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The China's impact on world affairs is growing and will grow further in decades to come. Those years will be critical for Taiwan, and for its relationship with other states. Three related factors determine the texture of this interaction: the policies evolving in Beijing, internal developments on Taiwan, and the international environment. Beijing has offered Taipei several proposals for reunification. The proposals, including the recent "one state, two systems" proposal, allow Taipei to maintain its social and economic system, its armed forces and its unofficial ties with foreign countries. China's grand strategy is to make war while avoiding the battle. Therefore, Taiwan is to be persuaded that the acceptance of "One China" principle is vitally important for preventing the Taiwanese independence. Otherwise, People's Armed Forces will open an invasion to Taiwan by three successive attacks: (1) high precise medium-range ballistic missiles DF-21C with the aim to suppress air defence; (2) the second stroke would be massive attack with short-range precise missiles; (3) the last stroke ought to be done by cruise missiles. This essay is adapted from articles by Mary C. Fitzgerald and Eric A. McVadon, Armed Forces Journal 11/2005.

At the beginning of August, Defence Minister Alexander Vondra announced his intention to give rise to the White Report of Defence as a document constituting clear vision of country's defence. The Paper will constitute a major overhaul of Czech defence and security policy and will set out the path to more modern, compact and reactive security and defence forces. By cutting the overall number of defence personnel, restructuring the defence estate will achieve cost reductions allowing to address more effectively the challenges and threats of the globalized world. It will allocate a substantial budget for defence, in line with the priorities and choices made for her defence capabilities. It will further reflect themes not mentioned before, such as relations between Common European Defence Policy and NATO alliance, new dimensions of civic security in cases of natural disasters, pandemic, or last but not least - terrorist attacks. The Czech White Report is going to make good use of similar documents of Allied nations.

This paper deals with aspects of intelligence analysis that very often influence the quality of intelligence information utilized by end users. Such analysis requires not only analytical thinking, but also specific experiences of all personnel exploiting collected information. The same body of information may result in multiple analytic products, with different security classifications, time scales, and level of detail. The result of this process is an analytical product - evaluation without any idle speculation and pseudo prophecy. Evaluation and interpretation must describe up-to-date conditions and demonstrate the clusters of future images with alternative developments. Reasonable evaluation reduces uncertainty and makes user's decision easier. At the end the author concentrates on rules of analytical team control and management.

The shift from vocational military service to all-volunteer force (AVF) could be regarded and treated as any other scholarly assignment of project management, so we can get a better look at its bugs and risks. The author applied the Valentas classification of innovation upon this AVF project in the Czech Republic and demonstrates what are main risks for its sustainability. He sees the first cause and effect in the reality that this shift lacks sufficient support by social sciences and humanities. Since 2003, only six per cent of scientists/scholars employed by the Czech Ministry of Defence have been supporting this great change. It is not enough and it makes certain incompetence within defence ministry to reach the factual aim of this move and AVF produces more and more difficulties. According to the author, the professionalization of forces in our country has not meet its main purpose--to raise professional qualities of military personnel, in spite of the fact it originally used to be the prime objective of this process.

The author, director of military hospital base, reacts favourably to the article mentioned above. He would like to add something from the practical point of military commander. In his unit, there is a deficiency of attested graduated surgeons, whereas there are a lot of graduated nurses, rescue workers, because of a wide offer of civil colleges and universities. They study in their leisure time and thus gain higher educational background. In consequence, his unit does not need graduates from Defence University in Brno. He comes to the conclusion that necessary commissioned officers could be recruited from among ranks of non-commissioned officers or sergeants, by means of additional schooling and scholarships, or by recruiting graduates from civilian colleges and universities.

Relations between NATO and the Russian Federation are one of key factors influencing overall policy of the whole North Atlantic Alliance. They are complicated and sophisticated questions still predisposed by the heritage of the Cold War.But there are mutual fears, common security problems they both have to counter. NATO policy must be established upon present-day reality. It is self-evident that there are common fields of common interests in which mutual balance must be reached. There are among others: armament, preventing arms proliferation, halting proliferation of nuclear, biological and chemical agents, antimissiles defence, counter-terrorism, drugs smuggling, open sea security, common peace operations. After two years the Russian-Georgia war started, military cooperation between Russia and NATO was re-established. Separate problem in midterm prospects presents the solving of conflict in Afghanistan.

The deteriorating situation in the Afghanistan region poses a security threat not just to the United States, but to every single nation. It was from that remote area of the world that Al Qai'da plotted 9/11 and subsequent attacks in Europe and elsewhere. Reading news about Afghanistan today gives rise to the question why the situation in this country is such as now really is. Ordinary mass media depict the country often in a confusing manner: Afghanistan as "a country, full of terrorists and uneducated barbarians, longing to destroy western civilization and kill". The author describes bad security situation which presents problem for both coalition soldiers and local Afghanistan population. At the same time we must realize that involved soldiers are exposed every day to asymmetric enemy forces, they stand face to face to mortar danger that could be hidden in for example in every car passing by.

Keynesian economics argues that private sector decisions sometimes lead to inefficient macroeconomic outcomes and therefore advocates active policy responses by the public sector, including monetary policy actions and fiscal policy actions by the government to stabilize output over the business cycle. This paper defines the core of Keynesian economics in the mirror of defence expenditures and their influence on country's economy growth. The main attention is paid to the analysis of military-industrial complex and its pressure on armed forces, as one of most important factors introducing a danger of the so-called militarization of both state economy of advanced industrial countries and their social life.

The artillery of the Army of the CR is indispensable part of Czech armed forces. It will take part in operational activities, in the frame of EBAO concept (Effect Based Approach to Operations), acting in contact with various task forces. To meet those objectives, it must reach highest level of modulability. The article depicts all variants of effective augmentation by artillery firepower, artillery reconnaissance, and close artillery support. It enumerates all possible combinations of this reinforcement. Backed by those acquired specifics, the authors further extrapolate demands for automated control system of artillery fire support.

Problems of crossing abilities are most often defined as the ability of wheeled and tracked vehicles to move on damaged, unrepaired communications or terrain. This ability is determined by the construction of vehicle, terrain qualities, and their classes. Less known are problems of reverse driving. In this case, we do not examine crossing ability, but investigate the capacity of terrain to decompose an overall load of moving vehicle. It is a part of tasks performed by engineer reconnaissance for force movements, as troops make use not only neat communications, but also rough terrains, off main routes. Diagnoses of this kind are performed by the Department of Engineer Technologies, Defence University Brno. Many examples are presented in the American Field Manual "Planning and Design of Roads, Airfields, and Heliports in the Theater of Operations-Road Design".

This article presents trends in actual physical status of Czech population with emphasis to the military population. The battery of standard tests was used to monitor the basic health related parameters. This test battery was applied to large sample demographic groups. The results verify expected trends. Anthropometrical data show that the population reaches critical level of overweight at age of 40. Blood pressure tends to increase more rapidly after age of 45. Strength and cardiovascular fitness peaks at age of 25, followed by steady decline. Although it was predicted that military personnel should reach higher physical fitness level and lower risk factors, there were no significant difference between military and civilian population. Effect of three-month basic training on actual health status is quite positive, it improves body composition, but no special effect on overall strength. Higher levels of physical readiness were found only in small special units.

Had PhDr. Miroslav Purkrábek, CSc. was still alive today, he would be 80 years old. It was on September 8, 2005, that Miroslav Purkrábek, suffered a stroke. This year it has been fi ve years since he died. He was a person who contributed to social sciences on three distinctive fi elds: military sociology, sociology of military health, and sociology of public policy. As a gifted scholar he expected that alongside with disarmament talks and preparing collective defence, especially after the fall of world?s socialist system, that task of the army would shift towards preventive, threatening role. But he even lived to see the moments when military professionals were engaged in real combat, in preemptive conflicts, against non-traditional, assymetric forces of guerrilla character. At the same time he could see that another hypothesis of transition to all professional forces was going be fulfi lled. Unfortunately, the Czech Army was not prepared for this important process, as political and MoD leaders at were occupied by this theme of professionalization only marginally.

The NATO's New Strategic Concept is only starting point to open discussion on a wide range of security problems. At the beginning there is a description of Czech home politics, attitudes of Czech political parties toward NATO alliance. The author explores the history of NATO's identity crisis. In recent years, different security optics of the members splintered NATO. The US wants an expeditionary alliance with a global reach, the Western Europeans hold to a vision of a regional club of liberal democracies, the Central Europeans have a wish so that Washington would stand by them when they will find themselves pressured by Russia. NATO is divided on how to reform its decision-making processes and how to fund and resource its home and away missions. In Afghanistan, the Alliance faces the most difficult operational challenge to date, with a real possibility of strategic failure. The overarching problem is how to define the core business of NATO: cyber defence, energy security, WMD proliferation, stability and reconstruction missions, out-of-area missions, territorial security, enlargement, partnership-building. The discussion over the New Strategic Concept needs to reorder the question how to define NATO's appropriate roles and go from there.

This article addresses vital issues of possible threat of nuclear weapons in contemporary world. First, the general nuclear order-particularly the NPT regime-is briefly examined. Analysis proceeds to a critical exploration of the prospective use of nuclear weapons by small nuclear states and the so-called rogue states. Some attention is also paid to the conflict between India and Pakistan, since these two states are often considered as the most dangerous from perspective of possible use of nuclear weapons. The author considers the threat of nuclear war between great powers and then the threat of nuclear terrorism. His analysis suggests that deterrence between great powers is reliably working. The threat from rogue states is limited by technological difficulties in process of development and production of nuclear weapons and limits of small nuclear arsenals. Even though threat of nuclear terrorism should not be underestimated, this paper argues that technical obstacles and availability of other comparatively cheap methods effectively reduce the terrorists' desire to acquire nuclear weapons.

This article illustrates the troubles encountered with development of the NRF. The NATO Response Force is a highly ready and technologically advanced force made up of land, air, sea and special operations forces components that the Alliance can deploy quickly wherever needed. The NRF is intended to be a transformational force that will not only be able to meet the security needs of NATO in 21st century but also serve as an agent of change whereby all the member nations of NATO will be able to bring capabilities, and concepts of operations into their national forces. Undoubtedly, the NRF will not provide a basis for solving all of complex challenges. But it does offer an opportunity for experimentation and testing-the essence of military transformation-and the forging of creative solutions. The views expressed in this assessment are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of NATO or EU.

The article sums up the evolution of the Czech officers' qualification structure since the start of downsizing in 1990 and provides an outlook beyond 2010. At the early 90's graduate education used to be only for officers. A total of 65 % were holding university degrees. Today this number reaches 98 %, with 3 % holding Ph.D. or CSc. degrees. There is also an increase in numbers of WOs with graduate education, it is 4 %, despite the fact that such qualification is not necessary for them. Authors discuss this evolution and compare it with the ageing of the Czech population and overall academic education system. The gradual decrease of people aged 20-24 till 2020 is an important challenge to reforming recruitment and education of junior officers. The reform is needed to avoid deficits in quality junior officers and consequently the lack of personnel selection for military education at the University of Defence.

At present, MoD department prepares a new method of economic control: budgeting by objectives. The process has two levels. The fi rst level covers all sources control, the second one is restricted to budgeting methods. Our defence department is under the pressured of continual budget cuts, so the leading defence representatives should welcome this new technique which will clearly and distinctly present results of limited defence budgets, both for the army by itself and for country defence. Targeted budgeting will be oriented towards outward institutions (parliament) and inside activities (within defence department). Departmental objectives are to be taken as integrative, supported by IT system linked up with state treasury, offering reliable data about costs and expenses within the Chapter of the Ministry of Defence.

NATO's Research and Technology Organization covers six panels dealing with technology. System Analysis and Studies panel drafted a long-term scientific study "Joint Operations 2030" that was performed for three years under the direction of CNAD (Conference of National Armaments Directors). This study identifies system approaches of NATO further development. Its purpose is recommend remedies for eliminating potential defects in future Alliance capabilities, in the frame of anticipated security surrounding and emerging new technologies. The work was divided into five states: evaluating previous studies, evaluating basic potential, setting priorities, new technologies and the last stage evaluated results reached by means of Multinational Exercise. The final version of this document (Final Report) will be released in next half. By joining JO2030 the Czech Republic underlined its resolution to contribute to the advance of NATO defence potential.

Computer-Aided Logistic Support (CALS) appeared for the first time in 1984 in a common study of US government and American defence industry. The study recommended using technical data in digital form. Further it was changed into Computer-Aided Acquisition and Logistic Support and in 1994 the acronym CALS was changed into Continuous Acquisition and Life-Cycle Support. At present we interpret CALS as the support to all automatized processes with fully digitalized data processing. Among its important tools belong LCC (Life-Cycle Costs) and risk management. It is a vast standardization strategy, covering the whole life cycle, via acquisition process, its support, innovation and product disposal. CALS is supposed to make acquisition procedures in the ACR more effective.

Army rations or preserved foods are used to be normally prepared in field kitchen. For standardization reasons, the forces of NATO nations have agreed on several principles, embedded in STANAG 2937 that is the basic document for nutrition of soldiers, compulsory for all NATO member states. Up to now, as a field food support, the Army of the Czech Republic has had at its disposal only the so-called "combat ration food", offered in two variants. At Jan Bata University Zlín, experts finished the development of pre-prepared meals, i.e. "meals ready to eat" intended to be prepared in field conditions. Basic rations meet all requirements prescribed by the Czech Field Manual Prov-1-1. Emergency rations meet 60 % of required energy value. They are intended to help in crisis situations, in time of lack of food. For handling, packing and traffic grounds, food rations are planned for 25 persons.

This is another publication by Mr. Jan Eichler. It consits of three parts: the fi rst one defines nearly three dozens of basic terms in the field of security, the second one deals with wars in the 90?s, and finally third part concentrates on terrorism. The book has evidently pedagogical bias, with explanatory character. Under the influence of foremost sociologist Ulrich Beck, Jan Eichler interprets risks as ?social phenomena? derived from threats. The author also evaluates wars in Africa, Asia and Latin America, in Serbia or the Persian Gulf, which took place in 1990-2001. There were 120 armed confl icts, with 94 % victims from among civil population (compared with 50 % of WWII and 15 % WWI). In those wars bellingerent parties deployed weapons of all sorts, with the exception of WMD. As far as international terrorism is concerned, the author sees as its primary characterists the absence of warning before terrorist attacks are accomplished.

The article familiarizes readers with theoretical assumptions of planning and strategical decisionmaking in Defence Department and Czech armed forces. The author finds connections and similarities among others with public sector and civilian structures tied with budget spending. The strategical level of planning is a highly complicated and expert procedure. At present, planning process in defence department, within MoD sector, is specifi ed by the Order of Defence Minister No. 33, 2004. In this document, there are highly elaborated principles and rules of planning of activities and development implemented in defence sector. The article is based upon papers and reports presented at the Defence Sources Course, MIDMC 2001-06, Resources Management Institute, USA, held at the Military Academy Brno in 2001, and documents dealing with managerial problems.

Such exercises are regular part of European exercise process that in periodical cycles examines individual capacities of solving crisis situations, conducting crisis operations under methods developed by the EU. European training process does not cover only the preparation of military units, but also those of civil elements (police, rescue teams, diplomats). Since 2007 the exercises have been ran according to a common scenario "ALISIA", with the purpose to practise crisis operations control by commanders and staffs of EU nations, without any means and elements or support by NATO. European exercise process allows to the EUMS to organize and harmonize two exercises of solving crisis situations in a year. Five members of the Czech Army took part in the exercise MILEX 09 last year. They were involved in the operational planning process at the EU OHQ Specialist Staff, CJ2, CJ4, CJ5 and CJ7 departments. The article is mostly based on the experiences of Czech offi cers at the EU OHQ LARISSA.

The article is a polemical expression of authors' opinion over this problem. It is related to the orientation of society, political coalitions, and single states towards higher goals. If we admit that the sustainable development of society is the base for securing a peace and stability, then we can state that the question of security or consecutively country defence cover problems of the whole social system, subsystems and system elements. Strategical decision-making ought to be the highest priority in our society. It is indisputable that such decisionmaking deserves scientifi c support. At the end of this article the authors propose a short algorithmic program for Czech military strategy that is planned for the year 2014 and the concept of Czech army development planned for 2015.

The Provincial Reconstruction Team of Czech Republic operates in very complicated conditions and environment that are in fact hostile. It can't be excluded that growing scepticism, today common among Afghanistan security experts, more or less could affects even Czech members of ISAF missions. This study deals with existing knowledge end experiences of Czech PRT in Afghanistan. It is divided into two parts. The fi rst one concerns with outside and inside factors infl uencing ISAF missions. It brings in details characteristics of geographical, historic ambiances in which ISAF mission are performed. The second part concentrates on tangible experiences of Czech PRT members, both in political and military spheres. Here the authors summarize conclusions and upon them they outline challenges for the future.

Since 2008 national security institutions such as police, fi re brigades or armed forces have been confronted with the lack of manpower. There is impending risk of decreasing in population between 15-24 years, and as those key executive institutions are based upon employees' principle, this fact might disenable each national security institution, supposing this risk would be underestimated. Recruiting campaigns are not sufficient enough. In the near future, this is probably going to infl uence so far strict criteria for recruiting military personnel. According to the author, demographic ageing thus represents one of risks, but up to now the offi cial documents by Czech MoD have not reflected this situation.

The idea of this enquiry into Czech Army logistics was to prove that even under hard conditions originated in permanently changing army concepts, the army logistics still keeps its high standard and responsibility. During transformation, an appropriate organization structure has been created, with working mechanism of logistics support, using motivated and rationale source exploitation. The purpose of an array of transformation in defence sector was to introduce not only new and effective army structure, compatible with NATO armies, but also to change the system of fi nancing forces. The funding ought to be more economical. The article is backed by a longterm study and observation of logistics development in defence sector.

The outcomes of battles and fighting are significantly influenced by weather conditions. Together with other important circumstances they decide a chosen combat strategy, operational art, warfare tactics, and ways of personnel and vehicles deployment; consequently the volume of losses or casualties. The authors recount the establishing of weather service within individual arms, creating fi rst weather charts, they give details on situation in pre-war republic, during WWII, in the 50s, even after the Velvet Revolution in 1989. They mention the names of eminent personalities of Czech Hydrometeorological Service to be honoured and remembered. We must also remind that our Hydrometeorological Service works not only in favour of the ACR, but also for other NATO countries.

The article deals with the Declaration on Alliance Security issued in Strasbourg on 4 April 2009. The author enumerates its main items: reform of NATO structures, improving ability to meet the security challenges, strengthening cooperation with other international actors. Today we are facing global threats, such as terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction; our security is increasingly tied to that of other regions. Deterrence, based on an appropriate mix of nuclear and conventional capabilities, remains a core element of Alliance overall strategy. NATO will continue to play its part in reinforcing arms control and promoting nuclear and conventional disarmament in accordance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, as well as non-proliferation efforts. The author is a strong supporter of Obama's idea of world without nuclear weapons; he hopes that this notion will be also reflected in preparing NATO strategic concept. They are also further points to be stressed, e.g., a cooperative partnership between NATO and Russia.

Risk management covers the identification, assessment, and prioritisation of risks, which is followed by coordinated preventive operations to minimize negative impacts on society. The most demanding is the so-called risk assessment (risk identification, risk analysis, risk evaluation). The Risk Catalogue consists of introductory page, and twenty cards for risks register. With the assistance of this catalogue, defence analysts acquire general knowledge about number of risks and their frequency. The level of risk is calculated by summation according to its probability, gravity, and unwanted effects. In case of defence department, actual tasks are assigned to manage to Defence Ministry, Division, Branch, and Section accordingly. Possible risks are represented at a chart accompanying the article. The purpose of Risk Catalogue, its principles, guidelines for implementation, is to make the work of analysts easier.