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The article analyzes several key conclusions of US National Intelligence Council's study "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds", published in December 2012. Primarily it focuses on: the diffusion of global power influencing political, economic and security development on both global and regional scales; rising importance of the Asia-Pacific region for global economy and security; Sino-American security relations; the role that the United States and Europe should be played in the changing geopolitical reality. The conclusions offer the author's own interpretation of certain development trajectories, based on his earlier published monographs, studies and articles.

This article deals with selected security aspects of Israeli maritime border lines. It briefly depicts current organizational structure of the Israeli Navy. It gives an overview of equipment used to safeguard Israeli sovereignty from seaborne threats, including search and secure operations performed against anti-Israeli insurgent organizations and their trafficking lines. In connection to the Gaza Strip blockade, the article examines legitimacy of this controversial approach and its current international consequences. Last but not least, the article looks beyond the security extent of maritime borders and examines Israeli approach as a mean of spreading the national sovereignty over newly explored gas reserves in the eastern Mediterranean area.

In September 2011 the government approved the new Security Strategy of the Czech Republic. It was important that this document was discussed and elaborated with the participation of the security community, security professionals both from the army and civil institutions or schools; among others we must state the CEVRO institute or the CESES centre, Charles University Prague. The author familiarizes readers with its contents and the history of its genesis by means of polemics with individual items of this document. In addition to general statements, there should be concrete proposals, the authors supposes, for tangible precautions, which might help readers to comprehend proposed measures, and thus to open way to deeper understanding among wide public to security problems, i.e. impending threats and dangers.

Space applications and use of satellite data became an important tool for production and development of many companies and institutions, as well as indispensable part of our daily lives, when using e.g. satellite navigation or TV broadcasting. Proper functioning of those services, however, requires the security of space assets at the orbits, their ground stations and the transmition links. The basic threat for space assets is the growing number of debris at the orbits. Space Situation Awareness has a growing importance and sharing information among all main space actors becomes a pre-requisite. Efforts to agree on common guidelines to mitigate possible risks related to outer space activities are made both within the UN and the EU as well as among all space agencies.

After the year 1990 a total of 120 wars have taken place. The most appealing were those initiated by the USA, in which other friendly states´ve participated as well. No country has the right to invade its neighbour or over-run and annex another. There were many discussions in the world over the legacy of imposed interventions, under which conditions they are true and just. The study covers two dissimilar attitudes: the first one against Hussein's expansionist policy in 1991 and warfare after 9/11 2001. The legitimacy rests upon Resolutions of the United Nations Security Council that allow any nation to remove the aggressor by force. The author also mentions a series of wars, fought throughout the former Yugoslavia from 1991 to 1995, and then again from 1998 until 1999/2001.

Studies of the importance of culture have gained greater attention in the post-Cold War era. In present world, there are many fenomena that can't be explained in terms of neorealism. There is the consensus in national security policy studies that culture may significantly affect grand strategy and state behaviour. It limits behavioural choices, from which we could derive predictions about our strategic choice. This study is based among others upon Johnston's strategic culture concept related to three generations. The study is divided into five parts: at first the author introduces general concept of strategic culture, the second, third and fourth parts correspond to individual generations. In closing part the author explains his own understanding to this concept.

The purpose of this article is to inform on elements of military deception in NATO armies and overarching principles that make military deception successful. Deception Planning is an iterative process that should be considered as an inextricable part of the operational planning. The knowledge in the field of military deception in the Czech military is low; no operational deception plan has been prepared for foreign operations or any military exercise. Deception is widely appreciated as a powerful instrument of military operations, yet it is surprisingly neglected by both the Czech Army and Military Educational System. The author tries to encourage officers and members of higher staffs to study this subject.

One of main task while preparing new security documents is to identify, analyze and evaluate newly emerging, self-generating security threats. They menace cybernetic, economy, bank, and religious security. The special menace, as for inner security it is lobbyism. Cybernetic threat is today regarded as more dangerous than nuclear strike. The American lived through those experiences in Iraq. Another example is cyber attacks on Estonia in 2007 that swamped websites of Estonian organizations, including Estonian parliament, banks, ministries, newspapers and broadcasters.The attacks triggered a number of military organisations around the world (including NATO) to reconsider the importance of network security to modern military doctrine. There is a paradigm: the more modern country, the more risks are opened. The situation is complicated by the fact that in sophisticated society there is hard to identify attacking enemy. The author underlines that we are the last member nation in the EU that has no official CSIRT (Computer Security Incident Response Team) to react cyber /terrorist attracts.

Official objectives of war on terrorism are as follows: we must face theorist threats, prevent terrorist strikes; suppress the power of terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda. War on terrorism is not a classical or conventional warfare; the term is wide-ranging, covering longterm strategies of national importance. The war on terrorism and employed means are also a source of controversy. It is a question of adequacy of used tools. It is necessary to implement the new strategy of improving conditions in Muslim countries to eliminate their background supporting negative religious and political attitudes towards democracy. Outlined ways of "smoothing edges" in economical, social spheres can noticeably change hateful attitudes of Muslim population towards values of Western democratic society.

The term of "growing complex of threats" covers higher and higher probability of concatenation of various intercommoned, mutually tied factors reflecting structured technological and informational reality of global society, making their solving by traditional means of security system extremely difficult. "Crisis situation" represents more general problem of natural disasters or technology breakdowns that are influencing one another, that cause great distress or destruction, in an unexpected manner, activating subsequent threats of so far unforeseen threats. For that reason we must adapt Czech security system to new liquid, instant and indivisible complex threats.

The overall purpose of this paper is to describe the ways the Alliance and the also the Czech Army will apply the operational art tenets, conducting operations in the future. The current military problems cannot be solved without a deep understanding and knowledge of operational art. In order to improve military thinking within the Czech Army, it is recommended to study and apply operational art. The operational art forms a bridge between strategy defining the political aims of war and tactics, fighting the battles. Commanders and staff officers should study operational art seriously, systematically and with all their efforts. The author deals with current state of present operational art to inform on new developments in this field of military art. The article broadens the vision and deepens the insights of its readers. All information and data for this paper were drawn from unclassified sources.

The article presents six more or less structured analytical methods that are or could be employed in intelligence analysis. This type of analysis, one part of the intelligence cycle, is understood as "the process of evaluating data for reliability, validity, and relevance; integrating and analysing it; converting the product of this effort into a meaningful whole, which includes assessment of events and implications of the information collected". The set of presented methods includes: link analysis, opportunity analysis, analogy, linchpin analysis, analysis of competing hypothesis and alternative scenarios. The study doesn't stop with presenting those methods; it also explains which type of reasoning (inductive, deductive or abductive) is used when working with each particular method. In broad terms, the article tries to shed light on intelligence analysis and its specifics. The reader should obtain better understanding their usefulness in the daily work of intelligence analyst.

This article aims at building a bridge upon a gap, which separates academic sphere and intelligence community in the issue of predictive methodology. The author tries to accomplish this objective by presenting intelligence predictive methods based on open-source literature research. First, the question of uncertainty and probability in prediction is introduced (Cynefin template). Then follows basic introduction to predictive methods in civil and military intelligences, so that the reader might grasp the fundamentals of early warning systems. The academics and above all journalists should know the risks and perils in forming intelligence forecasts, estimates, foresight and warning scenarios, e.g. the so-called Black Swan scenario, the author explains potentials failures of the Delphi method. This study ought to be regarded as an introductory to predictive intelligence concurrently done by governmental agencies for purposes of national security and defence.

Security situation has been changing all over the world, so has in regional territories. It is necessary for us to create systematically new safety culture with regards to contemporary knowledge and experiences. The Czech Republic contribution to the safety of democratic states must meet their expectations; prospective security studies will have to bring new knowledge and technology which, first of all, will increase the level of general capabilities of the Czech Republic and at the same time to take into consideration the needs of national economy and Czech environment. Capital investments into security research are necessary as a basic input for the safety preparedness level of the CR. For these purposes it is desirable to establish security research that will be able to produce ideas and technologies which will sustain and renew the Czech Republic safety in changing conditions, among others taking note of a Seventh Framework Programme of EU for research,

The security is not very often mentioned in direct relation to the quality of life and sustainable development. The author introduces the security as their substantial element; he would like to offer an interesting approach towards examining mutual ties between both concepts. In fact, it is not a new idea; common knowledge that peace is more comfortable for life and culture, for economic development, is certainly older than quality of life concept. But, after an easygoing attitude to international background in the 90's, today we again pay our attention to the security problems, even in a wider spectrum, in varied contexts: from changes in world's climate, to differences between rich North and poor South, over international terrorism, efforts for integrated European position towards Common Foreign and Security Policy, NATO, security policy of the Czech Republic, till the individual feelings of safety.

The major topic of this article is the problem of radical Islam in the context of contemporary as well as historical development in Europe. In the course of several chapters the author describes basic facts of the modern phenomenon of Islamisation, impending over Europe. His study is supported from several sources, e.g. Gadhafi M., Islam taking over Europe (2006); or reports issued by the Netherlands Security and Intelligence Service (2005); Swiss Country Report on Islamisation (2007), etc. There are over 50 million Muslims in Europe, if Turkey is added to the EU, Europe will have another 50 million Muslims. When terrorism can be considered as a danger, Islam should be considered as a risk to generate such a danger. The democratic state is fully entitled to diagnose any kind of "side effects" as a result of Islamic preaching. This is not judging the religion but its effects on the system. The solution is long-lasting: to support cultural integration, because only a few European Muslims are involved politically, or take part in terrorist attacks.

This study is based on a paper presented at the conference with the same heading taking place on January 8, 2009. First, the authors enumerate starting points of Czech defence and security polity together with key factors influencing their developments. The whole scale of new threats-from WMD and ballistic proliferation to cyber attack and even non intentional threats like climate change and pandemia-are to be addressed not only in NATO but also in the EU. Existing states of affairs are gradually reflected by Czech security and defence documents: Security Strategy 1999, 2001, 2003; Military Strategy 1999, 2002, 2004, 2008. In this historical context we joined NATO defence alliance and took part in peacekeeping missions abroad. Previous twenty years when we lived in peace could be regarded as a challenge to build Czech statehood. There is no time like a present. Only the future will show us whether we mastered it as much as we could.

This article is discussing the role of the Internet in the Islamic terrorist movement. It describes how the nature of the Internet provides the perfect medium for terrorism. Major terrorist organizations now have their own production capability, ranging from video capture, to video editing, to distribution, but, these organizations also have an advanced understanding of the concepts of influence, information warfare, and the power of targeted messages. This is further highlighted by the fact that among al Qaeda's original organizational structure was a committee dedicated to publicity and the media. The internet plays the role as a means of propaganda for recruitment and fund-raising, shaping public opinion in the Muslim world, terrorist training and instruction, operational planning for attacks, communication and open source information.

As the military's current fight against terrorists and insurgents does not follow the templates of the past, it requires innovative, adaptive thinking. This article summarises the main ideas of the essay "We the People are not the Center of Gravity in an Insurgency" by Maj. Mark P. Krieger, published in Military Review No. 4, 2007. A COG could be characterized as a source of power from which a military force derives its freedom of action, physical strength, will to act. The definition is important namely when military planners try to identify enemy COGs. There is a single COG at the operational level; the tactical level of war has decisive points. COGs organize and direct critical capabilities, physical or psychological. An insurgency's case is its strategic COG, its organization is operational COG, and the people are a decisive point at the tactical level. The population is important in an insurgency, because the people are a tangible to target, but it is not a COG. Attacking an insurgency?s organization will weaken the strategic COG that becomes vulnerable to attack and destruction.

This paper discusses the methods of integrated risk management during evaluating the risk rates of military activities. Risk management is an important tool for effective implementation of secure surroundings. And vice versa, the level of security determines requirements concerning the transformation of armed forces, because this security level plays one of key roles in its implementation. The authors depict individual phases of integrated risk management that ought to be applied not only at the level of military units and groupings, but also during the whole process of security evaluation of acquisitions for missions or regions. The acceptation of subsidiarity principle means that this sort of risk management is a starting base for safeguarding global security. At the end the authors enumerate fundamental principles to be fulfilled first.

The world's leading climate scientists poses fundamental questions of human security, survival and the stability of nation states. While state weakness and destabilizing internal conflicts are a more likely outcome than interstate war, climate change will be a stress multiplier for all nations and societies, especially those already at risk from ethnic and religious conflicts, economic weakness and environmental degradation. Strategic planners ought to include worst-case climate-change scenarios in their contingency planning, as climate change is set to rank with terrorism, pandemic diseases and major war as one of the principle challenges to security in the twenty-first century. Source: A. Dupont, Survival, Issue 3, 2008, adapted.

The author of this article considers the prospective changes in the development, character, missions and tasks of the Army of the Czech Republic, Those changes are deduced from the changing security environment and long-term development trends. To meet new demands, we must continue in building interoperability and compatibility. The battlefield operations will be planned and controlled by the systems of "Network Centric Warfare" and "Reach Back Operations". It will not be necessary for a commander to be in physical contact with operational theatre. Electronical high speed intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, reconnaissance will enable the high pace of military operations (together with common analyses, integration of collected data, evaluation of enemy's intents and activities). This will enable to build a credible defence, in the frame of collective security system, hand in hand with other NATO allies.

Anti-ballistic missiles are missiles designed to counter enemy's ballistic missiles. First, the author compares strategic patterns reflecting various eras of the former bipolar world. Their mutual balance of that time could be described as Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD). As long as MAD was a fact of life, the ABM Treaty fulfilled its important function as a cornerstone of strategic stability. Keeping nuclear arsenals at a level which is not even justifiable is selfcontradictory, as the military strategy and targeting policy is based on the capability of the other side, not on its intentions. Today's Russian policy is shaped by the status-driven desire to deal with the United States from a position of power-related symmetry and strategic parity, by negating the unique position of the United States. The American ballistic missile defence policy used to be also a central element of their containment strategy towards China. However, at present, Ballistic Missile Defence (BDM) sets as a top-priory the defence against the so-called rough states, rather than against Moscow or Beijing.

The subject of this comprehensive study: the main features of global risk society can be embodied by ecology crises, global financial crises, threat of terrorism. The article is presented as a report to military community and audience, with the underlying focus on terrorism. The author is mapping the global future in the first two decades of this century. As a small country we must pay attention to the developments in the worlds leading powers: the U.S., China, Russia, last but not least, within the EU. Those themes also present individual headings of this study. He treats energy, demography, peace, security, good neighbourly relations, cooperation between states that are most desirable goals we want to reach. In a way, as the main actor of worlds security situation till 2020 is identified Islamist terrorism (radical Islamists, Al Qaeda). At the end Mr. Balabán recalls the former "Security Policy of the Czech Republic" released ten years ago, reminding us the necessity to be prepared for the worst scenarios.

The author follows the mainstream economics, i.e. leading economics of defence policy, ranging from economics of defence in the nuclear age, via economics of Iraq conflict, to current fight against terrorism. New paradigm must be drawn, taking into account source management, the distribution of economics weight of individual national economies of all countries participating in the fight against global terrorism.