same time they might influence defence economics research. This recent phenomena came into existence as a consequence of new world layout and events especially tied with massive terrorist attacks after September 2001.

The return of Russia as a power that begins again to partake in political agenda of present-day world raises the necessity to reflect its inner developments in the background of its recent history. There are six key factors that substantionally influence the position of Russia in the world: large sources of raw materials (pipelines); outstanding military capacities (the world's second nuclear potential); high level of general education; wide scientific and research base; permanent membership in UN Security Council and in the Group of Eight (G-8); deciding influence in the near neighbourhood. The study comes to the conclusion that Russia-in the horizon of 2020-will belong among world's leading actors, together with the US, the EU, China, and Islamic world. Russia will be able to of enforce its foreign and security goals, both in post-Soviet areas and in key regions in Europe, Asia and in the Great Near East. As such, it will probably get into conflict with the US. The priority tasks of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will rest on maintaining nuclear parity with the US and building capacities for asymmetrical operations.

Summary of Security Com174 munity Views - Part One. Despite the fact that most of the predictions made in the early 20th century did not realized, there are still plenty of arguments for drawing security prognoses as the only method assessing synthetic alternatives of future progress. The future is not unequivocally determined, as the all comprising development is strongly influenced by subjective motives. We must have scenarios upon which we can act, operate, namely in the field of security. The government ought to set clearly our security agenda, where and why we are going to make possible military engagement. All further actions are developing from those prognoses, i.e. buying tanks, helicopters, parachutes, armoured vehicles, etc. The first part of this security study covers several predictions containing even some controversial visions. They are based upon the opinion survey done among members of Czech military community. The field of investigation comprises EU, US, North Korea, Iran, Iraq, Africa, Asia, even hypothetic Russia-China conflict, terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, and the like.

This second and closing part of this security study covers decades before the half of this century. The leading role in prevention and fight against armed conflicts will rest namely upon intelligence services. It is also expected the mass use of nonlethal weapons. The US will stay as the only leading superpower, minority expects a plurality model, i.e. the US will be only first among the equals. Some predicts the collapse of the EU. The Army of the Czech Republic ought to achieve full operational potential around the year 2012. It will take part in multinational missions. The Alliance armies should have 8 per cent of their capacities fully operable abroad. Under the preventive strategy, the regions of their prospective deployment will be in bordering countries around Europe, areas around the Eastern Mediterranean, or in the Far East. More or less, one problem remains still open: whether foreign deployments of the ACR really correspond to the interests and needs of the Czech Republic.

Since the 90's of the last century we have witnessed the discussions over extended concept of security, under which no national state is the only privileged security subject. The classical military concept is extended both "above", towards international, global and regional problems covering economy, social, environmental or humane issues and "down", in the direction of local communities, NGOs, private subjects and even individual citizens. Even though several important constitutional laws reflecting EU criteria were adopted, we still miss constituting and complete overall concept Czech security system. Of course, we have a document "Optimalization of Security System of the Czech Republic", but it is not the genuine concept, but a mere summary of practical measures dealing with temporary problems, namely after the Floods 2002. The author dares the public to open debate about priorities and goals of security politics of our country, in order to lay down, under general consensus, realistic security system, able to face the whole range of security threats and risks, explicitly in the broad international frame of NATO and EU.

Those three E are much in use both in official documents and mass media. Dozens of defence officials use them every day, but actual outputs present that they do not know the key essence of 3E, or they are not aware of how to put them into practice. This article would like to help them to make understand the practical application of basic principles of 3E in practise. The reason of this gap, according to the author, lies in insufficient ties between theoretical and executive spheres of defence sector.

90s introduced the new beginning of international and economical relations. The former USSR used to be overmilitarized state that is now transforming into a democratic republic. After 2000, the RF adopted many arrangements to stabilize the fall of Russian defence industry. The poor results of Russian economy motivated the federal government towards forming five defence agencies (in 1999): Russian Aeronautic and Space Agency (aeronautics and rocket industry), Russian Agency for Command and Control Systems (avionics, electronic industry), Russian Agency for Conventional Weaponry (arms and armament industry), Russian Agency for Ordnance and Munitions, Russian Agency for Shipbuilding. Nevertheless, the ageing of redundant and unnecessary military industries demands horizontal integration that might facilitate cooperation among individual enterprises. This process could help to unify military products and concentrate on modern weaponry, to improve applied technologies, corresponding to demands of 21st century forces.

The author follows the mainstream economics, i.e. leading economics of defence policy, ranging from economics of defence in the nuclear age, via economics of Iraq conflict, to current fight against terrorism. New paradigm must be drawn, taking into account source management, the distribution of economics weight of individual national economies of all countries participating in the fight against global terrorism.

What is Necessary to Consider in the Process of Organization Structures Construction, Military Forces Equipment and Training in ACR, after the Ending of "Conception" by Ing. Antonín Krásný, CSc. The very welcomed "Concept of Development of the Professional Army of the Czech Republic and the Mobilization of Armed Forces of the Czech Republic" had to be revised because of the lack financial means. This fact influenced a lot of live of our army. Additional career officers were to leave his services; military material, vehicles were further reduced. At present, we have to balance our military strength with security demands reflecting running changes in world's security surrounding. The main aim of the article is to describe development of security environment in the Central Europe. It considers decision mechanisms reform in NATO and transformations of its military forces structures. It highlights an impact of demographic, technological, institutional changes and changes in value system of defence assurance of the CR. We must still bear in mind that for us, NATO alliance, supplemented by the EU structures, is the main tool of our security.

The article characterises process measuring, the base of which is a system of metrics. They, or indicators come out from principal requirements laid down: process efficiency, process stability, embrace of processes by an organization, qualif ication of processes f or ar r angements of outputs and chances for their permanent innovation. Stated qualities are described above all in relation with process performances. The authoress uses the definitions introduced by the EFQM.

Building up a picture of adversaries in complicated operations other than war (OOTW) requires fresh thinking on the collection and analysis of intelligence material, writes Dr Dave Sloggett in Jane's Defence Weekly No 48/2005. Operations undertaken in present-day theatres include the need to arrest war criminals, defeat insurgency operations and disrupt the activities from those engaged in criminal activities that do not respect national boundaries (trafficking, drugs smuggling and the proliferation of weapons of mass effect). OOTW pose problems for the development of what is now referred to as effects-based operations, where the use of kinetic devices to destroy a target is one way to achieve an outcome. One important element of a solution is to build common definitions of terms that enable a discipline to be brought to the underlying freedom of authors compiling contact reports. Projects such as Dabinett, a multifaceted system of systems programme, can link together information contained in existing systems. Commanders able to exploit this capability, against the complex background in which OOTW are conducted, will truly take superior decisions.

The world is full of unsolvable problems. Every key problem has turned now into multinational one; in fact, this can be handled only if it becomes a transnational problem. Security development is multifaceted process tied with the whole globe. The author recapitulates several models or paradigms that influenced a lot our global strategical thinking. The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives by Zbigniew Brzezinski; The Choice: The Global Domination or Global Leadership of by the same author; The Clash of Civilizations by Samuel P. Huntington; Avin Toffler's The Third Wave; Kauffman's Fourth Law: Prolegomenon to General Biology (Investigations); Order Out of Chaos by I. Prigogine and I. Stengers. Dr. Volner says that the contemporary humankind has its last chance to push such a solution that might lead us out the world of dangers and threats to start building up a balanced and lasting security, but he warns against waging "small preventive wars", as the only way to safeguard the peace.

The authoress makes us acquainted with several basic methods of language drills, standardly used not only in military or state schools, but also in private educational institutions. Every described method is elaborated in detail, together with desirable educational goals, key characteristics, and representative ways of instruction. They are as follows: Audio-lingual Method, Grammar Translation Method, Direct Method (i.e. Berlitz Method) and Silent Way. Berlitz's method, although popular, was superseded by the old, classical, form-emphasizing Grammar Translation Method, which held reign until the 1950s when it was supplanted by the Audio-lingual Method (ALM), a method sometimes called "military method", based upon deep control, examination, extensive repetition. In a kind of behavioural conditioning, students do language drills, memorize set phrases and patterns, learn vocabulary in context, and focuse on correct form and the production of error-free sentences. "Silent Way", which came into existence in the 60s, covers all above mentioned methods. Learners of foreign language study the language in a similar way as they learned their own mother tongue, even with mistakes, later corrected by a teacher.

Under the definition, the present management covers leading the people, implementation of tasks, processes, so that the organization could achieve set prospective targets. Its structure in the ACR is pyramidal and it is divided into vertical and horizontal elements, so is economic management. The purpose of this article is to outline orientation in the education scheme of new professional soldiers - economic experts - to make easier to integrate them into everyday life in units and institutions of the ACR.

Developing Czech national defence system is based on long-term predictions of potential security threatsandplanningofresourcesavailablefordefence, including defence spending plans. This paper analyses the issue of current value of defence expenditures. It attempts to give an answer to the question whether defence requires a specific price index or if common civilian indicators like GDP deflator or consumer price index can be used in defence.

The language preparation was the main theme of the research done by the Faculty of Military Technology (Defence University Brno) in 2005. Two types of questionnaires were employed, one for university staff and a second one for career officers. Although we still underline the importance of English language for career soldiers in the ACR, the professional usage of foreign languages is low. Among others, the total of 43 per cent of respondents to the poll on usage of English language answered that they never had used English in their work; only 36 per cent used English occasionally, from time to time. It was not a research for academic sake; the answers by professional soldiers represent an important back feed for English teachers. They identified the fields of language teaching on which we could concentrate (military English, technical terminology) and prepared study schemes for teaching some subjects in English. The language preparation in our army is based upon NATO STANAG 6001 that ought to be harmonized with the requirements of individual departments ...220

As the EU is conducting its third military operation, the EUMS has become a key player in the development of the European Security and Defence Policy. In order to provide political control and strategic direction in a crisis, the European Council (Nice, December 2000) decided to establish new permanent political and military structures within the Council of the European Union: PSC-Political and Security Committee, EUMC-European Union Military Committee, EUMS-European Union Military Staff. The EUMS is responsible for peacekeeping tasks, tasks of combat forces in crisis management (including peacemaking), and further tasks identified in the European Security Strategy, such as joint disarmament operations, support for third countries in combating terrorism and security sector reform. As the only permanent integrated military structure of the EU, the EUMS has become the military linchpin of the EU. (Truppendienst, Bundesheer,

The concept of development of professional army and mobilization of armed forces of the CR in conditions of a new framework source frame presupposes to introduce "process management" with the Ministry of Defence. Although this tendency is not new, mentioned concept is not generally known, so the author would like to make clearer its roots and reasons its introduction. The success of economic management lies in managing time, quality tied with costs of running processes, evaluating indicators of accountancy, activity-based costing and activity-based management. Our goal is not to evaluate costs, effectivity, but our objective is to constitute departmental economy system with the aspiration to guarantee continually economical rationality (overall economy, effectivity, usefulness) of its processes, activities and performances.