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The Centres of Gravity (COG) are characteristics, capabilities, or localities from which a military force derives its freedom of action, physical strength, or will to fight. The COG belongs among the most important operational concepts. It is the main source of power and strength. Without dermining enemy's COG we are not able to carry out any quick and resolute action, to reach ordered tasks, desired objectives. The primary purpose of this article is to offer basic information about this subject. This first part is concentrated predominantly to Carl von Clausewitz's ideas. The article especially aims on disunity and heterogeneity of comprehension of the COG theory in confrontation with contemporary doctrinal publications and original Clausewitz's theory. It highlights coherences that can affect fulfilling political and military objectives in current and future military operations.

The subject of this comprehensive study: the main features of global risk society can be embodied by ecology crises, global financial crises, threat of terrorism. The article is presented as a report to military community and audience, with the underlying focus on terrorism. The author is mapping the global future in the first two decades of this century. As a small country we must pay attention to the developments in the worlds leading powers: the U.S., China, Russia, last but not least, within the EU. Those themes also present individual headings of this study. He treats energy, demography, peace, security, good neighbourly relations, cooperation between states that are most desirable goals we want to reach. In a way, as the main actor of worlds security situation till 2020 is identified Islamist terrorism (radical Islamists, Al Qaeda). At the end Mr. Balabán recalls the former "Security Policy of the Czech Republic" released ten years ago, reminding us the necessity to be prepared for the worst scenarios.

Anti-ballistic missiles are missiles designed to counter enemy's ballistic missiles. First, the author compares strategic patterns reflecting various eras of the former bipolar world. Their mutual balance of that time could be described as Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD). As long as MAD was a fact of life, the ABM Treaty fulfilled its important function as a cornerstone of strategic stability. Keeping nuclear arsenals at a level which is not even justifiable is selfcontradictory, as the military strategy and targeting policy is based on the capability of the other side, not on its intentions. Today's Russian policy is shaped by the status-driven desire to deal with the United States from a position of power-related symmetry and strategic parity, by negating the unique position of the United States. The American ballistic missile defence policy used to be also a central element of their containment strategy towards China. However, at present, Ballistic Missile Defence (BDM) sets as a top-priory the defence against the so-called rough states, rather than against Moscow or Beijing.

Summary of Security Com174 munity Views - Part One. Despite the fact that most of the predictions made in the early 20th century did not realized, there are still plenty of arguments for drawing security prognoses as the only method assessing synthetic alternatives of future progress. The future is not unequivocally determined, as the all comprising development is strongly influenced by subjective motives. We must have scenarios upon which we can act, operate, namely in the field of security. The government ought to set clearly our security agenda, where and why we are going to make possible military engagement. All further actions are developing from those prognoses, i.e. buying tanks, helicopters, parachutes, armoured vehicles, etc. The first part of this security study covers several predictions containing even some controversial visions. They are based upon the opinion survey done among members of Czech military community. The field of investigation comprises EU, US, North Korea, Iran, Iraq, Africa, Asia, even hypothetic Russia-China conflict, terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, and the like.

The return of Russia as a power that begins again to partake in political agenda of present-day world raises the necessity to reflect its inner developments in the background of its recent history. There are six key factors that substantionally influence the position of Russia in the world: large sources of raw materials (pipelines); outstanding military capacities (the world's second nuclear potential); high level of general education; wide scientific and research base; permanent membership in UN Security Council and in the Group of Eight (G-8); deciding influence in the near neighbourhood. The study comes to the conclusion that Russia-in the horizon of 2020-will belong among world's leading actors, together with the US, the EU, China, and Islamic world. Russia will be able to of enforce its foreign and security goals, both in post-Soviet areas and in key regions in Europe, Asia and in the Great Near East. As such, it will probably get into conflict with the US. The priority tasks of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will rest on maintaining nuclear parity with the US and building capacities for asymmetrical operations.

This second and closing part of this security study covers decades before the half of this century. The leading role in prevention and fight against armed conflicts will rest namely upon intelligence services. It is also expected the mass use of nonlethal weapons. The US will stay as the only leading superpower, minority expects a plurality model, i.e. the US will be only first among the equals. Some predicts the collapse of the EU. The Army of the Czech Republic ought to achieve full operational potential around the year 2012. It will take part in multinational missions. The Alliance armies should have 8 per cent of their capacities fully operable abroad. Under the preventive strategy, the regions of their prospective deployment will be in bordering countries around Europe, areas around the Eastern Mediterranean, or in the Far East. More or less, one problem remains still open: whether foreign deployments of the ACR really correspond to the interests and needs of the Czech Republic.

In the early 21st century defence research can be discussed in two ways: we can stay either within existing discipline "theory of state defence", or we can set up new academic specialization concentrating more on the notion "security" and its individual aspects, including their inner ties. In the former case, there are spheres in which civil and military experts can complement each other, whereas other spheres of studies ought to stay exclusively in the domain of military experts. Mutual cooperation between civilian and military experts can be concentrated on systematic studies of security threats, predictions of potential conflicts, analyses of security cooperation between the Czech Republic and NATO, the EU and the OSCE, economy support of state defence. On the contrary, military specialist ought to focus on e.g. major regional conflicts, low intensity conflicts, military operations other than war. As the term "security science" is not used in NATO nations, the author suggests, it would be more useful to preserve academic discipline "defence theory" to make full use of military experts.

Even after the Cold War, our world is full of local and international conflicts. There were dozens of wars, fringe clashes between local opposing groups in Africa, Asia and so on. Among them there were four wars of lager size, with more than thousands of deaths in each of them that could be characterized as international wars: Desert Storm 1991, Iraqi Freedom 2003, Allied Strength 1999, and Enduring Freedom 2001. Now we can look at them from a distance ...217 Problems tied with those large-scale wars have several levels: supranational (international) level and military level, being accompanied by paradoxes: international and political paradoxes and military ones. This influenced structures and methods of training and preparation of Australian, Britain and US forces. The lessons were embedded into their military concepts, rules and regulations, e.g. Complex Warfighting (Australia), Future Land Operating Concept (UK), Field Manual: Interim Counterinsurgency Operations (US). New roles of military forces, global and local implications, ought to be embedded also into the structures and concepts of the Army of the Czech Republic, concludes the author.

Antiballistic defence systems could be defined as a secondary defensive response to ballistic threats, against existing, projected or planned ballistic military hardware. In a way, it is a sort of deterrence weapon, because such defence discourages opponents form the development of offensive missiles. The author of this article, the former deputy defence minister, Maj-Gen. (ret), specifies three relevant antimissiles system: ALTBM-NATO Active Layered Theatre Ballistic Missile Defence; NATO MD-NATO Missile Defence; and USA MD-USA Missile Defence. The purpose of American antiballistic defence is to counterbalance potential strokes by limited numbers of ballistic missiles, blasted off from both enemy and rogue states and those launched by accident. Allegedly, the Iranians are developing ballistic missiles with the range of 4,000 km. With the reference to the fact that the distance Prague-Teheran is about 3,400 km, and such missiles could constitute an eminent danger even for the Czech Republic, not only for the continental United States, this issue is widely discussed in Czech mass media.

90s introduced the new beginning of international and economical relations. The former USSR used to be overmilitarized state that is now transforming into a democratic republic. After 2000, the RF adopted many arrangements to stabilize the fall of Russian defence industry. The poor results of Russian economy motivated the federal government towards forming five defence agencies (in 1999): Russian Aeronautic and Space Agency (aeronautics and rocket industry), Russian Agency for Command and Control Systems (avionics, electronic industry), Russian Agency for Conventional Weaponry (arms and armament industry), Russian Agency for Ordnance and Munitions, Russian Agency for Shipbuilding. Nevertheless, the ageing of redundant and unnecessary military industries demands horizontal integration that might facilitate cooperation among individual enterprises. This process could help to unify military products and concentrate on modern weaponry, to improve applied technologies, corresponding to demands of 21st century forces.

The China's impact on world affairs is growing and will grow further in decades to come. Those years will be critical for Taiwan, and for its relationship with other states. Three related factors determine the texture of this interaction: the policies evolving in Beijing, internal developments on Taiwan, and the international environment. Beijing has offered Taipei several proposals for reunification. The proposals, including the recent "one state, two systems" proposal, allow Taipei to maintain its social and economic system, its armed forces and its unofficial ties with foreign countries. China's grand strategy is to make war while avoiding the battle. Therefore, Taiwan is to be persuaded that the acceptance of "One China" principle is vitally important for preventing the Taiwanese independence. Otherwise, People's Armed Forces will open an invasion to Taiwan by three successive attacks: (1) high precise medium-range ballistic missiles DF-21C with the aim to suppress air defence; (2) the second stroke would be massive attack with short-range precise missiles; (3) the last stroke ought to be done by cruise missiles. This essay is adapted from articles by Mary C. Fitzgerald and Eric A. McVadon, Armed Forces Journal 11/2005.

The author follows the mainstream economics, i.e. leading economics of defence policy, ranging from economics of defence in the nuclear age, via economics of Iraq conflict, to current fight against terrorism. New paradigm must be drawn, taking into account source management, the distribution of economics weight of individual national economies of all countries participating in the fight against global terrorism.

What is Necessary to Consider in the Process of Organization Structures Construction, Military Forces Equipment and Training in ACR, after the Ending of "Conception" by Ing. Antonín Krásný, CSc. The very welcomed "Concept of Development of the Professional Army of the Czech Republic and the Mobilization of Armed Forces of the Czech Republic" had to be revised because of the lack financial means. This fact influenced a lot of live of our army. Additional career officers were to leave his services; military material, vehicles were further reduced. At present, we have to balance our military strength with security demands reflecting running changes in world's security surrounding. The main aim of the article is to describe development of security environment in the Central Europe. It considers decision mechanisms reform in NATO and transformations of its military forces structures. It highlights an impact of demographic, technological, institutional changes and changes in value system of defence assurance of the CR. We must still bear in mind that for us, NATO alliance, supplemented by the EU structures, is the main tool of our security.

The world is full of unsolvable problems. Every key problem has turned now into multinational one; in fact, this can be handled only if it becomes a transnational problem. Security development is multifaceted process tied with the whole globe. The author recapitulates several models or paradigms that influenced a lot our global strategical thinking. The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives by Zbigniew Brzezinski; The Choice: The Global Domination or Global Leadership of by the same author; The Clash of Civilizations by Samuel P. Huntington; Avin Toffler's The Third Wave; Kauffman's Fourth Law: Prolegomenon to General Biology (Investigations); Order Out of Chaos by I. Prigogine and I. Stengers. Dr. Volner says that the contemporary humankind has its last chance to push such a solution that might lead us out the world of dangers and threats to start building up a balanced and lasting security, but he warns against waging "small preventive wars", as the only way to safeguard the peace.