Vojenské Rozhledy

Czech Military Review

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Results 721 to 750 of 7442:

Arab Word and its Security Connections

Book review

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2012, Vol. XXI. (LIII.): 175-179

This article deals with selected security aspects of Israeli maritime border lines. It briefly depicts current organizational structure of the Israeli Navy. It gives an overview of equipment used to safeguard Israeli sovereignty from seaborne threats, including search and secure operations performed against anti-Israeli insurgent organizations and their trafficking lines. In connection to the Gaza Strip blockade, the article examines legitimacy of this controversial approach and its current international consequences. Last but not least, the article looks beyond the security extent of maritime borders and examines Israeli approach as a mean of spreading the national sovereignty over newly explored gas reserves in the eastern Mediterranean area.

Management of Sources at a Level of Army Unit: Commander's Position

Military professional

Doc. dr. Luboš Štancl, CSc., pplk. Ing. Karel Vávra

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 120-137

Topical problems of insufficient military budget, limited means are a drive force for searching unoccupied financial means to saturate set goals and ensure their unbiased reallocation and rational exploitation. The necessary prerequisite is control implementation and managerial accounting. This ought to create primary predispositions for introducing managerial accounting system, which would be oriented not towards financial, and property operations, but towards effective economy. The article describes phenomena tied with an army unit, together with the position of its commander in the process of gradual implementation of integrated informational system of state treasury, which is most manifested in the field of planning, budgeting and accounting.

The Analysis of Main Problems of New War Veterans (ret.) with the Accent on their Admittance to Labour Market

Informational pages

PhDr. Viktor Meca, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 114-129

The purpose of this analysis is to trace contemporary position of recent war veterans, members of missions abroad after 1989 after they retired. Above it concentrates on their problem on home labour market, eventually on psychic disorders, negative after-effects or syndromes, possible assistance and support on the part of state, eventually of Czech Ministry of Defence. The article is divided into two parts. The first one analyses accessible statistical data concerning participants in foreign missions and at the same time collected data serve for drafting hypothesis tied with a research segment of this paper. The second part of this study evaluates results reached, based upon anonymous questionnaires completed by retired new war veterans in the period from December 4, 2009, till January 25, 2010

Obama's First Year in the White House

Reviewed

PhDr. Antonín Rašek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 3-23

President Barack Obama came to power at a difficult time in America's history. Home and foreign policies are hard to manage, among others, as we are on the threshold of post-ethnic society, and in the war with terrorisms. Obama does not give up American leadership, but he is seeking to find the balance between security and liberty, between power and freedom in the world, broadly speaking. As the consequence, Mr. Rašek presumes emerging the new global security situation: the rise of multipolar world, divided into several new political spheres. This author's opinion is backed by comments by reputable world's political analysts. As far as Euro-Atlantic relations are concerned, or relations with Russia, there are excellent prospects, namely there is the progress with Russia on arms control-part of Obama's determination to put the world on a path toward nuclear disarmament. The author ascribes the drop in Obama's popularity to failed healthcare reform; outside the US, to the fact that Obama is not able to define clear goals and missions in Afghanistan.

Czech Professional Army: Initial Five Years

Book review

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2012, Vol. XXI. (LIII.): 129-135

This year, the Hlávka Economy Institute published a book "Professional Army in the Czech Republic: First Five Years", by Bohuslav Pernica. It is a study dealing with first five years in which the Czech Republic transformed its forces from a conscription army to all-volunteer one. The author sees the necessity to go professional in context of changed global surrounding after the end of Cold War. The subject is treated mainly from economy point of view. He pays attention to three important issues related to this transformation: recruitment /retention, training /education, and substandard soldier's pay, which is one of roots of low service competitiveness on civil labour market.

Simulation Potentials in Logistics Training and Schooling

Military professional

Prof. Ing. Petr Hajna, CSc., Ing. Zdeněk Březovský, por. Ing. Petra Kvapilová

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2012, Vol. XXI. (LIII.): 148-154 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.21.2012.01.148-154

With regard to changing external and internal surroundings of MoD and the creation and transfer of IT knowledge, it is necessary in practice to implementimprovements in logistics database and functionality of the so-called Logistics Information System MoD, during the whole cycle of managing, i.e. in the in the areas of sequential management and continuous management functions, depicted in this article. The paper presents results gained from a survey about the knowledge of logistics study models, academic and science projects, in Logistics Department of University of Defence Brno. The purpose of the paper is to compare student's knowledge and ability to adapt new approaches and developments in IT technology, including their capability to contribute in science research projects.

Using the Sociomapping Method in Defence Department

Informational pages

Ing. Michal Hrbata

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2012, Vol. XXI. (LIII.): 90-93

The aim of this work is to explain readers the so-called sociomapping method that is among others used in Czech peacekeeping units employed abroad, e.g. in Kosovo, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Iraq or Afghanistan. Sociomapping came into being in 1994, when a young scientist Radovan Bahbouh came up with the idea of this special analytical-graphical method. The method reflects the description of human activities and ways in which we could (in the positive sense) affect human lives. With Sociomapping, we can even predict the most suitable staffing of the crew. Sociomapping is shown as proper instrument, which helps to determine the problem and most important areas to focus on.

Leader of the Free Word and the Balance of Threats: Understanding Obama's New Defence Strategy

Informational pages

Mgr. et Mgr. Jan Ludvík

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2012, Vol. XXI. (LIII.): 77-85 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.21.2012.02.077-085

This strategy has received substantial attention and triggered the discussion about the future of U.S. security policy and America's role in the world. The article argues that American strategy is often misunderstood, particularly in the Czech environment. Obama's defence strategy and its foundations must be explained through the lenses of the balance of threats developed by Stephen Walt. Washington is balancing what it perceives to be the greatest threat to American leadership in the world. Threats are presented by emerging power of People's China, the situation in Middle East. Europe is not less important; it is still an important American ally.

Starting Points for the Preparation of Updated Security Strategy of the Czech Republic 2011

Reviewed

PhDr. Miloš Balabán, Ph.D., PhDr. Antonín Rašek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 3-19

In our country, existing strategical documents related to security used to be compiled very carefully, but proved to be not very effective, as they did not fit to practical everyday security policy, they did not comply with day-to-day requirements. The only exception was the 1991 doctrine dealing with the creation of Integrated Rescue System and the implementation of professional armed forces. At present, there is a tendency to rewrite those strategy documents again, namely in the field of security. The preparation of a new version of Czech security strategy is taking place in time marked with new trends in world politics and economy. The main attention is attracted by crisis management, arms control, disarmament, WMD non-proliferation, cooperation with non-NATO nations, and international organizations, last but not least counterterrorism and cyberspace security strategy. In short the study mentions Czech political-military ambitions, defence strategy, defence capacity and resources, it appreciates in value knowledge gained by the Centre of Security Policy, Faculty of Social Science, Charles University Prague, and it contains conclusions and recommendations for the preparation the 2011 Czech National Security Strategy.

Operational Analysis: Key Capability Supporting Decision-making

Military art

Ing. Pavel Zůna, MSS, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2012, Vol. XXI. (LIII.): 35-44

The defence environment is complex and dynamic. This is a result of the nature of modern conflict, rapid changes in technology, the need to deal with uncertainty in the face of limited sources, changed attitudes to risk and the sheer diversity of actors from different cultural backgrounds. Defence-decision makers are confronted with an increasing operational complexity that has strategic implications. Decisions on defence policy and strategy are characterized by uncertainty and risks. This Article describes differences in Hard and Soft Operational Analyses, and presents some examples and conclusions for military practice.

A Brief Insight into the History of Operational Art and its Contemporary Aspects (Part II)

Military art

Ing. Ján Spišák

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2012, Vol. XXI. (LIII.): 48-54 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.21.2012.03.048-054

Operational art is the use of creative thinking by commanders and staffs to design strategies, campaigns, and major operations and organize and employ military forces. This article is a sequel to the study published in a previous issue of this Military Revue. The author discusses the fundamental pillars of operational art, upon which Alliance countries build their doctrinal and defence documents concerning operational art. A separate section deals with conditions and status of operational art in the Army of the Czech Republic in the last 20 years. The author calls for the need to introduce operational art in several key areas of Czech doctrines. He recalls the necessity to implement those issues in the prepared Doctrine of the ACR.

Jaroslav Janda: The 80th Anniversary of His Birth

Personal data

Antonín Rašek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2012, Vol. XXI. (LIII.): 180-186

After several years of service with armour corps he devoted himself to social organizations in the forces, among others he was a head of department for military youth. In 1968 he became a deputy Czech minister for youth, PT and sports. During period of normalization he was released from the army. He made his living as a free lance translator and author. After the Velvet Revolution in 1989 he became advisor to deputy defence minister for humanitarian affairs, later he became assistant to deputy defence minister for strategical control, deputy director of Institute for Strategic Studies, deputy director of Institute of International Relations. After his untimely death, the prize named after him for works in the field of defence was established.

Forming Security Culture of the European Union (European Security Strategy)

Reviewed - Research

Doc. PhDr. Jan Eichler, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 22-36

The Document ESS 2003 laid down foundations of our present-day security and strategy culture. It was formed as a summary of several historical and political factors that are introduced in two starting chapters, followed by the more detailed analysis into ESS 2003, its main characteristics influencing EU security and strategic culture. The ESS 2003 is compared with the American doctrinal document NSS 2002. The European security strategy of 2003 is not compared with following American strategical documents, as they were unknown in time of its drafting. The author comes into the conclusion that in spite of indisputable differences, the EU shares the same values as the US, and the EU as an American strategical ally is facing the same threats and challenges as the US does, and in case of need, there is a possibility of combined military actions.

Intelligence Services (A Multidisciplinary Approach to Problem)

Book review

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2012, Vol. XXI. (LIII.): 136-138

In our country we can meet various publications on intelligence activities, nevertheless we feel the lack of expert books with wider overreach. Among those publications that fulfil such demands belongs the work by Ladislav Pokorný "Secret Agencies", Prague: Auditorium, 2012. The book covers intelligence organizations of all kinds, including military ones. In military section the reviewer cites the famous ironic sentence "Under the Czech Law, we have three intelligence services, in fact there are four of them, with five directors". The publication is of high information value and could also serve as a university textbook.

Accoutrements Support of Selected Uniformed Units of the CR

Military professional

Kpt. Ing. Michal Zelenák, doc. Ing. Miroslav Pecina, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2012, Vol. XXI. (LIII.): 137-142 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.21.2012.02.137-142

The article focuses on comparing the current legal requirements of the provision of authorized accoutrements uniformed forces and identifies their differences. The article proposes the change in payment of compensation for unused authorized accoutrements. It is not only a matter of Army of the Czech Republic and other uniformed forces of the Czech Republic, e.g. Police of the Czech Republic or Prison Service of the Czech Republic. Uniformed forces ought to receive adequate material support, as they have to distinguish themselves from civilians with the regard to the nature and specifics of their duties.

Public Sector Economy in Management Practice

Military professional

Ing. Svatopluk Kunc

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2012, Vol. XXI. (LIII.): 155-161

There is an ambiguous relation as far as management and economy in public sector are concerned. Using the example of British army, the author explains the roots and consequences of changes in the field of source management and compares collected results with the situation in the CR. Both public sector and the Army of the Czech Republic (ACR) are administratively ordered and controlled and meeting the army goals that are not conditioned by economy results. The accounting books do not offer true picture of army possession and properties, among others because the current accountancy system that is not able to classify individual operations, military goals are not measurable. He proposes to set an array of fixed rules to identify ACR economical effectivity.

Major General in memoriam Bohumil Borecký. During World War I he was taken prisoner in Russia, where he joined the Czech reserve company in Kiev.

Personal data

PhDr. Zdeněk Vališ

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 103-108

As a former Austrian officer he was chosen for recruiting volunteers for the so-called Czech and Slovak Army in Russia. After the WWI he became a member of the newly created Czechoslovak Army. During Nazi occupation of Czech lands, he was arrested for his resistance activities. Fortunately, in prison he suffered from typhoid fever, so he was taken into hospital and therefore he was not executed. When WW II ended, he was falsely accused of leaking important information by military counter-intelligence which was firmly in hands of oncoming communists. After interrogations he was senteced for "active fight against the Bolsheviks" in Russian civil war. The Soviet security authorities deported him together with other condemned persons to Austrinan city Baden and then to the U.S.S.R. At the age of 60 he was sentenced to 25 years of imprisonment. In 1954 he died. After the Velver Revolution he was rehablitaded and promoted to the rank of Major General.

Expeditionary Capabilities and Food Acquisition

Military professional

Ing. Pavlína Vasická, prof. Ing. Aleš Komár, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 147-154

The ACR is going to take part in expeditionary operations abroad, so we must be prepared to supply and sustain such forces. Problems with the provision of the bakery products in the military operation and mission include diet; economical, technological, safety; and psychosocial aspects. The ground forces are to be effective. Now we are developing premixes that meet the conditions of nutritional content of bakery products and the indigenous products with the protective function. The new utilized technology is based on preparing dough with improvers. Cost analysis of producing bread and pastry in operation was carried out with a surprising outcome: the costs of our own production are approximately 4-6 times lower than the costs of products from the local or other producers or participating armies (which is contrary to present-day official policy buying from outside suppliers).

Administrative Culture and the Economization of Activities in Defence Sector

Nonreviewed - Other

Prof. PhDr. Miroslav Krč CSc., brig. gen. prof. Ing. Rudolf Urban, CSc., dr.h.c.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 21-35

The administrative culture is something like "mind set" of "software" of organization, its philosophy, a part of which is the so-called economization. The process of economization of defence sphere will lead to further decrease in numbers, cutting down redundant materiel, supplies. Such economy measures should produce savings in terms of hundred millions Czech crowns, side by side with the increased potential of the whole military organization. The authors introduce Activities in Defence Sector the CAF model (Common Assessment Framework), based upon the Model Excellence of the European Foundation for Quality Management, expressed by the following formula: factors involved equals personnel times activities (education) times facilities (investments). There are some similarities between army management and business administration, so the economy instructions ought to be part of overall military education and training.

Alternative Service: Not quite the Past

Book review

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 138-140

In his review of the "Phenomenon of Alternative Service: Do not Kill for a State, Nevertheless Serve the Nation" by Bohuslav Pernica, dr. Antonín Rašek evaluates positively the choice of discussed theme, which is not only historical, but it has an importance for the future, as performing social and other activities with the use of a citizen compulsory service is still necessary. Some people consider introducing this sort of general service, together with the so-called volunteerism, as it is in our neighbour-Austria. The book is concentrated on the theme of alternative service mostly from economic point of view, social problems are only hinting and the influence of alternative service on the performance of compulsory military service in the former Czechoslovakia and in the Czech Republic is overlooked. It was in the early 90's when conscripted soldiers were thinking up various reasons why to evade military service, which seriously violated the performance of military service.

Geographic Support to the 1st ACR Contingent, ISAF PRT Logar

Informational pages

Mjr. Ing. Jan Marša, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 108-112

The necessary predisposition of successful meeting assigned tasks of every military contingent sent abroad lies in a high cooperation of its elements, hidden performance of all mission members. The purpose of this article is to introduce nearly invisible activities of geographic and hydro meteorological specialists of the ACR, who prepared and printed geographical maps of Logar province. It is the very first set of maps created by the method of rapid symbolization of GIS data (Geographic Information System), based upon standard Topographic Map TLM50. Vocational preparedness of military geographers is high. Technological means, advanced technology they use in Logar, are an indispensable prerequisite for successful fulfilment of their mission with honours. In fact, the Czech contingent consists of nearly 200 members, formed by soldiers of 102nd reconnaissance battalion Prostějov, 7th mech brigade Hranice, 13th arty brigade Jince, 15th rescue engineers brigade Bechyně, 103rd Centre CIMIC/PSYOPS Lipník, 22nd Air Base Náměšť and other members of Czech armed forces.

Moznosti modernizace vojenske logistiky madarske armady

brig. gen. prof. Ing. Rudolf Urban, CSc., doc. Dr. Lázsló Szücs

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2004, Vol. XIII. (XLV.): 115-123

The Association of Officers and Warrant Officers of the ACR has been oriented on the Youth since 2004

Informational pages

genmjr.v.v. Ing. Stanislav Chromec, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 139-141

The Association of Officers and Warrant Officers is a voluntary civic society directed and planned by the Central Council. It is the professional association of officers, former officers, and spouses, civilian employees and friends. Its activities cover a broad range of special-interest clubs. It cooperates with similarly oriented associations in NATO countries. The association has a long history of effective professional activities. The author enumerates performances done this year, namely the Paintball Czech Army Cup 2009 or demonstrations of combat engagement of a multinational squad to destroy the attack of terrorist groups. They produced multimedia compact disc "Pictures from Czech History 1914-2004" and organized the conference "The Youth in Present-time Czech History: Risks and Hopes" and are preparing another audio-visual teaching aid "Czech Society in Modern Europe: Destiny, Ties, Retreats and Approaches", made for all elementary and secondary schools.

Col. RNDr. Anton Droppa, CSc. (ret.)-Veteran World War II, Airman, Geographer and Speleologist

Personal data

Plk. v.v. Petr Majer

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 170-171

He was born on June 30, 1920, in Slovakia, at a small village. After his graduation from secondary school, he had to enter the army, to fulfil his compulsory military service. He joined an air regiment, after two-year military academy was passed out as Air Force lieutenant. When the Slovak National Uprising began in 1944, against German control, the rebel Air Force flew to the former Soviet Union. His regiment was equipped by Russian airplanes La-5FN. He took part in several air fights, and finally was shot down. His comrades-in-arms died. When war ended, he became an air instructor at the military flying school at Olomouc. After the Communist coup d'etat, he was dismissed, without quoted any reason. He was looking for a job. It was very difficult for all dismissed officers to find any. He became a day labourer, nevertheless he didn't stop studying at the University Brno, where he graduated in 1951 as a doctor of natural sciences. He explored caves of the Moravian Karst, worked at the museum. In 1991 he was rehabilitated and promoted to the rank of Colonel.

Operational Art: A different view

Opinions, controversy

Ing. Ján Spišák, doc. Ing. Milan Kubeša, CSc., Ing. Pavel Zůna, MSS

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 93-96

The article polemize against the content of the article "Operational Art" that was published in the previous issue of this Czech Military Review, 3/2011. The polemics points out that the author of the criticized article applied doctrinally incorrect terminology, he did not respect the valid standards of the military terminology and is cross-indexing to the old Allied standards. Such articles should present new lessons from field theory and practice, which would contribute to the professional preparedness of the military personnel, and to the required interoperability with our coalition partners. But according to the authors, criticized article is rather misleading. Key words: operational art, operations, operational concept, center of gravity.

Jan Eichler: Terrorism and Wars in Era of Globalisation. (Is it possible to prevent wars?)

Book review

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 172-174

The author Jan Eichler works at the Institution of International Relations Prague, so those are the themes he is professionally involved in. His publication deals with security threats and their assessments at the beginning of 21st century. This second edition of his book is amended by several wars taking place since the first edition was released. They were wars between Russia and Georgia 2008-2009, Israel vs. the Palestinians 2008-2009, several conflicts in Africa, Columbia, and Sri Lanka; ISAF operations in Afghanistan; in Iraq the new attitude of the USA towards conflict solution. Somalia represents a typical failed state with warlords, criminal gangs, Somalia and sea piracy is a mutually tied problem the word community was not able to solve. Last but not least, there are dangerous activities of Islamists in North Africa. Even though those mentioned conflicts are only regional, their consequences are global. They therefore need the involvement of international organizations, the EU and the UN respectively.

Lieutenant Stanislav Drong (ret.), War Veteran, First Czechoslovak Army Corps in the USSR

Personal data

Plk. v.v. Petr Majer

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 144-146

He was born in 1919 at problem region Silesia. He was very sorry to be placed on the so-called Volksliste File No 3, together with his parents, but he was warned by his friends not to oppose to local authorities decision, otherwise the could be send to a concentration camp. Shortly after that he was enlisted into German army and sent for Russian front. He deserted immediately. He joined the First Czechoslovak Army Corps at a position of radio operator. He took part even in the fights at the Dukla battlefield, he suffered injuries and was transferred into military hospital where he stayed for four months. After war he worked at Třinec Iron Works till his retiring age. He was awarded several medals for bravery and received the Certification of War Veteran.

The Security System of the CR and the Necessity of its Adaptation to Cumulative Effects of Threats

Reviewed - Review

PhDr. Libor Stejskal

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 37-47

The term of "growing complex of threats" covers higher and higher probability of concatenation of various intercommoned, mutually tied factors reflecting structured technological and informational reality of global society, making their solving by traditional means of security system extremely difficult. "Crisis situation" represents more general problem of natural disasters or technology breakdowns that are influencing one another, that cause great distress or destruction, in an unexpected manner, activating subsequent threats of so far unforeseen threats. For that reason we must adapt Czech security system to new liquid, instant and indivisible complex threats.

Geopolitics: A New Optics

Book review

PhDr. Antonín Rašek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 190-194

In his new book, Geopolitics, its author Štefan Volner examines geopolitical theories as if through the prism of new images. It is in fact a free sequel to his previous books on political science. He puts geopolitics somewhere in between natural and social sciences, which is rather ambivalent attitude, namely in cases of using terms thermodynamics, chaos theory and so on. He mentions names such as Huntington, Brzezinski, Friedman, but surprisingly he pays his attention also to less known - at least in our country - Aleksandr Dugin, as a representative of 'new Eurasianism', a new ideology of present-day Russian 'national patriots'. In the second part of his book, Štefan Volner lays down theoretical and methodical foundations for forming geopolitics as scholarly discipline; the third part of this book is concentrated on the EU.

Predictive Methodology in Intelligence Services

Reviewed

Bc. Petr Zelinka

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 29-39

This article aims at building a bridge upon a gap, which separates academic sphere and intelligence community in the issue of predictive methodology. The author tries to accomplish this objective by presenting intelligence predictive methods based on open-source literature research. First, the question of uncertainty and probability in prediction is introduced (Cynefin template). Then follows basic introduction to predictive methods in civil and military intelligences, so that the reader might grasp the fundamentals of early warning systems. The academics and above all journalists should know the risks and perils in forming intelligence forecasts, estimates, foresight and warning scenarios, e.g. the so-called Black Swan scenario, the author explains potentials failures of the Delphi method. This study ought to be regarded as an introductory to predictive intelligence concurrently done by governmental agencies for purposes of national security and defence.

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