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This article describes the basic terms used in prognostics (future studies, forecasting the future, prognosis, prediction, expert) and introduces selected prognostic methods and techniques which could be applied in security area (brainstorming, focus group, trend extrapolation, Delphi method, scenarios etc.). The basic classifications and prognosis typologies are mentioned as well. Particular phases of prognosis making are described too. For the Czech security community the prognosis making has an important potential whose outcomes (of particular surveys) should be manifest in following years. This text has only tried to outline selected methods and techniques for their potential application.

Dear readers,
We are pleased to share with you the text from the "Vojenství doma i v cizině" (Military at Home and Abroad) column, published in our journal in No. 4/1920. This and other historical papers can be viewed, read or downloaded from the website of our journal www.vojenskerozhledy.cz in the Archive menu.

Dear readers,
We are pleased to share with you the text from the "Vojenství doma i v cizině" (Military at Home and Abroad) column, published in our journal in No. 4/1920. This and other historical papers can be viewed, read or downloaded from the website of our journal www.vojenskerozhledy.cz in the Archive menu.

Is Georgia's integration into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) security structures leading to assured full membership? Ever since gaining independence in 1990, Georgia has tried to free itself from Russian influence, focusing on becoming a member of NATO. However, the Georgian journey to NATO is complicated by the country's internal political situation and external relations with Russia. Georgian internal conflicts with breakaway territories supported by Russia led to the Russian invasion into Georgian territory in 2008. Russia suppresses Georgian efforts to join NATO, considers the South Caucasus to be a strategic sphere of interest, and intends to exercise its influence there. Nevertheless, the current Georgian government continues to pursue NATO membership. Key determinants for any invitation to new members are whether their admission to NATO will strengthen the alliance, further the basic objective of NATO enlargement , and increase security and stability across Europe.

Tanks and anti-tank weapons in modernized and innovated forms will still appear on battlefields in the next 20 years to eliminate armoured targets and personnel with the usage of precision-guided munition. The progress of electronation and digitalization of tanks allows better situation awareness on the battlefield and cooperation with other military assets. An active protection measures were introduced to protect the crew such as reactive armour, active defence weapon systems and composite armour. By establishing a safe perimeter with active defence systems, tanks can sustain the incoming anti-tank weapons. Hence is the U.S. Army currently looking for a replacement of 3^rd generation Abrams tanks. The U.S. Army is considering in this case unmanned vehicle as well. The Russian Federation on the other hand enhances conventional tank scheme with modern technologies. Far too much electronation does not have to be necessarily due to the automatic loading mechanism always a step forward.

Rocket technology occupies an elite position in the doctrines of hybrid actors in the Middle East. The thesis of proliferation of tactical ballistic missiles analyses four models - political, technological, substitutional and propagandist-psychological. An effective reduction of ballistic missiles and technologies has been identified in the political model, where sanctions and embargoes limit the proliferation of missile technology. In the technical model, which plays a key role, the limiting factors are those of development and dissemination of high-energy laser weapons. The substitutional model illustrates the application of tactical ballistic missiles as carriers for improvised devices. It is of marginal importance, despite covering targets that involve secondary damage. Studying the model of propaganda and psychology confirms the psychological effect on the population associated with the losses, but it does not affect the reduction of missiles.

The EU Monitoring Mission (EUMM) is the only international monitoring presence operating in the region with the consent of the Russian Federation. However, almost 11 years in the area did not bring the desired result. The Russian Federation has strengthened its position in Abkhazia and South Ossetia with more than 20,000 troops on the ground, hardened the border and even prevented the schools from teaching children in Georgian. Following the assessment on the basis of three criteria (stabilization, normalization and confidence building), the EUMM attempts to increase the confidence building, to mediate among the actors in order to achieve a normal and a stable environment. But on the other hand, EUMM enables also the Russian federation to officialise its presence and its troops in the breakaway regions.

The article deals with selected international treaties, current agreements and international cooperation initiatives in the field of non-proliferation of nuclear and chemical weapons, in which the Czech Republic is represented through specific bodies or ministries. There is also a general description of the view and the specific military approach. The involvement of the MoD and the Czech Armed Forces in NATO structures enables to influence the strategic decision-making in the area of CBRN and thus support the current trends concerning forensic analysis, sampling of CBRN samples and response to new trends in the field of WMD elimination.

The aim of the text is to present the approach to assessing the military potential of the state as well as the will or possibilities to be used to achieve national strategic interests or power objectives. This approach is methodologically based on the sectoral analysis of the state's power potential and its possible projections in the construction and use of armed forces. The described and used approach in the Ministry of Defence of the Czech Republic is applied to the current Russian Federation and its military or power activities

The article discusses the history and present state of instruction in the Arabic language in the Armed Forces of the United States and the United Kingdom within the context of their engagement in the Middle East. The analysis of the evolution of institutions tasked with Arabic language instruction since the end of the World War II mainly addresses the issues of fast language-capacity building and the cooperation between the Armed Forces and the academic sector. The main issue in state-organized instruction in non-standard languages is a discrepancy between the required long-term nature of building of linguistic capacities and an immediate need of states addressing new regional challenges requiring a specific knowledge of new languages.

This review attempts to analyze in detail the specific roles and interests of the key players represented by Pakistan and India in Afghanistan. The focus of individual actors in the South Asian region was focused on identifying key objectives, defining specific national interests and strategies in Afghanistan. The aim of the article is to find out, analyze, interpret and understand information about the power relations of Pakistan and India in relation to the security situation in Afghanistan. The content focuses on the analysis of Pakistan-India relations and their intertwining in Afghan society. The aim is not to relate the content to a generalized theory or known theoretical paradigm of international relations, but to analyze the aspects of the Afghanistan in relation to Pakistan and India.

The article provides partial results of the research Strategic Analysis Methods applicable within the Defence Department of the Czech Republic. This research addresses a low level of use of strategic analysis methods in the development of strategic and conceptual documents of the department. In the years 2017 and 2018, interviews with the processors of these documents were carried out and the problems related to the use of strategic analysis methods in sector planning were analysed. In particular, the article analyses the content and utilization process of stakeholder analysis method, SWOT analysis, future scenarios, benchmarking and GAP analysis.

Dear readers,
We would like to present to you the contributions from the "Prameny k dějinám našeho vojska" (Sources of History of Our Army) column, published in our journal in No. 3/1920. In this column, the journal's editorial staff regularly concentrated their contributions for prospective research. This and other historical papers can be viewed, read or downloaded from the website of our journal www.vojenskerozhledy.cz in the Archive menu.

The Armed Forces of BiH were officially unified in 2005 and are composed of two founding armies: the Bosniak-Croat Army of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Bosnian Serb Army of Republika Srpska. Even though the unified armed forces celebrated their 13^th anniversary in December 2018 and are presented as a success story, the political environment in Bosnia and Herzegovina, particularly in Republika Srpska, does not foster a sense of unity in the armed forces. The paper explores the vulnerabilities that the unified armed forces face, particularly in relation to the process of state building in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The text concludes, that the main concerns for the BiH armed forces include the old equipment, the economic problems of the country and budget constraints, politicisation and ethnicisation - while ongoing nationalism and the unsure future of BiH remain the greatest external challenges.

In conclusion of article in Military Review No 3, 2011, the authors gave notice about a sequel to this article. Today they describe military deception form another point of vies. They depict the creation of false picture, deception in the frame of operational planning. The authors accentuate that not only Asian countries, but also western ones look back to classical works on military art, e.g. Sun Tzu, The Art of War (around 2,000 years ago). Sun Tzu's philosophy recommended a strategic method to win that rarely required actual war. Spies, diplomats, deception, and a correctly organised internal structure were his main tools. If it came to war, he recommended among others to use detailed and elaborated military deception.

This paper deals with the phenomenon of Jihadist foreign terrorist fighters from the perspective of East Central European countries. Over the past decade, the term 'foreign terrorist fighter' has become established in scholarly literature, international law and the popular consciousness. Today, Jihadist foreign terrorist fighters are closely watched globally for the security threat they pose. Although the greatest danger in Europe is seen to be to nations in the west, several cases in East Central Europe - involving terrorists travelling through the region and attempting to radicalise local jihadists - have led Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic to adopt important legislation to eliminate this threat.

The article deals with the applicability of professional soldiers in the labour market after the termination of military service. Its aim is to outline the information about the unemployment of former soldiers and to present the main results of sociological research, which was held among 313 former members of the Czech Armed Forces. Based on the processing of statistics of the Labour Office of the Czech Republic, it was found out that on average 18% of former soldiers of productive age were 8 months without employment during 2008 - 2017. With the help of a questionnaire survey, it was found out that more than a fifth of the respondents were looking for an employment in the civilian sector for more than half a year. The majority of respondents do not perceive the system of preparation for a second career of soldiers as elaborate. They state that the issue of second career was not addressed during their military service. There are possible recommendations for improving the current state of integration of soldiers into the labour market at the end of the article.

The article deals with persistent problems of Czech military policy within 1993-2009, its achievements and failures. A new managerial concept, system planning, programming and budgeting, which superseded a communist central control, was not implemented fully because of governance instability. The office of Defence Minister was held by 11 persons within 1993-2009 (Czech Republic). Among others, it aroused the return of a concept of central planning in 2004, which was not successful, because it was not supported by institutions outside the MoD. The authors propose more transparency in military matters and better cooperation with academic community to prevent the repetition of concepts supporting short-term goals instead of long-term visions.

The global security environment brings forward different and surprising challenges for the armed forces, which require a good training and preparation. One way of sorting out the endeavour is using scenarios, the concept used extensively in the military field, the military field being the initiator of this concept. Military scenario development is the subject of this article, which is going to bring some essential characteristics and propose a working option for elaborating a scenario. The final aim is to help military planners have a good working procedure when developing a scenario in order to create a document updated with warfare evolution and operational planning process ready to respond to all risks and threats. The scenario is a way used by military structures at all levels of military art (strategical, operational and tactical) to get in contact with a probable unknown situation, to assimilate it and to sort it out. The article focuses on the scenario development process and proposes stages and activities that should be followed by a joint operational group when tasked with preparing a scenario.

The fire support is an inevitable prerequisite for the success of combat forces in land military operations and artillery is its key provider. Will it be even in a future complex and uncertain operating environment? The article recalls high requirements on the current ACR artillery and with the use of the Alliance partner's findings, it points to selected aspects that might influence its capabilities development towards the future operations. The article defines artillery as an indirect fire system and clarifies its role and tasks in the framework of joint fire support. It proposes measures to increase the quality of its training and management. It discusses the issue of an operational concept and its importance for the future ACR artillery, together with introducing main trends in areas of its potential development.

Příspěvek se zabývá vybranými bezpečnostními aspekty námořních hraničních linií Státu Izrael. V krátkosti vymezuje současnou organizaci izraelského válečného námořnictva a jeho vybavení pro zabezpečování izraelské svrchovanosti proti hrozbám přicházejícím z moře, včetně zadržovacích operací vedoucích k zabránění šíření zbraní do rukou protiizraelských teroristických organizací. V souvislosti s izraelskou námořní blokádou pásma Gazy je komentována legitimita takového kroku a mezinárodněpolitické konsekvence jejího vynucování. Ekonomické souvislosti přetrvávajících problémů stran izraelské námořní hranice jsou evidentní na příkladu sporu o právo k využití podmořských nalezišť plynu.

During the Arab Spring Revolution, when the protests against the Syrian government began in 2011, Russia was one of the strongest backers of President Bashar al-Assad's regime, backing its right to use force if necessary to prevent or put down an uprising. Currently, the Russian Federation is the power which has most prominently provided a diplomaticshieldforthe Syrian state and bolstered it witharms supplies, although Moscow talks about the need to "balance" between the warring parties in Syria. The main aim of this paper is to analyze the motives of the foreign and security policy of the Russian Federation in support of Syrian President BasharAssad in the background of Russian interests and influence of norms. At the theoretical level, the paper builds upon a combination of conventional constructivism and rationalism approaches, which in relation to the motives of Russian protection and defense of the ruling regime in Syria reflects a number of fundamental knowledge.

Successful protection against Weapons of Mass Destruction and Toxic Industrial Materials is a permanent and current challenge for the Czech Armed Forces Chemical Corps units and formations. Technical and technological improvements of the equipment and material as a result of defence development projects mostly contributed to enhancement of operational capabilities. In some cases, however, the required capability has not been changed or has been worsened. The paper deals with principal results of the study which the authors have elaborated in 2015.

The paper discusses the correlation between methodologies of conflict analysis and dynamics of international security environment and highlights the need to tailor these methodologies to the rapid sequencing of world events. The analytical approach starts with an overview on the general theory of conflict, whereupon the author focuses on the most widely used models of contemporary conflict analysis and summarizes the way they approach the same conflict, namely the recent events in Ukraine, in order to illustrate the advantages and disadvantages of each model. The final part of the paper develops, instead of conclusions, the correlation between the two analysed items and the way in which specific components of the methodologies can be adapted to the development of main characteristics of the international security environment.

The article is linked with two articles from 2013 (United Nations military observer and Preparation of Military Observers of ACR before Dispatch for Operation) and describes command structure of military observer in MINUSCA operation in Central African Republic. The article also deals with description of basic duties of the military observer team sites as well as some specifics of their live within the operation. The goal of the article is to provide information concerning structure and responsibilities of military observers in this operation. The paper is determined for future military observers, military observers deployed in MINUSCA operation as well as training purposes.

The paper focuses on issues related to possibilities of use of mine delivery systems within the Czech Armed Forces. Its content is aimed on technical and tactical capabilities of the mine launcher MV-3 during the placement of anti-tank minefields according to the desired effect on the enemy. On the basis of indicative calculations this paper presents limited possibilities and abilities of the Czech Armed Forces Corps of Engineers within the area of remotely placement mine fields and the use of the mine launcher MV-3, which is currently the only special established means for fulfilling this task. This fact has a significant impact on tactical deployment of countermobility engineer units during carrying out their missions.

The article deals with the issue of creation and realization of space policy. Space programs of individual states are closely connected to decision-making processes of the (general) state (public) policy. Therefore we can raise a question which factors influence these processes and the formulation of space policy and also if they are so unique that could be related only to one particular state. The aim of this article is to focus on one of the factors influencing space policy-strategic culture. Its influence is analysed through case studies of seven nations. Each case study is divided into two parts. First, we identify relevant characteristics of the state's strategic culture. Then, we analyse whether and how the identified characteristics of the respective strategic culture influence the space policy of a state in question. This article seeks to contribute to the growing debate about space as "the next" strategic area and highlights rather overlooked reasons of space exploration.