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This article describes the basic terms used in prognostics (future studies, forecasting the future, prognosis, prediction, expert) and introduces selected prognostic methods and techniques which could be applied in security area (brainstorming, focus group, trend extrapolation, Delphi method, scenarios etc.). The basic classifications and prognosis typologies are mentioned as well. Particular phases of prognosis making are described too. For the Czech security community the prognosis making has an important potential whose outcomes (of particular surveys) should be manifest in following years. This text has only tried to outline selected methods and techniques for their potential application.

One of the objectives of the project for organization development titled "Trends in development the Armed Forces of Czech Republic in relation to the development of the security environment", is to identify trends in career management and life-long education in the MoD. The article presents partial findings of the substudy focused at proper use of management methods to execute primary data collection and to construct complete problem formulation for both preparation and implementation of Career Order as a part of human resources management in the Ministry of Defense. There is summary of methods and tools used for problems formulation in the first part, the second part shows how these methods are applied in practice. Based on results, the conclusion is then formulated depicting the primary problem of preparation and implementation of the career system.

The article presents partial conclusions of the questionnaire survey on "Problem Solving in the Defence Department of the Czech Republic". First, possible types of the addressed problems and methods for solving the ill-structured problems are characterized. The aim of the empirical research, whose findings are presented, was to identify the ill-structured problems that are solved in the CR Defence Department, and to find out the extent of the use of the methods for problem solving within the mentioned organization. In order to collect data, a semi-structured questionnaire was developed. The total of 135 questionnaires provided data for evaluation. The respondents from the researched organization mostly meet the problems which are related to a planning process, also to a change of an organizational structure, training preparation and processing of internal regulations. The methods, which are used to solve the quoted problems in the Defence Department, are expert panel discussion, interview, brainstorming, wargaming (pros and cons analysis), SWOT analysis, analysis of concerned parties and an objective tree.The rules and recommendations for solving ill-structured problems in the CR Department of Defence are defined, based on the found out information, toward the end of the article.

Defense planning and research has to engage with questions about future developments quite often. Solutions to these questions tend to be hazy due to (I) the missing data, or due to (II) the necessity to build long-term prognoses, which are - by their very nature - only remotely related to any current or historical empirical cases. Under these conditions counterfactuals and their specific - future- oriented - form: scenarios, offer a valuable tool. Nevertheless, counterfactuals and scenarios, due to their limited empirical embeddedness, demand explicit and rigorous application of a theory. The article highlights often overlooked resemblance of scenarios and counterfactuals and derives from this fact some methodological implications for scenario building enterprise. Beyond that, it aims at demonstrating possible contributions as well as obstacles inherent for the use of scenarios and counterfactuals in our defense policy debates.

The research described in this paper was conducted in the framework of institutional research project Strategic Alternatives (STRATAL) within the Centre for Security and Military Strategic Studies of University of Defence, The Czech Republic. Article assesses the development of Czech Defence policy in 2017 and first half of 2018. Authors analyse key change drivers in external environment (security threats, EU strategic autonomy, transatlantic link). In second step authors evaluate measures taken in political, military, administrative, economical and societal domain in response to key change drivers and highlight related risks to effective defence policy formulation and implementation.

The article examines the different approaches of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the United States Armed Forces towards Electronic Warfare, the military activity in the Electromagnetic Environment. All reference materials used for this analysis, including the specifics of the Army of the Czech Republic's approach toward the subject area, were obtained from unclassified military sources. It describes, explains and visualizes the individual approaches, and by their comparison it identifies and subsequently emphasizes cases of divergence, including non-compliance in established Czech terms, definitions and abbreviations. It highlights the obsolescence of the still valid military publication Electronic Warfare in the Army of the Czech Republic, the use of which, in its current form, has already been deemed as unfounded and counterproductive. It presents proposals and recommendations for unification of approach towards the Electronic Warfare issues within the Army of the Czech Republic, in order to ensure consistency with the current North Atlantic Treaty Organization policy related to activities in the Electromagnetic Environment. It contributes to better understanding of doctrinal views on the role of Electronic Warfare in execution of combat support tasks in contemporary military operations, thus creating preconditions for elimination of associated misunderstandings in terms of the Army of the Czech Republic.

The authors' intention is to present findings to which they came while analysing the implementation process of the EU Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), especially in the area of EU operations planning and development of capabilities required for achieving the EU level of ambition. Only issuing the EU Global Strategy in 2016 and its subsequent implementation process seems to be a momentum for specifying commitments stemming from PESCO. At present, there is a list of common binding commitments which 25 of 28 EU member states have signed to. This list includes specific commitments as for development of required capabilities needed for achieving expected objectives of CSDP operations. Nevertheless, a very critical point related to the current PESCO implementation process is whether the present level of EU member states integration allows fully completing all highly ambitious commitments as declared by political leaders.

This paper is derived from "Exploring the Future Operating Environment", published in Joint Force Quarterly, April 2018. The article was presented at the Defense & Strategy 2018 conference, which took place at the University of Defense in Brno on 4-6 June 2018.

The article deals with the experimentation in the military domain. It is anchored by the experiment explanation in the NATO context paying special attention to the capability development. Basic principles and terminology of design, execution and analysis is discussed in the following part employing 5W approach. The main focus is aimed at the experiments' examples from the NATO and Nations environment. The article is closed by the explanation of the role of the experiment in the decision making process under the uncertainty in the complex environment.

The authors present the results of the research on the Lessons Learned process applied within the Ministry of Defence of the Czech Republic. The main purpose of the article is to introduce the proposal of the process optimization to readers. The paper describes the process in detail, and this description is used to identify procedural shortcomings exploiting the process analysis method in terms of factual and logical accuracy of the process. The following part of the article presents the results of the comparative analysis of the chosen Lessons Learned processes. The result of the comparative analysis allows authors to make in an innovative way suitable recommendations for optimizing the current state of the whole process of Lessons Learned. Based on the analysis of the educational programs, the paper proposes to include the subject of the Lessons Learned process into the learning outcomes, especially from the perspective of competency based approach to education.

The article analyses activities of geographical support in missions abroad. The proposals for adjustment of processes and equipment during a preparation phase of perspective deployment of mobile geographic support unit were created on a basis of author's knowledge and experience, studies of documents and a discussion of participants in missions. The ISAF mission (currently Resolute Support mission) represents a model on which a future form of geographic support of national contingents in missions abroad is being developed. The brought up results represent a recommendation for further development of geospatial support of AČR in missions. The main conclusion is defining a need of position for a geographer within a mid-sized contingent and at a same time making use of a new mobile geographic set GeMoZ-C, which already complies with a majority of mentioned remarks.

The general trend of weight gain, decreasing physical fitness and health complications in the general population is also reflected in the recruitment of new candidates. Their physical readiness is expected to be high. The aim of this study was to verify whether or not the physical condition of the soldiers entering the army during the 2000-2017 test of physical fitness actually deteriorated or not. The results for the assessed period in the monitored parameters indicate that some components of physical fitness are copying the general trend and showing a slight deterioration. Yet, in general, it can not be said that the fitness of new soldiers is declining, as some of its components show a slight increase.

Within the context of evaluation system of education quality in career courses that are organized at the Center for Security and Military Strategic Studies of the University of Defence in Brno, the article deals with course evaluation questionnaires. It demonstrates benefits of introducing online questionnaires, and a persistence of responses sets that are invalid in terms of internal imbalance. To filter out this undesirable natural phenomenon, a method was proposed for determining the consistency of responses sets. The outcomes lead to the goal to enhance quality as well as quantity of responses to evaluation questionnaires. In terms of quality, the intention is to continue filtering out invalid responses sets using the proposed method. In terms of quantity, the intention is to motivate the course participants to fill the evaluation questionnaire by dividing it in parts, so that they can experience the changes based on their responses yet during their course.

This article analyzes strategic engagement of the Russian Federation and the United States of America in the South Caucasus in four phases of development from the end of the Cold War until present day. The first phase covers early nineties, the second is from mid-nineties to 2003, the third from 2004 to 2008 and the fourth from 2009 to 2016/2017. There are three key trends during the examined period. First, Russia has permanent strategic interests in the South Caucasus due to maintaining its own state security and securing the position of the most prominent external actor in the region. Second, Russia's weakness and active engagement of the US/NATO are barriers to realizing Russia's state interests. Third, the South Caucasus is strategically more significant to Russia than the US/NATO.

This article deals with the phenomenon of Czech foreign fighters in the Ukrainian conflict, mostly from the point of view of the propagandist use and from the point of view of the Czech penal law. Both issues are interconnected, because according to the Czech law, service in foreign armies or in terrorist entities can be penalised. On the other hand, foreign fighters can be assessed as an important propagandist element and their participation in the conflict can strengthen the political position of the warring party. This tension between these legal impacts and the propagandist use creates the main theme of this article. The concept of hybrid warfare frames the current development. The author comes to the conclusion that the legal consequences pose only a limited obstacle for the propagandist use.

The issue of terrorism is becoming increasingly important on the level of social, economic, political and security. The threat of terrorism affects at the same time, societal and cultural events. Professional and academic discussion addresses the causes and possible consequences of this phenomenon. To understand the implications of terrorism, it is necessary to look at this issue from the perspective of terms of its financing. This review study aims to define the term financing of terrorism on the one hand, but also to identify possible sources of financing of terrorism, including the most used payment methods by terrorist organizations. This study also leads a discussion on the efforts and effectiveness of the various authorities in the fight for detecting terrorism, especially in relation to the detection of its financial flows. The study also defines the possible pitfalls in the fight against terrorism and detecting its sources of financing and attempts to outline possible alternatives while increasing success in this fight.

The purpose of this analysis is to trace contemporary position of recent war veterans, members of missions abroad after 1989 after they retired. Above it concentrates on their problem on home labour market, eventually on psychic disorders, negative after-effects or syndromes, possible assistance and support on the part of state, eventually of Czech Ministry of Defence. The article is divided into two parts. The first one analyses accessible statistical data concerning participants in foreign missions and at the same time collected data serve for drafting hypothesis tied with a research segment of this paper. The second part of this study evaluates results reached, based upon anonymous questionnaires completed by retired new war veterans in the period from December 4, 2009, till January 25, 2010

The article brings outcomes from the critical analysis of interaction between planning by objectives and capability planning. The analysis is based on the assumption that the strategic decision-making process should be assisted by a systemic tool, enabling a financial assessment of capabilities, identified as a prerequisite for accomplishing politico-military ambitions. Taking into account the current planning system, as implemented within the Ministry of Defence, the planning by objectives might become this tool. However, for providing an efficient planning by objectives, it is necessary to derive relevant findings from the capability planning, which basically includes data on capability assessment, identified capability shortfalls and their prioritisation. Therefore, findings from capability planning process are a keystone for conceiving objectives for the area of capability development. Both capability planning and planning by objectives are to be seen as communicating conveyances, where a level of mutual interactions significantly influences effectiveness of defence performance management.
The analysis is aimed at identification and description of discrepancies hampering an efficient interconnection between planning by objectives and capability planning and, as a conclusion, the analysis proposes a definition of the core problem which causes respective discrepancies.

The article reviews contemporary traditional approaches towards the evaluation of ground military vehicles and equipment, oriented on the role and potential of top-ranking officials in this area. The author promotes the introduction of some electronic Log Book for monitoring and rating the operational data of the military equipment, with the help of new General Packet Radio Service module, to improve the effectiveness of operational system, maintenance and savings.

The purpose of this paper is to define cyberterrorism phenomenon with the use of available documents, reports, and expert texts, and to evaluate its role and occurrence in contemporary world's events. The cyberterrorism is very often discussed nowadays, but there is a total lack of any consensus as far as a precision definition is concerned. The critique of current state is summarized at the end of the final chapter, describing leading causes of present situation, i.e. a situation when the cyberterrorism is discussed, politicised, all repeatedly underline its dangerousness, but in practice no cyber attract has occurred.

In 2007 and 2010, this Czech Military Review Vojenské rozhledy published several articles, discussing analytical thinking and analytical methodologies in the field of military intelligence. The authors among others mentioned the methodology ACH, Analysis of Competing Hypotheses. The methodology is not suitable only for intelligence, but it can be used further for solving a variety of military decision-making problems. The article in its first part describes ACH philosophy, including some academic considerations both by supporters and critics to this methodology. The second part demonstrates an example of its implementation and usage during support other problems tied with decision-making in defence planning process. The method is simple to explain, but difficult to introduce to real practice. The article explains both the theory and modifications of ACH and underlines some pitfalls connected with putting methodology into practice.

The paper outlines several recommendations for strengthening the institutional framework of the analytical support function for credible defence management. Recommendations are drawn based on the outcome of the institutional research project named Strategic Alternatives conducted by the Centre for Security and Military Strategic Studies of University of Defence (CSMSS). The multi-objective research focuses on organisational arrangement of the analytical support function within the overall ministry of defence organisational architecture of several countries (Canada, Norway, Sweden) as well as the NATO structure and management (in this case, the main focus embraces the analytical support to defence planning). Analytical support to defence decision making process in these countries enjoys a long-term tradition which goes back to the period of WWII. The way the analytical function is understood is highly relevant also for the enhancement of credible defence management in the Czech Republic and its Ministry of Defence.

This article deals with the research of the internationalization of conflicts, trying to examine this phenomenon from the theoretical perspective and as a definition. Then the term of internationalization of conflict is conceptualized in order to be applied to a chosen internationalized internal armed conflict. The text also deals with various actors intervening in the internationalized conflict. They are divided into external and internal actors, while their interventions during civil war can be multilateral or unilateral. The concept of the conflict internationalization is also compared with the concept of the proxy war. The closeness of both terms can be confusing for many researchers and their division is one of the important outcomes of this article. There is also a typology of internationalized internal armed conflict types in the text as well as identification of reasons for military actions against a neighbouring state in civil war. At the end, two case studies of Syrian and Yemeni civil wars are introduced to the reader in the framework of the conflict internationalization concept. The text itself is a conference contribution and it has no ambition of bringing new scientific findings and extending knowledge. Rather, it presents a general survey of the examined phenomenon, which can be developed and researched by social sciences based on case studies.

The global security environment brings forward different and surprising challenges for the armed forces, which require a good training and preparation. One way of sorting out the endeavour is using scenarios, the concept used extensively in the military field, the military field being the initiator of this concept. Military scenario development is the subject of this article, which is going to bring some essential characteristics and propose a working option for elaborating a scenario. The final aim is to help military planners have a good working procedure when developing a scenario in order to create a document updated with warfare evolution and operational planning process ready to respond to all risks and threats. The scenario is a way used by military structures at all levels of military art (strategical, operational and tactical) to get in contact with a probable unknown situation, to assimilate it and to sort it out. The article focuses on the scenario development process and proposes stages and activities that should be followed by a joint operational group when tasked with preparing a scenario.

The paper discusses the correlation between methodologies of conflict analysis and dynamics of international security environment and highlights the need to tailor these methodologies to the rapid sequencing of world events. The analytical approach starts with an overview on the general theory of conflict, whereupon the author focuses on the most widely used models of contemporary conflict analysis and summarizes the way they approach the same conflict, namely the recent events in Ukraine, in order to illustrate the advantages and disadvantages of each model. The final part of the paper develops, instead of conclusions, the correlation between the two analysed items and the way in which specific components of the methodologies can be adapted to the development of main characteristics of the international security environment.

The text deals with the conflict analysis and the use of typology within its framework. The author sums up the most relevant methodological approaches and tries to highlight their limits in the analysis of the current conflicts, which have by far more different characteristic features than in the past. In modern military conflicts, the states often use private military companies and create illegal armed formations. Quite often, the conflict parties have a varied character and one can observe chaotic alliances of state and non-state actors with different interests and different views on the projection of power and the use of armed force. The text highlights the necessity of adaptation of the current methodological approaches or at least their components and the development and changes which take place in contemporary conflicts.

The future security environment through 2035 and beyond will likely be increasingly complex and both present challenges and offer opportunities to NATO military forces. Analysis of the future security environment indicates that forces will likely face challenges that could unfold in an exponentially accelerated and increasingly complex fashion. As trends converge in the future, there are twelve likely instability situations that could reach a threshold requiring the Alliance's use of military forces, including: weapons of mass destruction/effect use, conventional war, escalatory use of force, hybrid war, unconventional war/terrorism, global commons disruption, critical infrastructure attack, cyberattack, governance challenges, endangerment of civilian populations, pandemic disease, and natural/man-made disasters. However, there are also many opportunities that NATO military forces could seize in the future, including building and strengthening relationships, addressing emerging challenges, capitalising on innovative technology and ideas to maintain the military edge, and understanding and influencing the human aspects of conflict. Ultimately, to keep the operational edge today and in the future, NATO joint forces and partners will need to continually evolve, adapt, and innovate to improve their ability to act together comprehensively across all domains to communicate and achieve the political-military objectives of the Alliance.

The paper deals with cyber security, cyber defence and operations in cyber space. It follows earlier performed analysis of cyber defence tasks and proposes distribution of competencies among key players. The required capabilities are derived from tasks determined by legislation, NATO and EU commitments and earlier developed strategic and operational scenarios. Comparing required capabilities and an actual state, a solution harmonizing defence in cyber space with defence of the Czech Republic and ensuring the cyber space defence and integration cyber capabilities into common operations conducting is proposed.

Article deals with analysis and description of defence-industrial cooperation of V4 countries from the beginning of nineties of the 20th century up to 2016. The goal of this text is presentation of findings relating to achieved degree of cooperation, where besides realized cooperation (its outcomes are real products) and political aspects (as determining mechanism and framework of whole partnership) attention is also paid to the causes as a driving force of past and current state. In conclusion, author assesses the most problematic issues of defenceindustrial cooperation of V4 countries and also obstacles of their deeper EU involvement, which can be used as a more suitable framework for anchoring regional partnership in sector of defence industry. Author also outlines areas of potential future cooperation of Visegrad partners.

The article discusses advanced aspects in urban operations for presumed military robotics applications. The rise of city population and increasing number of cities stands new treats for warfare. First part of the article reminds steep rise of population and populated urban areas, dangers for today's deployed troops are shortly discussed in the second part, outlining some features there. Results lead to a possible solution of upgrading combat-space awareness, multiplying firepower capacity and combat support. Two examples of Unmanned Ground Vehicles in next part present the possible way of future development and finally conclusion outlines required characteristics for these UGVs during urban operations.