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This article aims at building a bridge upon a gap, which separates academic sphere and intelligence community in the issue of predictive methodology. The author tries to accomplish this objective by presenting intelligence predictive methods based on open-source literature research. First, the question of uncertainty and probability in prediction is introduced (Cynefin template). Then follows basic introduction to predictive methods in civil and military intelligences, so that the reader might grasp the fundamentals of early warning systems. The academics and above all journalists should know the risks and perils in forming intelligence forecasts, estimates, foresight and warning scenarios, e.g. the so-called Black Swan scenario, the author explains potentials failures of the Delphi method. This study ought to be regarded as an introductory to predictive intelligence concurrently done by governmental agencies for purposes of national security and defence.

He was born in 1925 in Cieszyn Silesia Region of the former Czechoslovakia, where three nationalities lived together: Czechs, Gemans and Poles. His family was forced to adopt the so-called Volksliste No. 3 and therefore in 1944 he had to joint the German army. He became an artillerist and was transferred to France, where he deserted toether with his two friends, also from his native MoravianSilesina Region. After detention in a POWs camp in Scotland he volunteered for the Czechoslovak Independent Armour Brigade. He fought in France, later even in Czech lands. In civil life he graduated as a teacher and started to teach at the school for junior officers, but as a member of western armies was not allowed to teach in military school. But is was possible for him to work in civil schools till 1957, when he was found politically incompetent and began to work as a coal miner. In the period of liberalization in 1968 he returned to school.

This paper deals with aspects of intelligence analysis that very often influence the quality of intelligence information utilized by end users. Such analysis requires not only analytical thinking, but also specific experiences of all personnel exploiting collected information. The same body of information may result in multiple analytic products, with different security classifications, time scales, and level of detail. The result of this process is an analytical product - evaluation without any idle speculation and pseudo prophecy. Evaluation and interpretation must describe up-to-date conditions and demonstrate the clusters of future images with alternative developments. Reasonable evaluation reduces uncertainty and makes user's decision easier. At the end the author concentrates on rules of analytical team control and management.

War game is a simulation of military operations intended to train military commanders or to test a proposed strategy. It is a game in which model soldiers are used to create battles, in order to study tactics. This article illustrates the importance of War Game COAs (course of action). It was tested against opposing force COAs. Such exercise will help to identify advantages and disadvantages and the key elements of execution planning for each COA. The lesson learned during OHQ CZE/SVK BG EU Staff Exercises that took place in Olomouc from January 19th, to January 23rd, and from February 16th, to February 20th, 2009 is that war-gaming (although time consuming) is something closer to "reality" than the "theory" in doctrines. The war-gaming practices teamwork, facilitates team-building and enables to share mental model COA. Commanders and their staff ought to be engaged in simulations and war games more frequently. All information and sources for this paper were drawn from unclassified materials.

The article familiarizes readers with theoretical assumptions of planning and strategical decisionmaking in Defence Department and Czech armed forces. The author finds connections and similarities among others with public sector and civilian structures tied with budget spending. The strategical level of planning is a highly complicated and expert procedure. At present, planning process in defence department, within MoD sector, is specifi ed by the Order of Defence Minister No. 33, 2004. In this document, there are highly elaborated principles and rules of planning of activities and development implemented in defence sector. The article is based upon papers and reports presented at the Defence Sources Course, MIDMC 2001-06, Resources Management Institute, USA, held at the Military Academy Brno in 2001, and documents dealing with managerial problems.

Relations between NATO and the Russian Federation are one of key factors influencing overall policy of the whole North Atlantic Alliance. They are complicated and sophisticated questions still predisposed by the heritage of the Cold War.But there are mutual fears, common security problems they both have to counter. NATO policy must be established upon present-day reality. It is self-evident that there are common fields of common interests in which mutual balance must be reached. There are among others: armament, preventing arms proliferation, halting proliferation of nuclear, biological and chemical agents, antimissiles defence, counter-terrorism, drugs smuggling, open sea security, common peace operations. After two years the Russian-Georgia war started, military cooperation between Russia and NATO was re-established. Separate problem in midterm prospects presents the solving of conflict in Afghanistan.

The key term in this article is "war economy" It is used to describe the contingencies undertaken by the state to mobilise its economy for war production. Often confused term "resource conflicts" needs explaining. First, there are raw materials, mineral resources (diamonds, precious metals). Another group of resources are critical items, water supplies, and fertile lands. This article concentrates on conflicts provoked by the abundance of natural sources, not by their insufficiency. Their driving motive is "greed-based" model (the effort to take over the control over lands, crude oils). Another model is "grievance-based" model, based upon the feeling of hate, having its roots in e.g. underprivileged position of certain part of population) tied with worsening economy). "War economy" got a new meaning. It moved far away from Clauzewitz's paradigm, the sense of such war is in itself, the war is protracted, it is war for war's sake.

Official objectives of war on terrorism are as follows: we must face theorist threats, prevent terrorist strikes; suppress the power of terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda. War on terrorism is not a classical or conventional warfare; the term is wide-ranging, covering longterm strategies of national importance. The war on terrorism and employed means are also a source of controversy. It is a question of adequacy of used tools. It is necessary to implement the new strategy of improving conditions in Muslim countries to eliminate their background supporting negative religious and political attitudes towards democracy. Outlined ways of "smoothing edges" in economical, social spheres can noticeably change hateful attitudes of Muslim population towards values of Western democratic society.

The artillery of the Army of the CR is indispensable part of Czech armed forces. It will take part in operational activities, in the frame of EBAO concept (Effect Based Approach to Operations), acting in contact with various task forces. To meet those objectives, it must reach highest level of modulability. The article depicts all variants of effective augmentation by artillery firepower, artillery reconnaissance, and close artillery support. It enumerates all possible combinations of this reinforcement. Backed by those acquired specifics, the authors further extrapolate demands for automated control system of artillery fire support.

After 1989 public opinion polls have become inseparable part of examining our society. By analysing aggregate response data over time, we can see trajectories into the future. This might help MoD officials in decision-making processes, planning long-term developments. The "Army and Public" poll is concentrated on the attitudes of Czech population to topics such as the prestige of a professional soldier, military profession, NATO membership, confidence in public administration, last but not least, the Czech missions abroad. Positive mindsets appeared namely after 1996-97, when Czech army helped during catastrophic flood. In assessing period 2006-2009 most of respondents agreed with the statement that foreign missions proved the qualities of our army, their approval with our engagement in Afghanistan and Iraq rose significantly (by 33,1 per cent), attitudes against Kosovo were unbalanced.

This article deals with the EU command and control functions and provides basic information on the structure and capabilities of the EU CCS in Battle Group EU operations. The author describes political and strategical levels CCS (COREPER, GAERC, COPS, CivCom, EUMC, EUMS, BDE HQ, prospective EU FHQ). Only US, EU and E3 (Britain, France, Germany) are capable to realize integrated expeditional operations. The ACR can work only with cooperation with them. The Czech Republic as a small EU member state is actively engaged in the building of the Battle Group EU. The Czech Army is going to increase its expeditionary capabilities as demanded and be prepared for a broader range of conflicts and crises in the vital area of the EU concerns. At present, the ACR is able to carry out a self-supported, integrated expedition operation only on the edge of all its strength. The political leaders must bear this fact in mind, as the army mustn't be overburdened, otherwise it might lose its credibility. All information and data for this paper were drawn from unclassified sources.

The outcomes of battles and fighting are significantly influenced by weather conditions. Together with other important circumstances they decide a chosen combat strategy, operational art, warfare tactics, and ways of personnel and vehicles deployment; consequently the volume of losses or casualties. The authors recount the establishing of weather service within individual arms, creating fi rst weather charts, they give details on situation in pre-war republic, during WWII, in the 50s, even after the Velvet Revolution in 1989. They mention the names of eminent personalities of Czech Hydrometeorological Service to be honoured and remembered. We must also remind that our Hydrometeorological Service works not only in favour of the ACR, but also for other NATO countries.

The Ministry of Finance Regulation No. 415, 2008, sets the scope and structure of initial documents for midterm plans of state budget. The Regulation was further specified under the Order by Minister of Defence "Planning Activities and Development of Department", No. 22/2004, MoD Bulletin, October 29, 2004, now updated. It prescribes to follow the Financial Chapter of MoD by individual targets. The final objective thus becomes a specific indicator of defence spendings. This arrangement thus becomes a basic document for monitoring, evaluating and implementation of respective remedies. It will be tied with running Planning, Programming and Budgeting process. They both will share a common target database for data necessary for planning financial means. Its implementation should be accompanied by educational and schooling programmes for personnel involved, the author proposes.

This concept has been preparing since the early 2009. In short, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation must be increasingly prepared to intervene far beyond its borders. In the coming decade, NATO will have four central inter-related military missions. The first requirement is to "deter, prevent and defend" against aggression, so as to ensure the political independence and territorial integrity of NATO member states. The report insists on the need to send out military missions beyond the treaty area "when required to prevent an attack on the treaty area or to protect the legal rights and other vital interests of Alliance members". Any expeditionary mission must be based on the principles of the UN charter. Another key item is to cooperate better with those partners, and others worldwide, in order to tackle the new threats posed by cyber attacks, piracy, arms proliferation and energy supply insecurity and climate change. However, in order to achieve the new goals, NATO "must halt the precipitous decline in national defence spending", and to introduce reforms to make spending more efficient.

Military Intelligence plays important part in national defence, indicating particular kinds of potential threats to the Republic or Allied partners. Its effectiveness mainly consists in evaluating the security situation continuously and in exchanging of intelligence information between our services and the Allies, with the aim to detect any potential threats and to eliminate a possibility of surprise in time. According to Act No. 153/1994, concerning the intelligence services, its activities are strictly limited by law. It gains information from open sources (OSINT), by means of signal intelligence (SIGINT), human intelligence (HUMINT), and by using intelligence equipment and tools (IMINT, imagery intelligence). The author proposes to establish central organizational unit, in order to organize, assess, and evaluate individual intelligence branches, their intelligence support to individual target addressees. It should be allowed to reallocate both material and financial sources in form of proposals, reflecting developments of individual intelligence branches.

Mr. Nitsch-Nyč belongs also among those who were sentenced to jail in the 50s. Nevertheless, as a member of the notorious Military Counterintelligence, headed by ill-famed Gen. Reicin, he belongs among persons who participated in the so-called "unlawfulness", that is to say: provocation, disposal of "unsuitable" officers from the army, in a close cooperation with Soviet intelligence officers. He started his military career in old AustroHungarian monarchy, than he was enlisted as a volunteer in the pre-war Czechoslovak Army. During WWII he was arrested and sentenced to the concentration camp. In May 1945 he became a member of the Communist Party. After that he was appointed as an intelligence officer. He was arrested in 1952, accused and sentenced for deeds he did not commit. He was rehabilitated in the 60s, whereas people that were sentenced in political trials he helped to prepare were still in jails.

New technologies influence not only social advance, but also the development of armed forces. Present-time warfare is resolute, dynamic. In the 21st century, both low and high intensity conflicts, counterterrorist or stabilization operations might take place in urbanized areas, where casualties and material damages are high. New weaponry and technology make demands on military and professional training, self-control, psychic preparedness. In advance we must set rules governing the firing of weapons and use of force namely by soldiers involved in peacekeeping and counter-insurgency situations. Mental stress, emotional, or physical strain or tension of soldiers are manifested by fanaticism, looting, killing non-combatants, desertions or going away from military units without permission (AWOLs), depressed soldiers inflict wound on themselves, they misuse drugs or alcohol. The author cites factors increasing soldiers' resistance: high cohesion of units, tough training, relaxation, courageousness, high awareness of objectives of operations and war aims.

This article is discussing the role of the Internet in the Islamic terrorist movement. It describes how the nature of the Internet provides the perfect medium for terrorism. Major terrorist organizations now have their own production capability, ranging from video capture, to video editing, to distribution, but, these organizations also have an advanced understanding of the concepts of influence, information warfare, and the power of targeted messages. This is further highlighted by the fact that among al Qaeda's original organizational structure was a committee dedicated to publicity and the media. The internet plays the role as a means of propaganda for recruitment and fund-raising, shaping public opinion in the Muslim world, terrorist training and instruction, operational planning for attacks, communication and open source information.

As a former Austrian officer he was chosen for recruiting volunteers for the so-called Czech and Slovak Army in Russia. After the WWI he became a member of the newly created Czechoslovak Army. During Nazi occupation of Czech lands, he was arrested for his resistance activities. Fortunately, in prison he suffered from typhoid fever, so he was taken into hospital and therefore he was not executed. When WW II ended, he was falsely accused of leaking important information by military counter-intelligence which was firmly in hands of oncoming communists. After interrogations he was senteced for "active fight against the Bolsheviks" in Russian civil war. The Soviet security authorities deported him together with other condemned persons to Austrinan city Baden and then to the U.S.S.R. At the age of 60 he was sentenced to 25 years of imprisonment. In 1954 he died. After the Velver Revolution he was rehablitaded and promoted to the rank of Major General.

This article deals with the birth of a new concept in the field of the warfare-FORCE XXI, the long-terms vision that influenced all advanced militaries, among others the author introduces a list with names of programmes: USA (Land Warrior), Great Britain (FIST - Future Integrated Soldier Technology), Canada (ISSP - Integrated Soldier System Platform), Germany (IdZ - Infanterist der Zukunft), France (FELIN - Fantssin a Equipement et Liaison Intégrés), the Netherlands (SMP - Soldier Modernisation Programme), Norway (NORMANS - Norwegian Modular Artic Network Soldier), Denmark (Danish Soldier Modernisation), Belgium (BEST - Belgium Soldier Technology), Italy (Soldato Futuro), Portugal (Sodado do Futuro), Slovakia (PIBS - advanced combat individual system) Poland (Tytan). The author underlines fundamental changes within this course of study, both technical-implementation of new technologies and weaponry-and doctrinal. He also describes current situation within the Armed Forces of the Czech Republic.

The security environment is permanently changing. A national set of risks has increased after joining the EU and NATO and EU enlargement. The Czech Republic is obligated to integrate national security capabilities into NATO and the EU. To fulfil its responsibility, the Czech Republic ought to use the capabilities-based planning for further transformation of national security sector. This NATO concept ought to be in use not only within the MoD, but also at other ministries tied or responsible for national security. The national security sector must be planed, programmed, budgeted and transformed like a body. The article deals with the problem of unifying security concepts across Czech public administration. The author points out that our operational capabilities are influenced among others by the lack of labour force at the Czech national labour market.

To fulfil Czech obligation as an EU Battle Group Framework Nation according to the regulating document EU BG Training and Certification, the Czech Army is to certify that the CZE/SVK Battle Group EU meet the standards and criteria stated in Standards and Criteria for EU BG. It is recommended that the CZE/SVK Battle Group EU certification process should be analogous with NATO Response Force (NRF) certification procedure and practical methods. Further it is suggested that the CZE/SVK Battle Group EU certification procedure is divided into several evaluation procedures: preparation planning evaluation, war-fighting evaluation, and technical evaluation. Each procedure will be developed by specialized teams with representatives in the sub-working group to ensure that the different procedures harmonize. The views expressed in this assessment are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of EU Military Structure or the Czech Ministry of Defence. All information and data for this paper were drawn from unclassified sources. The written sources are listed in the matrix above.

The article is focused on the Czech military bases during mission abroad and introduces new term "Life Cycle of Military Base". Every system has its own successive stages through which it passes; concept that compares the cyclical nature of organizations, systems, is called life cycle. The Reach-Back concept divides lifetime of the military base into seven phases: Assignment (task, goals), Preparation, Proposal (draft), Designing, Building, Running and Cancelling. The definition and description of all phases of the Life Cycle of Military Bases is an important contribution to solving series of problems connected with designing, building, running and cancelling of military bases during mission abroad. Dividing into separate sections contributes to the well-mastered supervision of base, as it indicates factual structures of individual stages of daily routine of the base and thus it lowers the risks of neglecting some activities.

Many security experts are of the opinion that the global security situation has been going worse af ter September 11, 2001. Even though Balkan wars ended, in fact, there are high tensions tied with Kosovo?s proclamation of independence, or in similar state of affairs in Macedonia. In Iraq, there some elements of improving, but in Afghanistan there are a lot of problems, we must mention tensions in Iran concerning building its nuclear capacities and missile tests, Russian-Georgian conflict, which is reflected in the policy of NATO enlargement: Georgia, the Ukraine were not accepted to NATO alliance. The reviewer highly appreciates this anthology of security studies, with the same title as this article. Editor Vlastimil Galatík, published by Defence University Brno, 2008.

It is a point at which attacking forces are unable to continue their attack or even defend themselves, because do casualties, shortages of fuel, ammunition and rations, and sheer physical exhaustion. This sequel article deals with the theory of the operational art focusing on the culminating point operational concept. The article emanates from Carl von Clausewitz's ideas and concepts described in his book "On War", doctrinal publications analysis and study projects of the operational art theorists. It treats conditions influencing achievement of the culminating point on single levels of war-strategic, operational and tactical and highlights coherences and factors having fundamental influences on culmination. The article is accompanied by several graphs describing this theory in detail. Key words: Culmination, Culminating Point, Zeroing, Intelligence Preparation of the Battlespace, Campaign Planning and Developing Operations.

It is an information study about sociological research completed among Czech servicemen, former members of military missions abroad, under the aegis of the rector of the University of Defence. The research goal consisted in finding causal relationship between missions and breakup rates. Among others it was determined that for breakups were predispositions even before partners went to missions abroad. A total of 3 % stated they wanted to escape from family problems. Partnership after returning home broke up in 15.6 % of questioned veterans. Research should provide cornerstone data for a proposal of concrete measures for reducing divorces and partings. The stratified sample consists of 348 respondents from the ACR who took part at least in one mission abroad and were married, or lived in long-term partnership. Data collection lasted from July to October 2008.