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This article aims at building a bridge upon a gap, which separates academic sphere and intelligence community in the issue of predictive methodology. The author tries to accomplish this objective by presenting intelligence predictive methods based on open-source literature research. First, the question of uncertainty and probability in prediction is introduced (Cynefin template). Then follows basic introduction to predictive methods in civil and military intelligences, so that the reader might grasp the fundamentals of early warning systems. The academics and above all journalists should know the risks and perils in forming intelligence forecasts, estimates, foresight and warning scenarios, e.g. the so-called Black Swan scenario, the author explains potentials failures of the Delphi method. This study ought to be regarded as an introductory to predictive intelligence concurrently done by governmental agencies for purposes of national security and defence.

Africa has became synonymous with conflict, increasingly violent and protracted. The continent is facing huge difficulties today and the EU is more and more involved in peace enforcement and expeditionary operations. Therefore the purpose of this article is to inform and pass knowledge of operational environment to those Czech soldiers designated to deploy overseas and abroad. It covers topics such as operational areas, understanding EU Battle Group operational Environment and Africa's operational environment. It is necessary for Czech soldiers to understand African operational environment very quickly and profoundly to avoid unfortunate misunderstanding of the local culture, customs, believes, religions, regional official and customary laws. It is a new challenge for the Armed Forces of the Czech Republic to be prepared for the CZE/SVK Battle Group. All information and data for this paper were drawn from unclassified sources.

The idea of this enquiry into Czech Army logistics was to prove that even under hard conditions originated in permanently changing army concepts, the army logistics still keeps its high standard and responsibility. During transformation, an appropriate organization structure has been created, with working mechanism of logistics support, using motivated and rationale source exploitation. The purpose of an array of transformation in defence sector was to introduce not only new and effective army structure, compatible with NATO armies, but also to change the system of fi nancing forces. The funding ought to be more economical. The article is backed by a longterm study and observation of logistics development in defence sector.

In recent years both authoresses took part in several important international terminology meetings: European Association for Lexicography (EURALEX), International Conference and Exhibition Dedicated to Defence Training, Education and Simulation (ITEC), and finally the highest Alliance terminology forum: NATO Terminology Programme. In our country this subject is under the authority of Defence Standardisation, Codification and Government Quality Assurance Authority. All problems are incorporated in the Terminology Programme of Defence Department. It deals with STANAG 3680 implementations, MoD's standardisation policy, standardisation terminology process. The most representative terminology body within the Army of the Czech Republic is the Terminology Conference of MoD, traditionally held in the premises of the Defence University Brno.

The artillery of the Army of the CR is indispensable part of Czech armed forces. It will take part in operational activities, in the frame of EBAO concept (Effect Based Approach to Operations), acting in contact with various task forces. To meet those objectives, it must reach highest level of modulability. The article depicts all variants of effective augmentation by artillery firepower, artillery reconnaissance, and close artillery support. It enumerates all possible combinations of this reinforcement. Backed by those acquired specifics, the authors further extrapolate demands for automated control system of artillery fire support.

This paper deals with aspects of intelligence analysis that very often influence the quality of intelligence information utilized by end users. Such analysis requires not only analytical thinking, but also specific experiences of all personnel exploiting collected information. The same body of information may result in multiple analytic products, with different security classifications, time scales, and level of detail. The result of this process is an analytical product - evaluation without any idle speculation and pseudo prophecy. Evaluation and interpretation must describe up-to-date conditions and demonstrate the clusters of future images with alternative developments. Reasonable evaluation reduces uncertainty and makes user's decision easier. At the end the author concentrates on rules of analytical team control and management.

Army rations or preserved foods are used to be normally prepared in field kitchen. For standardization reasons, the forces of NATO nations have agreed on several principles, embedded in STANAG 2937 that is the basic document for nutrition of soldiers, compulsory for all NATO member states. Up to now, as a field food support, the Army of the Czech Republic has had at its disposal only the so-called "combat ration food", offered in two variants. At Jan Bata University Zlín, experts finished the development of pre-prepared meals, i.e. "meals ready to eat" intended to be prepared in field conditions. Basic rations meet all requirements prescribed by the Czech Field Manual Prov-1-1. Emergency rations meet 60 % of required energy value. They are intended to help in crisis situations, in time of lack of food. For handling, packing and traffic grounds, food rations are planned for 25 persons.

Risk management covers the identification, assessment, and prioritisation of risks, which is followed by coordinated preventive operations to minimize negative impacts on society. The most demanding is the so-called risk assessment (risk identification, risk analysis, risk evaluation). The Risk Catalogue consists of introductory page, and twenty cards for risks register. With the assistance of this catalogue, defence analysts acquire general knowledge about number of risks and their frequency. The level of risk is calculated by summation according to its probability, gravity, and unwanted effects. In case of defence department, actual tasks are assigned to manage to Defence Ministry, Division, Branch, and Section accordingly. Possible risks are represented at a chart accompanying the article. The purpose of Risk Catalogue, its principles, guidelines for implementation, is to make the work of analysts easier.

At present, MoD department prepares a new method of economic control: budgeting by objectives. The process has two levels. The fi rst level covers all sources control, the second one is restricted to budgeting methods. Our defence department is under the pressured of continual budget cuts, so the leading defence representatives should welcome this new technique which will clearly and distinctly present results of limited defence budgets, both for the army by itself and for country defence. Targeted budgeting will be oriented towards outward institutions (parliament) and inside activities (within defence department). Departmental objectives are to be taken as integrative, supported by IT system linked up with state treasury, offering reliable data about costs and expenses within the Chapter of the Ministry of Defence.

After 1989 public opinion polls have become inseparable part of examining our society. By analysing aggregate response data over time, we can see trajectories into the future. This might help MoD officials in decision-making processes, planning long-term developments. The "Army and Public" poll is concentrated on the attitudes of Czech population to topics such as the prestige of a professional soldier, military profession, NATO membership, confidence in public administration, last but not least, the Czech missions abroad. Positive mindsets appeared namely after 1996-97, when Czech army helped during catastrophic flood. In assessing period 2006-2009 most of respondents agreed with the statement that foreign missions proved the qualities of our army, their approval with our engagement in Afghanistan and Iraq rose significantly (by 33,1 per cent), attitudes against Kosovo were unbalanced.

Had PhDr. Miroslav Purkrábek, CSc. was still alive today, he would be 80 years old. It was on September 8, 2005, that Miroslav Purkrábek, suffered a stroke. This year it has been fi ve years since he died. He was a person who contributed to social sciences on three distinctive fi elds: military sociology, sociology of military health, and sociology of public policy. As a gifted scholar he expected that alongside with disarmament talks and preparing collective defence, especially after the fall of world?s socialist system, that task of the army would shift towards preventive, threatening role. But he even lived to see the moments when military professionals were engaged in real combat, in preemptive conflicts, against non-traditional, assymetric forces of guerrilla character. At the same time he could see that another hypothesis of transition to all professional forces was going be fulfi lled. Unfortunately, the Czech Army was not prepared for this important process, as political and MoD leaders at were occupied by this theme of professionalization only marginally.

The article is a polemical expression of authors' opinion over this problem. It is related to the orientation of society, political coalitions, and single states towards higher goals. If we admit that the sustainable development of society is the base for securing a peace and stability, then we can state that the question of security or consecutively country defence cover problems of the whole social system, subsystems and system elements. Strategical decision-making ought to be the highest priority in our society. It is indisputable that such decisionmaking deserves scientifi c support. At the end of this article the authors propose a short algorithmic program for Czech military strategy that is planned for the year 2014 and the concept of Czech army development planned for 2015.

The key term in this article is "war economy" It is used to describe the contingencies undertaken by the state to mobilise its economy for war production. Often confused term "resource conflicts" needs explaining. First, there are raw materials, mineral resources (diamonds, precious metals). Another group of resources are critical items, water supplies, and fertile lands. This article concentrates on conflicts provoked by the abundance of natural sources, not by their insufficiency. Their driving motive is "greed-based" model (the effort to take over the control over lands, crude oils). Another model is "grievance-based" model, based upon the feeling of hate, having its roots in e.g. underprivileged position of certain part of population) tied with worsening economy). "War economy" got a new meaning. It moved far away from Clauzewitz's paradigm, the sense of such war is in itself, the war is protracted, it is war for war's sake.

The article is focused on issue of hybridisation of Al Qai'da in Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), in North Africa, and its implications for European countries. The process of hybridisation is being conceived as growing nexus and convergence between violent non-state actors, while these processes could be in this case identified mainly in issues of use of kidnappings and secondary also reported involvement of AQIM in regional smuggling, mainly drugs, activities through Sahel and Saharan region to Europe. Regarding GSPC background, AQIM could be in long term theoretically able to re-establish its financial and supporting networks in Europe via cooperation with organized crime, which were largely disrupted after major crackdowns by security forces between 2004-2007. Event though a direct Al Qai'da attack in Europe is-according to the author-excluded, the purpose of this article to draw our attention to an eventuality of rebirth of European operation network of AQIM operational predecessor, i.e. GSPC.

The main Alliance mission is to "safeguard the freedom and security of its member countries" and to "deter and defend against any threat of aggression against any of them". Those general tasks are tailored today to changed international security surroundings. In May this year, a report by the experts group was released, forming the basis for further negotiations over the new strategical concept of NATO. The experts produced a document of first-rate quality identifying main tasks NATO is facing today. At the same time this document redefines prospective directions the Alliance should follow in the years to come. Without a broad popular support NATO's engagements namely off European territory couldn't be vindicated and justified. The same is true as far allocation of sources for NATO missions and developing military capabilities are concerned. So, the communication with public thus becomes a further dimension of this highest strategic document.

The outcomes of battles and fighting are significantly influenced by weather conditions. Together with other important circumstances they decide a chosen combat strategy, operational art, warfare tactics, and ways of personnel and vehicles deployment; consequently the volume of losses or casualties. The authors recount the establishing of weather service within individual arms, creating fi rst weather charts, they give details on situation in pre-war republic, during WWII, in the 50s, even after the Velvet Revolution in 1989. They mention the names of eminent personalities of Czech Hydrometeorological Service to be honoured and remembered. We must also remind that our Hydrometeorological Service works not only in favour of the ACR, but also for other NATO countries.

In 1939-41 Mr. Kácha was involved in Czech home resistance movement. At the beginning of 1948, the year of communist coup d'état, he became a member of illegal group of democratic army officers and military "academics" (officer candidates) at the Military Academy Hranice, headed by Col. Alexandr Korda. They collected intelligence information and prepared plans for the situation of prospective liberation of Czechoslovakia by Western democratic armies, or the Soviet Union?under the pressure of bad economic conditions or under Western pressure?would withdraw from Eastern Europe. They planned to form control authority to prevent chaos and acts of violence. In September 1949 he was sentenced to life imprisonment, after the Velvet Revolution, in May 1995, he was promoted to the rank of Major General. He was awarded the White Lion Order, Military Division.

The process of modelling the new multipolar world will last for several decades, its key features will be evident till 2020. The rise of multipolar world is as important as the end of "cold war", some twenty years ago. The author sees the United States as the only global superpower, but confronted with Asia, with leading power of China, and raising power of India. Russia and the EU are going to be only regional powers. He enumerates main geopolitical priorities of key world's actors: raw materials, namely oil, gas, water; intellectual potential, combat of ideologies, with selfconfident militant Islam. All variants are still opened. Military power will remain important for completing main strategical aims, alongside with ?soft power?, economic cooperation, and diplomatic ties. The author also mentions organizations and institutions less known in Central Europe: Shanghai Cooperation Organization, APEC, ASEAN, African Union, ECOWAS, Mercosur, last but not least Barcelona Conference and European Neighbourhood Policy.

The article deals with duties of a sniper and a military observer, sharp shooting at long distances, movement at areas in which operations are being carried out. Snipers are trained marksmen who are specialized in sniping the enemy. They are usually sited away form the main force, so that they can concentrate on shooting at selected targets instead of being drawn into general firefight. They are also less likely to be affected when the main force comes under artillery fire. The modern sniper is not alone, he is usually employed in team of two. The author also describes rifles and other weapons and equipments snipers are armed. The article is supplemented by graphs and tablets.

This work deals with the selection of candidates for Czech armed forces, with particular emphasis on their aptitude for professional military service in the ACR. Their age is also one of the distinct features influencing the result of selection procedures. The goal of this work is to assess the results of psychological tests of selected group of candidates (aged between 20-29 years and over 40) and their relation to age. This work entails theoretical as well as a practical concept in the form of quantitative survey. The theoretical part acquaints with the basic theoretical facts and specifications pertaining to military service. There is a detailed description of the selection process of suitability of the candidates for military service, especially psychological compatibility, differentiation of the stages of maturity and characterization of the maturity level in each. The practical part serves to introduce the observational survey. It analyses results of the psychological tests and presents the ascertained correlation between age and selected psychological variables.

Internal auditing is an independent, objective assurance and consulting activity designed to add value and improve an organization's operations. It helps an organization to accomplish its objectives by bringing a systematic, disciplined approach, so that we are able to evaluate and improve the effectiveness of risk management, command and control, or other processes. Internal auditing is a tool of Ministry of Defence management that is used for increasing effectiveness both in departmental and public sector administration. The article is supplemented by two schemes of the position of audition authorities within the Slovak MoD.

At present, when we are at the height of prosperity and affluence, at the same time we face the most impending perils. There are both global risks, cultural, civilizational, military as well as military-political, which may be enumerated as follows: terrorism, proliferation, regional conflicts, states collapse, illegal migration, ecological threats, organized crime, epidemic, pandemic, international armed conflicts. The Czech Republic, as a small state with rather limited resources and military potential, could solve security risks and threats only in the frame of NATO alliance, with the member states of the EU. Our country has been participating in international crises since December 11, 1990, when our federal parliament approved sending 200 volunteers in Saudi Arabia. Czech involvement covers both military and non-military deployments abroad. The new concept of security system of the Czech Republic should harmonize cooperation of all elements of this system and make it more effective and flexible.

The core of this article is lying in general delimitation of objectives, aims, and tools of state economy principles within defence department. It is the question of optimalization, leading doctrines and tools of economy of economy support of defence. The authoress proposes the system of optimalization of economy support of defence and economy and defence policy of state, its introducing into methods and practice.

Antiballistic defence systems could be defined as a secondary defensive response to ballistic threats, against existing, projected or planned ballistic military hardware. In a way, it is a sort of deterrence weapon, because such defence discourages opponents form the development of offensive missiles. The author of this article, the former deputy defence minister, Maj-Gen. (ret), specifies three relevant antimissiles system: ALTBM-NATO Active Layered Theatre Ballistic Missile Defence; NATO MD-NATO Missile Defence; and USA MD-USA Missile Defence. The purpose of American antiballistic defence is to counterbalance potential strokes by limited numbers of ballistic missiles, blasted off from both enemy and rogue states and those launched by accident. Allegedly, the Iranians are developing ballistic missiles with the range of 4,000 km. With the reference to the fact that the distance Prague-Teheran is about 3,400 km, and such missiles could constitute an eminent danger even for the Czech Republic, not only for the continental United States, this issue is widely discussed in Czech mass media.

The article is the information on a conference which was held in September 2006 at Defence University Brno ?Tactis 2006?. Management section held dealings under the title ?Management Trends for the 21st Century?. The leading paper was concentrated on 21st management styles and their implementation into armed forces. Furter papers were concentrated on schooling and training military professionals in NEC environment (network enanbled capability). They will be released in the following issue of this magazine. The report was prepared by Lt.Col. Ing. Miroslav Mašlej, Doc. Ing. Vítězslav Stodůlka, CSc., and Doc. Ing. Bohumil Brechta, CSc.

General View by Doc. Dr. Jiří Nedbal, CSc. When we prepare activities/exercises of military units, we can make use of theory of asymetric information that offers wide scope of decision variants. We can use PERT method which is not very difficult to understand. This can help us to disclose hidden reserves, sources, problems. We also could take over experience from other armies. It is important now, when percentage allocated from defence budged is still shrinking.

The Europeans would like to preserve an irreplaceable role of Americans in European security problems. On the other hand, NATO represents for the US a political and military means for American involvement in this region. The whole project of North Atlantic cooperation was drawn according to US demands, not to the contrary. So was the NATO transformation after the Cold War. For the Czech Republic is the bonding with the US the security priority number one. First, we joined the Partnership for Peace, as a primary step, previous to full membership in the Alliance. During wars in the former Yugoslavia in April 1992, we proved our loyalty by sending a joint Czechoslovak battalion for UNPROFOR operation with a total of 500 personnel. At present we've been sending our soldiers abroad to help peace effort of democratic nations headed by the US to stabilize security environment in the frame of international organizations, the UN, OSCE, etc.

The Military Technical Institute of Ground Forces (VTÚPV) Vyškov was established in 1978 as a research authority and its activities have covered both requirements of the Army of the Czech Republic as well as the civilian sector. The VTÚPV Vyškov Division specializes in equipment, material and technologies of the ground forces. It solves tasks ranging from theoretical analyses and applied research and development to the prototype production phase, testing and validation, and small series production. It is an accredited testing laboratory for testing products and systems; it operates as an accredited certifying body for a large number of products. Since 2003 it is a part of the military repair shop VOP-026 Šternberk, s.p. (state enterprise) founded by the Ministry of Defence. The article enumerates its activities, namely just finishing semi-anechoic hall EMC (electromagnetic compatibility), the most important and most expensive investment project since the late 80s.