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This article describes the basic terms used in prognostics (future studies, forecasting the future, prognosis, prediction, expert) and introduces selected prognostic methods and techniques which could be applied in security area (brainstorming, focus group, trend extrapolation, Delphi method, scenarios etc.). The basic classifications and prognosis typologies are mentioned as well. Particular phases of prognosis making are described too. For the Czech security community the prognosis making has an important potential whose outcomes (of particular surveys) should be manifest in following years. This text has only tried to outline selected methods and techniques for their potential application.

In conclusion of article in Military Review No 3, 2011, the authors gave notice about a sequel to this article. Today they describe military deception form another point of vies. They depict the creation of false picture, deception in the frame of operational planning. The authors accentuate that not only Asian countries, but also western ones look back to classical works on military art, e.g. Sun Tzu, The Art of War (around 2,000 years ago). Sun Tzu's philosophy recommended a strategic method to win that rarely required actual war. Spies, diplomats, deception, and a correctly organised internal structure were his main tools. If it came to war, he recommended among others to use detailed and elaborated military deception.

The article sums up the evolution of the Czech officers' qualification structure since the start of downsizing in 1990 and provides an outlook beyond 2010. At the early 90's graduate education used to be only for officers. A total of 65 % were holding university degrees. Today this number reaches 98 %, with 3 % holding Ph.D. or CSc. degrees. There is also an increase in numbers of WOs with graduate education, it is 4 %, despite the fact that such qualification is not necessary for them. Authors discuss this evolution and compare it with the ageing of the Czech population and overall academic education system. The gradual decrease of people aged 20-24 till 2020 is an important challenge to reforming recruitment and education of junior officers. The reform is needed to avoid deficits in quality junior officers and consequently the lack of personnel selection for military education at the University of Defence.

The global security environment brings forward different and surprising challenges for the armed forces, which require a good training and preparation. One way of sorting out the endeavour is using scenarios, the concept used extensively in the military field, the military field being the initiator of this concept. Military scenario development is the subject of this article, which is going to bring some essential characteristics and propose a working option for elaborating a scenario. The final aim is to help military planners have a good working procedure when developing a scenario in order to create a document updated with warfare evolution and operational planning process ready to respond to all risks and threats. The scenario is a way used by military structures at all levels of military art (strategical, operational and tactical) to get in contact with a probable unknown situation, to assimilate it and to sort it out. The article focuses on the scenario development process and proposes stages and activities that should be followed by a joint operational group when tasked with preparing a scenario.

The paper discusses the correlation between methodologies of conflict analysis and dynamics of international security environment and highlights the need to tailor these methodologies to the rapid sequencing of world events. The analytical approach starts with an overview on the general theory of conflict, whereupon the author focuses on the most widely used models of contemporary conflict analysis and summarizes the way they approach the same conflict, namely the recent events in Ukraine, in order to illustrate the advantages and disadvantages of each model. The final part of the paper develops, instead of conclusions, the correlation between the two analysed items and the way in which specific components of the methodologies can be adapted to the development of main characteristics of the international security environment.

The paper focuses on issues related to possibilities of use of mine delivery systems within the Czech Armed Forces. Its content is aimed on technical and tactical capabilities of the mine launcher MV-3 during the placement of anti-tank minefields according to the desired effect on the enemy. On the basis of indicative calculations this paper presents limited possibilities and abilities of the Czech Armed Forces Corps of Engineers within the area of remotely placement mine fields and the use of the mine launcher MV-3, which is currently the only special established means for fulfilling this task. This fact has a significant impact on tactical deployment of countermobility engineer units during carrying out their missions.

Successful protection against Weapons of Mass Destruction and Toxic Industrial Materials is a permanent and current challenge for the Czech Armed Forces Chemical Corps units and formations. Technical and technological improvements of the equipment and material as a result of defence development projects mostly contributed to enhancement of operational capabilities. In some cases, however, the required capability has not been changed or has been worsened. The paper deals with principal results of the study which the authors have elaborated in 2015.

The article is linked with two articles from 2013 (United Nations military observer and Preparation of Military Observers of ACR before Dispatch for Operation) and describes command structure of military observer in MINUSCA operation in Central African Republic. The article also deals with description of basic duties of the military observer team sites as well as some specifics of their live within the operation. The goal of the article is to provide information concerning structure and responsibilities of military observers in this operation. The paper is determined for future military observers, military observers deployed in MINUSCA operation as well as training purposes.

During the Arab Spring Revolution, when the protests against the Syrian government began in 2011, Russia was one of the strongest backers of President Bashar al-Assad's regime, backing its right to use force if necessary to prevent or put down an uprising. Currently, the Russian Federation is the power which has most prominently provided a diplomaticshieldforthe Syrian state and bolstered it witharms supplies, although Moscow talks about the need to "balance" between the warring parties in Syria. The main aim of this paper is to analyze the motives of the foreign and security policy of the Russian Federation in support of Syrian President BasharAssad in the background of Russian interests and influence of norms. At the theoretical level, the paper builds upon a combination of conventional constructivism and rationalism approaches, which in relation to the motives of Russian protection and defense of the ruling regime in Syria reflects a number of fundamental knowledge.

The fire support is an inevitable prerequisite for the success of combat forces in land military operations and artillery is its key provider. Will it be even in a future complex and uncertain operating environment? The article recalls high requirements on the current ACR artillery and with the use of the Alliance partner's findings, it points to selected aspects that might influence its capabilities development towards the future operations. The article defines artillery as an indirect fire system and clarifies its role and tasks in the framework of joint fire support. It proposes measures to increase the quality of its training and management. It discusses the issue of an operational concept and its importance for the future ACR artillery, together with introducing main trends in areas of its potential development.

The article deals with the issue of creation and realization of space policy. Space programs of individual states are closely connected to decision-making processes of the (general) state (public) policy. Therefore we can raise a question which factors influence these processes and the formulation of space policy and also if they are so unique that could be related only to one particular state. The aim of this article is to focus on one of the factors influencing space policy-strategic culture. Its influence is analysed through case studies of seven nations. Each case study is divided into two parts. First, we identify relevant characteristics of the state's strategic culture. Then, we analyse whether and how the identified characteristics of the respective strategic culture influence the space policy of a state in question. This article seeks to contribute to the growing debate about space as "the next" strategic area and highlights rather overlooked reasons of space exploration.

Příspěvek se zabývá vybranými bezpečnostními aspekty námořních hraničních linií Státu Izrael. V krátkosti vymezuje současnou organizaci izraelského válečného námořnictva a jeho vybavení pro zabezpečování izraelské svrchovanosti proti hrozbám přicházejícím z moře, včetně zadržovacích operací vedoucích k zabránění šíření zbraní do rukou protiizraelských teroristických organizací. V souvislosti s izraelskou námořní blokádou pásma Gazy je komentována legitimita takového kroku a mezinárodněpolitické konsekvence jejího vynucování. Ekonomické souvislosti přetrvávajících problémů stran izraelské námořní hranice jsou evidentní na příkladu sporu o právo k využití podmořských nalezišť plynu.

The article presents the results of advanced defence research for the higher economy and security support of military cars and vehicles. The Czech national programme to cut or lower exhaust fumes belongs among our eminent and foremost tasks. Exhaust gases form 20 per cent of total volume of harmful emissions. The newly developed dopes supplemented to fuels, namely to solid fuels, polluting a lot our atmosphere, significantly contribute to the fulfilment of this national task. The article is accompanied by relevant charts and tablets.

With the running changes in methods of modern operations within NATO framework, there are also changes in demands and tasks in the scope of civil-military operations-CIMIC. They are incorporated in many documents, such as the Comprehensive Political Guidance, New Concept of Civil-Military Cooperation or Field Manual 3-07 Stability Operations. The CIMIC capacities ought to be used for active impact on impending security situation, crisis development, impact implemented more sooner then crises might escalate to conflicts, eventually they could be used to halt the conflicts, in the places where they are a threat to Alliance security. We must create new rules of co-operations between civil and military sections, with the use of Alliance materials, resources and documents from conferences, seminars and field working shops. Today we have also abundant experiences that the Army of the Czech Republic, its CIMIC section, have acquired in preceding ten years.

The article deals with persistent problems of Czech military policy within 1993-2009, its achievements and failures. A new managerial concept, system planning, programming and budgeting, which superseded a communist central control, was not implemented fully because of governance instability. The office of Defence Minister was held by 11 persons within 1993-2009 (Czech Republic). Among others, it aroused the return of a concept of central planning in 2004, which was not successful, because it was not supported by institutions outside the MoD. The authors propose more transparency in military matters and better cooperation with academic community to prevent the repetition of concepts supporting short-term goals instead of long-term visions.

Research into the use of structured analytical techniques has shown that analysts use specific structured techniques to achieve better analysis results than using traditional intuitive approaches. The experiment was based on solving the analytical tasks of two intelligence scenarios in a set of 32 people. To verify the null hypothesis, a chi-square test of independence was performed at a 5% significance level. In the control/intuitive and experimental/structured technique groups, responses were evaluated in four criteria, in an overall qualitative intelligence analysis, in rank corps, depending on the time of service and education. The number of correct answers was the highest in the experimental group when dealing with the intelligence analysis criteria for both scenarios. Improved analysis of the experimental group in the second scenario solution was statistically significant. The null hypothesis, using structured methodology improves qualitative intelligence analysis, is not rejected. In the experiment, other test criteria are below than the critical value. The results of the research have shown that the success of the problem solution is influenced by the correct use of the Hypothesis Testing technique. The use of structured techniques depends on the level of knowledge and the type of intelligence problem. At the same time, the conduct of research has shown the influence of analysts' cognitive biases.

The main topic and focus of this article is to identify the most relevant indicators of the rise of religious extremism as an important cause of armed conflicts. A religiously motivated conflict is a relevant topic in modern security studies and research. Conflict prevention using the early-warning indicators identified in this article might be interesting for the security expert community. In the article chosen methodology is available with the recommendation to following research in the examined field.

The article deals with approaches and tasks of education in the field of security and state defence of the Czech Republic. It is based on the legal framework and informs the professional public about the initiative and process of the Ministry of Defence of the Czech Republic and Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic in particular area. Preparation of citizens for state defence conception, which was approved by the resolution of the Government of the Czech Republic on the 1^st April 2019, reacts to results within the implementation of this Conception adopted in 2013 and reflects an unsatisfactory situation in its realization. It deals with new approaches and tasks of education in the field of security and state defence.

The article deals with current state of infantry fighting vehicles training and evaluates current status of training documentation (mainly based on own experience). It focuses on the development of crew training mainly based on example of wheeled IFV PANDUR II. The goal of the paper is open a professionally discussion on the topic the IFV´s crew training. Mainly evaluates training maps, which the author regards as essential.

The concept of modular forces seems to be an ideal solution for a topical dilemma: how to build a single set of units for a wide range of military operations. However, the concept of unit modularity has its limitations. The article explains how the modular force structure supports flexibility and consequently brings increased demand on the number of support units. For this reason, the modular force organisation cannot be built without massive investment in support capabilities. The concept of modularity includes the risk that shortage of support units will significantly limit the readiness of forces for a large conventional war. The author presents four recommendations for the application of the concept of modularity at a national level to facilitate the formation of allied forces.

The present article is devoted to the new kind of the Polish Armed Forces, namely the Territorial Defence Force (Polish: Wojska Obrony Terytorialnej, WOT), the essence of which is, i.a., territoriality. Among the many tasks facing this kind of military unit, there are the ones involving non-military threats.
By connecting the two basic elements mentioned above, the authors present in the following article the possibilities of using the Territorial Defence Force and the alternate process of administering the armed force component on a voivodeship level.

The establishment of the Permanent Structured Co-operation (PESCO) in defence in 2017 is one of the most important European initiatives of recent years, aiming at enhancing effectiveness in addressing security challenges and advancing towards further integrating defence cooperation within the EU framework. The article describes the genesis of PESCO and explains its functioning, including its legal framework, objectives, the role of the main actors and the dynamics of the whole process. The purpose of the article is to demonstrate the scope and strength of the more binding commitments that the participating Member States have decided to fulfil in the name of strengthening Europe's defence under the umbrella of the Common Security and Defence Policy.

The paper analyses goals of the Slovak and German foreign and security policy focused on their role in NATO as well as on the role by forming European security and defence policy. The paper deals with potential and opportunities for more intensive and effective cooperation between Slovakia and Germany regarding their security and defence policy orientation. It finds out that there are some important NATO and EU projects and initiatives, such as "out of area" missions engagement, battle groups building, Framework Nations Concept or a new announced project Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) to be used in the deepening process of Slovak-German security and defence relations.

The retraining courses of the Ministry of Defence aim to prepare soldiers for the civilian environment and to enable them to acquire the knowledge and skills that are applicable in the labour market. In the years 2008-2017 11 605 soldiers of the Czech Armed Forces terminated their service. The application for retraining was submitted by 3 644 persons, of whom 2 769 were retrained. The prevalence of retraining is in technical professions (1 342 persons) and in managerial and business training (832 persons). The research question and the statistical evaluation of the data obtained confirms the hypothesis that most soldiers were not retrained. The results of sociological research carried out among 313 former soldiers of the Czech Armed Forces show that more than three fifths of soldiers did not apply for retraining (64%), especially among higher positions and college graduates, because of no information about the data of termination of service (25%), no need for retraining (20 %) and not completing the retraining course (30 %) mostly because of the refusal of the superiors. The shortcomings of the retraining system of professional soldiers are summarized.

This article deals with the Czech defence industry and its role in the defense policy of the Czech Republic. The basic goal of the text is a short introduction to abilities of the Czech defence industry and answering the question if and how it is able to fulfil the demand of the Czech defence sector for an armament and a military gear. Basic items needed for a military capability of soldiers on a field and the ability to develop and produce them at the Czech territory is mainly examined.

The aim of the article is to make the general public acquainted with a new view of the state service issue and to offer the author´s observations and conclusions relating to state service issues. The article briefly explains the public service and defines the relationship between the public service and the state service. It describes the organization of the state service and the entities of service relationships in the Czech Republic. It deals with the employment relationship - its origin, non acceptance for employment relationship and its termination. It presents important milestones of the employment relationship, such as an oath of service, a clerical exam and a service evaluation. It characterizes the state service within the Ministry of Defence, clarifies the role and responsibilities of the Secretary of State within the Ministry of Defence, state employees and other categories of the staff in the service office.