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Possibilities of Tactical Activities Optimization in the Framework of Engineer UnitsReviewed - ReviewDoc. Ing. Jaroslav ZELENÝ, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2016, Vol. XXV. (LVII.): 91-101 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.25.2016.01.091-101 The article presents possible approaches to solve problems of finding the optimum state of tactical activities within the level of small Engineer Units. The intention is, by elaborating of the partial engineer goal which is focussed on the area of engineer units' tactics, to develop input data/ information needed for further development of mathematical models of the tactical activities. Subsequently, with the judgement on modelling outputs (applicability within C2 activities of staffs' task force structures) from engineer unit tactics point of view, the article contributes to enhancing all of C2 processes effectiveness. The article also provides us with information about the range of facts relative with problems of selected engineer unit (counter-mobility task forces) deployment planning, and controlling. There can be also found inventory of activities appropriate for optimization. |
Chemical Corps Contribution to CBRN Exploitation and Forensics CapabilityNonreviewed - Otherkpt. Ing. Radim Zahradníček, pplk. doc. Ing. Pavel Otřísal, Ph.D., MBAVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2016, Vol. XXV. (LVII.): 109-117 Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, danger of misusage of toxic materials, terrorism and other phenomena of current security environment are factors that lead to the development of capabilities of the Chemical Corps. The paper is looking at the problem of collecting evidence and forensic attribution of responsibility for hostile acts. This capability is required by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and is supported by experience from military operations, which confirm the validity and significance of required changes. The article presents some recommendations that may lead to development of units that will contribute to the ability of collecting evidence and thus support forensics. |
Strategic Documents of the Czech Republic and Ministry of Defence AcquisitionsReviewed - ReviewIng. Antonín Novotný, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2016, Vol. XXV. (LVII.): 21-32 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.25.2016.03.021-032 This article aims to reflect a digression into the history of selected strategic documents, which processed the Ministry of Defence or was in the processing involved - in connection to the planning of acquisitions. The ambition of the article is not a comprehensive evaluation process, but only the selected aspects. After many years of decreasing Czech defence budget, is here the opposite situation. In connection with the new situation it is necessary to rethink the current approach to this topic; to ensure maximal security of the Czech Republic and in a figurative sense NATO and the European Union also. The fact, that the Czech strategy document was among the best in the EU, does not mean that defence spending is automatically efficient. |
Experience from Canceled Sajkovac Base Extend the Czech Armed Forces Engineer CapabilitiesNonreviewed - Reviewnpor. Ing. Jan Hanudeľ, plk. doc. Ing. Pavel Maňas Ph.D., mjr. Ing. Jiří Štoller Ph.D., pplk. v.z. Ing. Vojtěch HanudeľVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2016, Vol. XXV. (LVII.): 102-113 The article deals with experience in closure of military bases in foreign operations. It follows in article Life cycle of military bases in foreign operations, published in Vojenské rozhledy Nr. 4/2009. The text of article presents current knowledge about the life cycle of military bases and general principles from the perspective of the latest NATO Handbook. The theoretical part of the article introduces weighting method of decision analysis, which compares current ways for the field bases closure. Authors describe findings from base closure Šajkovac that significantly influenced removal activities. |
Security and Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation in SyriaReviewed - ReviewMgr. Lukáš TichýVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 37-50 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.24.2015.02.037-050 During the Arab Spring Revolution, when the protests against the Syrian government began in 2011, Russia was one of the strongest backers of President Bashar al-Assad's regime, backing its right to use force if necessary to prevent or put down an uprising. Currently, the Russian Federation is the power which has most prominently provided a diplomaticshieldforthe Syrian state and bolstered it witharms supplies, although Moscow talks about the need to "balance" between the warring parties in Syria. The main aim of this paper is to analyze the motives of the foreign and security policy of the Russian Federation in support of Syrian President BasharAssad in the background of Russian interests and influence of norms. At the theoretical level, the paper builds upon a combination of conventional constructivism and rationalism approaches, which in relation to the motives of Russian protection and defense of the ruling regime in Syria reflects a number of fundamental knowledge. |
Research of Al-Qa'ida Has Never been Easier: an Overview of the Sources of Primary DataNonreviewed - OtherMgr. Petr ZelinkaVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 46-60 There has never been so much primary data on al-Qa'ida publicly available. Nevertheless primary data are still not used enough, despite the fact that their omission had a clearly detrimental effect on the quality of research on al-Qa'ida. The article's goal is twofold: to lay out an overview of the publicly available sources of primary data on al-Qa'ida and by highlighting interesting aspects of their content to demonstrate their usefulness for the research in general. The article deals particularly with outputs of public institutions, al-Qa'ida's members' publications, al-Qa'ida's members' communication that has been made public and leaked classified information. The topic how to use the sources of primary data will be discussed briefly. The article aims at encouraging the academic and expert community to use primary data more broadly when researching al-Qa'ida. |
The Legality of the Military Police Activities by Granting Aid as a Host Nation Support OperationReviewBrig. gen. JUDr. Pavel Kříž, LL.M., Mgr. Ing. Leopold Skoruša, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2016, Vol. XXV. (LVII.): 33-45 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.25.2016.03.033-045 The paper deals with the principle of legality during putting in practice of Military police support to allied armed forces in the Host nation Support operation on the Czech Republic territory. Security of sending nation armed forces weaknesses have been identified on the base of analysis of the issue current state supplemented by the legal framework assessment. Suggestions, for expert discussion of Military police authority change, are in the last chapter. |
EU Battle Groups' Deployability in ESDP OperationsMilitary artIng. Jaroslav KulíšekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 31-58 Factors such as distance, destination, deployment demands, duration, represent key elements to determine logistics requirements. The EU BG concept necessitates considerable strategic air/sea lift and combat support capabilities, since EU battle groups are to be able to be deployed almost anywhere in the world, primarily in Africa. They have to deploy both troops and materiel simultaneously to its mission areas. Strategic airlift is the fastest way of deploying troops over long distance. The main challenge for the EU is therefore availability giant airplanes. A lack of suitable European transport crafts in EBalabáuropean airlift fleet is the Achilles heel to the EU BG Concept. The problem is that all aircraft available have only limited payload capacities and flying range. Although deploying by sea is more time consuming than deploying by air, EU member states have more ships available for strategic sea transport. The strict deployment deadline set down in the EU BG Concept means that ships and crews will have to be held at very high readiness. |
Theory of Gravity in War on International TerrorismMilitary artIng. Ján SpišákVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 47-64 Official objectives of war on terrorism are as follows: we must face theorist threats, prevent terrorist strikes; suppress the power of terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda. War on terrorism is not a classical or conventional warfare; the term is wide-ranging, covering longterm strategies of national importance. The war on terrorism and employed means are also a source of controversy. It is a question of adequacy of used tools. It is necessary to implement the new strategy of improving conditions in Muslim countries to eliminate their background supporting negative religious and political attitudes towards democracy. Outlined ways of "smoothing edges" in economical, social spheres can noticeably change hateful attitudes of Muslim population towards values of Western democratic society. |
Will Military Deception Pass Away?Opinions, controversyDoc. Ing. Milan Kubeša, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 97-100 There are no military conflicts without deception, as it is among others a very cheap method how to contribute to the successful accomplishment of the assigned mission. Military deception (MILDEC) is applicable across a wide range of military operations. MILDEC can be conducted during all phases of military operations at strategic, operational, and tactical levels. It is defined as being those actions executed to deliberately mislead adversary decision makers as to friendly military capabilities, intentions, and operations, thereby causing the adversary to take specific actions (or inactions) that will contribute to the accomplishment of the friendly mission. According to he author, the operational deception is to be explained in more detail, basic rules are to be outlined, including fundamental principles and methods of deception for operational planning. |
The Various Ways of Civil-Military Development (Concepts and Doctrines)ReviewedIng. Pavel Zona, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 20-29 With the running changes in methods of modern operations within NATO framework, there are also changes in demands and tasks in the scope of civil-military operations-CIMIC. They are incorporated in many documents, such as the Comprehensive Political Guidance, New Concept of Civil-Military Cooperation or Field Manual 3-07 Stability Operations. The CIMIC capacities ought to be used for active impact on impending security situation, crisis development, impact implemented more sooner then crises might escalate to conflicts, eventually they could be used to halt the conflicts, in the places where they are a threat to Alliance security. We must create new rules of co-operations between civil and military sections, with the use of Alliance materials, resources and documents from conferences, seminars and field working shops. Today we have also abundant experiences that the Army of the Czech Republic, its CIMIC section, have acquired in preceding ten years. |
The Lines of Operation Concept (Part II)Military artIng. Ján SpišákVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 53-64 The fundamentals of this concept, as they were explained in previous Military Review No 1, 2011, have stayed unchanged, up to the present. There still exist operational bases, directions, courses, lines, upon which military convoys transfer by the plan or in disorderly manner. Such picture corresponds to linear wars of first, second and third generations. The wars of fourth generation are characterized by the speed and initiative. The frontiers between war and politics are blurred, so are between civilians and combatants. They are mostly wars with and among non-state actors, counter-insurgency operations (COIN) Based on doctrinal analysis; author describes concepts philosophy in functional and logical aspects. This might help the commander and staff to visualize the arrangement of military capabilities in time, space, and purpose to accomplish the mission. The concept might be successfully applied in connection with stability and COIN operations. |
Critical Looks at Hybrid Wars ConceptMilitary artIng. Pavel Zůna, MSSVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 33-45 The term "hybrid war" is frequently used today within the military community, but the term does not bring something new in the view of the terminology of the stability operations, comprehensive approach or compound wars. This concept is based on the destructive threats to the military components of international community. It does not help in delimiting reasons of violent confl ict and from that point it is harmful, as it does not explain soldiers why they are fi ghting the "just war", why they should sacrifi ce their lives in confl icts far away from their homeland. We should not use terms of hybrid wars, hybrid confl icts, hybrid enemies or forces. Only "hybrid warfare" could find some legitimacy, but only when used with the correct definition of the conflict typology, backed by the political objectives of the war. Confl icts typology, as used, forms the framework for the mission analysis orientation at all command & control levels and it guides the informational support to the military decision making processes. |
Peace OperationsMilitary artPlk. gšt. Ing. Jaromír Zůna, MSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2007, Vol. XVI. (XLVIII.): 41-50 The end of the Cold War was the most important factor determinating political and security realities in the world. Consequent development has gradually led to the significant reengagement of the former Warsaw Pact member states and other military alliances, especially into all form of peace operations. The Czech Republic is following the path common for the other countries in Euroatlantic region, being motivated by common struggle for enlargement this area of stability, security, democracy and peaceful resolution of crises. Hand in hand, with growing experiences from peace operations, the Czech Republic reflects specificities of national security and military strategies, as well as the level of declared military ambitions. Principal changes the Czech forces undergoing now are aiming at fulfilment basic principles of the Security Strategy of the Czech Republic. Participation of the Czech Republic in peace operations and operations outside the republic is becoming the most predominant form of deployment of our armed forces. Therefore, peace operations studies are more pressing today than ever before in the past. |
The Deployment of Capacities and Means of Czech Engineer Troops in Non-combat OperationsMilitary professionalDoc. Ing. Jaroslav Zelený, CSc., Ing. Jan Mazal, CSc., pplk. Ing. Lubomír Kroupa, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 164-178 The Engineers are specialist soldiers trained in the construction and demolition of bridges, field fortifications, obstacles, roads, etc. Their major task is to support Czech missions abroad, as a part of multinational peacekeeping forces. This article is a preliminary study into the current state of applying the Czech Engineer units in operations other than war as a part of Joint Forces Peace Support Operations. There are mentioned some aspects, for example basic engineer support tasks, possible demanded future capabilities of the Czech Engineer Troops, engineer support to movement and force protection engineering. The purpose of this article is to initiate a debate about the topic and to start the brainstorming process in a broad military environment. |
The Lines of Operation Concept (Part I)Military artIng. Ján SpišákVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 38-49 There are two great interpreters of the Napoleonic experience, Jomini and Clausewitz. Both were interested in the application of military force to achieve political goals. The article familiarizes readers with Jomini's theoretical fundamentals of operational design elements, namely the lines of operations. Jomini left a great mark on the details of strategic planning: campaign planning, the selection of the theatre of operation, the base of operation, the line of operation, and decisive points. At the end of this process of selection was the final deployment for the decisive battle. Jomini's major contribution, then, was to provide the geometry of the battle space. In his investigation of the nature of war he developed several key operational concepts. As an operational art tools they help the commander and staff to visualize the arrangement of military capabilities in time, space, and purpose to accomplish the mission. The concept of operational lines is evolved in all operational functions in terms of ongoing military missions. |
The Czechs in AfghanistanInformational pagesRNDr. Nikola Hynek, M.A., doc. PhDr. Jan Eichler, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 88-100 The Provincial Reconstruction Team of Czech Republic operates in very complicated conditions and environment that are in fact hostile. It can't be excluded that growing scepticism, today common among Afghanistan security experts, more or less could affects even Czech members of ISAF missions. This study deals with existing knowledge end experiences of Czech PRT in Afghanistan. It is divided into two parts. The fi rst one concerns with outside and inside factors infl uencing ISAF missions. It brings in details characteristics of geographical, historic ambiances in which ISAF mission are performed. The second part concentrates on tangible experiences of Czech PRT members, both in political and military spheres. Here the authors summarize conclusions and upon them they outline challenges for the future. |
War GameMilitary artIng. Jaroslav KulíšekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 60-82 War game is a simulation of military operations intended to train military commanders or to test a proposed strategy. It is a game in which model soldiers are used to create battles, in order to study tactics. This article illustrates the importance of War Game COAs (course of action). It was tested against opposing force COAs. Such exercise will help to identify advantages and disadvantages and the key elements of execution planning for each COA. The lesson learned during OHQ CZE/SVK BG EU Staff Exercises that took place in Olomouc from January 19th, to January 23rd, and from February 16th, to February 20th, 2009 is that war-gaming (although time consuming) is something closer to "reality" than the "theory" in doctrines. The war-gaming practices teamwork, facilitates team-building and enables to share mental model COA. Commanders and their staff ought to be engaged in simulations and war games more frequently. All information and sources for this paper were drawn from unclassified materials. |
Influence of Operating Environment Changing for Development of of Military Medical Service CapabilitiesReviewed - Reviewplk. gšt. MUDr. Richard Kraus, doc. Ing. Milan Kubeša, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 159-171 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.24.2015.03.159-171 The following thesis focuses on the issues regarding deployment of medical forces within the shifting operational environment. It analyzes its development stages and considers their meaning and influence on current and forecasted developments of military health capabilities in the long run. The authors' fundamental research question is to be whether the changes to the operational environment's dynamics and scope will substantiate as the defining factors for ensuring interoperability with Alliance partners, for the purposes of developing new type of medical capabilities needed. Moreover, the importance of a rarely emphasized role of operational art in military medicine is discussed. Such tool seems to be a key element for the harmonization of strategic objectives with long-term tactical activities. |
Some Remarks to Military TerminologyNonreviewed - Otherplk. v. v. Ing. Karel Kozák, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 106-112 |
Threats from the East and the South as V4 Defence and Security Cooperation CatalysersReviewed - Reviewkpt. PhDr. Jakub KufčákVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 30-37 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.24.2015.04.030-037 Recent developments in security environment in the last two years re-opened crucial European debates such as the reform of the NATO architecture to address resurgent Russia to the East and as finding common European solution to migratory pressures that test both national capabilities and European solidarity. Even through the Visegrád countries do not always share common interests, the V4 manifests that it can play indispensable role in reaction to these developments. However, V4 still lacks actually proactive regional approach that would accommodate polish interests in order to keep informal leader Poland invested in this cooperation format. Polish elections mean one more challenging test for the V4 to coordinate positions before the crucial NATO Warsaw summit. Should this endeavor be unsuccessful, Poland could look to other formats that mirror its interests and threat perception more closely meaning that V4 would take a back seat with regard to NATO agenda. The task for the Czech V4 presidency is to produce practical results in ongoing ambitious project in defence cooperation so that is demonstrates the cooperation's 'added value.' |
Overview of the Foreign Experience of the Influence of Additive Manufacturing on Development and Deployment of Military TechnologyReviewed - ReviewMgr. Jakub HaraštaVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 64-71 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.24.2015.02.064-071 The paper presents the additive manufacturing method as a possible alternative to the current subtractive manufacturing methods. Based on literature survey, some of the problematic aspects of the discrepancy between the lengthy development cycles and rapidly changing operational demands responsive to current threats are identified. The paper also includes some thoughts on possibilities of solving inadequacies in the development cycles, as well as related logistical apparatus, by additive manufacturing. For the sake of objectivity, the last part is dedicated to deficits of additive manufacturing, being inherent to technology or possibly to be overcome by further development of the field. |
Acquisition of Knowledge and Insights Gained Through "Lessons Learned" Process and Implementation in Czech Armed ForcesReviewed - Reviewpplk. Ing. Janka Kosecová, Doc. Ing. Milan Kubeša, CSc., mjr. Ing. František GrmelaVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 72-85 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.24.2015.01.072-085 The process of the Lessons Learned in the Czech Armed Forces is not ideal for several reasons. One of them is the underestimation of the process by top management. Another one is the low level of awareness of the process, institutions, possibilities and importance of the Lessons Learned Process as a whole. The aim of this article is to clarify the Lessons Learned Process as a tool to support the organization. The first part of the article deals with the process of the Lessons Learned in the Czech Armed Forces including terminology. The second part of the article describes the factual implementation of the Lessons Learned in the Czech Armed Forces. It points out achievements as well as drawbacks during its implementation. In addition to that, it introduces the current Czech military publications dealing with this topic. The conclusion presents the description of some suggestions and recommendations for further development of this process. |
Output Specifics of Rapid Map Products within the Framework of Geospatial Support at a Strategic LevelReviewed - Reviewplk. Ing. Vladimír Kovařík, MSc. Ph.D., pplk. Ing. Jan Marša, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 106-120 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.23.2014.01.106-120 This paper deals with a geospatial support at a strategic level, especially with the production of rapid map products, presenting at this level the most required product type. Backed by their own working experiences from both NATO and EU command structures, the authors describe requirements for geospatial products created at a strategy level, emphasizing the importance of respecting the general cartographic principles. The authors compare the general technology of thematic map production, making use of Geographic Information System, technology, with the technology specific to the strategic level. They also describe the specifics of production at that level, presenting examples both similarities and differences between geospatial support in NATO and the EU. |
Conceptual Development of the AFCR - Approaches and Strategic Starting PointsReviewed - ReviewIng. František Mičánek, Ing. Josef Procházka, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 4-19 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.24.2015.01.004-019 This paper aims to enrich professional discussion on future shape of the Armed Forces of the Czech Republic (AFCR) and is linked to the preceding research and publishing activities of members of the Centre for Security and Military Strategic Studies (CBVSS) at the University of Defence. In its first part, it performs a historical tour to the year 2012 and highlights the reasons that the former leadership of the ACR led to the start of construction work on the concept of AFCR (KVAČR). Briefly describes the interconnection and the hierarchy of individual conceptual and strategic documents, the procedure works on them and summarizes the arguments supporting the need of KVAČR as such. The next section brings potential methodological approaches to the preparation of this document, using the method of the "9S", including practical examples, it renumbers basic strategic assumptions and priorities in various stages, bordered by years 2020 and 2025 as a prerequisite for formulating strategies for achieving this specific goal. Within the document, there is a short excursion into the field of long-term planning for major areas of skills, using their description of DOTMLPFI functional areas, including an example of using this methodology in project preparation of program funding. The recommendations formulated in the article are based on the authors' best experiences with the preparation of documents of a similar type in the years 2003-2013, the recommendations of experts from the broader security community of the Czech Republic, and recommendations of the Alliance. As such, it has been passed to the KVAČR processors at level of the General Staff of AFCR over the years 2013-2014. |
How to Ensuere Population Protection During Endangering of the State, and the State of War?Nonreviewed - ResearchIng. Jiří Halaška, Ph.D., prof. MUDr. Leoš Navrátil, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 58-67 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.24.2015.04.058-067 The lecture discusses the possible forms and methods for further development of Population protection, focusing on implementation of measures to protect the population at higher crisis status. The aim of the lecture is to analyze possible priorities, resources, and procedures for population protection in serious and large-scale crisis situations using all available forces and capabilities of the State and citizens. The work also deals with the possibility of more effective measures of population protection during announcement of higher crisis status generating additional forces and means and methods for the management of these measures. The aim of the work is among other things to point out the fact that the measures of population protection must be prepared in perspective and comprehensive and must reflect the potential risks, including the large scale crisis, which may be occur in the territory. |
Destruction of Syrian Chemical Weapons: The Next Step to the Global Chemical DisarmamentReviewed - OtherIng. Ladislav Středa, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2014, Vol. XXIII. (LV.): 88-101 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.23.2014.04.088-101 This paper is above all a quick piece of information on current problem which could have provoked a large war in the Middle East. And also about a unique operation to resolve it. Syrian chemical weapons used to be a serious threat to the entire Middle East, mainly in the context of the ongoing civil war. This was confirmed by repeated use of nerve agent sarin during the conflict. The destruction of Syrian chemical weapons eliminated the threat of escalation of the conflict and its extension to other countries. |
Back to the Future: Counterfactuals and Scenarios in Defense Research and PlanningReviewed - ReviewRNDr. Jan Kofroň, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2015, Vol. XXIV. (LVI.): 48-61 | DOI: 10.3849/1210-3292.24.2015.03.048-061 Defense planning and research has to engage with questions about future developments quite often. Solutions to these questions tend to be hazy due to (I) the missing data, or due to (II) the necessity to build long-term prognoses, which are - by their very nature - only remotely related to any current or historical empirical cases. Under these conditions counterfactuals and their specific - future- oriented - form: scenarios, offer a valuable tool. Nevertheless, counterfactuals and scenarios, due to their limited empirical embeddedness, demand explicit and rigorous application of a theory. The article highlights often overlooked resemblance of scenarios and counterfactuals and derives from this fact some methodological implications for scenario building enterprise. Beyond that, it aims at demonstrating possible contributions as well as obstacles inherent for the use of scenarios and counterfactuals in our defense policy debates. |

