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This article describes the basic terms used in prognostics (future studies, forecasting the future, prognosis, prediction, expert) and introduces selected prognostic methods and techniques which could be applied in security area (brainstorming, focus group, trend extrapolation, Delphi method, scenarios etc.). The basic classifications and prognosis typologies are mentioned as well. Particular phases of prognosis making are described too. For the Czech security community the prognosis making has an important potential whose outcomes (of particular surveys) should be manifest in following years. This text has only tried to outline selected methods and techniques for their potential application.

The article deals with the issue of identifying required material reserves, also referred to as strategic or emergency reserves. These reserves are managed by state authority as part of national crisis preparedness. The article explores how scenarios can be used as a method for planning, i.e. determining adequate, realistic, and affordable material reserves. A scenario-based analysis, well proven in the defence planning domain, is identified as a method offering a high degree of analytical rigor and traceability of resulting requirements. Selected planning scenarios clearly must reflect national threat/hazard and risk assessments. They also have to reflect other important national policies, such as those governing economy, industry, health care, or environment. The illustrative conduct of the initial steps of the proposed method is demonstrated using Latvia's security policy circumstances.

The article concerns the issue of arson attacks in Israel.The issue of terrorism in Israel is quite broad, given that it is a very common phenomenon here and Israel deals with terrorism on a daily basis. The paper therefore focuses on incendiary balloons, a weapon that repeatedly caused fires around the Gaza Strip between 2018-2023. It examines their history, their design, outlines the possibilities of their elimination, the advantages and disadvantages of possible technical solutions, and a reflection on the future of their usage.

The annual examination is an integral part of the physical training system of a soldier of the Army of the Czech Republic, which assesses his physical fitness. This assessment provides dual feedback - it informs examinees of how they are performing against normative tables and each other, and at the same time, gives commanders an idea of the current physical fitness of their subordinates. This thesis focuses on the endurance event of the 12-minute run (also known as the Cooper test). Based on data from 2011 to 2021 and nearly 50,000 evaluated tests, the potential effects of age on soldiers' physical performance and appropriate adjustments to individual age limits were examined. The analysis showed that the difficulty setting for achieving the same rating differs for both genders and that there is a different decline in physical performance with increasing age than reflected in current norms. Based on these analyses, a proposal for modifications to the annual physical training test was developed and is appended to this paper.

The selection of optimal weapon systems is crucial for national defense. Traditional empirical methods struggle to address the complexities of modern warfare. This article explores the potential of constructive simulation for informed decision-making in this domain. Simulating tactical operations with complex variables, such as terrain, enemy actions, and system interoperability, provides valuable insights into weapon effectiveness. This enables the optimization of acquisitions in line with strategic goals. Design simulation allows for the exploration of factors difficult to test comparison of armament configurations, analysis of enemy tactics, and optimization of unit composition and deployment, saving costs and time. Simulation enables the safe exploration of even high-risk scenarios.

This article examines the needs and problems of the modern war veterans and identifies factors that may contribute to making them a  high-risk group. It uses data from two questionnaire surveys. The respondents were war veterans leaving active service and war veterans who left active service less than ten years ago. The analysis shows that participation in the mission has a negative impact mainly on the family and relationships, and that the most common problems on leaving active service are related to finances and finding a new job. Further, few factors have been identified that may contribute to a high-risky group: less than nineteen years of service, age under forty, having health restrictions due to active service and leaving service as a decision of the employer.

This article deals with one of the most explosive areas of the world today, which is the Near and Middle East (NMEA) and especially the territory of historical Palestine, where the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (IPC) has been going on for a long time. The text deals primarily with historical and military factors and is written as a historical explanatory analysis. It focuses on the most significant historical events and explains the ways of functioning and the consequences of the processes that have been taking place there for a long time.

The article addresses the issue of the emergence of new technologies and their impact on the capabilities of the Czech Armed Forces (CAF). A summary of the recommendations is presented. In particular, there is a need for a conceptual approach to the integration of new systems in order to avoid spontaneous purchasing, which could be very logistically demanding. The very rapid development in the field of unmanned autonomous systems using elements of artificial intelligence offers opportunities to use them in support of the tasks of CAF. Due to the breadth of this issue, the scope is limited to the area of the Special Forces, which introduce these new sophisticated means into use throughout the Ministry of Defence of the Czech Republic.

Military spending is a widely discussed topic, especially in the current geopolitical landscape. Expenditures on "equipment" play a pivotal role in total defense spending.. However, the nature of the equipment expenditures is cumulative. Thus, when trying to estimate the capability of a state we should consider a longer period, not just one year. The aim of this article is, therefore, to offer (i) an exploratory analysis of the cumulative equipment expenditures of NATO countries between 2014-2023 and (ii) to verify - by using OLS multivariate regression - the extent to which the GDP per capita primarily drives these expenditures (adjusted per soldier), the share of defense spending from the GDP, or by the fraction of defense spending that goes specifically to equipment. The results show that the GDP per capita is by far the most powerful predictor.

Laser weapons have long been the subject of debate. The article discusses the potential adoption of laser weapons by infantry units and the future of small firearms. The text analyses these weapons in selected categories that subsequently support the evaluations and the conclusion. If miniaturisation is successfully managed, the comparison reveals an interesting paradox. While laser weapons and firearms do not rival each other as distinct functionalities, given the right conditions, they can actually complement each other and compensate for any disadvantages within their respective categories. Today's complex battlefield is placing ever greater demands on small arms, pushing conventional weapon mechanisms - combined with ammunition that guarantees accuracy and lower recoil, albeit at the expense of penetration - towards the limits of further possible advancement in technology. Improved passive individual protection restricts the wounding potential of pistol ammunition, reducing it to below 150 m for rifle cartridges, while guided ammunition tends to be prohibitively expensive. Under the right conditions, laser weapons could compensate for any of these drawbacks.

This paper deals with the issue of logistics planning – one of the seven planning domains of defence planning in the Ministry of Defence Department of the Slovak Republic. In the framework of the descriptive research problem, the author was looking for an answer to the question: How is logistics planned in the defence planning system at the departmental level? The article contains the results of theoretical and empirical research carried out on the given issue. The author explains the main theoretical background of the research issue, describesin more detail the methodology of logistics planning in the conditions of the department as well as current knowledge and experience from practice, points out the most significant problems in the field and proposes their possible solutions.

The article presents more than ten years of experience in testing the abilities of pilots during flight control on flight simulators. A hypothesis is stated about the possibilities of finding common features in flight control, the basic mathematical apparatus for evaluation is presented, the flight simulators used and, of course, the achieved results are presented. 110 pilots have already been tested and a total of 2360 missions - test flights - have been simulated. Subsequent mathematical analysis provided approximately 40,000 results suitable for further statistical processing. This amount of data obtained from realistically simulated flights provides a prerequisite for defining applicable conclusions to the proposed mortgages. For the needs of subsequent certification, a proposal for the pile measurement methodology was also prepared, which summarizes both the theoretical approach to pile testing and the procedure for carrying out tests on individual simulators. Part of the proposed methodology includes an overview of the software created to facilitate the recording of data from individual missions, as well as software for own analysis of the measured data from the missions.

Grey Rhino is a metaphor for security threat, which is unkept irrational for large extent also high probability of harmful effect on a subject of risk owner. Business continuity management system is assessed in a diagram as controlling instrument aimed at operational hazard mitigation of continuity disturbance of affected subject. A ´from Operations´ Value Added - O´VA is established as qualitative dynamic information about productivity of activities. The measures are designed in crisis scenario for quality improvement of subject´s crisis readiness. An indicator of business risk continuity slip is defined. In a connection with war conflict on Ukraine is assessed if it is Grey Rhino manifestation.

The article informs about methods and ways of maintenance and repairing military equipment, armament, materiel, for the duration of UN international missions. It depicts the whole system, including personnel duties during maintenance and recovery of materiel in the areas of United Nations peacekeeping operations. Further it explains some maintenance rules and activities done while scheduling the maintenance and repairing scheme, as well as contracted services.

The article reviews contemporary traditional approaches towards the evaluation of ground military vehicles and equipment, oriented on the role and potential of top-ranking officials in this area. The author promotes the introduction of some electronic Log Book for monitoring and rating the operational data of the military equipment, with the help of new General Packet Radio Service module, to improve the effectiveness of operational system, maintenance and savings.

The article deals with the interpretation of the term "armed forces" in the context of the current legal system of the Czech Republic. The authors propose to distinguish between the armed forces in the institutional concept and in the functional concept. The essence of the solution is the interpretation of Section 3(1) of the Armed Forces Act (No. 219/1999 Coll.) in the functional concept, i.e. in such a way that the armed forces are understood to include soldiers assigned to the Ministry of Defence, military schools, the Military Police and the Military Intelligence. Another solution could be to add a paragraph to the Armed Forces Act stating that "The provisions on members of the armed forces shall apply mutatis mutandis to soldiers on active service assigned to the Ministry of Defence, military schools, the Military Police and the Military Intelligence." The aim of the article is initiation professional discussions about the issue in question, as well as indications of directions as to how it would be appropriate to solve the matter.

The guarantee of national defense and the fulfillment of commitments to Allies is highly dependent on its financial source security. The economic recession, which began in 2008 in the USA, negatively affected public budgets. This recession was one of the causes of the reduction of planned defense spendings in the Czech Republic. This reduction caused the postponement of acquisitions, which were to be implemented both with regard to commitments to coalition partners and with regard to maintaining their own defense capabilities. Nowadays, current internal debt is still increasing due to neglecting inflation of military equipment, which is higher than inflation of ordinary goods. Currently, the defense ability is also affected by the pandemic of Covid-19, which caused a slowdown in GDP growth and public spending growth. For this reason, it has been several times postponed the commitment to achieve a rate of 2% of military expenditure of GDP by 2024 and the current plan to achieve it in 2027 is also endangered.

The article is devoted to the draft law on defence financing, which aims to oblige the government to allocate an amount of at least 2% of GDP to defence in every draft law on the state budget. During the inter-ministerial comment procedure, the Supreme Audit Office expressed doubts whether the draft means anything more than an unenforceable political commitment in relation to the Chamber of Deputies". The article convincingly demonstrates, with the help of legal argumentation and interpretation of the Constitution of the Czech Republic, the Rules of Procedure of the Chamber of Deputies, as well as the established case law of the Constitutional Court of the Czech Republic, that if approved, the Chamber of Deputies will also be bound by the Defence Financing Act when approving the state budget. To do otherwise would violate constitutionality.

The article deals with the consequences of changes in society and the army after the "Velvet Revolution" in 1989 for teaching social sciences at military schools. The changes are illustrated by the example of the Military University of the Ground Forces in Vyškov, which trained most of the officers for the ground troops. The first part of the article shows the use of social science teaching at military schools to ideologically indoctrinate students in favour of the ruling Communist Party of Czechoslovakia before November 1989. The next part of the article deals with the reflection of changes in society and in the army after the abolition of the article on the leading role of the Communist Party of Czechoslovakia in the Constitution in the system of teaching social sciences, in their content and scope. The content of the article also shows individual milestones in the process of changes in the teaching of social sciences on the way from their use for communist indoctrination to the formation of democratic army officers.

The article describes an innovative view of a possible methodical process of access and protection against disinformation. The ever-increasing digitization and use of cyberspace to disseminate all kinds of data and information provides users with an indisputable number of associated benefits associated with rapid access, distribution or sharing of current knowledge. However, this development trend also reciprocally generates a number of related threats that need to be faced. Our own resilience and effective tools against information campaigns and information actions of all relevant actors play the key role here. The critical thinking itself and the process mechanisms used to access information are the focus of overall resilience to this type of security threats. Thus, the methodical process can help a wide range of readers broaden their view of the complexity of the problem and partially minimize the associated security risks.

This paper deals with teaching of operations research at University of Defence and its support by means of using selected software for linear programming. The main aim of the paper is to demonstrate possibilities of using the add-in program Solver in Microsoft Excel and Linear Program Solver in teaching operations research via solving an illustrative example of linear programming problem. The paper further introduces operations research as a scientific discipline and a course taught at University of Defence. Last but not least, it discusses advantages and drawbacks of introducing software into teaching of operations research.

Voices about the need to build a joint European Union army have been appearing on the European scene for several years, but recently these voices have become stronger, especially after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Therefore, in the article, the authors deal with the issue of the possibility of creating a common European army. They draw on from socio-scientific political science approaches to current security frameworks, examine the current state, and at the same time point out that, despite the threats Europe is facing, there is still no clear plan for how such an army should be created. Considering the facts mentioned in the article, the authors state that the creation of a common European army, at least for now, seems unlikely, as a supranational model of the European army would require the transfer of sensitive national competences from the member states to the EU level.

The article discusses the current approach of the Czech Republic to the phenomenon of hybrid threats and analyses the fundamental shortcomings that determine the effective management of these threats. As part of a comprehensive approach, the text is supplemented by the current view of the European Union and NATO on addressing the issue of hybrid action by hostile actors. A summary comparison of the approaches of the Czech Republic, the European Union and NATO points to the need for mutual institutional synergy among these entities. Although the current approaches of the mentioned subjects are relatively sufficiently doctrinally anchored, the absence of a complex and especially practically functioning apparatus and specific operational tools that would be able to face a wide range of hybrid threats persists.

The article deals with the preparation of the Active Reserve of Czech Armed Forces, territorial forces in detail. It compares them to the equivalent of the active reserves of the Polish army, namely the Territorial Defense troops. A comparison of the development and preparation of these forces points to the necessity of solving or updating the system of calling up reserves of the Czech Armed Forces, their training, arming and equipping.

Existing research about China and Taiwan deals primarily with bilateral relations, military doctrines, etc. They don't pay much attention to the consequences of the potential China-Taiwan war. The article examines conditions for emerging and activity of guerillas with paramilitant signs in the case of China's domination over Taiwan. The analysis is based on the present general, socio-economic, political, geographical, and technological environment. A substantial part of the analysis is also argumentation about the potential of urban guerilla. The article is based on data, pieces of information, polls and academic and analytical texts relevant to the main research questions. Those questions are the potential for emerging, sustainability, and effectiveness of guerilla. The article comes with findings, that argue the relatively high potential for the emergence of guerilla primarily because of the suitable environment in Taiwan and possible effectiveness and sustainability based on existing variables, which can however also limit this potential.

Authors of the paper present results of research in the area of deployment and operation of multirotors, i.e., autonomous aerial systems with vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) capability. Survey of Czech Army experts' opinions based on the Delphi method points to the significance of MINI VTOL UAS project undertaking - reconnaissance VTOL autonomous aerial system. The conclusion of the analysis is the identification of the primary applications of and requirements for (concept, system, and training) successful deployment of multirotors, with framing of existing issues of technical, acquisition/program and legislative nature, and determination of their importance. The paper also explores experts' views to the acquisition and operation of multirotors in Czech Army to achieve their full operational potential, certainly available in the future battlefield. Inconsistent architecture of information sharing was identified by experts as one of the most important issues with the highest likelihood of solution in the upcoming years.

The Russia has presented the ongoing war in Ukraine by the term special military operation, whose goals were declared by Russian President Putin in terms of demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine. In the wider context, there is an imperial effort of Russia to enforce its power and influence in the region by an offensive and aggressive war. The authors define the fundamental difference between a special operation and the so-called special military operation in the context of contemporary interpretation of the Kremlin. They further argue the way in which Russia is trying to justify the war and discuss its reality in terms of international law.

The war game is a respected tool for commanders' decision-making. Its preparation, execution, and evaluation of results require precise organization and a considerable time commitment. However, the time aspect is a limiting factor in the current dynamic era to a rather objectified evaluation of the variants of operation execution. The article does not describe the process of wargame preparation, it focuses on the execution phase, where it presents the use of a particular simulation system in wargames and under which theoretical conditions the results of combat simulation can be considered valid. It also evaluates the time efficiency of its use in a wargame. It has been experimentally verified that the tested simulation system can be used for a wargame especially in the accelerated simulation mode. The configuration of the computing system was also verified, which allowed a substantial acceleration of the simulation run of the wargame scenario.

Based on the content analysis method, this study analyzes the first ever published security strategy of the Israel Defense Forces, which was published in 2015. The main objective of the paper is not only to present the circumstances of its creation and discuss the main objectives of this strategic security document, but also to outline the broader geopolitical context from which it emerged. The authors argue that the document primarily emphasized two areas - the use of force and capacity building of the Israeli military. Among other things, the publication of the strategy was intended to have a deterrent effect. In the conclusion, the authors compare the Gideon Plan and its follow-up, the Tnufa Plan, and point to the considerable importance that consensus among political and military elites has in the implementation of such a document and reflect on what lessons and inspiration can be drawn from this case in our geographic space in the process of formulating or reformulating strategic security documents.

The article deals with the evaluation of current possibilities of medical support capabilities in the area of Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Defence. The evaluation of national strategic documents shows that the area of providing care in the event of chemical and biological hazards is significantly more developed than in the area of radiation, while the security threats associated with radiation are constantly growing. Analysis of NATO standardization documents in the field of medical support and relevant Czech doctrinal documents was carried out, based on which the diagnostics and triage of irradiated persons, called biological dosimetry, was identified as a potential capability. Using the capability planning methodology and based on the evaluation of the functional areas, a conceptual approach to the development of biological dosimetry capabilities was defined. The presented recommendations also include a proposal for the organizational structure of the Czech Armed Forces biodosimetric network.