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The article deals with the issue of identifying required material reserves, also referred to as strategic or emergency reserves. These reserves are managed by state authority as part of national crisis preparedness. The article explores how scenarios can be used as a method for planning, i.e. determining adequate, realistic, and affordable material reserves. A scenario-based analysis, well proven in the defence planning domain, is identified as a method offering a high degree of analytical rigor and traceability of resulting requirements. Selected planning scenarios clearly must reflect national threat/hazard and risk assessments. They also have to reflect other important national policies, such as those governing economy, industry, health care, or environment. The illustrative conduct of the initial steps of the proposed method is demonstrated using Latvia's security policy circumstances.

At first, we are familiarised with terms of extremism, Romanies (Gypsies), anarchists, neo-Nazis, then the author introduces possible picture of security situation at the turn of second and third decades of 21st century. He believes that in every country there is a limited ability to integrate ethnic groups by majority. As soon as the limits are exceeded, problems begin. His scenario ends with a pessimistic vision: increasing tensions will ask army deployment, but even local armed forces are not able to enforce law and order, therefore the government must ask for help neighbouring states.

This article describes the question of CBRN and their possible abuses in civil aviation. The problem includes security analysis identified by the Civil Aviation as the most significant class of this group-biological agents. The authors pay them special attention. The second part of paper contains model situation in case of emergency: virus variola (smallpox) attack in a terminal of medium-size international airport. Depending on the detailed properties of virus, transport hub and afflicted area, there are two versions of attack- for summer and winter timetable, according to expected progress of virus extension, and follow-up arrangements.

The article explains defence planning of armed forces deployment that ought to by the base for all long haul visions and concept texts for army development and its operational employment. Operational scenarios and concepts form together key elements of defence planning process, both factors enable to military organizations not only to identify future security challenges but also to react to challenges in being. It is not contrary to the so-called capability planning process as this is a manly armed force potential backing our ability to face threads and risks in the future. The example of the United States involved in three asymmetric conflicts is a warning example showing the necessity of the complex and coordinated strategical approaches.

The security environment is permanently changing. A national set of risks has increased after joining the EU and NATO and EU enlargement. The Czech Republic is obligated to integrate national security capabilities into NATO and the EU. To fulfil its responsibility, the Czech Republic ought to use the capabilities-based planning for further transformation of national security sector. This NATO concept ought to be in use not only within the MoD, but also at other ministries tied or responsible for national security. The national security sector must be planed, programmed, budgeted and transformed like a body. The article deals with the problem of unifying security concepts across Czech public administration. The author points out that our operational capabilities are influenced among others by the lack of labour force at the Czech national labour market.

The purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable of the worst case scenario for the global future post-modern society. The analysis addresses the main features of global risk society, human suffering, and loss of life from natural catastrophes, man-made catastrophes, economic losses, peak-oilcrises impacts, threat of terrorism, radical Islam, fragile states, etc. Important are the consequences of the end of the Vestfal system and global climate change. There is substantial evidence to indicate that significant global warming will occur during the 21st century. The research suggests that once temperature rises above some threshold, adverse weather conditions could develop relatively abruptly. Drought persists for most of the decade in critical agricultural regions and in the water resource regions for major population centres in Europe. As fertility shrivels, societies get older-and much of Europe are set to get older than any functioning societies have ever been. To avoid collapse, European nations will need to take immigrants at a rate no stable society ever attempted. Europe will be significantly more Islamic.

This opening study is written by two authors, members of Centre for Social and Economic Strategies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University Prague, which is an interdisciplinary research and education unit engaged in the development of theory, methodology and practice of exploring possible futures, and the application of analyses and forecasts in decision making. The authors propose to supplement prognostic scenarios by the so-called wild cards that represent something unpredictable, extra players or actors taking part in a global politics. They compare wild cards of 2001 with the present-day situation, and then predict state of affairs till 2040, among others, the islamisation of Europe and hispanisation of the United States. The purpose of this is to promote dialogues between military and security experts, politicians, civil servants, civil sector activists, as well as individual citizens.