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This article aims at building a bridge upon a gap, which separates academic sphere and intelligence community in the issue of predictive methodology. The author tries to accomplish this objective by presenting intelligence predictive methods based on open-source literature research. First, the question of uncertainty and probability in prediction is introduced (Cynefin template). Then follows basic introduction to predictive methods in civil and military intelligences, so that the reader might grasp the fundamentals of early warning systems. The academics and above all journalists should know the risks and perils in forming intelligence forecasts, estimates, foresight and warning scenarios, e.g. the so-called Black Swan scenario, the author explains potentials failures of the Delphi method. This study ought to be regarded as an introductory to predictive intelligence concurrently done by governmental agencies for purposes of national security and defence.

The book consists of papers by eleven authors, members and fellow members of the Centre for Social and Economy Strategy, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University Prague. At present, we must prepare to face socially unwelcome phenomena. We must arrange preventive projects, so that we could solve prospective crises. The authors therefore pay their attention to methodology of crisis scenarios, or how they are to be prepared. Predicted nine worst-case scenarios anticipate prolonged crises, failure in education policy, rise of extremism, climate changes, energy collapse, lack of international balance, and separation of the Czech Republic from Europe.

It is not too often we could meet such a comprehensive monograph, dealing with security problems. Among such books belongs a book by Jan Eichler, with the same title, published by Charles University Prague, 2007. The most relevant chapter, Wars waged by the U.S. and its allies after the start of global terrorism, offers a provocative question, whether democratic nations, indirectly and unintentionally, gave rise to the upsurge of antipathy amongst the states with different political constitution, resulting in acts of terror? The ambiguous assessments of American wars in Afghanistan and Iraq seem to support author?s view. According to the reviewer, dr. A. Rašek, the author is wrong about the role land forces after the RMA?Revolution in Military Affairs. Without ground forces we are not able to win today?s asymmetrical warfare. The large part of book deals with conflicts not very familiar in the Czech Republic: Ethiopian-Eritrean war, disturbances in Somalia (operation Restore Hope), Burundi, Rwanda, Congo, Sierra Leone, Srí Lanka, Cashmere, Nepal, Haiti, Bolivia, and Colombia.

The year 2005 is a breaking one from the perspective both state and military, as new law amendments were adopted, then abolishing compulsory military service (beginning of fully professional forces), and drafting new strategical and concept documents. The relevant document of antidrug policy in the military is constituted by the Order of Defence Minister No. 20/2005: The Prevention of Socially Undesirable Developments. The main stress is put on the prevention of drug addiction, which is framed into common complex fight against alcoholism, addiction, drug abuse in order to we could ensure full effectiveness of our forces. We can use several methods how to implement drugs prevention: by administrative and legal measures (dry laws), economical stipulations (budget means for anti-drugs policy), organizational means (supportive plans such as DROGUES system or LABS, DOGLEG programmes). The author proposes to introduce the so-called zero toleration into army recruiting policy.

The artillery of the Army of the CR is indispensable part of Czech armed forces. It will take part in operational activities, in the frame of EBAO concept (Effect Based Approach to Operations), acting in contact with various task forces. To meet those objectives, it must reach highest level of modulability. The article depicts all variants of effective augmentation by artillery firepower, artillery reconnaissance, and close artillery support. It enumerates all possible combinations of this reinforcement. Backed by those acquired specifics, the authors further extrapolate demands for automated control system of artillery fire support.

The very modern trends in the forces of advanced countries are hiring private civilian companies, private enterprises, in everyday performance of armed forces. As this phenomenon is very frequent, the authors decided to go into its roots, to find a common cause of this fact. In the past, armies were closed societies, self-sufficient, independent from states. Today, gradually, soldiers became more concentrated on key military tasks and supporting functions are transferred to private companies. The German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) takes over mechanics used in private sector: it integrates economy dimension. Above all, it is transparency of bookkeeping, which ought to give evidence on savings in everyday life of forces. The Bundeswehr uses the so-called Market Testing, as a means of practical cooperation for engaging private capital. All those fact are cited as thoughprovoking.

The White Paper on Defence is a frame document that only points out main directions of military activities that further must be worked up in detail at all levels of defence department. This study presents all possible themes in the field of public procurements. As he set principles in the Whiter Paper correspond to those set in governmental document Public Procurements, it depends only on MoD experts to what measure they meet governmental requirements and implement them into drafted concept materials, incorporating rules for placing, assignment, rating, examination and audit.

The author, director of military hospital base, reacts favourably to the article mentioned above. He would like to add something from the practical point of military commander. In his unit, there is a deficiency of attested graduated surgeons, whereas there are a lot of graduated nurses, rescue workers, because of a wide offer of civil colleges and universities. They study in their leisure time and thus gain higher educational background. In consequence, his unit does not need graduates from Defence University in Brno. He comes to the conclusion that necessary commissioned officers could be recruited from among ranks of non-commissioned officers or sergeants, by means of additional schooling and scholarships, or by recruiting graduates from civilian colleges and universities.

Risk management covers the identification, assessment, and prioritisation of risks, which is followed by coordinated preventive operations to minimize negative impacts on society. The most demanding is the so-called risk assessment (risk identification, risk analysis, risk evaluation). The Risk Catalogue consists of introductory page, and twenty cards for risks register. With the assistance of this catalogue, defence analysts acquire general knowledge about number of risks and their frequency. The level of risk is calculated by summation according to its probability, gravity, and unwanted effects. In case of defence department, actual tasks are assigned to manage to Defence Ministry, Division, Branch, and Section accordingly. Possible risks are represented at a chart accompanying the article. The purpose of Risk Catalogue, its principles, guidelines for implementation, is to make the work of analysts easier.

It is a point at which attacking forces are unable to continue their attack or even defend themselves, because do casualties, shortages of fuel, ammunition and rations, and sheer physical exhaustion. This sequel article deals with the theory of the operational art focusing on the culminating point operational concept. The article emanates from Carl von Clausewitz's ideas and concepts described in his book "On War", doctrinal publications analysis and study projects of the operational art theorists. It treats conditions influencing achievement of the culminating point on single levels of war-strategic, operational and tactical and highlights coherences and factors having fundamental influences on culmination. The article is accompanied by several graphs describing this theory in detail. Key words: Culmination, Culminating Point, Zeroing, Intelligence Preparation of the Battlespace, Campaign Planning and Developing Operations.

The article is focused on applications of the Reach-Back concept as a procedural help to the technical supervision of the investor during peacekeeping missions abroad. The fourth part of the article describes the technical supervision of the investor based on KFOR mission lesson learned. Private local construction companies perform the majority of constructional works during KFOR missions. In fact, with the use of Reach-Back concept, there is no difference between the contents of work of technical supervision of investor in peace time in the Czech Republic and during the mission in Kosovo. The Reach-Back concept has several applications, Lotus Sametime, Lotus Quickr iProject (CAD systems). All applications are opened to wide use via field engineering address, http://ipzv. unob.cz. Supervision in ACR Mission Abroad OPINIONS, CONTROVERSY

The author, the former chief military chaplain, nowadays an advisor to the Czech defence minister, summarizes all relevant views on global responses to terrorism. The deadly attacks against Word Trade Center were more than acts of terror, they were acts of war. International law makes it possible to hunt the perpetrators, organizers and instigators of terrorism wherever they are. Immediately after the 11 September attacks on the United States, the Security Council expressed its determination to combat, by all means, threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist acts. The Council reaffirmed the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence in accordance with the Charter of United Nations. The States concerned have set their current military action in Afghanistan in that context. Col. Holub quotes individual views on war expressed by leaders of the U.S., NATO, United Nations, international law specialists, high Catholic clergy, ideas of Bishop Conference, and those of religious groupings. He doesn't come to any conclusion; he only wants to initiate a wide-ranging ethic discussion, as the traditional concept of the "just war" doesn't fit to this new situation. In his opinion, the core of problem lies in justifiability or unjustifiability of preventive war.

In our forces, similarly like in those of Slovakia, Poland, Hungary, and Lithuania, we assess the scope of damages in numbers showing overall labour needed for repair, necessary for restoration complete combat capacity. Now we put into test another method, by means of the so-called S-M-C-A code (Shoot, Mobility, Communication, Armour); e.g. numbers 0-0-0-0 represent fully combat-ready main battle tank, whereas 0-4-0-4 shows immobile armoured vehicle, with perforated armour. To adapt commanders? decisionmaking process and introduce this method into forces, mechanised units, up the battalion level, we perform exercises on ModSAF trainer (Modular Semi-Automated Forces). This method enables us to plan the application of military repair depots, fully recover combat potential of military vehicles as soon as possible. Nowadays, ModSAF methodology is successfully exploited in the Centre for Simulation Technologies in Brno and Vyškov. The Army of the Czech Republic stands at the very same place as modern forces of Alliance, the US, Great Britain, Germany and others, in the 90?s of the last century.

Economy Management by Ing. Svatopluk Kunc. The purpose of this article is to explain the essence of above mentioned economic categories, their linkage to cost accounts, accountancy, to characterize accounting items as an important signpost, to clear mutual ties between the so-called economic rationality and the position of a manager in armed forces. It is not easy task to find unifying point of view. For that purpose the author explains methods of controlling, outsourcing, process management, total quality management, balanced scorecard, value management, etc.

Problems of crossing abilities are most often defined as the ability of wheeled and tracked vehicles to move on damaged, unrepaired communications or terrain. This ability is determined by the construction of vehicle, terrain qualities, and their classes. Less known are problems of reverse driving. In this case, we do not examine crossing ability, but investigate the capacity of terrain to decompose an overall load of moving vehicle. It is a part of tasks performed by engineer reconnaissance for force movements, as troops make use not only neat communications, but also rough terrains, off main routes. Diagnoses of this kind are performed by the Department of Engineer Technologies, Defence University Brno. Many examples are presented in the American Field Manual "Planning and Design of Roads, Airfields, and Heliports in the Theater of Operations-Road Design".

The author summarises most common and repeated mistakes of graduated officers after leaving military schools. Junior officers are practically in the same position as young manager in civil life, so we can find some analogies in civil managerial leadership. Civil manager face practically the same problems and situations. There are various mistakes that junior officers ought to be warned. Such educational instructions and leadership should be implemented into military schools' curricula. Backed by a vast amount of studied literature, the author offers his own solution. He makes use of five myths by Linda Hill, professor at Harvard Business School. The problem is to avoid extreme leadership styles: dictatorlike and benevolent ones.

The definitions of the geospatial support used in different NATO missions and at command levels are very similar. However, the real content varies and it is affected by particular command level and the territory supported. The article describes the structure and manning of the Geographic Section at the HQ KFOR Pristina, Kosovo, and the Geographic Cells of all KFOR Multinational Task Forces. The author discusses the changes on both the customer and request sides and their changes caused by a recent transition of KFOR to the "Deterrent Presence" operations. Our soldiers work in leading positions and specialist occupations. Since 2003 the Geographical Service (GeoSl) has been regularly occupying geographical posts at KFOR Command Pristina. Those positions are prestigious, recognized by all NATO geographical community.

Management by objectives works very well only if there is a rating and evaluation system of objectives. To form such organization one is not easy, especially when using aggregate objectives, combining many partial objectives of various levels. This article deals with the problem how to rate and evaluate this kind of aggregate objectives. The problem is explained in the enlistment goal 2008 of the Czech Armed Forces, which sets the number of volunteers joining the Czech Armed Forces in 2008. The key role here is played by the suitable gauges steering a level (percentage) reached. Thus, recruiting reflects manning the Czech forces by professional personnel in a given period (calendar year). The author proposes to run recruitment for military schools separate from enlistment for the army, i.e. to conceive this recruitment only as a practical goal.

The second part of this short serial deals with the theory of the operational art focusing on the centre of gravity (COG). The article emanates from Carl von Clausewitz's ideas, doctrinal publications analysis and many study projects of the operational art theorists. The author especially aims on disunity and heterogeneity of comprehension of the centre of gravity theory in confrontation of contemporary doctrinal publications and original Clausewitz's theory. He compares operational manuals (those of U.S. and NATO), and finds similarities concerning characteristics, capabilities or localities from which a military force, nation or alliance, derives its freedom of action, physical strength or will to fight. Finally, he himself defines enemy's centre of gravity and highlights coherences that can affect fulfilling political and military objectives in current and future military operations.

Between 1993 and 2009, the EU consisted of three pillars. This structure was introduced with the Treaty of Maastricht in 1993, and was eventually abandoned in 2009, with the entry into force of the Treaty of Lisbon, which among others abolished the so-called second pillar of the EU "Common Foreign and Security Policy". Today this role was taken over by several institutions and agencies, established for solving relevant questions, for examle the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), the European Union Satellite Centre (EUSC) and the European Defence Agency (EDA). The difference is that national acencies solve problems separately, whereas EU agency take into account commont foreign and security policy, under the supervision of the EU.

An article in the Vojenské rozhledy magazine triggered an argument over the importance cash-flow planning for the application of 3E-methodology at the Czech MoD in 2004. Today's study re-opens this argument again, but on the background of the modernization of Czech state finance management and the implementation of a modern cash-flow management into the Czech public finance, under the authority of Finance Ministry. Those processes profoundly affected the economic policy of the MoD, granting more responsibility and economic independence. MoD is allowed to formulate, administer and control its own financial policy to reach higher cost-effectiveness. But does the ministry really become a better financial manager? This article deals with fiscal years 2004-2007.

In October 2008, under the auspices of the First Deputy Chief of the ACR General Staff Maj.Gen. Josef Prokš and Col. Jiří Gajdoš, Chief of Czech Armed Forces Chemical Corps, 3rd International CBRN Commandant and Commanders Conference took place in Liberec, dealing with the CBRN threats and variants of protection against them. The Conference was organized by Force Development Division-Operations Section Chemical Corps Department in cooperation with Centre of Excellence in Vyškov, 31st CBRN brigade in Liberec, NBC Defence Institute in Vyškov, Centre of Biological Protection at Těchonín, Chemical Corps Department of Joint Forces in Olomouc, Czech NBC Team, and last but not least VOP-026 in Šternberk. The conference was regarded as a meeting of heads of chemical corps both NATO nations and friendly countries. Further information: Pavel.Otrisal@unob.cz.

One of most important tasks of the Army of the Czech Republic is the preparation for country defence, be prepared to defend the republic against attacks from outside, with the use of Allied defence system. The core of manning in time of danger or war is recruitment of all people coming under compulsory conscription and those with the duty of extra service. Even though the compulsory military service (national service) was abolished in 2004 and the ACR became fully professionalized, Czech population is obliged to conscription/draft. All men/women over the age of 18 till 60 could be conscripted. The difference is that this legal obligation is realized only after the government has proclaimed the state of danger or declares war. This selection, namely the activities of recruiting boards, must be prepared well ahead, in time of peace, in cooperation with municipal authorities, state and regional administration. The author also deals with ?extra service?, which might come into existence in case we are short of conscripts.

The so-called Provincial reconstruction teams (PRTs) are a relatively new concept and element in coalition operations. Those teams have been operating in Afghanistan since the end of the year 2002. The evaluation and assessment of their work is very complicated and sometimes quite unambiguous. The main purpose of this article is to show to widest military community tasks and problems of PRTs; secondly to introduce main principles of work of PRTs under different conditions. Moreover, this article refers to fundamental problems that guide their PRTs development and work in countries that have some experiences with building and activities of PRTs. The author also describes the activities of 40 Czech military personnel PRT in Afghanistan (in the frame of German PRT, Badakshan Province, Fayzabad).

Mentioned Balanced Scoredcard-BSC is an ef f icient tool that helps to the of f icial management to transform vision and strategy into reality, by means of monitoring key efficiency indicators and their transformation into action plans: BSC covers the package of strategy maps enabling to consider mutual connections. Owning to the transparency cause-consequence relation, we can implement cohesive strategy into all level of the organization.

This paper deals with aspects of intelligence analysis that very often influence the quality of intelligence information utilized by end users. Such analysis requires not only analytical thinking, but also specific experiences of all personnel exploiting collected information. The same body of information may result in multiple analytic products, with different security classifications, time scales, and level of detail. The result of this process is an analytical product - evaluation without any idle speculation and pseudo prophecy. Evaluation and interpretation must describe up-to-date conditions and demonstrate the clusters of future images with alternative developments. Reasonable evaluation reduces uncertainty and makes user's decision easier. At the end the author concentrates on rules of analytical team control and management.