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This article describes the basic terms used in prognostics (future studies, forecasting the future, prognosis, prediction, expert) and introduces selected prognostic methods and techniques which could be applied in security area (brainstorming, focus group, trend extrapolation, Delphi method, scenarios etc.). The basic classifications and prognosis typologies are mentioned as well. Particular phases of prognosis making are described too. For the Czech security community the prognosis making has an important potential whose outcomes (of particular surveys) should be manifest in following years. This text has only tried to outline selected methods and techniques for their potential application.

The accession of the Czech Republic to NATO is reflected in the Czech security system, especially in the political, institutional, organizational and legislative areas. The article describes the ways to achieve the NATO key requirements: political, institutional, legislative, defence, resources, as well as information security and public support. In order to become fully capable to consume benefits of NATO membership and fulfil its obligations, appropriate legislative changes must be adopted. Four North Atlantic Treaty Organization pillars had to be integrated: Washington Treaty, defence planning, information security, mutual solidarity.

The article provides partial results of the research Strategic Analysis Methods applicable within the Defence Department of the Czech Republic. This research addresses a low level of use of strategic analysis methods in the development of strategic and conceptual documents of the department. In the years 2017 and 2018, interviews with the processors of these documents were carried out and the problems related to the use of strategic analysis methods in sector planning were analysed. In particular, the article analyses the content and utilization process of stakeholder analysis method, SWOT analysis, future scenarios, benchmarking and GAP analysis.

The article addresses the current state of registration and evaluation of physical training of soldiers of the Army of the Czech Republic. It includes analytical and design part. The analytical part discusses the pros and cons of current evidence of physical training data and identifies the main shortcomings and problems. The article proposes the optimization of the current state through an advanced information system that would cover the current needs of physical education workers and for this purpose is currently created in the environment of the University of Defense in Brno. The article outlines the possible practical use of the information system in military practice.

Strategy and strategic culture influence everyday lives of soldier and military units, as well as the system of their preparation for combats. In case of wars, they have a decisive impact on the destiny of civilian population. The strategic culture of every state has its national, international and historic dimensions. The article explains the criteria of militarism, because those phenomena were typical for a history of some states. First and foremost, backed by the analysis of a dramatic development of the strategic culture of the US during the first decade of the 21st century, the article concludes and explains its core and importance for our contemporary world.

In the previous Military Review we introduced the article "Will Military Deception Pass Away?" by the same author. In the Army of the Czech Republic we have no manual dealing with military deception (MILDEC). The only manual concerning MILDEC was abolished without any substitute. But military art can't be further developed without similar documents. Today we take MILDEC as a complex set of provisions misleading enemy's commanders and staff, by means of false information and counterfeit data that deliberately deceive adversary decision-makers and planners. Use of MILDEC during any phase of an operation also helps to mislead adversaries as to the strength, readiness, locations, and intended missions of friendly forces. The MILDEC could contribute to the successful accomplishment of the assigned mission by many ways.

The article presents possible approaches to solve problems of finding the optimum state of tactical activities within the level of small Engineer Units. The intention is, by elaborating of the partial engineer goal which is focussed on the area of engineer units' tactics, to develop input data/ information needed for further development of mathematical models of the tactical activities. Subsequently, with the judgement on modelling outputs (applicability within C2 activities of staffs' task force structures) from engineer unit tactics point of view, the article contributes to enhancing all of C2 processes effectiveness. The article also provides us with information about the range of facts relative with problems of selected engineer unit (counter-mobility task forces) deployment planning, and controlling. There can be also found inventory of activities appropriate for optimization.

Making use of multimedia, ICT, in a foreign language teachinglearning process is the effective way how to influence motivation and results of the educational process. Based upon the Czech-Canadian Partnership for Learning Program, the project provides synchronous communication between a native speaker and a student during language training, regardless the distance. Mutual communication is an opportunity when the students/learners can use their second language not only in professional discussions, but also in solving problem matters, relevant to their study branch, interests, current events or hobbies. The authors' experience and its analysis form also a part of this paper.

There has never been so much primary data on al-Qa'ida publicly available. Nevertheless primary data are still not used enough, despite the fact that their omission had a clearly detrimental effect on the quality of research on al-Qa'ida. The article's goal is twofold: to lay out an overview of the publicly available sources of primary data on al-Qa'ida and by highlighting interesting aspects of their content to demonstrate their usefulness for the research in general. The article deals particularly with outputs of public institutions, al-Qa'ida's members' publications, al-Qa'ida's members' communication that has been made public and leaked classified information. The topic how to use the sources of primary data will be discussed briefly. The article aims at encouraging the academic and expert community to use primary data more broadly when researching al-Qa'ida.

The new American doctrinal document called National Security Strategy (NSS 2010) was released in May 2010. Generally, NSS documents outline major national security concerns and plans. The NSS 2010 lays out a strategic approach for advancing American interests, including the security of the American people, growing U.S. economy, and international order that can address 21st century challenges. President Obama is stressing global leadership, dependent on strong and responsible American leadership directing it to ensure other nations follow. He urged Americans to revitalize their own economic, moral and innovative strength to continue to lead the world. The essay by Mr. Eichler is divided into two parts: first one deals with Bush's security policy, and second one deals with documents issued during Obama's presidency. There is a departure from Bush's security strategy that had led to two asymmetric wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. There are interesting nuances. The NSS 2010 for example declares the intention to build deeper and more effective partnerships with key centres of influence-including China, India, which represents among others Obama's retreat from policy of unilateralism.

International humanitarian law hinges on the principle of the distinction between combatants, whose function is to conduct hostilities during armed confl ict, and civilians, who are presumed not to be directly participating in the hostilities and, therefore, entitled to full protection from attack. They lose this protection only if, and for as long as they "directly participate in hostilities". After several years of expert discussions and research, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has published the Interpretive Guidance, which aims to clarify the meaning and consequences of direct participation in hostilities under international humanitarian law (IHL). This article is devoted to the explanation of this notion. The presented interpretation follows the Interpretative Guidance published this year.

The contemporaneous security environment is more diverse, dynamic, interconnected and far less predictable than ever. As the major Western militaries undergo continuous changes in missions and tasks, as well as in the form of their organisations, the warfighting abilities of military leaders are not the only ones required. Transformational military leadership, with leaders operating from the post-conventional level of developmental action-logic, arguably become one of the most needed capacities of a military organisation. This type of leadership has to be capable of initiating and leading transformational changes, needed to respond adequately and adaptively to contemporaneous and future security challenges. This article analyses the applicability of transformational leadership to military organisations using the developmental theory and the concept of vertical leadership development as a framework.

The article identifies specific attributes which have influenced duality of training for urban area operations. There are mentioned only the crucial ones. The author was inspired his own experience as infantry unit commander. He used his knowledge gained from military assignments. The article could be considered as topic for future discussion not only on academic but also on specialized level.

There is currently about 1 500 Moroccan citizens fighting for the so-called Daech in Syria and Iraq; that makes the North African monarchy one of the main countries which export radical islam djihadists and supporters abroad to the war-beaten Syrian-Iraqi region. Until 2014 Moroccan officials let them leave the country almost freely, to be precise, they didn´t prevent them from travelling to Syria, Iraq and other proxy war destinations. That´s how have the Moroccan fighters joined the Daech rows fighting in the beginning against the Syrian president Asad. But it seems now that the situation has rapidly changed: the Kingdom of Morocco is currently fighting and closely monitoring its own foreign fighters who are coming back home. Especially such eventual threat is pushing the country for creating a new national security strategy related to this risky minority, which needs to be integrated back to the Moroccan society.

The article deals with experience in closure of military bases in foreign operations. It follows in article Life cycle of military bases in foreign operations, published in Vojenské rozhledy Nr. 4/2009. The text of article presents current knowledge about the life cycle of military bases and general principles from the perspective of the latest NATO Handbook. The theoretical part of the article introduces weighting method of decision analysis, which compares current ways for the field bases closure. Authors describe findings from base closure Šajkovac that significantly influenced removal activities.

The article deals with the use of military police in combat operations during dominance phase.Itdescribes the place androleofmilitarypoliceas combat support units, analyzes experience from previous and ongoing operations and specifies the possible activities of military police during this phase. In conclusion it gives recommendations for the development of capabilities in terms of the activities performed and possible changes in organizational structures. The content of the article is based on thesis prepared by the participant of the 27th General Staff Course at the University of Defence.

This article tries to analyse the employees of central state administration, who are involved in analytical, conception, planning and strategy activities. We organized a research at eleven ministries in 2013, to familiarize themselves with their roles. Only three ministries refused to take part in this research (home office, regional development ministry and agriculture ministry). The results reached describe how examined groups evaluated various factors influencing their analytic and conception performances. The identified state at the Defence Ministry is compared with overall situations at other ministries of the Czech Republic. At the end of this article the author expresses certain suggestions and recommendations how to improve current state of affairs.

Long-term cuts in military expenditures of European allied countries caused growing differences within the Alliance which can be seen in uneven sharing of military burden and in behaviour called free-riding. The aim of this contribution is to define possible approaches to the freeriding identification and to analyse military expenditure development in relation to conclusions and recommendations declared at the NATO Summit in 2014. The results of military expenditure analysis identify only a small group of countries which, from a long-term point of view, follow the recommendations of the Alliance in the form of allocating a corresponding amount as percentage of GDP and in the form of a recommended structure of military expenditures.

The article discusses the process of risk management introduced in 2015 as a result of inconsistent implementation of law no. 320/2001. The authors show the way to identify and analyze a risk, using identification and analysis of assets, followed by threats, thanks to their influence on the assets. They demonstrate the approach to defining risks with second and first level targets in the department of Ministry of Defence, while using risk shifting and aggregation of dependent risks. They describe the application of the risk management process outcomes during goal managers' decision-making in the process of medium-term and annual planning of the department of Ministry of Defence in relation to changes in these processes.

Presented analysis of interviews with officers at various level of command from 2004 - 2008 is aimed on their view of the process of command. On the basis of qualitative research we consider the recent way of command of the Czech officers intuitive and individual. It characterizes most common way to command, based just on experience. We consider differentiation in the way of leading and motivation of subordinates among types of forces and military specializations. The reflection of the professionalization, the training system, the perception of learned/natural ability to command and their career is offered to discussion in the context of changes in direction of education of Czech officers and commanders.

This paper aims to enrich professional discussion on future shape of the Armed Forces of the Czech Republic (AFCR) and is linked to the preceding research and publishing activities of members of the Centre for Security and Military Strategic Studies (CBVSS) at the University of Defence. In its first part, it performs a historical tour to the year 2012 and highlights the reasons that the former leadership of the ACR led to the start of construction work on the concept of AFCR (KVAČR). Briefly describes the interconnection and the hierarchy of individual conceptual and strategic documents, the procedure works on them and summarizes the arguments supporting the need of KVAČR as such. The next section brings potential methodological approaches to the preparation of this document, using the method of the "9S", including practical examples, it renumbers basic strategic assumptions and priorities in various stages, bordered by years 2020 and 2025 as a prerequisite for formulating strategies for achieving this specific goal. Within the document, there is a short excursion into the field of long-term planning for major areas of skills, using their description of DOTMLPFI functional areas, including an example of using this methodology in project preparation of program funding. The recommendations formulated in the article are based on the authors' best experiences with the preparation of documents of a similar type in the years 2003-2013, the recommendations of experts from the broader security community of the Czech Republic, and recommendations of the Alliance. As such, it has been passed to the KVAČR processors at level of the General Staff of AFCR over the years 2013-2014.

The lecture discusses the possible forms and methods for further development of Population protection, focusing on implementation of measures to protect the population at higher crisis status. The aim of the lecture is to analyze possible priorities, resources, and procedures for population protection in serious and large-scale crisis situations using all available forces and capabilities of the State and citizens. The work also deals with the possibility of more effective measures of population protection during announcement of higher crisis status generating additional forces and means and methods for the management of these measures. The aim of the work is among other things to point out the fact that the measures of population protection must be prepared in perspective and comprehensive and must reflect the potential risks, including the large scale crisis, which may be occur in the territory.