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This article describes the basic terms used in prognostics (future studies, forecasting the future, prognosis, prediction, expert) and introduces selected prognostic methods and techniques which could be applied in security area (brainstorming, focus group, trend extrapolation, Delphi method, scenarios etc.). The basic classifications and prognosis typologies are mentioned as well. Particular phases of prognosis making are described too. For the Czech security community the prognosis making has an important potential whose outcomes (of particular surveys) should be manifest in following years. This text has only tried to outline selected methods and techniques for their potential application.

The NATO common funding has already been used to finance common needs of the Alliance for 65 years and has contributed substantially to its readiness, cohesion and solidarity. A number of reform measures have been approved, and in most cases already implemented, over the period of last several years with the aim of more effective, economical, efficient a transparent use of NATO common funds and the introduction of modern financial management practices. NATO common funding is therefore a live and well-functioning system. Nevertheless, there is still a room for further improvements. The aim of this article is to describe the role of NATO common funding, its basic parameters and tools, its development in the past, and current and future challenges.

The problem of forming military decisions lies in the very core of this article. Among others, there are a lot of highly unpredictable impact factors; there are many assessment criteria for individual variants of solving problems. Criteria of qualitative characters, and various interpretations of data information demand quality decisions; they are sometimes difficult to understand and even contradictory. The commanders and their staffs must be well educated, trained and experienced. To meet this precondition we must ensure quality of career training, supported by practical experiences. The staff work must be practiced regularly, with the use of various scenarios, supplemented by historical studies of past or recent fi ghts and battles.

The EU Monitoring Mission (EUMM) is the only international monitoring presence operating in the region with the consent of the Russian Federation. However, almost 11 years in the area did not bring the desired result. The Russian Federation has strengthened its position in Abkhazia and South Ossetia with more than 20,000 troops on the ground, hardened the border and even prevented the schools from teaching children in Georgian. Following the assessment on the basis of three criteria (stabilization, normalization and confidence building), the EUMM attempts to increase the confidence building, to mediate among the actors in order to achieve a normal and a stable environment. But on the other hand, EUMM enables also the Russian federation to officialise its presence and its troops in the breakaway regions.

Although private military companies like the former Blackwater were regarded as a relatively new phenomenon in international security, their history is not new. The participation of private individuals, and /or groups of private individuals, soldiers of fortune, in "foreign" armed conflicts is at least as old as the history of wars by itself. It is impossible to open a debate about the scope and possible impact of the current use of private military and security companies without knowing and evaluating their long-term historical developments. The goal of this study is therefore to map the history of the use of private military forces, their involvement in various conflicts, services they offer, among others, from the point of international law.

Dear readers,
We would like to present to you the contributions from the "Prameny k dějinám našeho vojska" (Sources of History of Our Army) column, published in our journal in No. 3/1920. In this column, the journal's editorial staff regularly concentrated their contributions for prospective research. This and other historical papers can be viewed, read or downloaded from the website of our journal www.vojenskerozhledy.cz in the Archive menu.

The Armed Forces of BiH were officially unified in 2005 and are composed of two founding armies: the Bosniak-Croat Army of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Bosnian Serb Army of Republika Srpska. Even though the unified armed forces celebrated their 13^th anniversary in December 2018 and are presented as a success story, the political environment in Bosnia and Herzegovina, particularly in Republika Srpska, does not foster a sense of unity in the armed forces. The paper explores the vulnerabilities that the unified armed forces face, particularly in relation to the process of state building in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The text concludes, that the main concerns for the BiH armed forces include the old equipment, the economic problems of the country and budget constraints, politicisation and ethnicisation - while ongoing nationalism and the unsure future of BiH remain the greatest external challenges.

The article provides partial results of the research Strategic Analysis Methods applicable within the Defence Department of the Czech Republic. This research addresses a low level of use of strategic analysis methods in the development of strategic and conceptual documents of the department. In the years 2017 and 2018, interviews with the processors of these documents were carried out and the problems related to the use of strategic analysis methods in sector planning were analysed. In particular, the article analyses the content and utilization process of stakeholder analysis method, SWOT analysis, future scenarios, benchmarking and GAP analysis.

Since the 1st release of an internal ministerial norm guiding planning processes of activities and development within the Czech Ministry of Defence (MOD) presuming existence of Capability Planning Methodology, this document has not been established. This article offers selected theoretical starting points and, on their basis, it outlines possible a ministerial process tree focused on the capability process as a ground for its definition within Czech MOD conditions. Further in a framework of an added value model proposes possible internal structure of above mentioned process down to sub-processes level with justification of their purpose and mutual links. Formulating mentioned attributes of the capability planning process this article makes a contribution to set up this process within the Czech MOD.

This paper deals with the phenomenon of Jihadist foreign terrorist fighters from the perspective of East Central European countries. Over the past decade, the term 'foreign terrorist fighter' has become established in scholarly literature, international law and the popular consciousness. Today, Jihadist foreign terrorist fighters are closely watched globally for the security threat they pose. Although the greatest danger in Europe is seen to be to nations in the west, several cases in East Central Europe - involving terrorists travelling through the region and attempting to radicalise local jihadists - have led Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic to adopt important legislation to eliminate this threat.

The article deals with the applicability of professional soldiers in the labour market after the termination of military service. Its aim is to outline the information about the unemployment of former soldiers and to present the main results of sociological research, which was held among 313 former members of the Czech Armed Forces. Based on the processing of statistics of the Labour Office of the Czech Republic, it was found out that on average 18% of former soldiers of productive age were 8 months without employment during 2008 - 2017. With the help of a questionnaire survey, it was found out that more than a fifth of the respondents were looking for an employment in the civilian sector for more than half a year. The majority of respondents do not perceive the system of preparation for a second career of soldiers as elaborate. They state that the issue of second career was not addressed during their military service. There are possible recommendations for improving the current state of integration of soldiers into the labour market at the end of the article.

The European Union is interested in ensuring the security of African countries in the region of Sahel because some of the threats originating from this region can potentially endanger its member states. With the deteriorating situation in northern Mali, the EU has decided to become more active in this country through Common Security and Defence Policy missions. The aim of this article is to introduce and subsequently assess the contemporary policy of EU in Mali. Particular attention will be paid to the European Union Training Mission in Mali and European Union Capacity Building Mission in Mali, which have so far produced rather mixed results. The article will also focus on the EU strategy in the Sahel region and partly on the EU counterterrorist and counterinsurgency activities in Mali.

The article deals with the Information Support of Human Resources Management of the Ministry of Defense in terms of providing information on the quantity and quality of the personnel of the department for decision making processes. The first part describes the tools and methods of analysis for processing this information. The second part provides practical examples of this information support. On the basis of analytical studies the status of staff is presented in 2015 and 2016, supplemented by comments from the author, indicating possible ways of presenting and using this information in Human Resource Management. The author of the article, which presents the results of the long-standing experience of the creator of the information management support system, concludes that the data generated by this system could lead the adoption of a number of fundamental strategic decisions.

The article deals with the possibility of using artillery fire with the multiple round simultaneous impact, for artillery weapon systems currently used in the Army of the Czech Republic. It aims to analyze the existing artillery procedures and then describe the possibilities, benefits and possible negatives of multiple rounds simultaneus impact fires. In the end, specific requirements are set that must be met for the effective use of fire with the simultaneous impact of missiles with currently used artillery weapon systems.

The article studies possibilities of utilization of Global Navigational Satellite Systems Galileo and BeiDou in the Armed forces of the Czech Republic. It analyses its advantages, weaknesses and assets the army. The study is grounded in knowledge and experience of the Czech military geographic service and supports it with comparisons with already implemented systems GPS and GLONASS. European project Galileo brings for the most part independence on GPS and direct influence of the Czech Republic. Chinese system BeiDou provides individual alternative, although with limited access. In combination with multiconstelation receivers, they can substantially complement the current structure, make more accurate measurements and lower vulnerability to jamming and spoofing/deception. AČR may utilise benefits of the systems with modernisation of devices a by participation in development projects of global navigation.

The aim of the article is to present a synthesis of findings from both analyses and their application while conceiving a proposal of methodology for military capability assessment of Armed Forces of the Czech Republic. The proposed approach to capability assessment stems from principles of the NATO´s J-DARTS (Joint Defence Planning Analysis and Requirements Tool Set) and EU´s SAEP (Scrutinising, Assessing, Evaluating and Prioritising Process) when the main attention was focused on the phase of matching current capabilities of force units against capability requirements, follow-on identification of shortfalls and their prioritisation. The degree of priority should primarily qualify the level of operational risk stemming from potential engagement of force units in an operation.

The article addresses the current state of registration and evaluation of physical training of soldiers of the Army of the Czech Republic. It includes analytical and design part. The analytical part discusses the pros and cons of current evidence of physical training data and identifies the main shortcomings and problems. The article proposes the optimization of the current state through an advanced information system that would cover the current needs of physical education workers and for this purpose is currently created in the environment of the University of Defense in Brno. The article outlines the possible practical use of the information system in military practice.

The article offers for expert discussion research outcomes assessing commanders´ development in the area of leadership for assignments in defense organization. It also evaluates the level of utilization of gained competencies while managing these organizations. Research was conducted from 2017 to 2019 and embraced predominantly surveys among participants of career courses provided by the Centre for Security and Military Strategic Studies of Defense University in the life-long education program. Research outcomes proved limited level of understanding and implementation of leadership theoretical framework in daily business. Additionally, it shows that the implementation of verified leadership processes and principles by middle- and higher-military management fluctuates about the average level. Furthermore, it figured out an insufficient application of all available instruments for people motivation and support including the approach "leading by example". Finally, it outlined several recommendations for the reinforcement of military personal preparation in the area of leadership for the successful conduct of middle- and higher-managerial position in military organizations. The first and at the same time the most significant step is the recommendation for implementing leadership areas into the Ministry of Defense conceptual documents in the form of vision, strategy and systemic measures.

Dear readers,
We are pleased to share with you the paper published in our journal in No. 3/1920. The paper written by Lieutenant Rudolf Lounský is called "President o armádě" (President on the Army). In his paper, the author introduces President Tomáš Garrigue Masaryk's ideas of a democratic army.
This and other historical papers can be viewed, read or downloaded from the website of our journal www.vojenskerozhledy.cz in the Archive menu.

The paper deals with the professional development of cyber security corps. In the introduction the individual elements that are active in cyber security are described. Strategic analysis of the education is carried out to define the initial state. The main part of the paper is devoted to the design of the education system. The individual elements are defined in the paper, and the model of relationships between these elements is shaped. The attachment contains complete set of topics and their classification into the strands to fulfil the profile of the cyber security expert.

The article is focused on assessment of the model of competency to lead others for graduates of the Faculty of Military Leadership of the University of Defence. This competency to handle the initial demands of a command post, to which graduates of the Faculty of Military Leadership may be enrolled immediately after their studies. The main aim of the research was to define, structure and evaluate the model of competency to lead others for the graduates of the Faculty of Military Leadership based on the experiences of the commanders which serves in the Army of the Czech Republic. Questionnaire survey of own construction for two groups of respondents (young commanders and their closest superiors) was used to obtain the data. Those data were evaluated by parametric and nonparametric statistical analysis. The results of the analysis showed that abilities defined in the model of competency are used in daily military life by addressed commanders.

The article deals with particularly topical problem, the riots with ethnic background. The present situation is compared with history illustrations and with similar recent events abroad. Author's reflections and scenarios outline a variant of state failure and its institutions, with the exception of army. He identifies respective incoming risks, among others tied with the so-called Roma question. Actually, his hypothetical solutions are not backed by the current laws of the Czech Republic. The author comes to the conclusion that army deployment might be used only as an instrument of last resort, "ultima ratio".

The article is related to the building process of Capabilities Development Concept of Military Police (MP) in Ministry of Defence environment. With regards to the specific status of MP within Ministry of defence and with regards to diversity of assigned tasks Capabilities Development Concept of MP is finally hybrid document, containing elements of concept, strategy and long-term development intent. This is positive fact based on unique status of this branch of arms. The author who is actively influencing the proces of concept building is describing his recommendations and observations which might be convenient also for those readers who are not Military Police workers.