Vojenské Rozhledy

Czech Military Review

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Results 181 to 210 of 1451:

Criminalization and Religious Radicalization in Chechnya as Two Main Streams of Development after 1996 and their Influence on Terrorism in Subsequent Conflict

Informational pages

Bc. Martin Janků

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 123-137

The article deals with the disintegration and erosion of originally cohesive Chechen resistance movement during the First Chechen War and following inter-war period. According to the author, the main reasons of this process are criminality and religious fundamental radicalisation. They together produced inner confl icts between fi eld commanders; some of them attacked Russian security forces in neighbouring regions (Dagestan, Ingushetia), even after war had ended. Disintegration processes were encouraged by social deprivation after the first war, by strategical position of Chechnya in relation to smuggling drugs and weapons, stealing rude oil, and fi nally activities of foreign Islamic solidarity fi ghters. All those factors signifi cantly contributed to the outbreak of the Second Chechnya War.

The Expanding Role of China and India in Word Security Prognosis (Prognostic Scenarios)

Informational pages

PhDr. Antonín Rašek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 54-64

The theme of this study is a prognostic reply to the anticipated rise of mentioned two Asian powers from the point of international relations. Their growing power will precipitate consecutive results-the end of American leading role and coming multiple world. Will it produce world's stability or security threats? The author presents several scenarios. All take note of 9/11 attacks and a possible crash of two form of capitalism, democratic in the West and authoritarian in China and Russia. India has a special position. The economic success of those systems is a great chance for humane rights and civil liberties. World's dominance will be divided among the U.S., China, partly the EU, with strong position of regional powers, India, Japan, Indonesia, Iran, South African Union, Egypt, Brazil, Mexico and others. Russia will lose his superpower position, its internal economic and ethnical problems make it weak, and therefore Russia will attempt to form military coalition with China, which will lead to new world's bipolarity.

The Czechs in Afghanistan

Informational pages

RNDr. Nikola Hynek, M.A., doc. PhDr. Jan Eichler, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 88-100

The Provincial Reconstruction Team of Czech Republic operates in very complicated conditions and environment that are in fact hostile. It can't be excluded that growing scepticism, today common among Afghanistan security experts, more or less could affects even Czech members of ISAF missions. This study deals with existing knowledge end experiences of Czech PRT in Afghanistan. It is divided into two parts. The fi rst one concerns with outside and inside factors infl uencing ISAF missions. It brings in details characteristics of geographical, historic ambiances in which ISAF mission are performed. The second part concentrates on tangible experiences of Czech PRT members, both in political and military spheres. Here the authors summarize conclusions and upon them they outline challenges for the future.

A Look at Our Army Ten Years Ago

History pages

PhDr. Antonín Rašek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 173-184

At that time, the base for plural societies in Eastern Europe was founded. Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary joined NATO defence alliance. Serious global threats of economic, military, ecology, social, ethnic, religious, criminal characters were lasting. The important question of proliferation of mass destruction weapons was raised. The analyses of security situations in Europe and the World respectively proved that armed conflicts were mostly internal, in a form of civic wars, but demographically endangering bordering countries. Those threats were only discussed, namely nobody fully realized the threat of terrorism. Defence budgets were reduced, all people wanted to profit from the so-called peace dividends. Czech army was loyal to the state; it was not misused in inner political conflicts, which was regarded as something normal by the majority of Czech public. But there were many problems left, especially the role and engagement of the ACR in the following century.

The Assessment of Political Risks in the Selected Countries: Multivariate Statistical Methods

Informational pages

Ing. Jakub Odehnal, por. Bc. Ladislav Dudek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 111-119

The paper deals with the data were obtained from the set of variables published in the International Country Risk Guide. The variables were as follows: Government Stability, Socio-economic Conditions, Investment Profile, Internal Conflict, External Conflict, Corruption, and Military in Politics, Religious Tensions, Law and Order, Ethnic Tensions, Democratic Accountability, Bureaucracy Quality. To analyse the current situation in selected 140 countries, authors employ multivariate statistical techniques. They classify the analysed countries by means of cluster analysis to prove the existence of differentiated groups. The results were evaluated with the help of a dendrogram. The conclusions indicate that traditional NATO member countries achieve above-average values in the selected variables.

Proper Economic Policy in MoD Department and Problems with Its Implementation

Opinions, controversy

Mjr. Ing. Bohuslav Pernica, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2007, Vol. XVI. (XLVIII.): 89-94

The demands for transparency, economy, efficiency and effectiveness of public expenditures in the Czech Republic are increasing. In fact, this kind of economic policy in the forces has been followed since we joined the EU in 1994, but without much success. Its implementation has not achieved its goals. Some factors lying behind the failure of this policy are showed in this article, as well as some remedies proposed by the author, so that the readers could understand the topics and consequently they support implementation proper economic practice within the Czech Armed Forces. The author is a supporter of wide economy education in defence department, namely for key personnel (units commanders, chiefs of staffs, directors of institutions) and their subordinated personnel preparing materials for materiel allocation. Among others, Mr. Pernica underlines the underestimation of proper motivations of key personnel to behave economically on the part of MoD officials.

NATO Structural Reforms in Practical Terms

Reviewed - Review

Ing. Josef Procházka, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 8-21 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.23.2014.02.008-021

NATO has been permanently adapting to new outside and inside challenges. Lisbon summit in 2010 is one of the very important milestones in this transformation endeavour. Since 2010, the Alliance has embarked on meaningful structural reforms with the aim to enhance effectiveness, improve efficiency of all NATO entities and make the Alliance fit for its purpose. The main objective of this article is to introduce the scope of NATO reforms and their expected outcomes. Furthermore, this article will assess real achievements and draw at least some lessons from a reform implementation process in order to establish best practice in reforming complex organisations.

The Position of the Russian Federation to Western Military Interventions in 1999-2011

Reviewed - Review

Mgr. et Mgr. Lukáš Tichý

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2013, Vol. XXII. (LIV.): 22-41 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.22.2013.04.022-041

On the one hand, Russia is among the countries which often criticize the Western-led military intervention. On the other hand, in the last twenty years, Russia has repeatedly approved using military force by the West against an individual state, endorsed by the United National Security Council. The main purpose of this article is therefore to describe and analyse Russian position towards four Western military interventions 1999-2011. Specifically, the article is focused on two military interventions without UN Security Council mandates (Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in 1999 and Iraq in 2003), the intervention with the expanded UN Security Council resolution (Afghanistan 2001) and the military intervention that was partially approved by the UN Security Council resolutions (Libya 2011).

Russia's New Generation Warfare and Latvia

Nonreviewed - Other

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 112-122

Russia's actions in the Ukraine have changed the security situation in the Baltic region, which makes NATO's long-term presence in Latvia essential for the Latvian Republic. The impacts of Russian actions on Latvian defence policy are discussed in the paper by Mr Janis Berzinš,Managing Director of the Centre for Security and Defence Research, National Defence Academy of Latvia, in Policy Paper, No. 2, 2014. It is a new way of intervention, new-generation warfare, without the employment of armed combats, using mostly influence and coercion, by means of covert operations. Abridged and adapted. The original English text is available at http://www.naa.mil.lv/~/media/NAA/AZPC/Publikacijas/PP%2002-2014.ashx. Even though the study came into being in April 2014, the editors regard it worthy to be published, being timeless and with general validity.

Extremism and Terrorism as Destabilizing Factors of Society

Reviewed - Review

Doc. JUDr. PhDr. Ivo Svoboda, Ph.D., Ing. Michael Hrbata, MPA

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 33-41 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.23.2014.01.033-041

The article defines extremisms and terrorism as eventual destabilizing moments in society. The paper decomposes possible reasons and grounds of their manifestation, the authors point out that certain signs indicate the penetration of extremisms and terrorism into armed forces structures and civil service, by means of concrete persons. At the end they propose general rules and approaches to keep up this topical phenomenon of the present day.

Resources for Defence of the Czech Republic: Perspectives and Opportunities

Reviewed - Review

Ing. František Mičánek, plk. doc. Ing. Vladan Holcner, Ph.D., Ing. Jakub Odehnal, Ph.D., Ing. Aleš Olejníček, Ph.D., Mgr. František Šulc

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 9-21 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.23.2014.03.009-021

The paper is focused on the area of defence sources in the Czech Republic. Within an analysis of the actual situation in military spending in the Czech Republic, some potential approaches are defined to enable the reasonable and transparent allocation of resources for national defence. Based on these approaches, three courses of action are derived in order to deal with current resources inadequacy and instability in defence.

The article is available only in the Czech language. For more information please contact editors.

United States and Russian Federation: Comparison from the Point of their Security and Strategic Cultures

Nonreviewed

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 141-145

Jan Eichler, Lukáš Tichý: USA a Ruská federace - komparace z pohledu bezpečnostní a strategické kultury. Kompletní analýza bezpečnostní a strategické kultury USA a Ruska v letech 1991 až 2012. Brož., 318 str., ISBN 978-80-87558-16-4.
Backed by the current history, the monograph explains different ways in which the USA and the Russian Federation use their power. A large part is devoted to the concepts of strategy and the strategic culture, militarism, mental model or smart power. The attention is focused on Obama´s vision to have a world without nuclear weapons, as well as the Prague treaty for the reduction of strategic nuclear weapons, and Obama's restraint and caution in using military force for achieving political goals. The book analyses strategic and doctrinal documents that constitute a framework of Russian security and foreign policy.

Global Security: System Approach (Barack Obama's First Midterm)

PhDr. Antonín Rašek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 9-37

This extended essay is based upon various sources, among others on May 2010 President Obama's speech at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, where President Obama described his national security objectives. The highest priorities of U.S. national security are the safety of Americans at home and abroad and achieving a peaceful, stable world through global cooperation despite a flawed international system. The Obama's security strategy relies heavily on diplomacy and engagement, economic development and other methods of influence, along with U.S. military capabilities with global reach and unsurpassed resources. As we face multiple threats, from nations, non-state actors and failed states, America will maintain the military superiority that has secured country, and underpinned global security, for decades. The security strategy is global, and identifies an array of real or potential security challenges that include: countering violent extremism and insurgency; stopping the spread of nuclear weapons and securing nuclear materials, resolving and preventing conflict; and reducing destabilizing risks to economic interdependence.

Why to Afghanistan? Skills, Money or Ideals?

Reviewed - Research

Mgr. Jitka Laštovková, Ph.D., plk. PhDr. Kateřina Bernardová

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 40-50 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.23.2014.04.040-050

The motivation and professional values of soldiers involved in Other People's Wars is one of the most important knowledge necessary for effective command and control. Those were main reasons for an extensive questionnaire survey among soldiers, deployed in PRT ISAF in 2010-2011. One of the key topics was motivation to leave for Afghanistan, professional expectations and evaluations of external and internal environment of the mission. The purpose of this paper is to present the basic outlines of values of today's Czech soldiers, their professional motives and expectations. The results are interpreted in the context of Moskos' theory of the contradiction between institutional and occupational orientations of present armed forces and adapted to the actual social and political state of affairs.

Armed Conflict and Relations of its Economic Analysis

Reviewed - Review

Ing. Aleš Olejníček, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 22-40 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.23.2014.02.022-040

The topic of this essay is an insight into the interrelations of the economic analysis of armed conflict. The author tries to explain its substance and importance and at the same time he warns against the difficulties with its implementation. Backed by several studies, we must conclude that there is a lot of confusion in terminology we use. It is therefore proposed to apply cost-benefit analysis, so that we could create a unified terminology and simultaneously to use this analysis to present armed conflict economy in terms of overall expenses vs. likely benefits aroused by respective armed warfare.

Islamic Terrorism of Jemaah Islamiyah Organization as a Today's Topical Threat

Reviewed - Review

Ing. Michael Hrbata, MPA

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 42-49 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.23.2014.01.042-049

This paper refers about the threat of Islamic terrorism, its roots, motives, as well as its origins. Namely the author informs about the Jemaah Islamiyah, Islamic organization, which is less know in the Czech Republic. Indonesia has a larger Muslim population than any other country in the world, with approximately 202.9 million identified as Muslim (88,2 % of Indonesia´s population). It is generally regarded as a tolerant country, in which various religions living side by side without larger problems. Nevertheless even here the danger of violent Islamic terrorism has arisen. The theme is treated in a proper historical context, with regards to possible impacts on security situation in the world.

The Czechoslovak Independent Brigade of Jan Žižka in Yugoslavia - Neglected Component of Anti-fascist Resistance

Nonreviewed - Other

Ing. Pavel Zona, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 146-153 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.23.2014.02.146-153

During the Second World War, the Czechs and the Slovaks joined anti-fascist resistance on many fronts. The battlefield in the former Yugoslavia was in terms of numbers of combatants third most important. The relationship of politicians, historians and media, to various components of our resistance reflected changes in the political orientation of Czechoslovakia, or the Czech Republic. The share of the Czechs and the Slovaks, settled in Slavonia, in the liberation of Yugoslavia and the defeat of Germany was always "politically" complicated. But nobody can dispute its importance and scope, heroism of members the National Liberation Army of Yugoslavia, natives of Bohemia, Moravia and Slovakia. In October 2013, we marked the seventieth anniversary of this unit.

Information Operations on the Background of Contemporary Armed Conflicts

Reviewed - Review

Mjr. Ing. Tomáš Novák

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 51-62 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.23.2014.04.051-062

The article presents the theory of information operations on the background of contemporary armed conflicts in Ukraine, Iraq and Syria. In the introduction, information is presented as a phenomenon and the accelerator of social development. It outlines basic information channels that deliver security information to their recipients. Furthermore, the article discusses security and operational environment and also vulnerabilities being caused by increasing dependence on information. The core of the article are information operations presented in theory with the author's commentary on real application in military practice and in terms of the Czech Armed Forces. As part of information operations are subsequently introduced psychological operations, computer network operations and electronic warfare. The article ends with real examples of information and psychological operations in modern warfare, and conditions of their management in the Czech Armed Forces. The conclusion summarizes the general idea of the security environment and information operations, and stresses the importance of information operations in current and future conflicts.

The Famous Czechoslovak Legion

Nonreviewed - Other

JUDr. et PhDr. Jaroslav Padrnos, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 152-169

The Czechoslovak Legion was a revolutionary armed force formed abroad that had come into being during World War I. It is said that without this force, there would be no independent Czechoslovakia. Without a foreign political, diplomatic and military resistance of the Czechoslovak National Council, headed by Prof. Dr. Tomáš Garrigue Masaryk, Doc. Dr. Edvard Beneš, and Brig. Gen. Milan Rastislav Štefánik, there would be no Czechoslovak Legion. Even in the hard times, the large majority of legionnaires were always true to the Czech and the Slovak nation during World War II, and after the war. But after the February 1948, those nations, officially represented by the Communist Party of Czechoslovakia, were not true to them.

Horizon 2030: The Risk-Laden Future of Global Security

Reviewed - Review

PhDr. Miloš Balabán, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2013, Vol. XXII. (LIV.): 69-87 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.22.2013.02.069-087

The article analyzes several key conclusions of US National Intelligence Council's study "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds", published in December 2012. Primarily it focuses on: the diffusion of global power influencing political, economic and security development on both global and regional scales; rising importance of the Asia-Pacific region for global economy and security; Sino-American security relations; the role that the United States and Europe should be played in the changing geopolitical reality. The conclusions offer the author's own interpretation of certain development trajectories, based on his earlier published monographs, studies and articles.

NATO and Energy Security

Nonreviewed - Other

Ing. René Nastoupil, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 31-43 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.23.2014.03.031-043

The article deals with the reasons why NATO is interested in energy security and main tasks which Alliance fulfils in this area. A special attention is paid to the energy dependence of the European member states of the Alliance, the increase of awareness about energy security, critical energy infrastructure protection and energy efficiency in the armed forces. The author elaborates the implementation of the energy security issues into the Alliance main activities, education and training in the field of energy security and cooperation with partner countries, other international organizations and private sector.

The article is available only in the Czech language. For more information please contact editors.

Milan Rastislav Štefánik - Scientist, Soldier, Diplomat and Politician An Unconventional Look

Nonreviewed - Other

JUDr. et PhDr. Jaroslav Padrnos, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 154-163

The life and work of General Dr. Milan Rastislav Štefánik is without doubts the life and work of one of the three leading crisis managers of extraordinary skills operating in an enviroment of first escalating global crisis of the 20th century. The phenomenal result of their activivities was the establishment of the Czechoslovak Republic. The author concludes that Štefánik´s work is timeless, from which we ought to draw a continual inspiration.

Logistics Interoperability: A Prerequisite for the Optimal Building and Employment of Capabilities in Alliance Expeditionary Operations

Reviewed - Review

Plukovník Mgr. Roman Dufek, doc. Ing. Miroslav Pecina, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 76-86 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.23.2014.02.076-086

Changing security environment and the need to address conventional and especially asymmetric threats and risks, wherever they occur, establish clear requirements on the development of national capabilities. Armed forces are required to be fully deployable and sustainable in operations in austere conditions for an extended period of time. In NATO-led operations currently participate many nations of different sizes, force structures, equipment, training and capabilities. The only way to reach operational goals while achieving economies of scale is a mutual cooperation of all involved participants. Basic key prerequisite for such cooperation is interoperability.

The Future of Czech Defence System

Reviewed - Review

PhDr. Antonín Rašek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2013, Vol. XXII. (LIV.): 113-130 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.22.2013.01.113-130

Methodically, presented study comes out of a book by Martin Potůček at al. Studying the Future as a Challenge. Its author offers a comprehensive characteristic of several fundamental challenges to social forecasting. It begins by defining forecasting as the formulation of conditional accounts of possible futures. The main forecasting theme to be solved are as follows: ageing Czech population as a security problem, corruption, criminality, organized crime as a tool of political and economy instability, the marginalization of Czech Armed Forces in context of globalization and overall European defence, possible threat of the collapse of Czech defence system.

Did the Allied Victory in World War I Comprise Also Winning the Peace?

Nonreviewed - Other

PhDr. Karel Straka, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 170-176

The First World War was a global war centred in Europe that began on 28 July 1914 and lasted until 11 November 1918. From the time of its occurrence until the approach of World War II, it was called simply the World War or the Great War. In America, it was initially called the European War. The immediate trigger for war was the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria, heir to the throne of Austria-Hungary. This set off a diplomatic crisis. Within weeks, Europe was at war and the conflict soon spread around the world. It was one of the deadliest conflicts in history, paving the way for major political changes, including revolutions in many of the nations involved.

Operational Concepts and Armed Forces Use in the Future Operations

Reviewed - Review

Podplukovník gšt. Ing. Ivo Pikner, Ph.D., Mgr. Lukáš Dyčka

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 81-89 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.23.2014.01.081-089

The article explains the meaning of strategy documents covering forces' deployment in future operations, i.e. operational concepts and aspects of their development. The authors concentrate first on approaches to their optimal structures and use history examples taken from both Alliance and Czech environments. Secondly they discuss the latest initiatives of this kind in NATO, the formation of a document under the title "Framework for Future Alliance Operations (FFAO)". After its approval, this document is going to be a crucial groundwork for all defence planning, not only in the Alliance scope, but in every member state. The scientific attitudes and employed methods of introducing the FFAO are closely watched by the Czech security community, mainly by the specialists of defence department, with the aim to adjust them into the processing of individual national documents.

Theory of Peace as a Contradiction to War Science

Reviewed - Other

Doc. PhDr. Felix Černoch, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 133-141 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.23.2014.04.133-141

The peace is a state of affairs among states, nations and mankind, characterized by a friendly coexistence, solving matters in dispute by means of negotiations and accords, without use of armed and physical forces or psychological coercion. For preserving peace it is important to respect state sovereignty, independence, the right of nations to define their own courses. The theory of peace, dealing with those items, being introduced by the following article, is called paxology.

Common European Armed Forces: Reality, or Utopia?

Reviewed - Review

Plukovník gšt. Ing. Zdeněk Petráš

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 101-108 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.23.2014.02.101-108

The consequences of economic recession and their impact on national defence budgets can indeed heavily hamper the credibility of both NATO and the EU. A need for coping with budget restrictions and ongoing security crisis in the Ukraine re-opens the issue of common European armed forces as an effective tool for keeping security stability not only in Europe, but also around the world. However, the key issue is to what extent it is feasible to develop autonomous European armed forces operating independently of transatlantic allies, while there is a very strong NATO-EU interconnection in the area of military capability development.

Topical Reflections over Nations Bounded by International Law

Nonreviewed - Other

JUDr. et PhDr. Jaroslav Padrnos, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 3-7 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.23.2014.02.003-007

Respecting rules of international laws is indispensable to guarantee a peace balance among forces of all states. It ought to be in their own interest. By and large, the flagrant breaking of those rules and acts of aggression correspond directly to the military power of individual states. Examples are abundant. This essay deals with the definition of aggression that was adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on December 14, 1974.

Selected Problems of Intelligence Analysis

Reviewed - Review

Doc. Ing. Oldřich Horák, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 121-127 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.23.2014.01.121-127

The ability to deliver information about an incident, long time before it has happened, puts intelligence analysts into the very first line of fight against the threat of terrorism, extremism, proliferation, or activities of alien services. The article deals with some aspects of intelligence research that often influence the value of final reports, presented to their consumers. It analyses intelligence database designated for its end users. It simultaneously reflects the question of indications and warnings against opponent's surprise attacks. Last but not least, the purpose of this article is both to attract the readers´ attention to this theme and also to start debate on the methods of predictions of future threats, drawn up by analysts´ teams, as their reports are not always suitably recognized by their end users.

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