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This article aims at building a bridge upon a gap, which separates academic sphere and intelligence community in the issue of predictive methodology. The author tries to accomplish this objective by presenting intelligence predictive methods based on open-source literature research. First, the question of uncertainty and probability in prediction is introduced (Cynefin template). Then follows basic introduction to predictive methods in civil and military intelligences, so that the reader might grasp the fundamentals of early warning systems. The academics and above all journalists should know the risks and perils in forming intelligence forecasts, estimates, foresight and warning scenarios, e.g. the so-called Black Swan scenario, the author explains potentials failures of the Delphi method. This study ought to be regarded as an introductory to predictive intelligence concurrently done by governmental agencies for purposes of national security and defence.

The author summarizes in several items the history of service PT both before 1990, in the 90s, and finally at the beginning of this century. What tasks are in front of us? First we must create legal basis for a new conceptual frame of service PT; secondly we must form new methods of drills and training for servicemen in special PT skills, with risk exercises, corresponding to warfare and combat situations, backed by respective legislation. The author hopes that our own practice and experiences from abroad of MoD officials will certainly help to create new alternative concepts together with indispensable recreational PT for soldiers, including appropriate forms of physical training for women in uniform.

The article deals with the disintegration and erosion of originally cohesive Chechen resistance movement during the First Chechen War and following inter-war period. According to the author, the main reasons of this process are criminality and religious fundamental radicalisation. They together produced inner confl icts between fi eld commanders; some of them attacked Russian security forces in neighbouring regions (Dagestan, Ingushetia), even after war had ended. Disintegration processes were encouraged by social deprivation after the first war, by strategical position of Chechnya in relation to smuggling drugs and weapons, stealing rude oil, and fi nally activities of foreign Islamic solidarity fi ghters. All those factors signifi cantly contributed to the outbreak of the Second Chechnya War.

In spite of the fact that it is a new concept, it presents one of key methods of international engagement in crisis areas the EU prefers. Its main components are crises prevention and securing stabilization. Security tasks are composite problems solving one of main state functions: to guard external and internal security together with principles of civil control. This essay among others aims to explain practicability of the EU's concept of preventive engagement as a tool of implementation of the European Security Strategy, further it describes European concept for crisis management missions in the field of civilian administration supporting security and justice. At the end there are some recommendations for the Czech Republic how to form capacities for EU missions and for the transformation of Czech security sectors.

The author discusses the issues surrounding the construction of modern logistic support for the Czech Army as it transforms from a conscript to an all professional force of agile, light forces, with high reliability and low support requirements. The basic philosophy is to create comprehensive system that would offer complex service for a commander in the field of materiel, technology and medical services. The logistics reform must be supported by enhancing communication systems (Information Logistics System) and by seeking the ways of rationale savings, to reach the highest level of compatibility with logistics systems of other NATO nations. "Time Based Competition" and "Time Compression" must be accepted at all levels of logistics system both in peace and field conditions. In the future, the security problems will be managed more by civilian means than by hard force. The goals will be political, economical and cultural. Those changing threats will ask logistic support to be more flexible, mobile, integrated, compact and precise.

The author discusses the issues surrounding the construction of modern logistic support for the Czech Army as it transforms from a conscript to an all professional force of agile, light forces, with high reliability and low support requirements. The basic philosophy is to create comprehensive system that would offer complex service for a commander in the field of materiel, technology and medical services. The logistics reform must be supported by enhancing communication systems (Information Logistics System) and by seeking the ways of rationale savings, to reach the highest level of compatibility with logistics systems of other NATO nations. "Time Based Competition" and "Time Compression" must be accepted at all levels of logistics system both in peace and field conditions. In the future, the security problems will be managed more by civilian means than by hard force. The goals will be political, economical and cultural. Those changing threats will ask logistic support to be more flexible, mobile, integrated, compact and precise.

It is an information study about sociological research completed among Czech servicemen, former members of military missions abroad, under the aegis of the rector of the University of Defence. The research goal consisted in finding causal relationship between missions and breakup rates. Among others it was determined that for breakups were predispositions even before partners went to missions abroad. A total of 3 % stated they wanted to escape from family problems. Partnership after returning home broke up in 15.6 % of questioned veterans. Research should provide cornerstone data for a proposal of concrete measures for reducing divorces and partings. The stratified sample consists of 348 respondents from the ACR who took part at least in one mission abroad and were married, or lived in long-term partnership. Data collection lasted from July to October 2008.

The theme of this study is a prognostic reply to the anticipated rise of mentioned two Asian powers from the point of international relations. Their growing power will precipitate consecutive results-the end of American leading role and coming multiple world. Will it produce world's stability or security threats? The author presents several scenarios. All take note of 9/11 attacks and a possible crash of two form of capitalism, democratic in the West and authoritarian in China and Russia. India has a special position. The economic success of those systems is a great chance for humane rights and civil liberties. World's dominance will be divided among the U.S., China, partly the EU, with strong position of regional powers, India, Japan, Indonesia, Iran, South African Union, Egypt, Brazil, Mexico and others. Russia will lose his superpower position, its internal economic and ethnical problems make it weak, and therefore Russia will attempt to form military coalition with China, which will lead to new world's bipolarity.

In 2007, Karolinum, Publishing House Charles University Prage, released the book "Chapters on Security" by renowned security experts and analysts Messrs Balabán, Duchek, and Stejskal. The authors deal with main components of Czech national security system: armed forces and police, integrated rescue system, intelligence services, municipal police and private security agencies (the role of which in national security system is underestimated). The book also describes the UN and other international organizations, NATO, EU and OSCE, together with their security strategies. The world state of affairs is serious, namely with the relation to terrorism after 9/11 2001 attacks. The old security concepts are being re-evaluated, simultaneously with new risks classification, e.g. in the context of the so-called Copenhagen school (theory originating in Copenhagen, Denmark). It is a descriptive publication, by its structure targeted above all for university students, but suitable for readers who are interested in security problems.

It is a point at which attacking forces are unable to continue their attack or even defend themselves, because do casualties, shortages of fuel, ammunition and rations, and sheer physical exhaustion. This sequel article deals with the theory of the operational art focusing on the culminating point operational concept. The article emanates from Carl von Clausewitz's ideas and concepts described in his book "On War", doctrinal publications analysis and study projects of the operational art theorists. It treats conditions influencing achievement of the culminating point on single levels of war-strategic, operational and tactical and highlights coherences and factors having fundamental influences on culmination. The article is accompanied by several graphs describing this theory in detail. Key words: Culmination, Culminating Point, Zeroing, Intelligence Preparation of the Battlespace, Campaign Planning and Developing Operations.

Suicide bombing represents a low-cost, low-tech weapon that is readily available, requires little training, leaves little forensic trace, and strikes fear into the general population. Almost exclusively, suicide bombers emanate from distinct ethnicities and religions; furthermore, recent history indicates that they come from the Arab/Muslim or East Asian cultures. As important as the suicide bombers are the activists and sympathizers who offer them support and comfort. These activists may recoil from committing acts of violence themselves but may sympathize with those who do, and offer moral and material support. This article explores the psychosocial aspects and methods of suicide bombers in general, but with particular focus on those operating in Palestine, Moscow (Chechen guerrillas, 2002), Singar (Iraq 2007).

Like hundreds of millions of other people, Islamic terrorists and their supporters use the Internet. In many ways, the Internet is a tool tailor-made for these Islamic extremists, who use it covertly and overtly to plan attacks, raise money, and spread anti-Semitic and anti-American propaganda written in English, Arabic, and other languages. There is sufficient information to believe that in the future, terrorists may even turn the Internet itself into a weapon, using it to wreak havoc on America's critical infrastructure. Because these militants are global, rather than being located in a single geographical area (Pakistan, Indonesia, Somalia, Iraq), the Internet provides them with a new and effective way to attain their goals. It may be difficult to catch extremists planning or coordinating an attack if they are using encryption, steganography, or some other method of hiding their online activities.

In recent history, German armed forces have been transformed into a modern, international recognized force, so has its logistics. Readiness became a major issue and soldiers suddenly had to be prepared for a broad variety of international missions, predictably supported by military logistics that newly cooperates with a private sector. The main logistics control and management centre is situated in the port city Wilhelmshaven. The Centre is responsible for planning logistics operations, their coordination both home and abroad. The newly created department for supply chain management is going to streamline supplies, to increase efficiency of the whole supply process. By means of several schemes the authors explain flows of materiel and supply routes tied with civilian companies (e.g. HIL GmbH).

The paper deals with the assessment of extremism in connection with the Czech Armed Forces. It analyses attitudes of various forms of Czech domestic extremist movements to the military sphere and possible impacts of the infiltration of extremists into the army, namely in time of danger (training militant activities, including paramilitarism, subversion, espionage, etc). The most important problem of the contemporary Czech counter-extremist policy in this area is the rise of neo-Nazi activities in the armed forces and the establishing of extreme right paramilitary units which take interest in the engagement of soldiers. Even though these activities are limited in our country, the author offers overall survey various obscure organizations, having connections to foreign groups sponsoring their Czech counterparts.

The Military Technical Institute of Ground Forces (VTÚPV) Vyškov was established in 1978 as a research authority and its activities have covered both requirements of the Army of the Czech Republic as well as the civilian sector. The VTÚPV Vyškov Division specializes in equipment, material and technologies of the ground forces. It solves tasks ranging from theoretical analyses and applied research and development to the prototype production phase, testing and validation, and small series production. It is an accredited testing laboratory for testing products and systems; it operates as an accredited certifying body for a large number of products. Since 2003 it is a part of the military repair shop VOP-026 Šternberk, s.p. (state enterprise) founded by the Ministry of Defence. The article enumerates its activities, namely just finishing semi-anechoic hall EMC (electromagnetic compatibility), the most important and most expensive investment project since the late 80s.

The study analyzes the key features of Russian policies in the late 2000s and their prospective developments. It is above all the rise of Russia's economic power, boosted by the favourable rising trend of energy prices (oil and gas) that has helped to resume again the position of one of the key world powers, obsessively pursuing its geopolitical interests in a new emerging multipolar world. This also determines its relations with other major global actors, e.g. the U.S., the EU, and China (outlined in this article). As far as military budget is concerned, it is increasing. Russia has overcome a long period of stagnancy. After 2007, they re-established strategical patrol flights off Russian territory; great effort is aimed at power projection, as a means to secure natural resources beyond Russian boarders. The study is closed by Russia's geopolitical prospects till the year 2020. and its Anticipated Development

The very modern trends in the forces of advanced countries are hiring private civilian companies, private enterprises, in everyday performance of armed forces. As this phenomenon is very frequent, the authors decided to go into its roots, to find a common cause of this fact. In the past, armies were closed societies, self-sufficient, independent from states. Today, gradually, soldiers became more concentrated on key military tasks and supporting functions are transferred to private companies. The German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) takes over mechanics used in private sector: it integrates economy dimension. Above all, it is transparency of bookkeeping, which ought to give evidence on savings in everyday life of forces. The Bundeswehr uses the so-called Market Testing, as a means of practical cooperation for engaging private capital. All those fact are cited as thoughprovoking.

This opening study is written by two authors, members of Centre for Social and Economic Strategies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University Prague, which is an interdisciplinary research and education unit engaged in the development of theory, methodology and practice of exploring possible futures, and the application of analyses and forecasts in decision making. The authors propose to supplement prognostic scenarios by the so-called wild cards that represent something unpredictable, extra players or actors taking part in a global politics. They compare wild cards of 2001 with the present-day situation, and then predict state of affairs till 2040, among others, the islamisation of Europe and hispanisation of the United States. The purpose of this is to promote dialogues between military and security experts, politicians, civil servants, civil sector activists, as well as individual citizens.

Military professional terminology is a special vocational vocabulary used within armed forces, usually only partially understood by outsiders. The author demonstrates several most notorious examples to draw attention of terminology specialists. They are special vocabularies of military and security affairs, such as human resources, integrated MoD, recruit, recruitment, air wing, air base, strategical/tactical levels, names of organizational military structures, battalion, company, regiment (in fact they differ from nation to nation) task force, defence planning and planning of defence, to name at least a few. In spite of several translated AAP publications, generally, those terms are used in a different way. The author calls for creating more cohesive terminology. He intentionally does not put his own proposals, he only appeals to leading military officials to enforce the unified and accurate military terminology. It is high time to solve this task, namely within the frame of a lifelong education of military personnel.

This article presents main ideas of the document, released by the Allied Command Transformation in March 2007. Terrorism and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction will be the principal threats for NATO. Further threats will come from unstable or failed states, regional crises and conflicts, growing availability of advanced conventional weapons, misuse of emerging technologies and disruption of flow of vital resources. India, China and Russia will be key players in future security environment. North Korea, Iran and Syria will present biggest threat to NATO. Following the release of the FSE Study, International Military Staff and defence planners will assess the implications for NATO forces. The purpose of this study is to offer professional views as starting point for solving prospective problems and threats.

Today we use the Space for military and commercial satellites of passive, non-offensive character. The prospective so-called militarization of Space has qualitatively higher level. It means that offensive means will be located in the Space, probably as part of ballistic missile defence. Antisatellite systems began to be tested in 1959 (US), in 1968 (USSR), or in 2005 (China) respectively. The US administration places emphasis on limited character of created antimissiles defence. In fact, the presentday laws do not ban situating cosmic weapons in the Space. But whereas the United States regards existing agreements concerning the Space as sufficient, explicitly the Russian Federation and China point out that e.g. the Cosmic Treaty of 1967 is inadequate and insufficient and therefore among others they block the signing of Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty, important for the USA. The author presents and summarizes main treatises concerning the Space: Outer Space Treaty (1967), Convention on the Registration (1975), Moon Agreement (1979) and others, all of them hardly known to ordinary citizens.

The selective PT is inseparable part of service physical training. According to the Directive published by the Fist Deputy Defence Minister, service physical exercises take place during "working hours", and are regarded as regular "work". In our army, selective PT is a new term that runs parallel with service PT and therefore must be treated in a respective context. Service PT is divided into: (i) basic PT and (ii) special PT, while selective PT covers disciplines such as military sports games, championships, sports days, preventive physical rehabilitations, one-off events, at home or abroad. The presence of soldiers at selective PT is optional, voluntary. The participation in such events can't be regarded as performance of military profession. Even though our selective PT is regulated by several norms, the author asks drafting more precise rules, as there is still confusion about some of its aspects.

New technologies influence not only social advance, but also the development of armed forces. Present-time warfare is resolute, dynamic. In the 21st century, both low and high intensity conflicts, counterterrorist or stabilization operations might take place in urbanized areas, where casualties and material damages are high. New weaponry and technology make demands on military and professional training, self-control, psychic preparedness. In advance we must set rules governing the firing of weapons and use of force namely by soldiers involved in peacekeeping and counter-insurgency situations. Mental stress, emotional, or physical strain or tension of soldiers are manifested by fanaticism, looting, killing non-combatants, desertions or going away from military units without permission (AWOLs), depressed soldiers inflict wound on themselves, they misuse drugs or alcohol. The author cites factors increasing soldiers' resistance: high cohesion of units, tough training, relaxation, courageousness, high awareness of objectives of operations and war aims.