Fulltext search in archive

Structured analysis is a systematic approach to solving intelligence analytic problems. Methodology and analytical techniques in the intelligence analysis include the selection of structured techniques from the point of view of the analytical task and the use of the analytical spectrum. Basic structured analytical techniques ensure transparency and reduce personality bias. Taxonomy is the basis for quality analysis. There are 55 types of techniques that complement expert judgment and intuition. A properly structured analysis contains twelve questions supplemented by a number of analytical techniques. The method of analytical spectrum in strategy leads to the split of the process into the phase of analysis, synthesis, selection of information and argumentation, and the analysis itself consists of four sub-stages. The basic parameters that negatively affect the use of structured analytical techniques by intelligence analysts are the analytical and collective approach, the patterns and the level of education.

In May 2017, Islamists of the South-Philippine Separate Groups of Abu Sajyaf and Maute occupied Marawi City in Mindanao. Five-month fighting was attended by more than 3,000 armed forces against about 1,000 jihadists. Dozens of foreign fighters took part in the fighting on the Islamists side and confirming the pan-Islamic ethos of the Islamic state's ideology in this part of the world. Philippine troops were not prepared for the character of fighting in urbanized environment against motivated and experienced militants. The shortcomings were manifested in the conducting of operations in a heavily built-up area, but also in low-level coordination and limits of capabilities of the technical intelligence. It was decided to create Special Operations Command to which all Philippine special purpose forces are subordinated. The conflict experience has initiated a change of doctrinal approach that focuses on air support to reduce losses due to inaccurate bombing and acquisitions of high-tech reconnaissance and weapon systems.

Dear readers,
We are pleased to share with you the text from the "Vojenství doma i v cizině" (Military at Home and Abroad) column, published in our journal in No. 4/1920. This and other historical papers can be viewed, read or downloaded from the website of our journal www.vojenskerozhledy.cz in the Archive menu.

Dear readers,
We are pleased to share with you the text from the "Vojenství doma i v cizině" (Military at Home and Abroad) column, published in our journal in No. 4/1920. This and other historical papers can be viewed, read or downloaded from the website of our journal www.vojenskerozhledy.cz in the Archive menu.

Is Georgia's integration into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) security structures leading to assured full membership? Ever since gaining independence in 1990, Georgia has tried to free itself from Russian influence, focusing on becoming a member of NATO. However, the Georgian journey to NATO is complicated by the country's internal political situation and external relations with Russia. Georgian internal conflicts with breakaway territories supported by Russia led to the Russian invasion into Georgian territory in 2008. Russia suppresses Georgian efforts to join NATO, considers the South Caucasus to be a strategic sphere of interest, and intends to exercise its influence there. Nevertheless, the current Georgian government continues to pursue NATO membership. Key determinants for any invitation to new members are whether their admission to NATO will strengthen the alliance, further the basic objective of NATO enlargement , and increase security and stability across Europe.

Tanks and anti-tank weapons in modernized and innovated forms will still appear on battlefields in the next 20 years to eliminate armoured targets and personnel with the usage of precision-guided munition. The progress of electronation and digitalization of tanks allows better situation awareness on the battlefield and cooperation with other military assets. An active protection measures were introduced to protect the crew such as reactive armour, active defence weapon systems and composite armour. By establishing a safe perimeter with active defence systems, tanks can sustain the incoming anti-tank weapons. Hence is the U.S. Army currently looking for a replacement of 3^rd generation Abrams tanks. The U.S. Army is considering in this case unmanned vehicle as well. The Russian Federation on the other hand enhances conventional tank scheme with modern technologies. Far too much electronation does not have to be necessarily due to the automatic loading mechanism always a step forward.

This article describes the basic terms used in prognostics (future studies, forecasting the future, prognosis, prediction, expert) and introduces selected prognostic methods and techniques which could be applied in security area (brainstorming, focus group, trend extrapolation, Delphi method, scenarios etc.). The basic classifications and prognosis typologies are mentioned as well. Particular phases of prognosis making are described too. For the Czech security community the prognosis making has an important potential whose outcomes (of particular surveys) should be manifest in following years. This text has only tried to outline selected methods and techniques for their potential application.

The EU Monitoring Mission (EUMM) is the only international monitoring presence operating in the region with the consent of the Russian Federation. However, almost 11 years in the area did not bring the desired result. The Russian Federation has strengthened its position in Abkhazia and South Ossetia with more than 20,000 troops on the ground, hardened the border and even prevented the schools from teaching children in Georgian. Following the assessment on the basis of three criteria (stabilization, normalization and confidence building), the EUMM attempts to increase the confidence building, to mediate among the actors in order to achieve a normal and a stable environment. But on the other hand, EUMM enables also the Russian federation to officialise its presence and its troops in the breakaway regions.

The article deals with selected international treaties, current agreements and international cooperation initiatives in the field of non-proliferation of nuclear and chemical weapons, in which the Czech Republic is represented through specific bodies or ministries. There is also a general description of the view and the specific military approach. The involvement of the MoD and the Czech Armed Forces in NATO structures enables to influence the strategic decision-making in the area of CBRN and thus support the current trends concerning forensic analysis, sampling of CBRN samples and response to new trends in the field of WMD elimination.

Rocket technology occupies an elite position in the doctrines of hybrid actors in the Middle East. The thesis of proliferation of tactical ballistic missiles analyses four models - political, technological, substitutional and propagandist-psychological. An effective reduction of ballistic missiles and technologies has been identified in the political model, where sanctions and embargoes limit the proliferation of missile technology. In the technical model, which plays a key role, the limiting factors are those of development and dissemination of high-energy laser weapons. The substitutional model illustrates the application of tactical ballistic missiles as carriers for improvised devices. It is of marginal importance, despite covering targets that involve secondary damage. Studying the model of propaganda and psychology confirms the psychological effect on the population associated with the losses, but it does not affect the reduction of missiles.

The article discusses the history and present state of instruction in the Arabic language in the Armed Forces of the United States and the United Kingdom within the context of their engagement in the Middle East. The analysis of the evolution of institutions tasked with Arabic language instruction since the end of the World War II mainly addresses the issues of fast language-capacity building and the cooperation between the Armed Forces and the academic sector. The main issue in state-organized instruction in non-standard languages is a discrepancy between the required long-term nature of building of linguistic capacities and an immediate need of states addressing new regional challenges requiring a specific knowledge of new languages.

The article thematically completes a series of articles which subject was to present outcomes of analyses focused on national as well as NATO and EU capability planning processes. Synthesis of analysis outcomes resulted in conceiving a methodologic framework for military capability assessment, whereas the first phase of this framework, i.e. configuration of the national capability requirements database, has been already described in the previous edition of the Czech Military Review. So this article details final phases of the proposed methodological framework, which are set of reference units and mechanism for matching capability requirements against current state capabilities. The key outcome of capability matching phase is identification of capability shortfalls and their subsequent prioritisation. The level of priority is expressed as a degree of operational risk and relates to an expected intensity of operational engagement of force units in military operations. This approach stems from the principle of the capability assessment process which shall be carried out by military experts and which deals exclusively with an expected military end-state in operations.

The Czech Army Military Medical Service is actually going through radical changes that could lead to the strong enhancement of its capabilities. The problem is a shortage of health personell in some specific medical branches to fulfill these ambitions. There are only 35 surgeons in the Czech army at present. Results of questionnaire survey performed in this group show a high level and preparedness for multinational deploytment in foreign missions, on the other hand put a lot of questions for future.

This review attempts to analyze in detail the specific roles and interests of the key players represented by Pakistan and India in Afghanistan. The focus of individual actors in the South Asian region was focused on identifying key objectives, defining specific national interests and strategies in Afghanistan. The aim of the article is to find out, analyze, interpret and understand information about the power relations of Pakistan and India in relation to the security situation in Afghanistan. The content focuses on the analysis of Pakistan-India relations and their intertwining in Afghan society. The aim is not to relate the content to a generalized theory or known theoretical paradigm of international relations, but to analyze the aspects of the Afghanistan in relation to Pakistan and India.

Dear readers,
We would like to present to you the contributions from the "Prameny k dějinám našeho vojska" (Sources of History of Our Army) column, published in our journal in No. 3/1920. In this column, the journal's editorial staff regularly concentrated their contributions for prospective research. This and other historical papers can be viewed, read or downloaded from the website of our journal www.vojenskerozhledy.cz in the Archive menu.

The Armed Forces of BiH were officially unified in 2005 and are composed of two founding armies: the Bosniak-Croat Army of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Bosnian Serb Army of Republika Srpska. Even though the unified armed forces celebrated their 13^th anniversary in December 2018 and are presented as a success story, the political environment in Bosnia and Herzegovina, particularly in Republika Srpska, does not foster a sense of unity in the armed forces. The paper explores the vulnerabilities that the unified armed forces face, particularly in relation to the process of state building in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The text concludes, that the main concerns for the BiH armed forces include the old equipment, the economic problems of the country and budget constraints, politicisation and ethnicisation - while ongoing nationalism and the unsure future of BiH remain the greatest external challenges.

The article provides partial results of the research Strategic Analysis Methods applicable within the Defence Department of the Czech Republic. This research addresses a low level of use of strategic analysis methods in the development of strategic and conceptual documents of the department. In the years 2017 and 2018, interviews with the processors of these documents were carried out and the problems related to the use of strategic analysis methods in sector planning were analysed. In particular, the article analyses the content and utilization process of stakeholder analysis method, SWOT analysis, future scenarios, benchmarking and GAP analysis.

In conclusion of article in Military Review No 3, 2011, the authors gave notice about a sequel to this article. Today they describe military deception form another point of vies. They depict the creation of false picture, deception in the frame of operational planning. The authors accentuate that not only Asian countries, but also western ones look back to classical works on military art, e.g. Sun Tzu, The Art of War (around 2,000 years ago). Sun Tzu's philosophy recommended a strategic method to win that rarely required actual war. Spies, diplomats, deception, and a correctly organised internal structure were his main tools. If it came to war, he recommended among others to use detailed and elaborated military deception.

This paper deals with the phenomenon of Jihadist foreign terrorist fighters from the perspective of East Central European countries. Over the past decade, the term 'foreign terrorist fighter' has become established in scholarly literature, international law and the popular consciousness. Today, Jihadist foreign terrorist fighters are closely watched globally for the security threat they pose. Although the greatest danger in Europe is seen to be to nations in the west, several cases in East Central Europe - involving terrorists travelling through the region and attempting to radicalise local jihadists - have led Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic to adopt important legislation to eliminate this threat.

The article deals with the applicability of professional soldiers in the labour market after the termination of military service. Its aim is to outline the information about the unemployment of former soldiers and to present the main results of sociological research, which was held among 313 former members of the Czech Armed Forces. Based on the processing of statistics of the Labour Office of the Czech Republic, it was found out that on average 18% of former soldiers of productive age were 8 months without employment during 2008 - 2017. With the help of a questionnaire survey, it was found out that more than a fifth of the respondents were looking for an employment in the civilian sector for more than half a year. The majority of respondents do not perceive the system of preparation for a second career of soldiers as elaborate. They state that the issue of second career was not addressed during their military service. There are possible recommendations for improving the current state of integration of soldiers into the labour market at the end of the article.

The article deals with the possibility of using artillery fire with the multiple round simultaneous impact, for artillery weapon systems currently used in the Army of the Czech Republic. It aims to analyze the existing artillery procedures and then describe the possibilities, benefits and possible negatives of multiple rounds simultaneus impact fires. In the end, specific requirements are set that must be met for the effective use of fire with the simultaneous impact of missiles with currently used artillery weapon systems.

The paper presents selected knowledge and findings of the sociological survey, which was focused on identifying the needs and problems of modern war veterans leaving the military service in 2018. The findings of the research point to recurrent problems in communication and information transmission to the ending soldiers in their service as well as the lack of information in relation to the resort's offers of care and assistance to war veterans. The subjects involved in the war veteran care system do not always have full current information, which may lead to negative reactions and attitudes of some military personnel that the setting system does not adequately respond to soldiers' problems and needs, especially before leaving military service.

In 2018, it has been already ten years since one of the major wars of the post-Cold War period, namely, the war between Georgia and the Russian Federation. This war lasted only for five days, but it also became an important milestone in the development of the international security relations as well as the military science at the beginning of the 21^st century. The article evaluates its geopolitical framework on the basis of the neorealist theory of the balance of security threats and it also deals with its impact on the development of the Russian military.

The global security environment brings forward different and surprising challenges for the armed forces, which require a good training and preparation. One way of sorting out the endeavour is using scenarios, the concept used extensively in the military field, the military field being the initiator of this concept. Military scenario development is the subject of this article, which is going to bring some essential characteristics and propose a working option for elaborating a scenario. The final aim is to help military planners have a good working procedure when developing a scenario in order to create a document updated with warfare evolution and operational planning process ready to respond to all risks and threats. The scenario is a way used by military structures at all levels of military art (strategical, operational and tactical) to get in contact with a probable unknown situation, to assimilate it and to sort it out. The article focuses on the scenario development process and proposes stages and activities that should be followed by a joint operational group when tasked with preparing a scenario.

The fire support is an inevitable prerequisite for the success of combat forces in land military operations and artillery is its key provider. Will it be even in a future complex and uncertain operating environment? The article recalls high requirements on the current ACR artillery and with the use of the Alliance partner's findings, it points to selected aspects that might influence its capabilities development towards the future operations. The article defines artillery as an indirect fire system and clarifies its role and tasks in the framework of joint fire support. It proposes measures to increase the quality of its training and management. It discusses the issue of an operational concept and its importance for the future ACR artillery, together with introducing main trends in areas of its potential development.

Příspěvek se zabývá vybranými bezpečnostními aspekty námořních hraničních linií Státu Izrael. V krátkosti vymezuje současnou organizaci izraelského válečného námořnictva a jeho vybavení pro zabezpečování izraelské svrchovanosti proti hrozbám přicházejícím z moře, včetně zadržovacích operací vedoucích k zabránění šíření zbraní do rukou protiizraelských teroristických organizací. V souvislosti s izraelskou námořní blokádou pásma Gazy je komentována legitimita takového kroku a mezinárodněpolitické konsekvence jejího vynucování. Ekonomické souvislosti přetrvávajících problémů stran izraelské námořní hranice jsou evidentní na příkladu sporu o právo k využití podmořských nalezišť plynu.